5月19日，美国遭遇"股债汇"三杀。截至券商中国记者发稿时，纳指期货跌1.59%，标普500指数期货的跌幅也 超过1%。热门科技股美股盘前走低，特斯拉跌超4%，英伟达跌3.6%，超威半导体跌超3%，亚马逊跌超2%， 苹果公司跌1.7%。此前，穆迪评级以"巨额财政赤字和利息成本攀升"为由下调了美国政府信用评级。 美元、美股、美债，同步杀跌！ "在持续不断、资金匮乏的财政大手笔政策势将加速的背景下，美国评级被下调并不令人意外，"富兰克林邓普 顿投资解决方案副首席投资官Max Gokhman表示。"随着大型投资者——包括主权投资者和机构投资者——开 始逐步将美国国债换成其他避险资产，债务偿还成本将继续攀升。不幸的是，这可能会给美国债券收益率带来 危险的熊陡螺旋，进一步给美元带来下行压力，并降低美国股市的吸引力。" "市场对穆迪下调美国信用评级的影响持谨慎态度。他们担心这会导致美国资产的抛售。"东海东京情报实验室 的市场分析师Shuutarou Yasuda说，评级下调的时机很糟糕。 富国银行策略师Michael Schumacher和Angelo Manolatos在一份报告中告诉客户，他们预计"受穆迪下调评级影 ...

金十数据5月19日讯，美国财长贝森特周日表示，如果各国不"真诚地"谈判，关税税率将回到4月2日宣 布的水平。瑞讯银行高级分析师伊佩克•奥兹卡德克斯亚表示："这意味着，仅仅一周前的市场乐观情绪 随时可能被打破。意识到抱有乐观情绪可能为时过早，应该会引发投资者重返避险资产。" 分析师：关税风险或让投资者重返避险资产 ...

据媒体报道，美国财政部长贝森特周日发出严厉警告，表明若各国不"本着诚意谈判"，美国将恢复特朗普4月2日宣布的最高关税 水平。这标志着美国在贸易谈判中正采取更为咄咄逼人的立场。 周一，现货黄金亚市盘初涨超1%，升破3230美元/盎司。 美国贸易谈判态度骤然强硬 "一些国家的税率是10%，一些则大幅更高，"Bessent对媒体表示。如果"你不想谈判，那么关税将回弹到4月2日的水平"。据报 道，各国将收到Bessent的信函，明确说明如果不认真谈判将面临的最高关税率。 美国发起的贸易战又有升温迹象，黄金作为避险资产已应声上涨。 这种强硬态度与特朗普最近宣称各国正"争相"与华盛顿谈判的说法形成鲜明对比。不过，当地时间5月16日，特朗普也表示，未来 两到三周内，美国可能会单方面对许多贸易伙伴设定新的关税税率。特朗普称，美国缺乏与所有贸易伙伴通过谈判达成协议的能 力。 特朗普称，"虽然有'150个国家'希望达成协议，但不可能与所有国家会面。我认为我们会给出公平的税率，想要与那么多国家见 面并谈判是不可能的。" 特朗普4月2日宣布对近乎所有进口商品征收10%基本关税，同时对数十个贸易伙伴加征"对等关税"，一度引发全球金融市 ...

价格的下跌也引发了避险资产还能否避险的讨论，这直接影响 到投资者的决策。 作者：胡艳明 封图：图虫创意 2025年5月15日上午，肖文在手机银行上买了20克黄金，价格739元/克。 早前，肖文看着国内黄金价格一路上涨而后悔没有入手。这次，他选择在价格下跌的交易日果断入 手。 近期，国际黄金价格出现较大幅度波动。5月14日，国际黄金价格持续下行，现货黄金失守3190美 元/盎司，跌破 3180美元/盎司，日内跌幅约2.24%，创4月15日以来的新低；COMEX（纽约商品 交易所）黄金期货当日下跌2.07%，收于3180.7美元/盎司；5月15日，黄金价格继续剧烈波动，现 货黄金盘中一度跌近1.80%，并跌破3130美元/盎司，此后出现V型反弹，收于3239.6美元/盎司。 价格的下跌也引发了避险资产还能否避险的讨论，这直接影响到投资者的决策。 金价回调后 肖文几年前就尝试在手机银行客户端买黄金，他最早买的时候是400元/克，但是只买了4克，这两 年黄金价格的飞涨让他后悔不已。 肖文告诉记者："一路观望一路涨，尤其是今年4月初，国内黄金价格曾经在740元/克一度跌到720 元/克，没想到后续又快速上涨到830元/ ...

