交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-1 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 数据来源：钢联 大越期货整理 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国际局势波动导致尿素供应紧张，国际尿素价格偏强，影响 部分传导至国内市场。供应方面，开工率及日产均为近年新高，库存小幅波动。需求端，工业需 求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业需求预期再次转淡。尿素整体供过于求仍 明显，出口政策未放开。交割品现货1880（-0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差168，升贴水比例8.9%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存112万吨（+14），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Agricultural demand for urea is steadily rising as downstream agricultural top - dressing and fertilizer preparation continue, but industrial demand is weakening with declining capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and low - level operation of melamine [2] - Urea production is at a high level with few planned device overhauls, so supply pressure is large. However, due to the release of agricultural demand, factory pre - sales orders are increasing and enterprise inventories are decreasing [2] - In terms of exports, there is still port - collection demand, but the new export quota is unclear, and the export benefits are gradually weakening. Port inventories have increased significantly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report may use figures such as the Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, and Henan main - continuous basis to analyze the urea basis structure, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - The report likely uses figures on urea weekly production and urea device overhaul loss volume to analyze urea production, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report may analyze urea production profit and operating rate through figures including production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][21][29] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - The report may analyze urea offshore price and export profit using figures such as the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, FOB price of small - particle urea in China, CFR price of large - particle urea in China, urea export profit, and disk export profit, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [24][25][30] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - The report may analyze urea downstream operation and orders through figures including compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, melamine capacity utilization rate, and pre - order days of urea enterprises, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [41][43] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report may analyze urea inventory and warehouse receipts using figures such as upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][47][50]

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1] Group 2 - The core view is that the recent rumors of relaxed urea exports and the release of a new round of Indian tenders have boosted market sentiment. From the perspective of urea demand, June - July is still the peak season for top - dressing of northern corn, and the loosening of current export policies and price drops will stimulate speculative demand. So, the demand for urea in the next two months is not bad, and one can wait for the opportunity to go long after the spot price stabilizes [1] Group 3 Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01 was 1682 yuan/ton on June 26, down 15 yuan or 0.88% from June 25 [1] - UR05 was 1691 yuan/ton on June 26, down 14 yuan or 0.82% from June 25 [1] - UR09 was 1724 yuan/ton on June 26, down 16 yuan or 0.92% from June 25 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small Granules) - The price in Shandong was 1800 yuan/ton on June 26, up 40 yuan or 2.27% from June 25 [1] - The price in Henan was 1800 yuan/ton on June 26, up 30 yuan or 1.69% from June 25 [1] - The price in Hebei was 1800 yuan/ton on June 26, up 10 yuan or 0.56% from June 25 [1] - The price in Northeast was 1890 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The price in Jiangsu was 1810 yuan/ton on June 26, up 30 yuan or 1.69% from June 25 [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 109 yuan/ton on June 26, up 54 yuan from June 25 [1] - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 9 yuan/ton on June 26, down 1 yuan from June 25 [1] Upstream Costs - The anthracite price in Henan was 1080 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The anthracite price in Shanxi was 820 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2930 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan was 2520 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The melamine price in Shandong was 5083 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The melamine price in Jiangsu was 5300 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1738 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1741 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1698 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1724 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1720 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2509 was 233314 lots [1] Trading Strategy - On the previous trading day, UR fluctuated in a range and closed at 1724. Wait for the opportunity to go long after the spot price stabilizes [1]

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

出口相关利好传闻再次传出！印度开启新一轮高达200万吨的招标，在这些消息的推动下，尿素后市能 走多远？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire in the Middle East, geopolitical speculation may come to an end. In the future, two points need attention: the impact of coal market sentiment on coal - chemical industry may slow down, and urea demand in the next two months is expected to be good. Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On June 24, 2025, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, UR09 were 1667 yuan/ton, 1686 yuan/ton, 1698 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 19 yuan/ton (- 1.13%), - 17 yuan/ton (- 1.00%), - 13 yuan/ton (- 0.76%) compared to June 23. Domestic spot prices in different regions also showed certain changes, such as a - 20 yuan/ton (- 1.05%) change in the Northeast [1] Basis and Spread - On June 24, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was 64 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton compared to June 23. The 01 - 05 spread was - 19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream, the prices of some products like compound fertilizer and melamine were mostly stable, while the price of compound fertilizer in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1679 yuan/ton, the highest was 1726 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1672 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1698 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1698 yuan/ton, and the position was 247071 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities. Consider the risk of changes in export policies [1]

