Group 1 - The article highlights widespread public dissent against the current administration, with over 1,600 protests occurring simultaneously across the U.S. on July 17, criticizing cuts to healthcare and welfare programs [1] - Legal actions have been initiated by 20 states against the administration for allegedly illegal cuts to essential programs, exacerbated by recent natural disasters [1] - Farmers in Texas are facing significant challenges due to a 30% increase in import prices for agricultural machinery parts, leading to public demonstrations [1] Group 2 - The administration's proposed 30% tariffs on the EU have backfired, with the EU extending the suspension of retaliatory tariffs, causing distress among German automakers [3] - A split within the Republican party has emerged, with four members opposing the administration's tariff strategy, leading to a requirement for congressional approval before further tariff increases [3] - Public sentiment is shifting negatively, with a Yale University study indicating that households may incur an additional $3,800 annually due to these tariffs, contributing to a drop in approval ratings to 43% [3] Group 3 - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, selling $189 billion in March and $413 billion in July, which has impacted the U.S. bond market and increased yields [5] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that continued tariff increases could slow U.S. economic growth to 1.2% by 2025, prompting concerns from major corporations [5] - Boeing's CEO has publicly criticized the tariff strategy, likening it to adding weight to an aircraft, which hinders performance and increases operational costs [5] Group 4 - The article discusses the broader implications of the "America First" policy, which has led to unintended consequences, including rising inflation and consumer costs [7] - The administration's tariff strategy has not only failed to pressure the EU but has also created internal economic challenges, with consumers bearing the brunt of increased living costs [7] - The article concludes that the administration's policy decisions may ultimately harm its own interests, as the consequences of the tariff strategy become increasingly evident [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights the shift in U.S. Treasury bond ownership, with Japan and the UK increasing their holdings while China continues to reduce its investments, indicating a strategic move amidst global economic uncertainties [1][3][5] - In April, Japan increased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $3.7 billion, reaching a total of $1,134.5 billion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder [1] - The UK raised its holdings by $28.4 billion to $807.7 billion, remaining the second-largest holder of U.S. debt [1] Group 2 - China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $8.2 billion to $757.2 billion, marking the second consecutive month of reduction, reflecting a strategy to diversify risks and reduce volatility in foreign reserves [1][3][5] - The reduction in Chinese holdings is linked to broader economic adjustments and concerns over U.S. policies, particularly in the context of rising global economic uncertainties [3][5] - The U.S. Treasury market experienced significant selling pressure in April, with the 30-year bond yield seeing its largest weekly increase since 1987, indicating growing concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [3][5][7] Group 3 - U.S. political dynamics are influencing monetary policy, with President Trump criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, which adds tension between the White House and the Fed [5][7] - The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are prompting both countries to reassess their financial strategies, with China’s reduction in U.S. debt holdings seen as a precautionary measure [5][7] - The declining attractiveness of the U.S. dollar and the credibility of U.S. government backing for Treasury bonds are becoming increasingly questioned, as evidenced by the actions of both China and Canada in selling off U.S. debt [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department reported significant selling of U.S. Treasury bonds in April 2025, with a total reduction of $36.1 billion in holdings by major foreign investors, raising concerns about international confidence in U.S. debt and its implications for U.S.-Canada relations [1][6]. Group 1: International Capital Flows - In April 2025, major foreign investors reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $36.1 billion, with official foreign investors decreasing their holdings by $8.7 billion [1]. - Canada significantly cut its holdings by over 13%, selling $57.8 billion worth of U.S. debt, which contributed to a total decline of $26.1 billion among the top ten foreign holders [6]. - Japan increased its holdings by $3.7 billion to $1,134.5 billion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt [4]. Group 2: U.S. Debt and Economic Implications - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a fiscal deficit exceeding $1.3 trillion for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year [8]. - The U.S. Treasury will face approximately $7 trillion in maturing federal debt in 2025, marking the largest debt maturity in U.S. history [9]. - Moody's downgraded the U.S. long-term credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising debt and interest payment ratios significantly above those of similarly rated countries [7][10]. Group 3: Legislative and Fiscal Policy Changes - The U.S. Congress passed a large tax and spending bill that extends tax cuts from the Trump administration and increases defense spending, which is expected to exacerbate the fiscal deficit [10][11]. - Moody's projects that the U.S. federal debt burden could reach 134% of GDP by 2035, with deficits potentially rising to 9% of GDP [10].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, reassured that U.S. government bonds will "never default," despite warnings from industry leaders about a potential collapse in the bond market [1][3] - The U.S. is facing significant pressure regarding its debt situation, with concerns raised about the government's increasing debt and its impact on the bond market [5][8] - China, as the second-largest holder of U.S. debt, has significantly reduced its holdings, selling $18.9 billion in March alone, and its total holdings have decreased by 42% from peak levels [3][5] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing unprecedented sell-offs, with U.S. bond yields rising nearly 20 basis points, marking the largest volatility in 20 years [3][5] - There are growing concerns among U.S. lawmakers and business leaders that the increasing government debt could lead to the bond market exerting control over national policies [5][8] - The U.S. government is under pressure to negotiate with China to encourage more purchases of U.S. debt, but China's recent actions indicate a clear stance against this [8]

