交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (10.20-10.24) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油受地缘因素影响自低位大幅上行，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.44美元，周涨7.32%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货 价格收于每桶64.72美元，周涨6.05%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至467.6元/桶，周涨8.09%。周初市场仍受美俄和谈影响低位运行，供应端未 受显著影响压制油价，而周中特朗普意外表示暂不考虑与俄罗斯总统普京会面，同时美国财政部加大对俄罗斯石油公司制裁，前所未有直接提 振市场地缘担忧情绪，令有消息称印度与美国进行关税谈判或减少俄油进口，更进一步拉升油价，原油回升至前期 ...

Report Summary Core Views - The basic consensus reached in the high - level China - US economic and trade talks will ease market concerns, help the short - term rise of stock index futures and commodity futures, and suppress the short - term rise of treasury bond futures [2] - The central bank's continued over - quantity renewal of MLF to inject liquidity into the market will help the short - term price increase of stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity futures [7] - If the EIA crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 24 continues to decline, it will contribute to the price increase of crude oil and related commodity futures [10] - If the Q3 2025 seasonally - adjusted GDP annual rate initial value of the eurozone is slightly lower than the previous value, it will slightly suppress the price increase of commodity futures (except gold and silver) and slightly help the price increase of gold and silver futures [16] - If the official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI in China in October are slightly lower than the previous values, it will slightly suppress the rise of commodity futures (mainly industrial product futures) and stock index futures, but help the rise of treasury bond futures [21] - If the annual rates of the US September PCE price index and core PCE price index are slightly lower than the previous values, but the monthly rate of the PCE price index is slightly higher than the previous value, it will strengthen the market's expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November [23] Key Events and Their Expected Impacts October 27 - China will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to September and for September. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to August increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with an 20.4% year - on - year increase in August. The announcement results will affect related industrial product futures prices, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures [4] - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation. With 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net MLF investment in October is 200 billion yuan, with eight consecutive months of increased renewal [7] October 28 - The US will announce the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October, with an expected value of 94.2, the same as the previous value [8] October 29 - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report. It is expected that the overnight lending rate of the Bank of Canada on October 30 will be cut by 25 basis points to 2.25% [9] - The US will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 24. The previous value decreased by 961,000 barrels [10] October 30 - The Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference [11] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference [12] - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference [14] - Germany will announce the initial value of Q3 2025 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted GDP quarterly rate initial value is 0%, compared with - 0.3% in Q2 [15] - The eurozone will announce the initial value of Q3 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted GDP quarterly rate initial value is 0.1%, the same as Q2; the expected seasonally - adjusted GDP annual rate initial value is 1.2%, compared with 1.5% in Q2 [16] - The eurozone will announce the economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index for October. The expected economic sentiment index is 95.7, and the expected industrial sentiment index is - 10.1 [17] - The US will announce the initial value of Q3 GDP. The expected real GDP annualized quarterly rate initial value is 3%, compared with 3.8% in the previous period [19] - Germany will announce the initial value of the CPI for October. The expected CPI annual rate initial value is 2.2%, compared with 2.4% in the previous period [20] October 31 - China will announce the official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI for October. The expected manufacturing PMI is 49.6, and the expected non - manufacturing PMI is 49.8 [21] - The eurozone will announce the initial value of the CPI for October. The expected harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) initial value is 2.1%, and the expected core harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) initial value is 2.3% [22] - The US will announce the September PCE price index. The expected PCE price index annual rate is 2.7%, the expected core PCE price index annual rate is 2.9%, and the expected PCE core price index monthly rate is 0.3% [23] Other Information - As of October 24, the US government has been shut down for 24 days. A Republican congresswoman said the shutdown may last until the end of November. If it continues, the release of US economic data (especially the September PCE price index) is likely to be delayed [2] - From October 25 to 26, China - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur. The two sides reached a basic consensus on resolving respective concerns [2] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27 to 30, with the theme of "Global Financial Development under Innovation, Change, and Reshaping" [5] - From October 30 to November 1, President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea and conduct a state visit to South Korea [3][14]

