Group 1 - The Bank of England maintained the policy interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The voting ratio was 6:3, with members including Dingra, Ramsden, and Taylor supporting a rate cut [1] - The outlook for interest rates suggests a gradual and cautious approach, with Governor Bailey indicating rates will "gradually decline" [1] Group 2 - The second quarter GDP is projected to grow approximately 0.25% quarter-on-quarter, an increase from the previous forecast of 0.1% [1] - The mid-term CPI path risks are seen as two-sided, with significant wage slowdown expected for the remainder of the year [1] - CPI is anticipated to peak at 3.7% in September, remaining below 3.5% for the rest of the year [1] Group 3 - Preliminary analysis indicates that the impact of tariffs on global GDP may be smaller than previously expected in May [1] - Recent global developments did not significantly influence the decision to maintain interest rates in June [1] Group 4 - The GBP/USD exchange rate experienced a short-term decline, with traders increasing bets on an 80% probability of a rate cut in August [1] - There are expectations for an additional 50 basis points cut by the central bank within the year [1]

智通财经APP获悉，英国央行以比预期更分裂的投票结果将利率维持在4.25%不变。政策制定者在日益 紧张的地缘政治背景下，权衡了英国疲软的就业市场和低迷的经济增长。这一决定使得8月可能降息25 个基点的预期升温。 自预算案发布以来，英国就业人数已减少逾25万 交易员加大了对进一步降息的押注，完全消化了2025年再降息两次、每次25个基点的预期。这一重新定 价导致英镑和英国国债收益率下滑，10年期国债收益率从之前的4.53%降至约4.52%。周四英镑兑美元 下跌0.1%，至1.341美元。 道明证券高级欧洲和英国利率策略师普贾·库姆拉在彭博电视上表示："8月降息似乎已成定局。"她预计 在下次会议前将看到薪资和通胀数据逐步下降，但鉴于英国央行坚持"渐进且谨慎"的做法，她警告称不 太可能像欧洲央行那样连续降息。 英国央行九人货币政策委员会中，六名成员投票支持维持利率不变，而外部委员斯瓦蒂·丁格拉、艾伦· 泰勒以及副行长戴夫·拉姆斯登则倾向于立即降息25个基点。 会议纪要显示，随着就业市场持续疲软，委员会"预计今年剩余时间薪资增长将显著放缓"。纪要释放鸽 派信号称，"劳动力市场出现了一些更明显的反通胀压力迹象"。委员会 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions to Geopolitical Tensions - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.99% following Iran's missile launches towards Israel, marking a significant market reaction to escalating tensions [1] - Since the conflict began on the 13th, Iran has launched over 400 ballistic missiles and more than 1000 drones at Israel, resulting in 24 Israeli deaths and over 500 injuries [2] - Analysts warn that if the U.S. does not continue to support Israel's defense systems, they may only last about 10 more days against Iranian attacks [2] Group 2: U.S. Economic Policies and Market Impact - The Trump administration is advancing a new round of tariffs, including a significant expansion of tariffs on steel and aluminum products, which could impact various sectors including pharmaceuticals [4] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, with officials predicting worsening inflation in the coming months, indicating no immediate plans for rate cuts [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Shandong Gold reported a 36.81% increase in revenue to 25.935 billion yuan and a 46.62% increase in net profit to 1.026 billion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating strong profitability [10] - The company plans to produce no less than 50 tons of gold in 2025, having already achieved 24% of its annual target in the first quarter [10][11] - The company is progressing on its mining projects, including the San Shan Island gold mine, which has received a mining license for 4.95 million tons per year [11] Group 4: Industry Developments - Beijing's government has introduced measures to support the gaming and esports industry, including financial rewards for game development and innovation [8][9]

英国央行利率决议公布后，英国国债期货上涨约10个点。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England maintained interest rates as expected, but the voting showed a slightly dovish stance, leading to a short-term decline of the GBP/USD to 1.36 [1] - The 4H indicator in the monitoring tool indicates that the strongest resistance level is significantly above at 1.3499, with multiple strong resistance levels before reaching this point, suggesting a challenging rebound [1] - Overall, the market trend remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face considerable obstacles [1]

提醒：北京时间19:00，英国央行将公布利率决议。 ...

英国央行将于十分钟后公布利率决议及会议纪要。 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12575 | 50 07-08月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -45 | -15 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -9298 | 1617 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 179438 | -6446 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 114869 | -2110 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13550 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9350 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 445 | -50 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.39 | 0.22 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 18746.54 | 10187.11 进口数量:镍铁(月,万 ...

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-06-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 118890 | 410 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -180 | 10 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15095 | 160 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 75358 | -8756 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -13569 | 1455 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 203598 | -522 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 25693 | 77 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 16872 | -1320 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 21765 | -374 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 120325 | 500 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 120200 | 200 | | | 上 ...

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