在地缘紧张局势加剧以及美国一系列关税政策不确定性的影响下，投资者纷纷涌入黄金等避险资产。全球投资者 普遍感到担忧，尤其是在新兴市场。 值得一提的事，上月，欧洲央行发布报告称，随着金价屡创新高，按市场价格计算，去年黄金占全球外汇储备的 比例达到20%，超越欧元的16%位居第二，仅落后于占比46%的美元。 WGC指出，第二季度各国央行继续购金，尽管购买节奏较此前有所放缓，但依然比2010至2021年间的季度平均值 高出41%。报告称，较高的金价可能抑制了央行的购金力度，但在当前经济与地缘政治不确定性背景下，购金热 情依然显著偏高，预计未来12个月内仍将持续。 美国贵金属交易商US Money Reserve总裁Philip Diehl表示，看不出中央银行会停止购买黄金的理由，未来可能会 有更多央行加入购金行列。他指出，全球对美国在经济与地缘政治领导力方面的怀疑情绪正在削弱对美元的信 心，各国央行出于对美元敞口进行对冲的需要，增持黄金是必然选择。（南木） 【环球网财经综合报道】根据世界黄金协会（WGC）报告，今年第二季度全球黄金总需求（含场外交易投资）同 比增长3%至1249吨，若以美元计算，同比上涨45%，达到1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures in the U.S., and changes in U.S. tariff policies, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Fundamental Analysis - Tariff uncertainties have heightened risk aversion among investors, with the U.S. increasing tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35% and imposing additional tariffs on imports from Brazil and South Korea, which is expected to escalate inflationary pressures and market tensions [3]. - U.S. inflation is rising, with the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increasing by 0.3% month-over-month, and the core PCE inflation rate growing by 2.8% year-over-year, complicating market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly in the Middle East, with Israel conducting airstrikes against Hezbollah and considering broader military actions, which, combined with trade war dynamics, is driving investors towards gold [5]. - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% during its July 31 meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that current inflation pressures are too high, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts in September [6]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a recovery after a significant drop, closing with a long upper shadow indicating potential resistance around the 5-day moving average near 3300 [9]. - The four-hour chart indicates that gold is at a critical juncture, with the 3268 level being pivotal for potential upward movement. If this level holds, a rebound towards 3353/3354 and 3373/3374 could occur [10].

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the equity market, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 experiencing declines of 1.18% and 1.82% respectively, while the bond market is showing signs of recovery [2][4] - The manufacturing PMI has decreased to 49.3%, indicating a marginal economic slowdown, which has further pressured market risk appetite and bolstered bond market sentiment [4][5] - Institutional confidence is gradually recovering, with funds returning to the bond market, particularly into balanced and index bond funds, suggesting a potential acceleration of the bond bull market [5][9] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21, down 42.51 points or 1.18%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4075.59, down 75.65 points or 1.82% [1] - The bond market saw a slight increase in the 7-10 year national development bond index, which rose by 0.12% [1] Market Adjustments - The equity market is undergoing a correction phase, with significant outflows from stock ETFs totaling 25.3 billion yuan since July 24, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment [7] - The afternoon session saw a notable decline in the market following concerns over Nvidia's chip safety issues, which affected risk appetite [6][9] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the bond bull market may be entering an accelerated phase, with a focus on long-duration bonds as institutional investors show renewed interest [5] - The ongoing adjustments in U.S.-China trade relations are expected to influence market expectations, potentially driving funds back to safe-haven assets like bonds [5][6]