当地时间10月25日至26日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝 森特和贸易代表格里尔在马来西亚吉隆坡举行中美经贸磋商。 双方以今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共识为引领，围绕美对华海事物流和造船业301措施、延长对等 关税暂停期、芬太尼关税和执法合作、农产品贸易、出口管制等双方共同关心的重要经贸问题，进行了 坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流磋商，就解决各自关切的安排达成基本共识。双方同意进一步确定具体 细节，并履行各自国内批准程序。 何立峰表示，中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢，双方合则两利、斗则俱伤，维护中美经贸关系稳定发 展，符合两国和两国人民的根本利益，也符合国际社会的期待。对于在经贸合作中出现的分歧和摩擦， 双方应本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，通过平等对话协商，找到妥善解决彼此关切的办 法。中美经贸磋商成果来之不易，需要双方共同维护。希望美方与中方相向而行，共同落实好两国元首 历次通话重要共识和今年以来历次经贸磋商成果，进一步积累互信、管控分歧，拓展互利合作，推动双 边经贸关系不断迈向更高水平。 美方表示，美中经贸关系是全球最具影响力的双边关系，美方愿同中方通过平等、尊 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that both the US and China are keen to avoid escalating trade conflicts, recognizing that a prolonged standoff would be detrimental to both sides [1][10] - The meeting took place in Kuala Lumpur, a relatively neutral location, which contributed to a more relaxed atmosphere for discussions [1] - The delegation from China was led by He Lifeng, while the US team included Bessent and Greer, indicating the importance both sides placed on the talks [3] Group 2 - The agenda for the discussions included several contentious issues such as the US's "301 measures" against China's maritime logistics and shipbuilding industries, the extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl cooperation, agricultural trade, and export controls [3][5] - The atmosphere during the talks was reportedly better than expected, with both sides engaging in "candid, in-depth, and constructive exchanges" without resorting to blame [5][8] - The meeting was seen as a preparatory step for a potential meeting between the two countries' leaders, with the presence of President Trump in Kuala Lumpur adding significance to the discussions [5][7] Group 3 - Both sides are aware that continued confrontation would lead to mutual harm, and thus cooperation is viewed as the way forward, with the preliminary consensus reached during the talks providing reassurance to global markets [8][10] - The complexity of export controls remains a sticking point, with the US citing national security concerns while China perceives it as a form of technological blockade [5] - The outcome of the talks is still uncertain, as the implementation of any agreements will depend on the details and the willingness of both parties to compromise [8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. Positive signals from China-US negotiations have kept the risk appetite of risk assets at a high level. The release of the 15th Five-Year Plan communique has also received a positive response from the market [1]. - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips due to the continuous tightness in the mining end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold on dips in the long - term [1]. - For zinc, given the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. Consider gradually taking profits on long - short spreads between domestic and foreign markets and look for far - month reverse spread opportunities [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see due to uncertainties in the news and macro - aspects [3]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, with short - term macro uncertainties and potential price - supporting motives from Indonesian policies [3]. - For lead, the spot market is tight, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [6]. - For tin, the short - term domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand. It is advisable to follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and hold on dips in the long - term [10]. - For industrial silicon, the Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [13][16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the spot premium of SHFE copper decreased by 10, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 333, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 977. The LME inventory decreased by 575 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is affected by tariff negotiations and the 15th Five - Year Plan communique. There are still disturbances in the scrap copper supply in Anhui and other places, and the uncertainty of scrap copper supply disturbances will continue to increase in the fourth quarter and next year [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 70, and the social inventory decreased by 3,860. The LME inventory decreased by 4,550 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is flat, the demand for photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and there has been seasonal inventory accumulation during the festival and significant destocking after the festival. The global economic recovery is showing signs, but there are uncertainties in Sino - US economic and trade relations, and some European electrolytic aluminum plants have reduced production [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 90, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 459. The LME inventory increased by 2,900 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price oscillated upwards. The domestic and imported TC are showing a downward trend. The domestic mine is expected to be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas mine had an unexpected increase in the second quarter. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the export window has opened [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the SHFE nickel spot price increased by 700, and the LME inventory increased by 180 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is continuously increasing both at home and abroad. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end, and the policy has a motive to support prices [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and other prices remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel mill's production schedule in October increased slightly month - on - month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost of ferronickel and ferrochrome remains stable, and the inventory remains at a high level [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the spot premium decreased by 10, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 5,368. The LME inventory decreased by 4,375 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The tight spot market has driven up the lead price. The supply side has slow resumption of production, and the demand side has increased battery production but high finished - product inventory. The short - term supply - demand mismatch is serious [6]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the tin position increased by 4,095, and the LME inventory increased by 30 [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The tin price oscillated. The supply side has marginal improvement after the end of Yunnan Tin's maintenance, but there are still uncertainties overseas. The demand is mainly supported by rigidity, and the domestic short - term supply - demand is weak [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis decreased by 215, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 44 [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of Xinjiang's leading enterprises is stable, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season. The Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with monthly inventory accumulation of 4 - 5 million tons [13][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 600, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 60 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Similar to industrial silicon, the Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [16].

