[Table_Title] 为何核心 CPI 与经济数据存在"温差" [宏Ta观bl经e_济Rep分or析tD报ate告] | 2025.9.30 核心观点 韦志超 首席经济学家 SAC 执证编号：S0110520110004 weizhichao@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-81152692 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读本报告最后部分的重要法律声明 [Table_Rank] [Table_Authors] [Tabl今e_年Sum1-m8a月ry核] 心 CPI 环比累计上涨 0.9%，为疫情后偏高水平，但与今 年的经济数据似乎存在差异。具体来说，2025 年 1-8 月核心 CPI 环比累 计上涨 0.9%，高于 2022-2024 年同期水平，并与 2021 年同期持平。然 而，与市场普遍对 2021 年经济表现的"强劲"印象不同，当前的经济 形势与 2021 年呈现出显著差异，即使是今年表现较好的服务业 PMI 在 7 月份之前也持续低于 2021 年同期水平。 如果将 CPI 细项进行拆分，可以发现 2025 年 1-8 月环比累计增速中， 家用器具和黄金饰品价格的表现显著强于 2021 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In August, industrial production improved with the national above - scale industrial added value growing 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month, and 6.2% year - on - year from January to August. The decline of PPI narrowed, and CPI decreased year - on - year but was flat month - on - month. Core CPI increased for four consecutive months. Domestic consumption is expected to continue to recover in Q3 [3]. - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 0.5%, and a month - on - month decline of 0.20% in August. The third - industry investment was dragged down by real estate, but the investment structure continued to optimize [4]. - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 323906 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.6%, and 39668 billion yuan in August, with a year - on - year growth of 3.4%. The consumer market is recovering, but the demand foundation needs to be consolidated. In the real estate market, both investment and sales were under pressure from January to August [5]. Summary by Directory Growth: Steady Uptick - In August, the national above - scale industrial added value grew 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month, and 6.2% year - on - year from January to August. The equipment and high - tech manufacturing industries outperformed the overall level. Some product outputs increased significantly. However, external uncertainties remain [11]. Inflation: Month - on - Month Recovery - In August 2025, the national PPI decreased 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. The pressure on energy and raw material supply and demand eased marginally, some external - demand industries improved, and new - quality productivity industries and consumption - upgrade demand supported price increases. However, factors such as weak downstream demand and international input still restrict the full recovery of PPI, which is expected to continue a mild recovery [21]. - In August, CPI decreased 0.4% year - on - year and was flat month - on - month. Core CPI increased 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for four consecutive months. Food prices were the main drag, while non - food prices and service consumption showed positive trends. Domestic consumption is expected to continue to recover in Q3 [45]. Investment: Marginal Slowdown - From January to August 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 0.5%, and a month - on - month decline of 0.20% in August. The second - industry investment grew rapidly, while the third - industry investment was dragged down by real estate. Investment growth varied by region. Overall, the investment structure is optimizing, but the real estate market still drags down the overall investment [59]. Production: Continued Growth - From January to August 2025, the national above - scale industrial added value grew 6.2% year - on - year, with a 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month growth in August. The manufacturing industry maintained growth, and high - tech manufacturing outperformed. New kinetic energy products grew rapidly, and foreign trade also increased. However, the foundation for the continuous recovery of the industrial economy needs to be consolidated [63]. Consumption: Slowing Growth - From January to August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 323906 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.6%, and 39668 billion yuan in August, with a year - on - year growth of 3.4%. The consumer market showed the characteristics of stable growth in commodity consumption and resilience in service consumption. Online consumption grew rapidly. Overall, the consumer market is recovering, but the demand foundation needs to be consolidated [74]. Real Estate: Both Investment and Demand Under Pressure - From January to August, national real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decline of 12.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased, and sales were weak. The real estate market still faced downward pressure, but inventory reduction policies had some effects. The demand - side confidence needs to be restored [86]. Appendix - In August, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. Industrial production, services, market sales, fixed - asset investment, foreign trade, etc. all showed certain growth, and employment and prices were generally stable. However, there were still many external uncertainties, and the economy faced challenges [103].

