转自：新华财经 •高盛：推迟美联储降息预期至2026年6月，货币政策高度依赖就业与通胀数据 •信安资管：美联储1月降息可能性基本归零，劳动力市场需警惕潜在疲软表现 •马来亚银行：政府干预美联储或削弱央行独立性，美元面临下行风险 •马来亚银行高级外汇策略师指出，美国总统特朗普正试图控制美联储，未来或任命"鸽派且忠诚"的新 主席，此举可能削弱美联储独立性并对美元构成下行风险。鲍威尔强调，司法部的刑事指控威胁并非源 于翻修项目本身，而是因美联储坚持基于经济数据而非总统偏好制定利率。若鲍威尔履职受阻，将动摇 美联储政策公信力，宏观交易员正倾向于做空美元以对冲政治干预带来的不确定性。 •信安资管策略师表示，受12月美国失业率意外下降影响，美联储在2026年1月降息的可能性已基本排 除，市场对近期宽松预期显著降温。目前尚难断言美国劳动力市场正在崩溃或急需货币政策干预。尽管 部分指标走弱，但就业数据整体仍具韧性，降息并非当务之急。经济或需政策支持，但非立即行动。尽 管美国就业人数增长的三个月移动平均值已转为负值，美联储未来可能需要提供额外支持，但当前条件 尚不支持立即降息。 •Metzler资产管理公司指出，如果日本政府通 ...

昨夜（1月6日），美联储官员密集发声，强化加息预期。 消息面上，美联储官员密集发声，强化了降息预期。 美联储理事米兰，预计数据将支持进一步降息，美联储今年应降息逾100个基点，核心通胀率接近美联 储的目标，米兰还表示，并未主动争取美联储主席职位。 美联储官员巴尔金称，必须平衡通胀治理进展与就业稳定两大目标，鉴于当前失业率与通胀目标面临的 双重风险，未来的利率决策需进行"精细调整"；通胀已下降，但仍高于目标，失业率仍处于低位，但不 希望就业市场进一步大幅恶化。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为18.3%，维持利率不变的概率为81.7%。到3月 累计降息25个基点的概率为40.7%，维持利率不变的概率为52.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为6.5%。 责编：彭勃 美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.99%报49462.08点，标普500指数涨0.62%报6944.82点，纳指涨0.65% 报23547.17点。 其中，道指、标普500指数均创历史收盘新高。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.78%。热门中概股方面，阿特斯太阳能跌超6%，BOSS直聘跌 逾6%，老虎证券跌超6%。 此外，今早 ...

海州区人社局相关负责人表示，直播带岗凭借"短平快"优势，已成为稳就业的重要抓手。这种"看得见、问得清、联得上"的招聘模式，既降低了企业用工 成本，又让求职者获得更透明的岗位信息。未来，海州区将把直播带岗作为就业服务常态化重点举措，持续优化服务形式，助力更多求职者就业、企业招 才。 通讯员赵威娜张伟轩扬子晚报/紫牛新闻记者张凌飞 校对陶善工 近日，由连云港市海州区委人才办主办、海州区人社局承办的"才聚海州就有未来——2025年暖冬专场招聘会"线上直播带岗系列活动成功举办。活动通过 海州人社官方抖音平台开播，聚焦新材料、高端制造、医药、石化、电商、商业等本地特色产业，吸引53家企业参与，推出技术、管理类岗位1602个，累 计10386人次在线观看，为企业与求职者搭建起高效便捷的"云上就业桥"。 此次直播带岗创新采用"三维联动"模式，让供需对接更精准、更高效。企业代表以"岗位讲解+实时互动"形式，直观展示工作环境、薪资福利等核心信 息，求职者在线提出"社保缴纳比例""晋升通道"等疑问，企业HR即时回应；主播化身"招聘红娘"，言简意赅介绍岗位需求与福利待遇，与求职者屏对屏 零距离沟通，实现"足不出户知岗位"；海州区人 ...