Core Insights - The fifth round of China-U.S. trade talks, held in Kuala Lumpur, is seen as a hopeful sign amidst global economic uncertainties, with both sides engaging in constructive discussions on various critical issues [1][3] - The talks covered maritime logistics, shipbuilding industry measures, tariff suspension periods, fentanyl issues, agricultural trade, and export controls, leading to some "preliminary consensus" [1][5] - The choice of Kuala Lumpur as a neutral venue facilitated a flexible environment for discussions, reducing political sensitivities and showcasing diplomatic strategies [3][5] Group 1 - The talks provide a new opportunity for both countries to avoid escalating trade frictions, indicating a recognition that continued confrontation could lead to broader economic crises [3][6] - The unified messaging from U.S. officials reflects a growing internal consensus on the complexities of U.S.-China economic relations, highlighting the potential impact on the U.S. supply chain and global trust in the dollar [3][6] - China's emphasis on mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation during the talks has garnered international praise, showcasing its diplomatic maturity [5][6] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. on October 30 in South Korea will be crucial in determining whether the "preliminary consensus" can evolve into a more substantial trade agreement [5][6] - The economic interdependence between China and the U.S. underscores the importance of dialogue and cooperation to resolve issues and achieve mutual benefits, particularly in agricultural procurement and rare earth supply chains [5][6] - The U.S. faces high domestic inflation and rising corporate costs, making excessive confrontation an impractical choice, which is reflected in the willingness to use terms like "agreement framework" to allow for future negotiations [6]

2025.10. 27 更多最新消息： 李成钢：中美就稳妥解决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识；不满加拿大反关税广告，特朗普宣布对加 方征收10%额外关税；俄美领导人布达佩斯会晤为何被"推迟"？俄外长披露沟通细节丨早报 微信编辑 | 七三 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com 本文字数：714，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻，当地时间10月25日至26日，中美双方在吉隆坡举行经贸磋商。中国商务部国际贸易谈 判代表兼副部长李成钢在磋商结束后对中外媒体记者表示，双方就妥善解决彼此关注的多项重要经贸 议题形成初步共识，下一步将履行各自国内批准程序。 "过去一个月左右的时间，中美经贸关系出现了一些震荡和波动，全球都非常关注。"李成钢说，自 今年5月中美日内瓦经贸会谈以来，中方严格遵循中美两国元首多次通话共识，诚信、认真落实经贸 磋商达成的共识安排，悉心呵护来之不易、相对稳定的中美经贸合作关系。"出现这些震荡和波动不 是中方愿意看 ...

