Group 1: Core Insights - The ongoing U.S. debt crisis is becoming a central driver of gold price volatility, influenced by geopolitical risks and the countdown to potential U.S. debt default [1] - The U.S. Treasury is nearing its debt ceiling, with Secretary Yellen warning that the limit will be officially reached, halting new debt issuance [2] - A significant imbalance in supply and demand is emerging, as foreign official buyers are refusing to purchase long-term U.S. bonds, which could lead to a vicious cycle of rising debt servicing costs [3] Group 2: Market Impact - The threat of U.S. debt default has triggered an influx of safe-haven investments into gold, with spot gold prices reported at $3,377.27 per ounce [5] - If a debt agreement is reached, the Federal Reserve is expected to become a major buyer of U.S. debt, potentially leading to inflationary pressures that could push gold prices to historical highs [6] - Conversely, if an agreement is not reached, the resulting market turmoil will also support gold prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [6] Group 3: Investment Strategies - IEXS provides customized solutions for investors to capture gold market opportunities, including real-time price tracking and professional analysis tools [7] - Recommended trading strategies include using a combination of options and phased entry into positions, utilizing gold ETFs or spot contracts for risk hedging [7] - The company employs a proprietary crisis warning system to monitor key indicators and dynamically adjust portfolio allocations [7]

Group 1 - The article promotes a VIP membership that offers a discount of 600 yuan and a complimentary book titled "The Golden Perspective" by Tan Shu, which analyzes various aspects such as central bank actions, European and American debt, and the U.S. stock market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that May's inflation and export data are weak, leading to a continued loose state of interbank liquidity and a slight decline in government bond yields [1] - The U.S. inflation weakening and cooling employment have expanded expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, resulting in a significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.64%, with a change of -1.1 basis points from the previous week [1] Group 2 - There is an increasing probability of global economic recession risks due to uncertainties in the global macro environment and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Domestic monetary policy easing is less than expected, leading to risks of rising funding prices, while the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies is also below expectations, resulting in declining financing demand [1] - The intensification of overseas geopolitical conflicts contributes to a complex and severe global political situation, with ongoing deterioration and expansion of geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3 - The 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) employs an optimized sampling replication strategy to closely track the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year Treasury Index, selecting highly liquid government bonds to construct its portfolio [1] - The current average duration of the portfolio is 7.6 years, and it publishes a daily PCF list, ensuring transparency in holdings, making it suitable for medium to long-term investors seeking stable returns [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department reported significant selling of U.S. Treasury bonds in April 2025, with a total reduction of $36.1 billion in holdings by major foreign investors, raising concerns about international confidence in U.S. debt and its implications for U.S.-Canada relations [1][6]. Group 1: International Capital Flows - In April 2025, major foreign investors reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $36.1 billion, with official foreign investors decreasing their holdings by $8.7 billion [1]. - Canada significantly cut its holdings by over 13%, selling $57.8 billion worth of U.S. debt, which contributed to a total decline of $26.1 billion among the top ten foreign holders [6]. - Japan increased its holdings by $3.7 billion to $1,134.5 billion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt [4]. Group 2: U.S. Debt and Economic Implications - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a fiscal deficit exceeding $1.3 trillion for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year [8]. - The U.S. Treasury will face approximately $7 trillion in maturing federal debt in 2025, marking the largest debt maturity in U.S. history [9]. - Moody's downgraded the U.S. long-term credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising debt and interest payment ratios significantly above those of similarly rated countries [7][10]. Group 3: Legislative and Fiscal Policy Changes - The U.S. Congress passed a large tax and spending bill that extends tax cuts from the Trump administration and increases defense spending, which is expected to exacerbate the fiscal deficit [10][11]. - Moody's projects that the U.S. federal debt burden could reach 134% of GDP by 2035, with deficits potentially rising to 9% of GDP [10].

金十数据6月19日讯，美国财政部周三公布的数据显示，4月份外国投资者持有的美国国债较历史最高水 平小幅下降，表明尽管特朗普总统反复无常的关税政策对市场造成冲击，但并未出现大幅抛售。外国投 资者持有的美国国债从3月份创下的9.049万亿美元的历史高点降至9.013万亿美元，为五个月来首次下 降。此前，美国于4月2日宣布征收关税，导致股市和美元下跌，美国国债波动。"至于人们是否真的担 心会出现大规模美债抛售潮，我们从这些数据中看到的情况其实并非如此，"Credit Sights驻夏洛特的投 资级和宏观策略主管Zachary Griffiths表示。"这波卖出相当温和。" 4月美债风波：外国投资者持有规模5个月来首次下降 但仍维持在高位 ...

中国4月份减持美债 英国、日本增持 金十数据6月19日讯，美国财政部数据显示，中国在四月份持有的美国国债为7570亿美元，较三月份的 7650亿美元有所减少；英国持有量为8080亿美元，较三月份的7790亿美元有所增加；日本持有量为 1.135万亿美元，3月份为1.131万亿美元。 ...

"新债王"Gundlach：美债收益率曲线趋陡将延续下去。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida predicts that the yield curve for 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds will steepen [1] Group 1 - The steepening of the yield curve is expected to reflect a stronger economic outlook and potential interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve [1] - Clarida's insights suggest that market participants should prepare for changes in bond market dynamics as economic conditions evolve [1] - The anticipated shift in the yield curve may impact investment strategies and asset allocation decisions across various sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Former Federal Reserve official Clarida expects the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve to steepen [1] Group 1 - Clarida's prediction indicates a potential shift in interest rates, which could impact borrowing costs and investment strategies [1] - A steepening yield curve often reflects expectations of economic growth and inflation, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024, which has led to a slight decrease in the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield as traders react to the updated economic outlook [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - In the June dot plot, Federal Reserve officials reduced their expectations for the number of interest rate cuts by the end of 2027 [1] - The Fed now projects economic growth rates of 1.4% for this year and 1.6% for next year, down from previous estimates of 1.7% and 1.8% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the dot plot, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a slight decline, indicating traders' responses to the Fed's economic growth slowdown predictions [1]