每经编辑｜段炼 8月9日，国家统计局公布7月CPI数据。 2025年7月份，全国居民消费价格同比持平。其中，城市持平，农村下降0.3%；食品价格下降1.6%，非食品价格上涨0.3%；消费品价格下降0.4%，服务价 格上涨0.5%。1—7月平均，全国居民消费价格比上年同期下降0.1%。 7月份，全国居民消费价格环比上涨0.4%。其中，城市上涨0.4%，农村上涨0.3%；食品价格下降0.2%，非食品价格上涨0.5%；消费品价格上涨0.2%，服务 价格上涨0.6%。 各类商品及服务价格同比变动情况 7月份，食品烟酒类价格同比下降0.8%，影响CPI（居民消费价格指数）下降约0.21个百分点。食品中，蛋类价格下降11.2%，影响CPI下降约0.07个百分 点；鲜菜价格下降7.6%，影响CPI下降约0.16个百分点；畜肉类价格下降4.6%，影响CPI下降约0.14个百分点，其中猪肉价格下降9.5%，影响CPI下降约 0.13个百分点；粮食价格下降1.0%，影响CPI下降约0.02个百分点；水产品价格上涨3.4%，影响CPI上涨约0.07个百分点；鲜果价格上涨2.8%，影响CPI上 涨约0.06个百分点。 其他七大类价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with urban prices unchanged and rural prices decreasing by 0.3% [1]. Group 1: Year-on-Year Price Changes - In July, food and tobacco prices decreased by 0.8%, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI decline [3]. - Specific food items saw significant price changes: egg prices fell by 11.2% (impacting CPI by -0.07 percentage points), fresh vegetable prices dropped by 7.6% (-0.16), and pork prices decreased by 9.5% (-0.13) [3]. - Other categories showed price increases: other goods and services rose by 8.0%, clothing by 1.7%, and living goods and services by 1.2% [3]. Group 2: Month-on-Month Price Changes - In July, food and tobacco prices decreased by 0.1%, leading to a CPI decline of about 0.04 percentage points [7]. - Fresh fruit prices fell by 3.4% (-0.07), while fresh vegetable prices increased by 1.3% (+0.03) [7]. - Other categories experienced price increases: transportation and communication rose by 1.5%, education and culture by 1.3%, and other goods and services by 0.9% [7].

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with urban prices unchanged and rural prices decreasing by 0.3% [2][8]. Price Changes by Category - In July, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, contributing to a 0.21 percentage point decline in CPI. Key contributors included: - Egg prices fell by 11.2%, impacting CPI by -0.07 percentage points - Fresh vegetable prices decreased by 7.6%, affecting CPI by -0.16 percentage points - Meat prices dropped by 4.6%, with pork prices specifically down by 9.5%, contributing -0.13 percentage points to CPI [4][6]. - Other categories saw price increases, with: - Other goods and services up by 8.0% - Clothing prices rising by 1.7% - Prices for living goods and services increasing by 1.2% - Education, culture, and entertainment prices up by 0.9% - Medical care prices rising by 0.5% - Housing prices increasing by 0.1% - Transportation and communication prices down by 3.1% [4][6]. Monthly Price Changes - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.4% in July, with urban areas rising by 0.4% and rural areas by 0.3%. Key changes included: - Food prices decreased by 0.2%, while non-food prices increased by 0.5% - Consumer goods prices rose by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.6% [2][7]. - Specific month-on-month changes in food prices included: - Fresh fruit prices decreased by 3.4%, impacting CPI by -0.07 percentage points - Fresh vegetable prices increased by 1.3%, contributing +0.03 percentage points to CPI - Meat prices rose by 0.4%, with pork prices up by 0.9% [6][9]. Summary of Key Data - The average CPI for January to July 2025 showed a decline of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [2][8]. - The overall CPI data for July 2025 indicated: - Urban CPI: 0.0% year-on-year, 0.4% month-on-month - Rural CPI: -0.3% year-on-year, 0.3% month-on-month - Food CPI: -1.6% year-on-year, -0.2% month-on-month - Non-food CPI: 0.3% year-on-year, 0.5% month-on-month [7][8].