Core Points - The recent round of economic and trade consultations between China and the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur resulted in a basic consensus on addressing mutual concerns, highlighting the importance of dialogue and constructive engagement [1][2] - The discussions covered a wide range of topics, including U.S. maritime logistics and shipbuilding industry measures, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl tariffs and enforcement cooperation, agricultural trade, and export controls, all of which are crucial for global supply chain stability [1][2] - Both countries emphasized the need to respect each other's long-standing interests while focusing on problem-solving and maintaining a cooperative dialogue to alleviate concerns and foster mutual development [1][3] Summary by Sections Economic Cooperation - The essence of U.S.-China economic relations is mutual benefit, where cooperation leads to gains for both sides, while conflict results in losses [2] - The commitment to avoid "decoupling" and to maintain a stable economic relationship is crucial for both nations and the international community [2][3] Strategic Direction - The consultations were guided by the important consensus reached by the leaders of both countries, which has set the tone for improving and developing U.S.-China relations [2] - The Chinese government is committed to expanding high-level openness, which will provide more opportunities for countries, including the U.S. [3] Future Outlook - The recent discussions are seen as a step towards ensuring the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of U.S.-China economic relations, benefiting both nations and the global community [3]

【环球时报赴马来西亚特派记者 曹师韵 环球时报记者 迟静怡 韩雯】10月26日，中美经贸团队在马来西 亚首都吉隆坡结束为期两天的磋商。双方以今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共识为引领，围绕美对华海 事物流和造船业301措施、延长对等关税暂停期、芬太尼关税和执法合作、农产品贸易、出口管制等双 方共同关心的重要经贸问题，进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流磋商，就解决各自关切的安排达成 基本共识。双方同意进一步确定具体细节，并履行各自国内批准程序。此次会谈的成果受到各方积极评 价。中国国家主席习近平将于10月30日至11月1日赴韩国庆州出席亚太经合组织（APEC）第三十二次 领导人非正式会议并对韩国进行国事访问。美方也确认美国总统特朗普将访问韩国。韩国《东亚日报》 称，全世界的目光都将集中在中美元首是否会举行会晤上。韩国纽西斯通讯社表示，中美贸易冲突对全 球影响重大，两国领导人能否会晤，备受瞩目。 彭博社称，美国贸易代表格里尔在记者会上说，中美贸易谈判富有成效，涉及各种议题，"谈到延长对 等关税暂停期，也谈到稀土"，双方正就一项贸易协议提案的最终细节进行讨论，几乎可以提交两国领 导人审议。 26日，美国总统特朗普在吉隆 ...

Core Points - The recent round of economic and trade consultations between China and the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur resulted in a basic consensus on addressing mutual concerns, highlighting the importance of dialogue and constructive engagement in resolving differences [1][2] - The discussions covered a wide range of topics, including U.S. maritime logistics and shipbuilding industry measures, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl tariffs and enforcement cooperation, agricultural trade, and export controls, all of which are crucial for global supply chain stability [1][2] - Both countries emphasized the need to respect each other's long-standing interests while focusing on problem-solving and maintaining a cooperative dialogue to alleviate concerns and foster mutual development [1][3] Summary by Sections Economic Cooperation - The essence of U.S.-China economic relations is mutual benefit, with both sides recognizing that cooperation leads to shared gains while conflict results in losses [2] - The commitment to avoid "decoupling" and to maintain a stable economic relationship is crucial for both nations and the international community [2] Strategic Direction - The consultations are guided by the important consensus reached by the leaders of both countries, which sets the tone for ongoing cooperation and dialogue [2] - China's recent policy direction emphasizes high-level openness and the provision of opportunities for global partners, including the U.S., as part of its development strategy [3] Future Outlook - The ongoing dialogue and cooperation are seen as essential for achieving a healthy, stable, and sustainable development of U.S.-China economic relations, ultimately benefiting the peoples of both nations and the global community [3]