Group 1 - The core value of gold remains unchanged despite fluctuations in price due to international market and geopolitical influences, serving as a universal currency and a measure of a country's economic strength [1] - China's gold reserves total 2,264.33 tons, which is lower than those of the US and Russia, influenced by historical and developmental factors [3][6] - The majority of gold in China is held by the public, with significant amounts in the form of jewelry and auspicious ornaments, contributing to a unique national context for gold reserves [3] Group 2 - The US holds the largest gold reserves globally at 8,133 tons, which underpins the value of the US dollar despite economic challenges [8][10] - Gold serves as a crucial backing for the US dollar, maintaining confidence in its value even amidst inflation and debt issues [10] - Russia ranks among the top five countries in gold reserves, currently holding 2,350 tons, and has been increasing its gold storage since 2000 [12][14] Group 3 - Russia's gold reserves have diversified alongside foreign exchange reserves, enhancing its economic resilience against risks [14] - The collaboration with China in energy and the use of the yuan for settlements have bolstered Russia's confidence in its economic strategies despite Western sanctions [14]

Core Insights - Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, has significantly reduced its holdings in technology stocks while increasing its investment in gold ETFs, indicating a strategic shift in asset allocation [1][3][4] Group 1: Investment Strategy - In the first quarter, Bridgewater cut its position in the S&P 500 ETF by nearly 60%, reducing its stake from 22% to 8.7% [3] - Major technology stocks were heavily reduced: Google A shares by 16%, Nvidia by 18.74%, and Meta by 31% [3] - However, Bridgewater increased its positions in Microsoft and Amazon, suggesting a selective approach rather than a blanket bearish stance on technology [3] Group 2: Gold Investment - Bridgewater has made gold ETFs a significant part of its portfolio, purchasing 110,600 shares of SPDR Gold ETF, making it the sixth-largest holding [3][4] - Ray Dalio stated that gold is the only asset that can hedge against sovereign currency risks, with the correlation between gold and the S&P 500 dropping to -0.18, indicating gold's potential as a safe haven during stock market downturns [3][4] Group 3: Market Conditions - The fund's actions are influenced by rising interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve, which typically negatively impacts high-valuation technology stocks [4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Asia, are also contributing to a cautious investment environment, prompting global central banks to buy 228 tons of gold in the first quarter, 34% above the five-year average [4] Group 4: Focus on Chinese Assets - While reducing exposure to U.S. tech stocks, Bridgewater has aggressively increased its holdings in Chinese companies, notably Alibaba, which saw an increase from 255,000 shares to 5.66 million shares, valued at $748 million [4] - This strategy reflects a belief in the potential of Chinese assets to provide a counterbalance to risks in U.S. markets [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to be cautious with technology stocks, particularly those with inflated valuations, while considering opportunities in established companies like Microsoft and Apple [5] - A recommendation is made to allocate a portion of investments to gold, given its long-term support from Fed rate expectations and geopolitical risks [5] - Chinese assets are highlighted as having significant growth potential, particularly in e-commerce and cloud computing, while cautioning against companies with compliance risks [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have significantly declined, potentially marking the worst weekly performance in six months due to a stronger dollar and reduced demand for safe-haven assets following a temporary trade agreement between China and the U.S. [1][3] Market Analysis - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is the primary bearish factor for the gold market this week, as the announcement of temporary tariff reductions shifted market sentiment from panic to optimism [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain high interest rates in the short term, with recent comments from officials indicating no urgency to cut rates, which has cooled expectations for rate cuts until December [3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming U.S. economic data, such as CPI and employment figures, which could reinforce or alter the Fed's hawkish stance and impact gold prices [3] Price Movement - Gold prices have dropped over 4% this week, with current trading around $3,175 per ounce, having broken below the $3,200 mark [1][3] - The price trend suggests a potential target around $2,900, with possible short-term rebounds viewed merely as corrections [3] - Recent analysis indicates that the recent upward movement to $3,252 has ended, and a downward trend is anticipated, with key resistance levels identified at $3,220 and $3,188 [5][7] Technical Indicators - The market is currently observing a bearish trend, with significant resistance at $3,193 and support around $3,147, which, if broken, could lead to further declines towards $3,080 [7] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of effective position management and risk control in trading strategies, highlighting the need for a disciplined approach to market fluctuations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices has led to significant losses for inexperienced investors, highlighting the risks associated with impulsive investment decisions in volatile markets [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of May 15, the London spot gold price fell below $3150 per ounce, with domestic gold ETFs experiencing declines of over 2% [6][8]. - The drop in gold prices was unexpected by many market participants, attributed to rising U.S. dollar strength and higher real interest rates, which negatively impacted gold valuations [8]. - The progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations has reduced market risk aversion, leading to a shift of funds away from gold and other safe-haven assets [10]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - A novice investor, influenced by peers' success stories, hastily invested in gold without prior experience, resulting in a loss of approximately 16,000 yuan (around $2,300) within a week [4][6]. - The investor's experience underscores the importance of cautious and informed decision-making in investment, particularly in volatile markets [11]. Group 3: Expert Analysis - Analysts suggest that despite the short-term price adjustments, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and economic risks [11]. - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may support gold prices in the medium to long term, despite current market fluctuations [10][11].