Group 1 - In July 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with urban prices unchanged and rural prices down by 0.3% [1] - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, while non-food prices increased by 0.3% [1] - The average CPI from January to July 2025 decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - In July 2025, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with urban prices up by 0.4% and rural prices up by 0.3% [1] - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, while non-food prices increased by 0.5% [1] - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing to the overall CPI increase [1] Group 3 - In July 2025, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.21 percentage points [3] - Key contributors to the decline in food prices included eggs (down 11.2%), fresh vegetables (down 7.6%), and pork (down 9.5%) [3] - Other categories showed price increases, with other goods and services up by 8.0%, clothing by 1.7%, and living goods and services by 1.2% [3] Group 4 - Month-on-month, food, tobacco, and alcohol prices decreased by 0.1%, affecting the CPI by about 0.04 percentage points [7] - Fresh fruit prices fell by 3.4% month-on-month, while fresh vegetables rose by 1.3% [7] - Other categories saw price increases, with transportation and communication up by 1.5%, education and culture by 1.3%, and other goods and services by 0.9% [7]

Core Insights - In July 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with urban prices unchanged and rural prices decreasing by 0.3% [1] - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, while non-food prices increased by 0.3% [1] - The average CPI from January to July 2025 showed a decline of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] Year-on-Year Price Changes - In July, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, contributing to a 0.21 percentage point decline in CPI [3] - Specific food items such as eggs, fresh vegetables, and pork saw significant price drops of 11.2%, 7.6%, and 9.5% respectively, impacting CPI by 0.07, 0.16, and 0.13 percentage points [3] - Other categories showed price increases, with "other goods and services" rising by 8.0%, and education, culture, and entertainment prices increasing by 0.9% [3] Month-on-Month Price Changes - In July, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, leading to a 0.04 percentage point decline in CPI [7] - Fresh fruit prices dropped by 3.4%, while fresh vegetables increased by 1.3% month-on-month [7] - Other categories experienced price increases, with transportation and communication rising by 1.5% and education and culture by 1.3% [7] Detailed Price Index Data - The CPI for July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year change of 0.0% [9] - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year, while non-food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month and 0.3% year-on-year [9] - The index for transportation and communication saw a month-on-month increase of 1.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% [9]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China has shown a decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% in May, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% [1][4] - There is a discrepancy between the CPI statistics and individual consumer perceptions of price changes, which can be attributed to differences in consumption patterns, frequency of purchases, and the comparison of price points [2][3] Group 1: CPI and Consumer Perception - CPI is a comprehensive statistical indicator that reflects the price level changes of various consumer goods and services, covering eight major categories and 268 basic classifications [1] - Individual consumer experiences of price changes can vary significantly based on their consumption structure and regional differences, leading to a "temperature difference" in perception [2] - Consumers are generally more sensitive to price changes in frequently purchased essential goods, while changes in prices of infrequently purchased items may go unnoticed [2] Group 2: Impacts of Price Changes - A moderate decline in prices can lower consumer costs and enhance purchasing power, allowing consumers to allocate more funds to other areas such as cultural and tourism consumption [3][4] - However, sustained price declines can lead to negative economic consequences, including reduced investment, delayed consumer spending, and potential increases in unemployment, creating a feedback loop that further suppresses demand and prices [4] - Maintaining a moderate increase in prices is beneficial for economic stability, and recent policies aimed at boosting effective demand have shown positive results, with retail sales growing by 6.4% year-on-year in May, the highest monthly growth rate in 2024 [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of the year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Anyang City experienced a cumulative decline of 0.3%, aligning with the average level in Henan Province [1] Group 1: CPI Trends - The CPI in Anyang City showed a stable operation in the first half of the year, with service prices rising by 0.1%, non-food prices declining by 0.1%, food prices decreasing by 0.8%, and consumer goods prices falling by 0.6% [1] - The CPI's month-on-month growth exhibited a trend of rising initially and then declining throughout the first half of the year [2] Group 2: Monthly CPI Analysis - In January, the CPI rose significantly due to increased demand for food and services during the Spring Festival, but it saw a notable decline in February as the holiday effects faded [2] - March experienced a continued decrease in CPI as fresh produce prices fell due to increased supply, while April saw a narrowing of the decline due to rising gold prices [2] - In May, the implementation of centralized drug procurement policies led to a decrease in drug and medical device prices, contributing to a further decline in CPI [2] - June saw a mixed impact on CPI, with rising fresh vegetable prices due to high temperatures, but a decrease in prices for daily necessities and cultural entertainment due to promotional activities [2] Group 3: Year-on-Year CPI Changes - The CPI year-on-year showed a "V" shaped trend, with a 0.1% increase in January, followed by a decline in February, and a narrowing of the decline to 0.5% in March [3] - From April to May, the CPI continued to decline year-on-year, influenced by fluctuating gold prices and lower fuel prices [3] - By June, the year-on-year CPI turned around with increases in fresh vegetables and durable consumer goods prices, resulting in a 0.1% increase [3] Group 4: Non-Food Price Trends - Non-food prices in Anyang City saw a cumulative decline of 0.1%, with industrial product prices dropping by 0.3% [4] - The decline in education, culture, and entertainment prices was attributed to the increased substitution effect of online services and a seasonal drop in tourism demand [4] - In June, prices for new energy vehicles fell by 11%, and fuel vehicles saw a 3.9% decrease, contributing to a 3% decline in transportation and communication prices [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The CPI in Anyang City is expected to maintain a stable trend in the second half of the year, with potential price increases for fresh vegetables due to seasonal supply constraints [5] - The ongoing reduction in pig production capacity and upcoming holidays are anticipated to boost pork prices [5] - The automotive, cement, and photovoltaic industries are expected to see a moderate price recovery due to self-regulatory actions [5]