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, reversing from a flat reading in the previous month, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year [5][6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous expansion in price increases for four consecutive months, driven by rising industrial consumer goods and service prices [5][6] Economic Indicators - In August, the CPI remained flat month-on-month, compared to a 0.4% increase in July, with food prices rising by 0.5% and non-food prices declining by 0.1% [3][6] - Food prices saw a year-on-year decline of 4.3% in August, with significant drops in pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, each exceeding 10% [5][6] Industrial and Service Prices - Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rose by 1.5% year-on-year in August, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with home appliances and entertainment goods contributing to this rise [6] - Service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year in August, reflecting a steady upward trend, influenced by increased demand for high-quality social services and summer travel [6] Policy and Market Outlook - The government aims to continue expanding domestic demand and implementing consumption-boosting initiatives, while also addressing capacity management in key industries to promote reasonable price recovery [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the expectation of economic prosperity may continue to influence style performance, with growth and cyclical sectors leading the market, increasing by 0.72% and 0.37% respectively [5][12][28] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year decline in August, with a decrease of 2.9%, which is 0.7 percentage points less than the previous month, indicating improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [17][21][28] - Import and export data for the first eight months of 2025 shows exports at 17.61 trillion yuan, up 6.9%, while imports decreased by 1.2% to 11.96 trillion yuan, reflecting a narrowing decline [21][28] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that stable funding is crucial for market support, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a fluctuation range of 1.52% from September 8 to September 12, 2025, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [27][28] - The industry and thematic allocation suggests focusing on growth sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing, as well as industries benefiting from domestic demand policies, including machinery, home appliances, and consumer electronics [28][39] - The report highlights the performance of various industry indices, with significant attention on sectors like electric equipment and basic chemicals, which are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy [28][39]

Economic Overview - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [2][3] - Food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices decreased by 0.1% [2] Year-on-Year Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily due to a 4.3% drop in food prices, with significant decreases in pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, all exceeding 10% [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking an increase for four consecutive months, driven by rising industrial consumer goods and service prices [3][4] Industrial Consumer Goods - Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with notable price rises in household appliances and entertainment durable goods [4] - The price increase in industrial consumer goods is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics and policies promoting consumption upgrades [4] Service Prices - Service prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year, supported by increased demand for high-quality social services and tourism during the summer [5] - Key service sectors such as medical and educational services saw price increases of 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, indicating a steady upward trend in service pricing [5] Future Outlook - The government aims to continue expanding domestic demand and implementing consumption-boosting initiatives to promote reasonable price recovery [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the consumer price index (CPI) in August remained low, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and sufficient market supply [1][2] - In August, the CPI remained flat month-on-month, with food prices increasing by 0.5% and non-food prices decreasing by 0.1% [1] - The year-on-year decline in food prices was significant, with an overall decrease of 4.3%, particularly in pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, which saw declines exceeding 10% [1][2] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous expansion in the price increase for four consecutive months, driven by rising industrial consumer goods and service prices [2][3] - Industrial consumer goods prices rose by 1.5% year-on-year in August, supported by policies promoting consumption upgrades and improved supply-demand dynamics [2] - Service prices also showed a steady increase, with a year-on-year rise of 0.6% in August, influenced by increased travel and cultural consumption during the summer [3] Group 3 - The market supply-demand relationship remains prominent, with consumer prices still at low levels, necessitating continued efforts to expand domestic demand and implement consumption-boosting initiatives [3] - The government aims to promote effective investment and enhance the construction of a unified national market to facilitate reasonable price recovery [3]

那么这一逻辑是否还会继续呢？从8月份出台的通胀数据看，似乎并不明显。8月CPI再次进入负值区 间，而且下跌幅度较大，说明经济内部的有效需求仍然较为疲弱，物价形势仍然较为严峻。 8月CPI环比涨幅为0，低于历史同期均值0.3%；同比由平转为下降0.4%。低于一致预期-0.2%，创近6个 月以来新低；环比持平，弱于季节规律，近10年同期均值为0.3%。CPI同比再度转负，主要受食品价格 弱势影响，当然基数上升也是拖累，最大的拖累项是食品，同比延续回落2.7个百分点至-4.3%，拖累 CPI同比0.8个百分点。 不过值得注意的是8月核心CPI同比上涨0.9%，已连续6个月回升，创近18个月新高。其中服务价格环比 持平，核心消费品价格表现仍偏强，汽车价格持平，家用器具价格环比上涨1.1%。主要原因认为归于 国家的补贴政策，以旧换新的消费刺激政策。 8月PPI同比-2.9%，高于前值-3.6%，持平一致预期；环比由跌转平，结束了连续8个月的下行，持平季 节性均值（近10年同期环比均值为-0.01%）。主要原因是"反内卷"导致煤炭、黑色、玻璃等行业价格上 涨，如PPI煤炭开采、煤炭加工、黑色采选、黑色冶炼、玻璃制造价格环 ...