Group 1 - Japan is unlikely to sell its large holdings of US Treasury bonds despite the recent drop in bond prices, as there are no better alternative investments available [1][2] - Japan, like other countries, prefers to hold US dollars for foreign exchange reserves rather than euros, due to the depth of the US capital markets and the strong technological competitiveness of the US [2] - The dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, with a current share of 58% in global foreign exchange reserves, although this is the lowest level in decades [5] Group 2 - There are doubts about the euro's potential to replace the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, primarily due to political fragmentation in Europe and the lack of depth in European capital markets [4][5] - The influence of the Chinese yuan is seen as more promising in challenging the dollar's dominance in Asia, with an increasing amount of trade being settled in yuan [5] - The euro currently accounts for 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, significantly lower than the dollar's share [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in Trump's attitude towards China following the consensus on tax reductions, indicating a growing urgency to engage with China despite previous aggressive stances [1][3]. - Trump's previous confidence in China's willingness to negotiate has turned into a desperate need for dialogue, as he seeks to visit Beijing and has expressed a desire for direct talks [1][3]. - The article suggests that the pressure on Trump has increased due to the adverse effects of the trade war on the U.S. economy, leading him to seek a meeting with China to secure favorable conditions before losing leverage [3][5]. Group 2 - The article notes that China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, selling $18.9 billion in March, which has resulted in China losing its position as the second-largest holder of U.S. debt, now held by the United Kingdom [4][5]. - The shift in debt ownership from China to the UK raises concerns about the stability of the U.S. economy, as both Japan and the UK are struggling to manage their roles in holding U.S. debt [5][6]. - Trump's contradictory approach towards China is evident, as he seeks assistance while simultaneously attempting to contain China's growth, reflecting a divided strategy in U.S.-China relations [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The Trump tax - cut bill barely passed in the House of Representatives and still faces challenges in the Senate. Fed理事沃勒 said the tax - cut bill triggered the selling of US Treasuries, and if tariffs stabilize, there may be an interest rate cut in the second half of the year. US May Markit manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations and expanded, with the price index rising again. The Eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly contracted, and the service sector had its worst performance in 16 months. After the US - Japan finance ministers' meeting, the US said "no exchange - rate discussion, the current exchange rate reflects fundamentals", and Japan said "no discussion on US Treasuries". In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the equity index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Recently, the market has entered a data vacuum zone, lacking new positive or negative factors, and oscillation has become the consensus. From the futures trend, the long - and short - side forces are evenly matched. During the oscillation period, when it touches the upper or lower limit of the range, there will be short - term confrontations between the long and short sides. Without incremental information or fundamental data guidance in the short term, the oscillation pattern is expected to continue, and the market may continue to focus on spread mining [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Equity Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.05%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.1%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.7%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.81% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.0%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.0% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible oscillating operation with adjustment risks [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 300 Main Continuous | 3879.60 | - 0.05 | 52835 | 143884 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | SSE 50 Main Continuous | 2715.40 | 0.10 | 28918 | 51342 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 500 Main Continuous | 5614.80 | - 0.70 | 53832 | 116140 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 1000 Main Continuous | 5950.00 | - 0.81 | 148619 | 195203 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 108.81 | 0.01 | 65126 | 156071 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 105.98 | - 0.00 | 47004 | 116615 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 30 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 119.52 | - 0.04 | 67554 | 82843 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 102.37 | - 0.00 | 34274 | 100554 | [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Trump tax - cut bill has led to the selling of US Treasury bonds and a decline in the US dollar, boosting precious metals, but the market is also concerned about Powell's semi - annual policy hearing, and precious metals may enter a high - level oscillation in the medium term [2]. - The steel market shows a weak balance in the short term, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range. With the decline in steel mill profits, the willingness to increase production is not strong, and the prices of coking coal and coke are weak, while iron ore prices are firm [2]. - The coking coal market is oscillating downward, with a loose supply situation, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. - The iron ore market has weakening demand and increasing supply pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the operation logic switching between strong reality and weak expectation [4]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 2260 line [5]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 1260 line [6]. - The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2490 