尿素日报 | 2025-06-25 供需延续宽松，尿素震荡偏弱 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-24，尿素主力收盘1698元/吨（-13）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1770元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：52 元/吨（+13）；河南基差：62元/吨（+13）；江苏基差：72元/吨（+13）；尿素生产利润220元/吨（+0），出口利润705 元/吨（+57）。 供应端：截至2025-06-24，企业产能利用率88.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为113.60 万吨（-4.11），港口样本 库存量为29.50 万吨（+5.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-24，复合肥产能利用率31.82%（-1.99%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.32%（+0.55%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日（+0.58）。 伊朗以色列地缘冲突有缓和迹象，尿素盘面重回基本面交易，供需延续宽松。尿素开工高位运行，装置检修计划 偏少，产量预计走高，供应端压力较大。尿素下游农业需求追肥补货需求释放，工厂预售订单 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国际局势波动导致尿素供应紧张，国际尿素价格上涨，影响 部分传导至国内期货及现货市场。供应方面，开工率及日产均为近年新高，库存有所回落。需求 端，工业需求中复合肥开工回落，三聚氰胺开工上升，农业需求有所回暖。尿素整体供过于求仍 明显，出口政策仍未放开。交割品现货1920（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差222，升贴水比例11.6%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存98万吨（-21.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，农业需求有所回暖，但整体供过于求 仍明显，预计UR今日走势震荡偏弱 尿素早报 2025-6-25 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、国际价格偏强 • 2、国内农需边际转好 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、库存同比偏高 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250624:等待现货企稳 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | | 单位 | 6月23日 | 6月20日 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 山东 期现价格 山西 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1686.00 1703.00 1750.00 | 1689.00 1709.00 1820.00 | -3.00 -6.00 -70.00 -40.00 | -0.18% -0.35% -3.85% -2.38% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1711.00 | 1730.00 | -19.00 | -1.10% | | | | | 元/吨 | 1640.00 | 1680.00 | | | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1760.00 | 1820.00 | -60.00 | -3.30% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1800 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to be weak in the short - term, with both futures and spot prices likely to decline [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review - Urea futures decreased with increased positions, closing at 1711 (-35/-2%) [3] - Spot market: The decline in factory - gate prices widened, and trading was sluggish. Factory - gate prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1730 - 1750 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1700 - 1810 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1760 - 1770 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1640 - 1700 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1760 - 1770 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1640 - 1700 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On June 23, the daily urea production was 19.98 tons, an increase of 0.47 tons from the previous workday and 2.86 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 86.31%, a 7.24% increase from 79.07% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - Market sentiment was still weak, with factory - gate prices in major regions falling more sharply and trading being sluggish. In Shandong, the mainstream factory - gate price led the decline, and it is expected to continue to fall. In Henan, the market sentiment was also weak, and the price is expected to decline. In the delivery area, the price is likely to keep falling [5] - Although some plants were under maintenance and the daily output dropped below 200,000 tons, it was still at the highest level in the same period. The international market price rose due to the Middle - East conflict, and the large price difference between domestic and international markets had a certain positive impact on the domestic market [5] - The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer plants in central and northern China was low, and the overall demand was declining. The inventory of urea production enterprises was still relatively high, but it decreased slightly to around 1.04 million tons this week [5] - After the Indian tender results were announced, the export orders increased, which boosted the market. However, as the price in the central mainstream delivery area rose, the downstream started to wait and see, and the spot price has been falling since the weekend, with weak order receipts [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bearish [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options on rebounds [6]