Market Performance - The South Korean stock market experienced a significant rebound, with the KOSPI index rising over 2% during intraday trading [2][3] - Key sectors such as information technology, healthcare, and finance showed strong performance, with IT and healthcare sectors increasing by over 3% [3] - Notable individual stock performances included SK Biopharma rising over 16% and Samsung SDI increasing over 12% [3] Economic Outlook - The South Korean government plans to utilize all policy tools, including fiscal, tax, and regulatory reforms, to achieve an economic growth forecast of 1% for the year, which is higher than the predictions from the Bank of Korea and the IMF [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, marking the second consecutive month of inflation above 2% [3][4] Price Trends - The prices of agricultural products, particularly fruits and vegetables, have surged due to extreme heat, with watermelon prices reaching an average of 33,337 KRW (approximately 173 RMB), a 33.7% increase from the previous month [6][7] - Other notable price increases include tomatoes, which saw a nearly 70% rise in average price compared to the previous month, and cabbage prices exceeding 6,000 KRW [6][7] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of July, South Korea's foreign exchange reserves increased by $1.13 billion to $411.33 billion, following a decline to a five-year low in May [5] - The increase in reserves was attributed to the issuance of new foreign exchange stabilization fund bonds and improved returns on foreign assets [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June 2025 has shown a new trend, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, ending a four-month decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, reaching a 14-month high [1] - In June, 14 provinces experienced a year-on-year increase in CPI, while 10 provinces saw a decline, indicating a shift in regional price trends [1] - The analysis by Wang Qing from Dongfang Jincheng highlights three main driving forces for the CPI's positive change: seasonal rise in vegetable prices, an increase in domestic energy prices due to international oil price fluctuations, and the support from the "old-for-new" policy [2] Group 2 - Future CPI trends are expected to show a low and moderate recovery, supported by stable economic performance and effective domestic demand policies [4] - Factors contributing to price stability include ongoing economic expansion, effective policies to boost consumption, and regulatory actions to curb disorderly price competition in various industries [5] - The holiday effect is anticipated to further stabilize or increase service-related prices, with several upcoming holidays expected to have a noticeable impact [5]

Income Analysis - The per capita disposable income in Sichuan reached 18,779 yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a nominal increase of 5.6% year-on-year and a real increase of 5.8% after adjusting for price factors [3][4] - The main sources of income, including wage income, operating net income, and transfer net income, all maintained growth, with nominal increases of 6.4%, 5.3%, and 5.8% respectively [3][4] - Wage income remains the primary support for income growth, accounting for 52.2% of per capita disposable income and contributing 58.5% to the increase [3] Consumption Analysis - Per capita consumption expenditure in Sichuan was 12,208 yuan in the first half of 2025, with a nominal growth of 6.2% and a real growth of 6.4% after price adjustments [4] - Rural residents experienced faster consumption growth compared to urban residents, and service consumption remained active, with all eight categories of consumption showing growth [4] - Per capita service consumption expenditure reached 5,295 yuan, growing by 6.8%, and service consumption accounted for 43.4% of total consumption expenditure [4] Price Trends - The consumer price index (CPI) in Sichuan decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, consistent with national trends, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% [5] - Positive changes in CPI were noted in June, indicating a potential improvement in the weak CPI trend, with the core CPI rising by 0.5% year-on-year [5] - The decline in pork prices was attributed to increased supply and seasonal demand fluctuations post-Chinese New Year [5]