line [8]. - The silver market is recommended to adopt a medium - term wide - range oscillation and slightly bearish strategy [8]. - The bond market is recommended to adopt a medium - term oscillation and slightly bullish strategy [8]. - The short - term pressure on the crude oil market is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [9]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - The PTA market is expected to have a slight increase in domestic supply in the medium - to - long term, with the pressure of over - capacity emerging, and a cautious and bearish attitude is recommended at high levels [10]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Gold - The Trump tax - cut bill plans to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next decade, raising the US debt ceiling by $4 trillion. It has led to the selling of US Treasury bonds and a decline in the US dollar, boosting precious metals. The market is also concerned about Powell's semi - annual policy hearing, and gold may enter a high - level oscillation in the medium term [2]. Steel (including rebar, coking coal, iron ore) Rebar - As of the week of May 22, rebar production was 231.48 million tons, an increase of 4.95 million tons (2.19%) from the previous week; factory inventory was 187.76 million tons, an increase of 2.77 million tons (1.5%); social inventory was 416.46 million tons, a decrease of 18.42 million tons (4.24%); apparent demand was 247.13 million tons, a decrease of 13.16 million tons (5.06%). The steel market shows a weak balance in the short term, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range [2]. Coking Coal - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.36%, an increase of 0.27% from the previous period; the daily average output was 52.79 million tons, a decrease of 0.03 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 316.48 million tons, an increase of 10.97 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 214.74 million tons, an increase of 11.48 million tons. The coking coal market is oscillating downward, with a loose supply situation, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2675.03 million tons, a decrease of 39.64 million tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 117.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.72 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 22.84, a decrease of 0.20. The iron ore market has weakening demand and increasing supply pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the operation logic switching between strong reality and weak expectation [4]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the methanol operating rate was 87.04%, a weekly decrease of 1.62%; the total downstream capacity utilization rate was 72.04%, a weekly increase of 1.45%; the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 49.04 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.65 million tons; the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 33.6 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.02 million tons; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.52 million tons, a weekly decrease of 3.84 million tons. The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 2260 line [5]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash nationwide was 1422.5 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices recently; the weekly output of soda ash was 66.38 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous period; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous period; the operating rate of float glass was 75.24%, a weekly decrease of 0.22%; the average price of float glass nationwide was 1240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 6776.9 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous period. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 1260 line [6]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 850 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the chlorine - alkali profit was 358 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 84.1%, an increase of 1.5%; a 720,000 - ton/year chlorine - alkali plant of Shanghai Chlor - Alkali was under maintenance for about one month; the weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 40.09 million tons, a decrease of 3.61%; the weekly operating rate of downstream alumina was 75%, a decrease of 1%; the weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.3%, a decrease of 0.35%. The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2490 line [7][8]. Silver - Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed will not buy bonds in primary auctions. If the impact of tariffs stabilizes, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. The market has renewed expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, and the silver market is recommended to adopt a medium - term wide - range oscillation and slightly bearish strategy [8]. Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation on May 23, with a net investment of 375 billion yuan after deducting the 125 - billion - yuan maturity this month, which is the third consecutive month of incremental roll - over. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term, with the stock - bond seesaw as the main logic [8]. Crude Oil - There is still uncertainty in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and possible geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, the pressure on crude oil is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increases. Short - term short - term participation is recommended [9]. Rubber - Thai rubber raw material prices are falling, while Hainan raw material prices are improving. The global light - vehicle sales in April 2025 maintained an upward trend. The rubber market has strong raw materials but weak finished products. The tire operating rate has increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term trading is recommended [9]. PTA - The CFR price of PX is 834 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N is 259 US dollars/ton; the price of PTA in East China is 4870 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost of PTA is 4705 yuan/ton; the social inventory of PTA is 373.16 million tons, a decrease of 14.97 million tons from the previous statistical period; the PTA capacity utilization rate is adjusted to 77.22%; the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of polyester is around 90.4%. The PTA market is expected to have a slight increase in domestic supply in the medium - to - long term, with the pressure of over - capacity emerging, and a cautious and bearish attitude is recommended at high levels [10].

