智通财经APP注意到，美国最高法院即将就前总统特朗普运用紧急关税权力作出裁决，该决定可能震动 金融市场，若大法官们推翻相关关税则影响尤甚。 此案最早可能于周五宣判，将决定特朗普能否在未经国会批准的情况下，依据《国际紧急经济权力法》 征收关税。在11月的口头辩论中，大法官们对特朗普征收关税的权力表示了质疑。目前，线上预测市场 认为法院维持关税的概率为30%。 分析师和投资者表示，若关税被推翻，可能影响政府收入，推高美债收益率，并在股市引发新一轮波 动。 KEY Advisors财富管理公司首席执行官埃迪·加布尔表示，"我们从未见过一项裁决能产生如此巨大的经 济影响，""如果最高法院作出不利于总统的裁决，并迫使政府退还所有关税，那对市场将是重大利空。 这相当于从系统中抽走流动性。" 去年四月特朗普宣布加征关税时，股市下跌近5%，美债收益率最初也大幅下挫，因投资者为规避不确 定性而涌入避险资产。此后股市反弹，2025年累计上涨超16%，并在此过程中屡创新高。 股市或迎短期提振，但风险犹存 一些投资者认为，如果法院撤销现有关税，股市可能反弹，对那些不得不承担高额进口成本的公司尤其 如此。 一些投资顾问已开始将资金投向 ...

当地时间12月18日，美国财政部公布的数据引发全球关注。数据显示，10月某主要持有国减持118亿美 元美债，其持有规模降至6887亿美元，为2008年以来最低水平。尽管同期日本、英国选择增持，但这一 主要持有国的大量减持动作，还是让市场神经紧绷。 如今的美债早已风光不再。美国联邦政府债务总额已突破38万亿美元，这个数字令人咋舌。据美国联合 经济委员会估算，过去一年，美国国债总额每秒以69713.82美元的速度增长，距离突破37万亿美元仅过 去两个多月，债务激增速度如滚雪球般难以遏制。 在全球经济格局深刻调整的当下，美债的吸引力持续下降。各国都在根据自身经济战略和风险考量，调 整外汇储备结构。抛售美债的举动，不仅是经济层面的选择，更是对美国经济现状和未来走向的谨慎判 断。抛售多少无关紧要，主要是还有多少？ 债务激增带来的利息压力也愈发沉重。2025财年，美国联邦政府国债利息支出将高达1.2万亿美元，这 可不是个小数目，相当于不少中等规模国家一年的财政收入。如此庞大的债务规模和利息支出，让美国 政府财政压力巨大，也让全球投资者对美债信心下降，纷纷选择抛售。 ...

Group 1 - In July, China increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds by approximately 1 billion USD, signaling a complex dynamic in monetary policy decisions and interest rate paths [1] - The Federal Reserve's hesitation to lower interest rates may be influenced by speculation on whether China will sell off its US debt, which could lead to market volatility and rising yields [1] - The relationship between China's actions in the US bond market and the timing of interest rate cuts is perceived as a strategic variable in an ongoing game between the two nations [1] Group 2 - The tools available to the US for containing China's rise are becoming increasingly complex, with traditional methods like technology restrictions and supply chain control showing signs of instability [2] - The ongoing US-China competition raises questions about the solidity of America's leading advantages, suggesting a potential shift in dependency dynamics between the two countries [2] - The US Treasury Secretary's remarks highlight a fundamental characteristic of current US-China relations, indicating a lack of trust and misalignment on core interests [2] Group 3 - China is making significant advancements in high-end technology sectors, reducing its reliance on the US and even surpassing in certain areas [4] - The US's repeated delays in tariff negotiations reflect an increasing need for cooperation with China on critical issues such as agricultural markets and debt arrangements [4] - The evolving geopolitical landscape, with strengthened ties between China, Russia, and India, complicates the US's strategy to contain China, as regional players are becoming more influential [5] Group 4 - The dynamics of US-China relations are undergoing a fundamental shift, with the significance of future tariff agreements becoming more symbolic rather than decisive [7]

Group 1 - The article highlights widespread public dissent against the current administration, with over 1,600 protests occurring simultaneously across the U.S. on July 17, criticizing cuts to healthcare and welfare programs [1] - Legal actions have been initiated by 20 states against the administration for allegedly illegal cuts to essential programs, exacerbated by recent natural disasters [1] - Farmers in Texas are facing significant challenges due to a 30% increase in import prices for agricultural machinery parts, leading to public demonstrations [1] Group 2 - The administration's proposed 30% tariffs on the EU have backfired, with the EU extending the suspension of retaliatory tariffs, causing distress among German automakers [3] - A split within the Republican party has emerged, with four members opposing the administration's tariff strategy, leading to a requirement for congressional approval before further tariff increases [3] - Public sentiment is shifting negatively, with a Yale University study indicating that households may incur an additional $3,800 annually due to these tariffs, contributing to a drop in approval ratings to 43% [3] Group 3 - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, selling $189 billion in March and $413 billion in July, which has impacted the U.S. bond market and increased yields [5] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that continued tariff increases could slow U.S. economic growth to 1.2% by 2025, prompting concerns from major corporations [5] - Boeing's CEO has publicly criticized the tariff strategy, likening it to adding weight to an aircraft, which hinders performance and increases operational costs [5] Group 4 - The article discusses the broader implications of the "America First" policy, which has led to unintended consequences, including rising inflation and consumer costs [7] - The administration's tariff strategy has not only failed to pressure the EU but has also created internal economic challenges, with consumers bearing the brunt of increased living costs [7] - The article concludes that the administration's policy decisions may ultimately harm its own interests, as