Group 1 - The article highlights the release of final services PMI data from multiple European and American countries, which is crucial for assessing economic health [1] - The US ADP employment data is set to be published, providing insights into the labor market and potential economic trends [1] - The Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision, which could impact monetary policy and market expectations [1]

Economic Data Releases - Australia's Q1 GDP data will be released, providing insights into the country's economic performance [1] - France's final services PMI for May will be published, indicating the health of the services sector [2] - Germany's final services PMI for May will also be released, contributing to the understanding of the economic landscape [3] - The Eurozone's final services PMI for May will be available, reflecting the overall services sector performance in the region [4] - The UK's final services PMI for May will be announced, offering a glimpse into the British services industry [5] - The US ADP employment figures for May will be disclosed, which are crucial for assessing job market trends [6] - Federal Reserve's Bostic will participate in an event, potentially providing insights into monetary policy [7] - The final services PMI for May from S&P Global in the US will be released, further informing on the services sector [8] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, impacting monetary policy and economic outlook [9] - The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for May will be published, which is a key indicator of economic activity [10] - The EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 30 will be released, affecting energy market dynamics [11] - The Federal Reserve will publish its Beige Book on economic conditions, offering qualitative insights into the economy [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly due to recent attacks on Russian military airports by Ukraine, leading to increased market volatility and a rise in gold prices [1] - Gold prices experienced a decline of 2% last week, with a trading range of 110 points, indicating a downward trend but with intermittent rebounds, suggesting a need for continuous monitoring of market fluctuations [5] - The market is currently focused on upcoming employment data and manufacturing indices, which could impact gold prices, as well as central bank interest rate decisions from Canada and Europe [3] Group 2 - The analysis of gold's daily chart shows that despite a noticeable high-level pullback at the beginning of the week, gold prices have maintained support at 3240, indicating strong protective measures from moving averages [3] - The short-term trading strategy suggests a focus on resistance levels around 3338 and potential short positions if gold reaches 3310-3315, with a target support level at 3288 [5] - The MACD indicator's position near the zero line suggests a fierce battle between bulls and bears in the current market, indicating uncertainty in price direction [3]

（3）经济数据与政策：美国4月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数同比增长2.1%，低于预期的2.2%，这使得交易员继续押注美联储将在9月下调短期借贷成 本，利率期货显示美联储9月降息概率升至87%。美联储的货币政策预期对黄金影响重大，降息预期升温通常会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而利多黄金。 此外，美国联邦上诉法院上周四暂时恢复特朗普总统最全面的关税政策，此前美国贸易法院曾裁定其越权并阻止征收关税，关税政策的不确定性也对市场产 生了一定影响。 2、本周重点关注 （1）重要数据：本周将公布一系列重要经济数据，包括美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI、4 月 JOLTs 职位空缺、5 月 ADP 就业人数、5 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI、4 月贸易帐以及最受关注的 5 月非农就业报告等。 （2）央行政策动态：周三加拿大央行和周四欧洲央行将公布利率决议。如果央行维持利率不变或降息，会使得货币市场利率下降，持有黄金的机会成本降 低，对黄金价格形成支撑；若央行选择加息，则会提高持有黄金的机会成本，打压黄金价格。此外，虽然美联储6月15号才开会讨论利率，但市场对其加息 或降息的预期会提前反映在黄金价格波动上。若市场预期美联储 ...

金十整理：新西兰联储利率决议重点一览——有进一步降息的空间 5. 市场反应：利率决议公布后，纽元兑美元NZD/USD累计上涨约40点。 3. 利率预期：预计到2025年9月官方现金利率为3.12%（此前预测为3.23%）；到2026年6月官方现金利 率将维持在2.87%（之前预测为3.1%）；到2028年6月官方现金利率将维持在3.1%。有进一步适当降低 官方现金利率的空间，现金利率预期显示至少将再降息25个基点。 4. 经济前景：预计2025年第一季度GDP环比增长0.4%。经济中存在剩余产能；有能力应对国内外经济 形势的变化。海外关税政策和不确定性将减缓经济复苏。 1. 利率决议：新西兰联储将政策利率从3.50%下调至3.25%，为连续第六次降息，符合市场预期。委员 会讨论了维持利率不变或降息25个基点的选择方案，最终以5:1的投票比例同意降息。 2. 通胀预期：核心通胀率正在下降，通胀位于目标区间内。预计到2026年6月年度CPI将达到1.9%，低 于此前预测的2.2%。目前的形势表明，中期内通胀有望回归1%至3%目标区间的中位数水平。 ...

新西兰联储公布利率决议以来，纽元兑美元NZD/USD累计上涨约40点，现报0.5962。 ...

Core Insights - Interest rates are a core component of monetary policy adjustments by central banks, directly impacting the foreign exchange market through currency supply and demand, market expectations, capital flows, and policy differentiation [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Effects - Rate hikes attract capital inflows, reduce currency circulation, and strengthen the domestic currency, with the Federal Reserve's rate hikes typically leading to a stronger US dollar [2] - Rate cuts decrease the attractiveness of domestic assets, leading to capital outflows and currency depreciation [3] Group 2: Market Expectations - Market expectations often preemptively incorporate interest rate decisions, and discrepancies between actual decisions and expectations can lead to significant currency fluctuations [4] - Forward guidance from central banks directly influences market expectations, as indicated by Powell's comments in May 2025, which suggested a higher threshold for rate cuts, resulting in a short-term strengthening of the dollar [4] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - Tariff policies, such as those from the Trump administration, may increase inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates to control prices, indirectly supporting the dollar [5] - Differentiation in central bank rate decisions can lead to currency fluctuations, exemplified by the significant drop in the GBP against the NOK when the Bank of England cut rates while the Norwegian central bank held rates steady in May 2025 [5] Group 4: Arbitrage and Capital Flows - Interest rate differentials drive arbitrage, where investors borrow in low-rate currencies to invest in high-rate currency assets, increasing demand for high-rate currencies [6] - Changes in liquidity due to central bank balance sheet adjustments can indirectly alter exchange rates, as seen when the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction decreases dollar supply, potentially supporting its value [6] Group 5: Short-term vs Long-term Impacts - Short-term volatility in the foreign exchange market often occurs following interest rate announcements due to emotional market reactions [7] - Long-term currency trends are determined by the overarching direction of monetary policy [8] Group 6: Market Outlook - The current global monetary policy divergence, coupled with uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, has led to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [9] - Key areas for investor focus include the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, potential adjustments in response to inflation or economic data, geopolitical risks from escalating trade tensions, and emerging market currency crises [9] - Arbitrage opportunities driven by interest rate differentials and capital flows will remain central to short-term trading strategies [9]

澳元在澳洲联储 利率决议后下跌0.4%。 ...

澳洲联储 利率决议：关税最终范围及其他国家的政策应对措施仍存在很大不确定性。 ...

提醒：北京时间12:30，澳洲联储公布利率决议，澳洲联储主席布洛克召开货币政策新闻发布会。 ...