随着俄乌开始时隔三年后的首次直接谈判，以及中美贸易紧张局势缓解抑制了对避险资产的需求。现货黄金周五延续跌势，一度下跌超过2.5%，失守3160 美元/盎司，随后有所回升。本周迄今黄金已跌近5%，势将创下自2024年11月以来最糟糕的周度表现。现货白银跟随黄金下跌，日内跌超2%。 在对黄金支持的交易所交易基金产品（ETF）需求反弹、央行强劲购买和中国投机性需求的推动下，今年黄金价格仍上涨了逾20%。 WisdomTree的大宗商品策略师尼蒂什・沙阿（Nitesh Shah）表示："在过去的一周里，贸易谈判出现了乐观的信号，我们也看到美元在这个过程中升值，这 给黄金价格带来了压力。"本周早些时候，美国和中国同意暂时削减4月份实施的严厉的对等关税，这提振了更广泛金融市场的情绪。 Fxstreet分析师指出，顺风因素和逆风因素非常繁杂，无法对黄金走势进行总结。但至少目前来说，金价不再像年初那样是单向波动。最终，"最后一股 风"将决定黄金的走向。不过就目前而言，投资者应该继续关注3160美元区域，以评估金价的涨势是否仍然可行和完整，若跌破此处，55日简单移动平均线 （SMA）的3138美元将充当下一处支撑。 华侨银行的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has transformed it from a traditional safe-haven asset into a high-risk investment, particularly among younger investors who treat it like a stock for short-term trading [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since May, gold has experienced significant fluctuations, with daily price changes often exceeding 2%, comparable to tech stocks [3]. - The interplay of three main forces is driving this volatility: hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve boosting the dollar index, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations reducing safe-haven demand, and ongoing gold purchases by global central banks providing a support mechanism [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Younger investors, particularly those born in the 1990s, now account for 47% of bank gold accumulation business, showing a trend of frequent trading and a preference for short-term gains [3]. - This shift in investment strategy contrasts sharply with older generations who view gold as a long-term asset for wealth preservation [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical instances of gold price drops, such as a 9% decline in 2008 and prolonged losses after the 2013 buying spree by Chinese retail investors, highlight the risks associated with short-term trading in gold [3]. - The current market conditions serve as a reminder that all assets have cyclical patterns, and chasing price movements can lead to significant risks [4].