the consequences of the tariff strategy become increasingly evident [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights the shift in U.S. Treasury bond ownership, with Japan and the UK increasing their holdings while China continues to reduce its investments, indicating a strategic move amidst global economic uncertainties [1][3][5] - In April, Japan increased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $3.7 billion, reaching a total of $1,134.5 billion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder [1] - The UK raised its holdings by $28.4 billion to $807.7 billion, remaining the second-largest holder of U.S. debt [1] Group 2 - China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $8.2 billion to $757.2 billion, marking the second consecutive month of reduction, reflecting a strategy to diversify risks and reduce volatility in foreign reserves [1][3][5] - The reduction in Chinese holdings is linked to broader economic adjustments and concerns over U.S. policies, particularly in the context of rising global economic uncertainties [3][5] - The U.S. Treasury market experienced significant selling pressure in April, with the 30-year bond yield seeing its largest weekly increase since 1987, indicating growing concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [3][5][7] Group 3 - U.S. political dynamics are influencing monetary policy, with President Trump criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, which adds tension between the White House and the Fed [5][7] - The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are prompting both countries to reassess their financial strategies, with China’s reduction in U.S. debt holdings seen as a precautionary measure [5][7] - The declining attractiveness of the U.S. dollar and the credibility of U.S. government backing for Treasury bonds are becoming increasingly questioned, as evidenced by the actions of both China and Canada in selling off U.S. debt [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department reported significant selling of U.S. Treasury bonds in April 2025, with a total reduction of $36.1 billion in holdings by major foreign investors, raising concerns about international confidence in U.S. debt and its implications for U.S.-Canada relations [1][6]. Group 1: International Capital Flows - In April 2025, major foreign investors reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $36.1 billion, with official foreign investors decreasing their holdings by $8.7 billion [1]. - Canada significantly cut its holdings by over 13%, selling $57.8 billion worth of U.S. debt, which contributed to a total decline of $26.1 billion among the top ten foreign holders [6]. - Japan increased its holdings by $3.7 billion to $1,134.5 billion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt [4]. Group 2: U.S. Debt and Economic Implications - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a fiscal deficit exceeding $1.3 trillion for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year [8]. - The U.S. Treasury will face approximately $7 trillion in maturing federal debt in 2025, marking the largest debt maturity in U.S. history [9]. - Moody's downgraded the U.S. long-term credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising debt and interest payment ratios significantly above those of similarly rated countries [7][10]. Group 3: Legislative and Fiscal Policy Changes - The U.S. Congress passed a large tax and spending bill that extends tax cuts from the Trump administration and increases defense spending, which is expected to exacerbate the fiscal deficit [10][11]. - Moody's projects that the U.S. federal debt burden could reach 134% of GDP by 2035, with deficits potentially rising to 9% of GDP [10].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, reassured that U.S. government bonds will "never default," despite warnings from industry leaders about a potential collapse in the bond market [1][3] - The U.S. is facing significant pressure regarding its debt situation, with concerns raised about the government's increasing debt and its impact on the bond market [5][8] - China, as the second-largest holder of U.S. debt, has significantly reduced its holdings, selling $18.9 billion in March alone, and its total holdings have decreased by 42% from peak levels [3][5] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing unprecedented sell-offs, with U.S. bond yields rising nearly 20 basis points, marking the largest volatility in 20 years [3][5] - There are growing concerns among U.S. lawmakers and business leaders that the increasing government debt could lead to the bond market exerting control over national policies [5][8] - The U.S. government is under pressure to negotiate with China to encourage more purchases of U.S. debt, but China's recent actions indicate a clear stance against this [8]