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The business landscape in 2025 is increasingly competitive, with new companies challenging established leaders in saturated markets [1][3] - Companies like YingShi and TuoZhu are innovating in consumer hardware and 3D printing, respectively, by addressing core pain points and enhancing user experience [3][4][5] - The rise of AI applications is accelerating, with companies like MiniMax and Manus achieving significant milestones in their respective fields [1][14] Group 2: Company Performances - YingShi has become the global leader in panoramic cameras, surpassing major competitors like Ricoh and Samsung, with a revenue of 6.611 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a nearly 70% year-on-year increase [4][5] - TuoZhu has emerged as the global leader in consumer-grade 3D printing, achieving a revenue of nearly 10 billion yuan in 2025, doubling its previous year's figures [5][6] - MoEr Thread has successfully launched on the STAR Market, with a market capitalization exceeding 300 billion yuan, marking its position as the first domestic GPU stock [8][9] Group 3: Strategic Moves - MoEr Thread is focusing on building a comprehensive ecosystem around its MUSA architecture, aiming to compete with NVIDIA's CUDA by enhancing its software and hardware capabilities [9][11] - FishBubble is attempting to penetrate the white-collar recruitment market, aiming to expand its user base beyond its traditional blue-collar focus, with over 1 million users already [12][13] - Manus has achieved an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of over 100 million USD within nine months of commercialization, showcasing rapid growth in the AI sector [17][18] Group 4: Future Outlook - The 3D printing industry is expected to continue evolving, with TuoZhu aiming for further innovations and market penetration [7] - MoEr Thread plans to enhance its GPU offerings and expand its ecosystem, indicating a long-term vision for growth in the computing industry [11][12] - FishBubble's ambition to challenge established players in the recruitment market reflects a broader trend of new entrants seeking to disrupt traditional industries [12][13]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is now integral to recruitment processes, enhancing speed, efficiency, and decision-making, with 70% of talent acquisition leaders noting improved efficiency through AI [2] - AI is positioned as a tool to enhance the hiring experience rather than replace human recruiters, addressing challenges in labor markets and candidate expectations [3] AI Tools and Their Impact - AI technologies such as chatbots and intelligent applicant tracking systems (ATS) are transforming candidate engagement, making the hiring process feel more personal and timely [4] - AI assists in job ad creation by generating draft descriptions quickly, allowing for rapid iterations and refinements [8] - AI-driven job ad tools improve inclusivity by scanning for biased language and suggesting alternatives, broadening the talent pool [9] Skills and Hiring Needs - AI helps organizations predict future skill requirements by analyzing historical data and industry trends, serving as a decision-support tool rather than a decision-maker [6][7] - The shift towards skills-based hiring, driven by AI, allows organizations to focus on core competencies, resulting in a more diverse candidate pipeline [10] Adoption Trends in the GCC - Recruitment practices in the UAE and GCC are evolving from traditional keyword-based systems to AI-driven decision-support tools [11] - Early adopters of AI in recruitment, particularly in technology and large conglomerates, are seeing measurable gains in efficiency and accuracy over time [13] - Sectors like healthcare, finance, and technology lead in AI adoption due to their need for specialized skill sets [14][15] Barriers and Considerations - Some organizations still rely on traditional recruitment methods, which can be effective for those not requiring large volumes or highly technical roles [16][17] - While AI enhances efficiency, human judgment remains crucial, especially in relationship-driven markets, for assessing soft skills and cultural fit [18][19]

Job Market Insights - The upcoming job reports for October and November are expected to be relatively sluggish, with no significant surprises anticipated [4] - Current data indicates a cooling labor market, although it has leveled off somewhat [4] Wage Trends - The labor market is currently characterized as an employer market, leading to limited wage growth due to excess labor supply [5][6] - Certain sectors, such as healthcare, may still experience competitive wage growth, but overall wage increases are not expected to rise significantly as long as the labor market remains sluggish [6] Impact of AI on Employment - AI is influencing certain sectors, particularly technology, marketing, and accounting, but its current impact may be more about anticipation rather than actual productivity gains [7][9] - Companies are heavily investing in AI, which may be causing them to hold off on hiring, as they await the anticipated benefits of these technologies [7][9] - There are indications that some companies are not seeing the expected productivity gains from their AI investments, raising questions about future hiring needs [9]

Core Insights - The recruitment industry is undergoing rapid transformation due to AI, which is expected to reshape the entire job-seeking process by enhancing understanding and connection between job seekers and employers [4][5][21]. - Traditional recruitment apps primarily focus on resume optimization and Q&A assistance, failing to address the core issue of information overload for job seekers [3][4]. Group 1: AI's Impact on Recruitment - AI is expected to reduce recruitment costs significantly, from hundreds of thousands to a few thousand, while increasing efficiency by several orders of magnitude, thus activating previously unserviceable job positions [6][20]. - The recruitment process is fundamentally about information alignment, where AI can rewrite the understanding between individuals and opportunities, addressing the core pain point of information asymmetry [9][16]. Group 2: Business Model and Market Dynamics - Traditional job platforms operate on a "traffic monetization" model, while the new approach focuses on "result delivery," aiming for users to find suitable opportunities more quickly and accurately [9][39]. - The AI recruitment market is viewed as an incremental market, with the potential for increased transaction density and frequency as more companies and individuals are willing to pay for enhanced experiences [20][21]. Group 3: Product Design and Functionality - The key to successful AI recruitment products lies in understanding the business context and providing comprehensive information and context for better matching [27][30]. - AI agents should possess advisory-level judgment and the ability to provide professional services at scale, utilizing extensive information and semantic understanding [10][30]. Group 4: Current Market Landscape - The AI recruitment sector is still in its early stages, with leading players continuously adjusting their strategies and seeking product-market fit (PMF) [11][37]. - The penetration rate of AI in recruitment remains low, with many users still relying on traditional services, indicating significant room for growth [37][38]. Group 5: Future Outlook - AI is not expected to completely replace human recruiters but rather enhance their efficiency, especially in complex recruitment scenarios where trust and nuanced understanding are crucial [24][25]. - The integration of AI in recruitment is anticipated to evolve, with a focus on creating a data feedback loop that allows continuous learning and improvement of the matching process [29][43].