最新报告出炉。 世界黄金协会7月31日发布的2025年二季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，在高金价环境下，二季度全球黄金需求总量(包含场外交易)达1249吨，同比 增长3%，强劲的黄金投资流入成为推动本季度需求增长的主要动力。其中，黄金ETF二季度流入量达170吨，上半年全球黄金ETF需求总量达397吨，创下 自2020年以来的最高上半年纪录。 今年二季度，中国市场黄金ETF创下了有记录以来最强劲的季度表现，流入464亿元(合65亿美元)，持仓增加61吨。上半年，中国市场黄金ETF资产管理总 规模(AUM)飙升116%至1525亿元(合213亿美元)，总持仓跃升74%至200吨。 世界黄金协会资深市场分析师路易丝.斯特里特(Louise Street)表示，上半年美元金价涨幅高达26%，跑赢多数主流资产类别。如此强势的开局，意味着下 半年金价可能会在相对窄幅的区间内震荡。宏观经济环境前景仍不明朗，这或为黄金提供进一步支撑。若全球经济或地缘政治局势出现任何实质性恶化， 黄金作为避险资产的吸引力都可能被进一步放大，推动金价再度走高。 黄金投资需求表现亮眼 在金价飙升的助推下，今年上半年投资型的黄金产品持续受到市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council's report indicates a strong increase in global gold demand in Q2 2025, driven primarily by robust investment inflows, particularly in gold ETFs, despite a decline in gold jewelry demand [1][4]. Group 1: Global Gold Demand - In Q2 2025, global gold demand reached 1249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, with gold ETF inflows contributing significantly [1]. - Gold ETF inflows in Q2 amounted to 170 tons, leading to a total of 397 tons for the first half of the year, marking the highest mid-year record since 2020 [1]. - The strong performance of gold ETFs in China saw inflows of 464 billion yuan (approximately 65 million USD) in Q2, with total assets under management (AUM) rising 116% to 1525 billion yuan (213 million USD) [1]. Group 2: Investment Demand for Gold - Investment in gold bars and coins increased by 11% year-on-year to 307 tons in Q2, with significant contributions from the Chinese market, which saw a 44% increase to 115 tons [3]. - In the first half of the year, China's retail investment demand for gold bars and coins reached 239 tons, a 26% increase year-on-year, with total values hitting 887 billion yuan and 1720 billion yuan for Q2 and H1 respectively [3]. - Key factors supporting this demand include a 24% increase in the RMB gold price, limited investment alternatives, and central bank purchases, with the People's Bank of China adding 19 tons to its reserves in H1 [3]. Group 3: Jewelry Demand Trends - Global gold jewelry consumption fell by 14% year-on-year to 341 tons in Q2, nearing the lows seen during the 2020 pandemic [4]. - In China, gold jewelry consumption dropped by 20% year-on-year to 69 tons in Q2, contributing to a 28% decline in total domestic gold demand for H1 [6]. - Seasonal factors and rising gold prices have led consumers to prefer lighter-weight jewelry, while economic uncertainty has made consumers cautious about spending on non-essential items [7].

经济观察网7月31日，世界黄金协会发布2025年二季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，在高金价环境 下，二季度全球黄金需求总量(包含场外交易)达到1249吨，同比增长3%。随着国际地缘政治环境叠加金 价势能持续支撑黄金投资需求，强劲的黄金投资流入成为推动二季度全球黄金需求增长的主要动力。 黄金ETF投资仍是推高黄金总需求的关键驱动力，二季度流入量达到170吨，与2024年二季度的少量流 出形成对比。尤其是亚洲地区黄金ETF资金流入所对应的黄金持仓量增加值达到70吨，与北美地区基金 73吨的净流入量几乎持平。这意味着今年上半年全球黄金ETF需求总量达到397吨，创下2020年以来的 上半年最高纪录。 今年二季度，金条与金币投资总量同比增长11%至307吨。其中，中国投资者领跑全球，金条与金币需 求同比激增44%至115吨；印度投资者继续增持，二季度需求达到46吨。西方市场呈现分化趋势：二季 度欧洲地区金币金条净投资需求增长逾一倍，至28吨；同期美国金条金币需求降至9吨。 全球央行购金态势延续但节奏有所放缓，2025年二季度共增储166吨。尽管购金增速放缓，但在全球经 济波动与国际地缘政治不确定性增加的环境下，全球 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global gold demand continues to grow strongly against the backdrop of record-high prices, with significant contributions from investment in gold ETFs and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Global Gold Demand - In Q2, global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons, with a value surge of 45% to a record $132 billion [2]. - The demand for gold ETFs saw a substantial increase, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth, driven by rising prices and the asset's safe-haven appeal [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks slowed their gold purchases in Q2, with a total of 166 tons added to global official reserves, the lowest level since 2022, but still 41% higher than the average from 2010 to 2021 [4]. - Despite the slowdown, central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold due to ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties [4]. Group 3: China Market Dynamics - In Q2, China's gold ETF inflows reached 464 billion RMB (approximately $65 billion, 61 tons), marking the strongest quarterly performance ever [5]. - The total inflow for the first half of the year reached 631 billion RMB (about $88 billion), with a 116% increase in total assets under management, reaching 152.5 billion RMB (approximately $21.3 billion) by the end of June [5]. Group 4: Price Trends and Investment Demand - The average LBMA gold price in Q2 reached a record of $3280.35 per ounce, a 40% year-on-year increase and a 15% quarter-on-quarter increase [8]. - Overall investment demand, including ETFs, bars, and coins, grew by 78% year-on-year, with expectations for gold prices to potentially reach $3675 per ounce by year-end [6]. Group 5: Recycling and Jewelry Demand - Despite high prices, recycling activities remain low, with Indian consumers increasingly opting for old-for-new exchanges or using gold as loan collateral [8]. - Jewelry demand showed a divergence in volume and value, with tonnage generally declining but spending on gold jewelry increasing [8].