Group 1: Inflation Trends - In August, the core CPI and PPI both showed year-on-year improvement, driven by simultaneous policy efforts on both supply and demand sides[6] - The core CPI year-on-year growth has expanded for four consecutive months, with industrial consumer goods prices improving due to consumption promotion policies[6] - The CPI in August was -0.4%, while the core CPI was 0.9%, indicating a significant divergence primarily due to the drag from pork prices[6] Group 2: PPI Dynamics - The PPI year-on-year decline has narrowed for the first time since March, indicating a shift towards more positive signals driven by domestic demand[6] - Key sectors like black metal smelting saw PPI improvements, with year-on-year declines of -4% compared to -10% previously, reflecting better pricing and production conditions[6] - Emerging industries are expected to continue supporting PPI growth, with sectors like electronic materials and smart drones showing stable performance[6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Policy Impact - Upgrading consumption demand remains a crucial support for PPI, with certain sectors like sports equipment and nutritional food manufacturing showing year-on-year PPI growth of no less than 0.9%[6] - Policies aimed at enhancing consumer sentiment, such as "old-for-new" exchanges, are expected to further stimulate service consumption[6] - The overall external trade environment remains challenging, but domestic demand is anticipated to be the main driver for future recovery in both CPI and PPI[6]

Group 1 - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Sichuan experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.1%, reversing a previous increase of 0.4%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, with the decline widening by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The month-on-month decline in CPI was influenced by three main factors: the end of the summer travel peak leading to a significant drop in air ticket prices by 11.9%, a reduction in refined oil prices, and seasonal discounts on certain clothing items [1] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily driven by decreases in the prices of pork, fresh vegetables, and gasoline [1] Group 2 - In August, the price of pork decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 20.1% year-on-year, attributed to the concentrated market release of pigs and the off-peak consumption season [1] - Fresh vegetable prices increased by 3.4% month-on-month but decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, while fresh fruit prices fell by 3.7% month-on-month and by 4.6% year-on-year [1] - The effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption are becoming evident, with household appliance prices rising by 3.1% year-on-year and durable entertainment goods increasing by 2.4% year-on-year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The August CPI turned negative at -0.4% year-on-year, primarily driven by a decline in food prices, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [2][3] - Core CPI continues to improve, reaching 0.9% year-on-year, supported by rising prices of gold and platinum jewelry, as well as services [4][5] CPI Analysis - The food price index fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with fresh vegetables, fruits, and pork contributing significantly to the decline [3][4] - The drop in vegetable and pork prices may not be sustained due to high base effects from last year, where prices surged due to extreme weather conditions [3][4] - The core CPI's increase is attributed to a 37.1% rise in gold jewelry prices and a 27.3% rise in platinum jewelry prices, contributing 0.31 percentage points to the core CPI [5][6] PPI Analysis - The PPI ended its downward trend, remaining flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a narrowing of the drop by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [8][9] - The "anti-involution" effect is beginning to show, but its impact on prices is limited, with various industries experiencing reduced price declines [8][9] - Predictions indicate that the PPI may have reached its bottom in July, with future declines expected to narrow, although a positive trend in the next year remains challenging [9][10] Consumer Goods and Services - Prices of durable goods are showing improvement, with household appliances increasing by 4.6% year-on-year and communication tools by 0.8% [6][7] - The automotive sector is experiencing a reduction in price declines due to improved competition management, with fuel vehicle prices decreasing by 2.3% year-on-year [6][7] - Despite the rise in consumer prices for certain goods, the PPI for related industries has not improved, indicating a potential slowdown in demand [6][7]