智通财经7月10日电，美联储穆萨莱姆表示，如果美联储无法对准备金支付利息，可能会造成市场混 乱。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to implement rapid interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The statement indicates a push for monetary policy easing to stimulate economic growth [1] - The call for lower interest rates suggests concerns about the current economic conditions and potential slowdowns [1]

特朗普称，美联储应迅速降息。特朗普称赞英伟达股价自特朗普关税以来上涨 ...

智通财经7月10日电，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储应迅速降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to implement rapid interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy [1] Group 1 - The request for quick rate cuts indicates a concern over economic growth and potential recession risks [1] - Trump's statement reflects a broader strategy to influence monetary policy in favor of economic expansion [1] - The emphasis on swift action suggests urgency in addressing economic challenges facing the country [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is crucial for asset prices, with increasing expectations for a shift to a loosening cycle due to limited inflation impact from recent tariff policies [1][2] Group 2 - Tariffs imposed by the U.S. government have had a limited effect on inflation, with the import price index showing no significant increase post-tariff, indicating that the cost burden is primarily on U.S. importers rather than consumers [2] - Core CPI and PPI remain stable, with core PPI growth at only 0.1% in May, contrasting sharply with the 10% tariffs, suggesting that inflationary pressures are easing [2] Group 3 - The current economic environment in the U.S. provides ample space for monetary policy easing, with actual interest rates significantly higher than core inflation rates, leading to expectations of rate cuts starting in September [3] - The market anticipates a gradual shift to a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with the federal funds rate potentially dropping to 3.75% by year-end [3] Group 4 - Trade policy impacts are expected to be limited, with recent agreements showing a compromise on tariffs, indicating a stable external environment for the bond market over the next few quarters [4] Group 5 - The ten-year Treasury ETF (511260) is highlighted as a key investment tool in the upcoming loosening cycle, effectively reflecting market trends and providing flexibility for investors [5] - The ETF is positioned to benefit from anticipated declines in ten-year Treasury yields as the market adjusts to expected rate cuts, supported by both policy and market dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The US labor market shows unexpected strength with initial jobless claims falling to 227,000, below market expectations, which may impact Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] Economic Data - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 decreased to 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000, and the previous value was revised from 233,000 to 232,000 [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the last meeting, indicating a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts [3] Market Analysis - The strong jobless claims data reduces the likelihood of a rate cut in July, shifting market focus to the September meeting [3] - Uncertainty from tariff policies, particularly comments from Trump, is causing some companies to slow down hiring, which could exert pressure on the labor market in the coming months [3] Gold Market Analysis - Gold is currently experiencing a third pullback from its historical high of 3500, with key levels to watch being 3365 as resistance and 3248 as support [5] - The analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with a focus on short positions around 3335, targeting a drop to 3300 [7] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with potential rebounds but an overall downward trend anticipated [5][7]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月10日 [从定价模式和资本流动看人民币 Table_NewTitle] ——人民币汇率专题深度研究 [table_main] 投资要点 宏 观 深 度 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 ➢ 人民币汇率的定价逻辑与市场回顾。汇率是一国货币相对于另一国货币的价格，不仅主导 国际贸易上货物服务的重要兑换价，亦可视作外汇市场上的资产价格。人民币汇率经历三 十年的市场化改革历程，从2005年"7.21"汇改放弃固定汇率制度，到2015年央行启动 "8.11"汇改，完善以市场化为基础的中间价制度。人民币汇率历史定价逻辑也从国际收 支顺差主导的"顺差结汇"逐渐转向中美利差倒挂主导的"利差持汇"。 ➢ 经常账户保持韧性为人民币提供底部支撑。2025年一季度经常账户数据先行释出，顺差达 1656亿美元，录得历 ...

Group 1 - Trump's recent comments target Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, claiming current interest rates are "at least 3 percentage points too high" and calling for immediate rate cuts [1] - Trump estimates that every 1 percentage point increase in interest rates adds $360 billion to the refinancing costs for the U.S., based on a rough estimate of the national debt [1] - Market response to Trump's comments has been muted, with traders expecting a 93.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, indicating skepticism about the effectiveness of Trump's pressure [3] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the market is often more intelligent than politicians, as market participants will ultimately vote with their money rather than being swayed by political rhetoric [5] - It highlights the importance of how news is interpreted in the financial market, noting that institutional investors and retail investors often have different interpretations of the same news due to their differing motivations [7] - The article provides examples of how market dynamics can lead to different outcomes based on institutional participation, such as the contrasting reactions of stock prices to gold price surges in different years [8] Group 3 - The article suggests that the true driving force behind market movements is capital flow rather than surface-level news, urging investors to look beyond appearances to understand the underlying dynamics [9] - It stresses the importance of relying on quantitative data for investment decisions, as the Federal Reserve's decisions are based on employment and inflation data rather than political pressure [10] - The article advises ordinary investors to focus on real market data rather than getting caught up in political debates, emphasizing the need for a data-driven approach to investing [12] Group 4 - Key recommendations for ordinary investors include not being influenced by political disputes, focusing on actual economic data, utilizing quantitative tools for market analysis, and developing personal investment logic rather than following trends [14]

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 当天早些时候，特朗普表示，他宁愿选"任何人"也不会再让鲍威尔担任美联储主席。自上任以 来，他一直批评鲍威尔，施压其至少降息1个百分点，而美联储目前将利率维持在4.25%-4.50%区 间。 美 联 储 " 影 子 主 席 " 提 议 引 发 信 誉 危 机 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 美国总统特朗普周三称，当前利率"至少高了3个百分点"，并再次指责美联储主席鲍威尔"正让美 国每年在再融资成本上多付出3600亿美元"。他还称"不存在通胀"，且企业"正涌入美国"，并敦 促美联储"降息！" 对美联储而言，执掌全球最大经济体本就充满挑战，而 下一任主席还将面临额外负担：特朗普加 大对货币政策的干预力度，已引发美联储信誉问题。 无论最终谁接任，都可能被贴上"只为执行特朗普降息指令"的标签，打破美联储传统的"非政治 化"表象。据报道，为在短期内扩大影响力，特朗普正考虑在现任主席鲍威尔明年卸任前任命"影 子主席"，以施压美联储降息。 这一提议引发一系列棘手问题：除了这种安排在操作上的尴尬，更可能对美联储的机构权威性 ...