Group 1 - Japan is unlikely to sell its large holdings of US Treasury bonds despite the recent drop in bond prices, as there are no better alternative investments available [1][2] - Japan, like other countries, prefers to hold US dollars for foreign exchange reserves rather than euros, due to the depth of the US capital markets and the strong technological competitiveness of the US [2] - The dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, with a current share of 58% in global foreign exchange reserves, although this is the lowest level in decades [5] Group 2 - There are doubts about the euro's potential to replace the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, primarily due to political fragmentation in Europe and the lack of depth in European capital markets [4][5] - The influence of the Chinese yuan is seen as more promising in challenging the dollar's dominance in Asia, with an increasing amount of trade being settled in yuan [5] - The euro currently accounts for 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, significantly lower than the dollar's share [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in Trump's attitude towards China following the consensus on tax reductions, indicating a growing urgency to engage with China despite previous aggressive stances [1][3]. - Trump's previous confidence in China's willingness to negotiate has turned into a desperate need for dialogue, as he seeks to visit Beijing and has expressed a desire for direct talks [1][3]. - The article suggests that the pressure on Trump has increased due to the adverse effects of the trade war on the U.S. economy, leading him to seek a meeting with China to secure favorable conditions before losing leverage [3][5]. Group 2 - The article notes that China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, selling $18.9 billion in March, which has resulted in China losing its position as the second-largest holder of U.S. debt, now held by the United Kingdom [4][5]. - The shift in debt ownership from China to the UK raises concerns about the stability of the U.S. economy, as both Japan and the UK are struggling to manage their roles in holding U.S. debt [5][6]. - Trump's contradictory approach towards China is evident, as he seeks assistance while simultaneously attempting to contain China's growth, reflecting a divided strategy in U.S.-China relations [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The Trump tax - cut bill barely passed in the House of Representatives and still faces challenges in the Senate. Fed理事沃勒 said the tax - cut bill triggered the selling of US Treasuries, and if tariffs stabilize, there may be an interest rate cut in the second half of the year. US May Markit manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations and expanded, with the price index rising again. The Eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly contracted, and the service sector had its worst performance in 16 months. After the US - Japan finance ministers' meeting, the US said "no exchange - rate discussion, the current exchange rate reflects fundamentals", and Japan said "no discussion on US Treasuries". In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the equity index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Recently, the market has entered a data vacuum zone, lacking new positive or negative factors, and oscillation has become the consensus. From the futures trend, the long - and short - side forces are evenly matched. During the oscillation period, when it touches the upper or lower limit of the range, there will be short - term confrontations between the long and short sides. Without incremental information or fundamental data guidance in the short term, the oscillation pattern is expected to continue, and the market may continue to focus on spread mining [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Equity Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.05%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.1%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.7%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.81% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.0%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.0% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible oscillating operation with adjustment risks [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 300 Main Continuous | 3879.60 | - 0.05 | 52835 | 143884 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | SSE 50 Main Continuous | 2715.40 | 0.10 | 28918 | 51342 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 500 Main Continuous | 5614.80 | - 0.70 | 53832 | 116140 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 1000 Main Continuous | 5950.00 | - 0.81 | 148619 | 195203 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 108.81 | 0.01 | 65126 | 156071 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 105.98 | - 0.00 | 47004 | 116615 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 30 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 119.52 | - 0.04 | 67554 | 82843 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 102.37 | - 0.00 | 34274 | 100554 | [12]