商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 08 日 尿素：震荡有支撑 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,886 | 1,881 | 5 -25978 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,884 | 1,868 | 1 6 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 379,039 | 405,017 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 256,052 | 231,434 | 24618 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 4,970 | 4,970 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,428,441 | 1,513,204 | -84764 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | 1 4 | 9 | 5 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -36 | -61 | 2 5 | | | | 东光 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-05-07 供应端：截至2025-05-06，企业产能利用率86.30%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为119.17 万吨（+12.67），港口样 本库存量为11.80 万吨（+0.10）。 需求端：截至2025-05-06，复合肥产能利用率40.60%（-2.94%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为75.16%（+9.74%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.47日（+2.35）。 尿素出口放松的消息扰动盘面。新增装置投产，淡季储备货源释放，尿素产量维持高位。部分地区返青肥结束， 农业处于空档期，而南方地区降水偏少，水稻用肥需求后延且分散，工业需求复合肥开工率大幅下降，整体需求 较为分散，下游整体接货积极性不高，订单预收情况转弱。上游库存累积，中长期来看供应压力仍维持高位。内 盘尿素价格走低，而国际尿素价格小幅走高，尿素内外盘价差走高。进出口窗口维持关闭，国内出口政策维持收 紧情况下，未来短期国内企业参与出口可能性较低，港口未有明显变化，整体港口库存偏平稳运行，出口量维持 低位，建议持续关注尿素出口相关政策。 策略 中性，预计尿素行情延续窄幅震荡为主。 风险 出口扰动，尿素偏强震荡 市场分析 价格 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lower support for urea is increasing [1] - In the short - term, before the "boots land", urea is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, and the 9 - 1 month spread remains in a positive spread pattern [4] - This week, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to show a downward pattern [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,881 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,868 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the trading volume was 405,017 lots, a decrease of 591,451 lots; the open interest of the 09 contract was 231,434 lots, an increase of 18,240 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 4,970 tons, an increase of 111 tons; the trading volume was 1.513204 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.164616 billion yuan. The Shandong regional basis was - 1, up 6; the Fengxi - disk basis was - 61, up 26; the Dongguang - disk basis was - 91, down 24; the UR09 - UR01 spread was 86, up 7 [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea manufacturers remained unchanged, while others increased. For example, the price of Shandong Ruixing increased by 70 yuan to 1,840 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi Fengxi increased by 50 yuan to 1,820 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi regions also increased. The operating rate was 88.34%, up 0.39 percentage points, and the daily output was 203,720 tons, an increase of 900 tons [2] 2. Industry News - As of April 30, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.1267 million tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 11.90%. The industrial demand continued to weaken, agricultural fertilizer preparation was postponed, and the realization of high - price orders was slow, resulting in an increase in the inventory of some urea enterprises. However, due to the strong short - term speculation of traders, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to decline this week [3] - Fundamentally, the top - dressing demand in Northeast China and the summer fertilizer demand in Central China are being gradually released, and the grass - roots level is replenishing urea as a raw material for rigid demand. In addition, some off - market information has increased the short - term speculation of traders. Therefore, under the joint release of rigid demand and hoarding, the urea futures have risen sharply [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-4-30 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1800 | 1 0 | 09合约 | 1735 | -46 | 仓 单 | 4999 | 0 | | 山东现货 | 1800 | 1 0 | 基 差 | 6 5 | 5 6 | UR综合库存 | 118 2 . | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1820 | 0 | UR01 | 1712 | -30 | UR厂家库存 | 106 5 . | 0 0 . | | FOB中国 | 1948 | | UR05 | 1776 | -12 | UR港口库存 | 11 7 . | 0 0 . | | | | | UR09 | 1735 | -46 | | | | 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-4-28 • 主要逻辑：供应端高日产，需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1820 | -10 | 09合约 | 1757 | - 1 | 仓 单 | 5048 | 910 | | 山东现货 | 1830 | 0 | 基 差 | 6 3 | - 9 | UR综合库存 | 118 2 . | 16 4 . | | 河南现货 | 1820 | - 1 | UR01 | 1725 | - 1 | UR厂家库存 | 106 5 . | 15 9 . | | FOB中国 | 1946 | | UR05 | 1766 | 0 | UR港口库存 | 11 7 . | 0 5 . | | | | | UR09 | 1757 | - 1 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of urea remain weak, with limited incremental industrial demand. The futures market has a phased rebound, but the upside space is insufficient, and the medium - term logic remains weak [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea's main contract rose slightly on the day, while the spot market price continued to be weak. The demand activity was low, providing little support for the market. The futures may see a slight improvement in sentiment tomorrow. - On the supply side, the daily output fluctuated narrowly. From this week to May, more urea factories will resume production than have temporary inspections, so the daily supply may continue to rise, suppressing the market. - On the demand side, agricultural demand is sporadic. The next agricultural demand may be for summer fertilizer preparation in May, currently providing weak demand support. The main buyers are compound fertilizer factories and other industrial rigid - demand buyers. The decline in the operating load of compound fertilizer factories has slowed down. Spring fertilizer production is coming to an end, and North China's summer fertilizer production is expected to start soon, with a tendency to purchase, but the incremental demand is expected to be limited. Overall demand is weak, and although there will be some final purchases in the Northeast, the price boost will be limited under high supply. Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory this period, indicating insufficient overall downstream demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1756 yuan/ton and trended lower during the day, then rebounded slightly and finally closed at 1783 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The daily trading volume increased, and the open interest was 196,655 lots (+123,957 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 12,015 lots, and short positions increased by 11,229 lots. Donghai Futures' net long positions increased by 3,389 lots, Guantong Futures' net long positions increased by 3,688 lots; Yingda Futures' net short positions increased by 2,950 lots; Zhongrong Huixin's net short positions increased by 3,459 lots [2]. Spot - The spot market price continued to be weak, with low demand activity and little support for the market. The futures rebounded slightly today, and sentiment may improve slightly tomorrow. The mainstream ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1770 - 1810 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having lower prices; the price of small - particle urea in Shanxi is 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton, and the quoted price of large - particle urea has dropped to 1725 - 1760 yuan/ton [5]. Warehouse Receipt Data - On April 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4,260, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price rose. Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the September contract was 57 yuan/ton (-33 yuan/ton) [8]. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on April 22, 2025, the national daily urea output was 197,200 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 84.54% [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-4-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。供应方面，日产及开工率仍在高位，库存高位去库。需求端， 工业需求中复合肥开工下行，复合肥库存累库，三聚氰胺开工回升，农业需求短期进入弱势。尿 素出口政策尚无变化消息。短期盘面延续震荡概率较高。交割品现货1850（-0），基本面整体中 性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差90，升贴水比例4.9%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存101.8万吨（+6.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面短期震荡，日产高位，库存高位去库，复 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved, driving the rebound of urea futures and spot prices. Urea daily production is at a high level, increasing market supply. Agricultural demand is scattered, with fertilizer - preparation expectations in Northeast China and for southern rice. The domestic export policy remains tight, the export window is temporarily closed, and the export volume remains low. It is recommended to continuously monitor export - related policies. The urea market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On April 10, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,865 yuan/ton (+35). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,900 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,890 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu was 1,910 yuan/ton (+10). The Shandong basis was 25 yuan/ton (-25), the Henan basis was 35 yuan/ton (-15), and the Jiangsu basis was 45 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of April 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.41% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.37 million tons (+7.95), and the port sample inventory was 11.90 million tons (-0.10) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of April 10, 2025, the urea production profit was 304 yuan/ton (+10). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 48.89% (-3.48%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.63% (+4.45%) [1] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of April 10, 2025, the export profit was - 64 yuan/ton (+3). With the rise of domestic urea prices and a slight decline in international urea prices, the price difference between the domestic and international markets has decreased, and the export window is temporarily closed [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of April 10, 2025, the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 5.82 days (-0.83) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of April 10, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.37 million tons (+7.95), and the port sample inventory was 11.90 million tons (-0.10) [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that the urea market will experience short - term fluctuations. The fundamentals are generally neutral, with high daily production, significant inventory reduction, and potential demand boosts from increased exports of related products. It is recommended to keep an eye on low - level buying opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been fluctuating recently. Supply shows high daily production and high operating rates, with significant inventory reduction. The industrial demand includes a good operating rate for compound fertilizers and a neutral rate for melamine, while agricultural demand has limited short - term changes. There is no news of changes in urea export policies, but increased exports of related products like ammonium sulfate and boards may drive urea demand. The overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2505 contract is 25, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 874,000 tons, a decrease of 124,000 tons, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Given high daily production and rapid inventory reduction, the market is predicted to fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include cost support and marginal demand recovery, while negative factors are the overall weakness of commodities due to additional tariffs and ample supply. The main logic lies in high daily production on the supply side and marginal demand changes, with the main risk being changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The price of delivery - eligible urea is 1,890 yuan (+10), the Shandong spot price is 1,890 yuan (+10), the Henan spot price is 1,900 yuan, and the FOB China price is 2,026 yuan [4][6]. - **Futures**: The UR05 contract price is 1,865 yuan (+35), the UR01 contract price is 1,781 yuan (+30), and the UR09 contract price is 1,823 yuan (+32) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 874,000 tons (-124,000 tons), the warehouse receipt is 4,687 (-163), the UR factory inventory is 475,000 tons, and the UR port inventory is 120,000 tons [4][6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry's production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. For example, the production capacity increased from 2,245.5 in 2018 to 4,418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The consumption growth rate was 8.4% in 2024 [9].

【冠通研究】 行情弱势整理，基本面承压 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 9 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约低开高走震荡收涨，前半周受关税政策影响盘面弱势运行，现 货市场同样受情绪压制，两日降价后今日低价货源成交好转，触发部分工厂停售 或小幅调涨。供给端，春季多发临检本周仍有三家工厂有检修计划，但前期检修 企业也有复产，日产稳定为主，华锦、渭河等有检修计划，天庆田原等本周复产。 需求端，下游低价货源买进。水稻农需备肥零星跟进，下一轮集中备肥系 6 月左 右农需备肥，复合肥原料价格近日下降，利润回暖，但企业成品库存增加，工厂 开工负荷降低，春季肥已达尾声，夏季肥进展有限，预计本月开工负荷继续走低。 三聚氰胺开工率稳中上移，工业需求依然维持刚性。本期上游工厂出现累库，清 明假期期间下游接货力度不足，弱势低价下，需求跟进缓慢，工厂出现累库。整 体来说，尿素目前受宏观影响较小，基本面偏弱，需求端环比走弱，盘面震荡偏 弱为主，主力合约关注 1780-1900 元/吨区间宽幅震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2505 合约 1785 元/吨低开高走午后翻红，盘面震荡收 涨，最终收于 1830 元/吨，收成一根阳线， ...