尽管金价多次刷新历史纪录，投资者对黄金的兴趣依旧不减。在地缘政治动荡和对美元信心减弱的背景下，这一贵金属作为避险 资产的吸引力持续增强。 周四（7月31日），世界黄金协会（WGC）发布报告称，在今年第二季度，全球黄金总需求（含场外交易投资）同比增长3%至 1249吨；若以美元计算则同比跃升45%，达到1320亿美元。 伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）的行情显示，季度平均金价达到史无前例的每盎司3280.35美元，同比上升40%，环比上升15%。今 年4月时，现货黄金价格一度升破每盎司3500美元。 WGC报告写道，全球黄金ETF的需求连续第二个季度保持强劲，是上半年全球需求创下2020年以来最高水平的主要原因之一。与 此同时，包括金条与金币在内的投资需求同比激增78%。 WGC高级市场策略师John Reade表示："要真正看空黄金，你得相信全球主要地缘政治领导人会突然变得理性并开始合作。但我觉 得这个世界太分裂了，不可能。" 在地缘紧张局势加剧以及美国一系列关税政策的不确定性影响下，投资者纷纷涌入黄金等避险资产。Reade补充说，全球投资者普 遍感到担忧，尤其是在新兴市场。 上月，欧洲央行发布报告显示，随着金价 ...

7月31日，世界黄金协会发布2025年二季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》。报告显示，在高金价环境 下，二季度全球黄金需求总量（包含场外交易）达1249吨，同比增长3%。随着日趋莫测的地缘政治环 境叠加金价势能持续地支撑投资需求，强劲的黄金投资流入成为推动本季度需求增长的主要动力。 具体来看，今年二季度，全球黄金投资总需求量为477吨，同比大增78%；二季度，全球金条金币 总需求为307吨，同比增长11%。 全球央行购金方面，态势延续但节奏有所放缓，2025年二季度共增储166吨。尽管购金增速放缓， 但在持续的全球经济与地缘政治不确定性条件下，全球央行购金量仍处于显著高位水平。世界黄金协会 发布的《2025年全球央行黄金储备调查》显示，95%的受访央行预计，未来12个月内全球央行黄金储备 将进一步增加。 世界黄金协会资深市场分析师Louise Street指出，"2025年全球黄金市场经历了动荡开局：贸易摩擦 加剧、美国政策反复无常、地缘政治热点事件层出不穷。上半年我们所观察到的强劲投资活动，彰显了 黄金在对冲经济与地缘政治风险方面的作用。持续的市场波动，加上近几个月来金价的亮眼表现，共同 形成了强劲的市场势能，吸 ...

世界黄金协会31日发布的2025年二季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，在高金价环境下，二季度全球 黄金需求总量（包含场外交易）达1249吨，同比增长3%。强劲的黄金投资流入成为推动本季度需求增 长的主要动力。 另外，从黄金供应方面看，报告指出，随着金矿产量小幅增长并创下二季度历史新高，黄金总供应量同 比增长3%至1249吨。回收金供应量虽同比增长4%，但在高金价环境下仍显得相对低迷。 "2025年全球黄金市场经历了动荡开局，上半年我们所观察到的强劲投资活动，彰显了黄金在对冲经济 与地缘政治风险方面的作用。"世界黄金协会资深市场分析师Louise Street点评称，持续的市场波动，加 上近几个月来金价的亮眼表现，共同形成了强劲的市场势能，吸引全球大量资本涌入黄金市场。 展望未来，Louise Street认为，上半年金价强劲的开局意味着今年下半年金价可能会在相对窄幅的区间 内震荡。不过，宏观经济环境前景仍高度不明朗，这或许将为黄金提供进一步支撑。"若全球经济或地 缘政治局势出现任何实质性恶化，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力都可能被进一步放大，推动金价再度走 高。"Louise Street表示。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 ...