Report Summary Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, while silver is expected to follow and rise [1] - The trend strength of gold is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook, while the trend strength of silver is -1, indicating a relatively negative outlook [5] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various gold and silver futures and spot contracts are presented, including沪金2506, 黄金T+D, Comex黄金2506, 伦敦金现货, 沪银2506, 白银T+D, Comex白银2506, and 伦敦银现货 [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of gold and silver futures contracts, as well as their changes compared to the previous day, are provided [2] - **ETF and Inventory**: The holdings of SPDR黄金ETF and SLV白银ETF, as well as the inventory of沪金, Comex黄金, 沪银, and Comex白银, and their changes compared to the previous day, are presented [2] - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads, such as the spread between 黄金T+D and AU2506, the spread between 沪金2506 and 2512 contracts, and the cross - period arbitrage costs, are provided [2] - **Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates of the US dollar index, the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY and CNH), the euro against the US dollar, the US dollar against the Japanese yen, and the British pound against the US dollar, as well as their changes compared to the previous day, are presented [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The Trump tax cut bill narrowly passed in the House of Representatives, and the Fed's influential governor Waller believes that the tax cut bill will trigger the selling of US Treasury bonds. If tariffs stabilize, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of the year [2][4] - The US has suspended Harvard University's qualification to recruit international students [6] - The US May Markit manufacturing and services PMI both exceeded expectations and expanded, while the eurozone May PMI unexpectedly contracted, and the service industry had its worst performance in 16 months [6] - After the meeting between the US and Japanese finance ministers, the US stated that they did not discuss exchange rates, and the current exchange rate reflects the fundamentals, while Japan stated that they did not discuss US Treasury bonds [6] - OPEC+ is discussing a significant production increase in July, and Saudi Arabia is punishing "quota traitors" [6] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of gold is 1, and the trend strength of silver is -1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones remaining flat, the S&P 500 down by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.28% [1][3] - The approval of Trump's tax reform plan by the House of Representatives raised concerns about increasing U.S. fiscal deficit, leading to selling pressure in the long-term U.S. Treasury market [1][8] Treasury Yields - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached approximately 5.15%, marking a new high since October 2023, before retreating during the trading session [8][10] - The rise in long-term Treasury yields may exacerbate market concerns regarding the economy, as these rates serve as benchmarks for consumer loans such as mortgages [10] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks mostly rose, with the U.S. Technology Seven Index increasing by 0.6%. Notable individual stock performances included Tesla up nearly 2%, Google up over 1%, and Amazon up nearly 1% [5] - Bank stocks generally rose, with Goldman Sachs up 0.77% and Morgan Stanley up 0.76%, while energy stocks fell across the board, with ExxonMobil down 0.68% and Chevron down 0.21% [7] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.18% and notable drops in stocks like Xpeng Motors down over 7% [7] Commodity Prices - Gold prices fell, with London gold down 0.6% to $3,294.49 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures down 0.56% to $3,295.10 per ounce [12] - International oil prices also continued to decline, with WTI crude futures down 1.23% and ICE Brent crude down 1.29% [13]