Group 1: Xiaomi - Xiaomi's Q3 revenue reached 113.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.4% [1] - Adjusted profit for the quarter was 11.3 billion, up 80.9% year-on-year [1] - Automotive revenue was 28.3 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 207%, with a quarterly profit of 0.7 billion [1] - The performance in major appliances was disappointing, with a year-on-year decline of 15.7% and a quarter-on-quarter drop of 64.8% [1] - Current valuation estimates suggest Xiaomi's smartphone business could be valued at around 600 billion, while automotive and other IoT segments could add significant value [1] Group 2: Pinduoduo - Pinduoduo's Q3 revenue was 108.2 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 9%, the first time it fell below 10% growth [2] - Net profit for the quarter was 29.3 billion, up 17% year-on-year, with over 400 billion in cash reserves [2] - Current market valuation stands at 180 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 when excluding cash, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [2] - Concerns remain regarding the company's future dividend and buyback plans, leading to a significant drop in stock price [2] Group 3: Boss Zhipin - Boss Zhipin reported Q3 revenue of 2.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with net profit reaching 0.687 billion, up 108% [3] - The substantial profit growth was attributed to reduced marketing expenses and the introduction of new paid services [3] - The company is viewed positively due to its ability to grow amidst challenging market conditions, suggesting strong potential for future performance [3] Group 4: Trip.com - Trip.com achieved Q3 revenue of 18.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16% [4] - International OTA bookings surged by 60% year-on-year, while inbound travel doubled, indicating robust recovery in travel demand [4] - The company's consistent performance and market position contribute to its stable stock price, making it a strong player in the travel industry [4] Group 5: Baidu - Baidu's Q3 revenue was 31.17 billion, a year-on-year decline of 7%, although AI business revenue grew by over 50% [5] - The mixed results raise questions about the company's overall performance and future outlook [5] Group 6: Google - Google's Gemini 3 Pro model achieved the highest score in model rankings, reinforcing its strong position in the AI sector [6] - Berkshire Hathaway's recent investment in Google indicates confidence in the company's long-term business viability [6] - Overall, the recent financial results of Chinese internet companies are not perceived as particularly poor, despite heightened market expectations [6]

Industry Insights - The domestic demand for cranes in the Chinese engineering machinery industry continues to recover, with sales of truck-mounted cranes and crawler cranes increasing by 42% and 54% year-on-year in October, respectively, driven by energy projects and wind power installations [2] - Exports of various types of engineering machinery also performed strongly in October, except for aerial work platforms and truck-mounted cranes, confirming the previous view that non-earthmoving machinery demand is recovering and will act as a catalyst for the industry [2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH), Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), and Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH), while adopting a cautious stance on Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) due to the continued weakness in aerial work platform sales, which fell by 39% year-on-year in October [2] Company Insights - Pinduoduo (PDD US) reported a 9.0% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching 108.3 billion RMB, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations, primarily driven by a 7% increase in transaction service fees [6] - Baidu (BIDU US) reported a core revenue of 24.7 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a 7.0% year-on-year decline, but slightly above market expectations, with non-GAAP operating profit showing a 67% year-on-year decline [7] - Trip.com Group (TCOM US) achieved a total revenue of 18.4 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a 15.5% year-on-year increase, exceeding both internal and market expectations, driven by strong operational leverage [8] - BOSS Zhipin (BZ US) reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth to 2.16 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with non-GAAP net profit increasing by 34% to 999.2 million RMB, benefiting from effective control of sales and R&D expenses [10] - Xiaomi Group (1810 HK) saw a 22% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by the rapidly growing smart electric vehicle business and resilient internet segment, despite pressures from rising memory costs [11] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) anticipates continued revenue growth in FY26, driven by store expansion and new product strategies, despite a cautious outlook on same-store sales growth due to high base effects [12][13] - Guosheng Tang (2273 HK) is entering a phase of overseas expansion with the acquisition of a 100% stake in a Singapore-based TCM clinic, aiming for significant revenue growth in the overseas market by 2026 [17][18]

Group 1 - In October, the number of layoffs announced by U.S. employers surged to 153,074, nearly doubling from 54,064 in September, with a total of 1,099,500 layoffs reported this year, a 65% increase from the same period last year [2][3] - The layoffs are attributed to cost-cutting measures and the impact of artificial intelligence, marking the highest number of layoffs for this period since the COVID-19 pandemic [2][3] - Despite the layoffs, the unemployment rate remains low at 4.36%, with no significant changes observed in the labor market since the turmoil in September [3][4] Group 2 - The job market is experiencing a slowdown, with hiring data from platforms like Indeed showing a decline in job postings to the lowest level since 2021, particularly in tech-heavy regions [3][4] - ADP reported a rebound in private sector job growth with 42,000 new jobs added in October, contrasting with other reports indicating a reduction in overall employment [4] - Employee confidence is at its lowest since June, reflecting the challenges faced in a stagnant labor market with limited external options [4]