【导读】五大私募展望 2026 年债市投资机会 中国基金报记者 刘明 站在 2025 年年末，如何看待 2025 年债市变化？ 2026 年债券市场有哪些投资机会？为回 答上述问题，中国基金报采访了多家知名私募投研掌门人。受访私募机构人士包括银叶投资 首席投资官许巳阳，万柏基金创始合伙人、总经理范强华，安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉 涛，恒立基金创始人、总经理潘焕焕，以及宁水资本研究总监陈昭斌。 受访私募主要观点如下： 银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳： 2026 年，预计难以看到利率单边下行趋势，长端利率继续宽 幅震荡，长债有阶段性上行风险。利率债市场更看好中短端利率品种表现， 12 月中央经济工 作会议定调货币政策将继续保持适度宽松，有助于短端资产的平稳表现。 万柏基金创始合伙人、总经理范强华： 2026 年，重点看好以下三类品种：一是中短端高等 级信用债，是组合的 " 压舱石 " 。二是转债市场的结构性机遇，部分具备强基本面支撑的偏 债型转债展现出极佳的 " 债底 + 期权 " 属性。三是中资点心债。 安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉涛： 2026 年将延续 " 股牛 + 债不熊 " 格局：债市依然 " 上有顶、下有 ...

恒立基金创始人、总经理潘焕焕：可转债仍然是2026年固收市场最看好的品种，一是继续看好权益市场；二是大量转债在2025年到期或赎回，供给将长期 处于低位，2026年将呈现供不应求的格局；三是"资产荒"加剧使得转债的吸引力进一步提升。 宁水资本研究总监陈昭斌：我们对明年债市整体是比较乐观的，2026年债市有望迎来震荡修复的行情。目前30年的房贷利率和30年期国债收益率的利差较 低，对于银行、保险等配置型机构已具有一定的吸引力，债市的长期配置动能正在不断累积。 复盘2025年：央行政策、关税影响、"反内卷"等因素超出预期 站在2025年年末，如何看待2025年债市变化？2026年债券市场有哪些投资机会？为回答上述问题，中国基金报采访了多家知名私募投研掌门人。受访私募 机构人士包括银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳，万柏基金创始合伙人、总经理范强华，安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉涛，恒立基金创始人、总经理潘焕焕， 以及宁水资本研究总监陈昭斌。 受访私募主要观点如下： 银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳：2026年，预计难以看到利率单边下行趋势，长端利率继续宽幅震荡，长债有阶段性上行风险。利率债市场更看好中短端利率 品种表现，12月中央经 ...

【导读】五大私募展望2026年债市投资机会 中国基金报记者刘明 站在2025年年末，如何看待2025年债市变化？2026年债券市场有哪些投资机会？为回答上述问题，中国 基金报采访了多家知名私募投研掌门人。受访私募机构人士包括银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳，万柏基金 创始合伙人、总经理范强华，安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉涛，恒立基金创始人、总经理潘焕焕，以 及宁水资本研究总监陈昭斌。 受访私募主要观点如下： 银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳：2026年，预计难以看到利率单边下行趋势，长端利率继续宽幅震荡，长债 有阶段性上行风险。利率债市场更看好中短端利率品种表现，12月中央经济工作会议定调货币政策将继 续保持适度宽松，有助于短端资产的平稳表现。 万柏基金创始合伙人、总经理范强华：2026年，重点看好以下三类品种：一是中短端高等级信用债，是 组合的"压舱石"。二是转债市场的结构性机遇，部分具备强基本面支撑的偏债型转债展现出极佳的"债 底+期权"属性。三是中资点心债。 安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉涛：2026年将延续"股牛+债不熊"格局：债市依然"上有顶、下有底"， 整体将保持低位震荡，仍具有一定的配置价值。看好三类机会。一是纯 ...

Core Insights - The bond market is relatively efficient, primarily driven by large institutional investors, with individual investors participating through funds and wealth management products. Recent significant events have led to notable fluctuations in bond yields [1] Market Trends - Positive signals from the US-China competition and a 3% year-on-year growth in industrial added value from January to September have caused bond yields to rise, with the ten-year government bond yield reaching approximately 1.85% [1] - Following the peak at 1.85%, the market saw a decline in yields as institutions recognized the value of ten-year bonds, pushing yields down to around 1.82% [1] - A significant drop in yields occurred after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced the resumption of government bond operations, leading to a further decrease to about 1.80% [1] Investment Strategy - The bond market is expected to be more optimistic in the fourth quarter due to the PBOC's actions and historical performance trends, with a focus on the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) [5][8] - The current yield range of 1.75%-1.85% is considered a suitable investment zone, and the ten-year bond yield at around 1.8% presents a good opportunity for allocation [3][8] - Investors are advised to adopt a buy-and-hold strategy, as short-term trading may incur transaction costs due to low volatility in the bond market [4] Historical Context - The ten-year bond yield has fluctuated significantly throughout the year, with a notable peak above 2% at the end of last year, followed by a downward trend [3] - The yield curve is currently steeper compared to previous periods, with the ten-year and five-year bond yield spread reaching a historically attractive level [5][7] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show strong performance in the bond market, driven by expectations of policy easing and proactive positioning by institutions [8] - The CPI indicator is highlighted as a key metric to monitor for potential upward pressure on yields, although current inflation expectations remain subdued [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December, which may lead to increased liquidity and capital inflows into domestic markets [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve's Actions - The easing of external liquidity due to the Fed's rate cuts is expected to attract foreign capital into domestic stock and bond markets, as the return on U.S. assets declines [1][2]. - The previous high interest rates in the U.S. created a siphoning effect on global capital, but with the Fed's rate cuts, some funds are likely to seek alternative investments [1][2]. Group 2: Domestic Market Implications - The Fed's rate cuts may alleviate depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan, allowing for more flexibility in domestic monetary policy [2]. - The current economic conditions, including weakening inflation and social financing, suggest a favorable environment for the bond market, despite some short-term bearish factors [2]. Group 3: Bond Market Opportunities - Following recent market corrections, there is an increasing interest from banks in bond allocations, indicating a potential rise in bond market attractiveness [2]. - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has shown strong long-term performance, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and money market funds, making it a viable investment option for interested investors [3].

Group 1 - The bond ETF market has seen significant innovation and increased institutional demand in 2023, with net inflows reaching 300.31 billion yuan and total scale surpassing 536.34 billion yuan as of August 14 [1] - The introduction of new bond ETF products, such as benchmark market-making corporate bond ETFs and sci-tech bond ETFs, has diversified and refined the product line, with 8 out of 18 newly established bond ETFs surpassing 100 billion yuan in scale within six months [1] - The liquidity advantages of sci-tech bond ETFs align with national strategic directions and provide investors with convenient access to high-growth corporate bonds, gaining recognition from institutional investors [2] Group 2 - Multiple public fund institutions believe that the bond market adjustment may be nearing its end, with expectations for a rebound as domestic monetary policy is likely to become more accommodative in the fourth quarter [3] - The market logic is shifting from "stock-bond linkage" to being driven by individual fundamentals, suggesting that investors should maintain a long-term holding strategy and avoid chasing short-term fluctuations [3] - There is potential for increased market penetration of bond ETFs, driven by the demand from long-term funds like pensions and annuities for low-risk, high-liquidity instruments [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rapid growth of bond index funds, with total assets surpassing 1.5 trillion yuan and bond ETFs exceeding 500 billion yuan by the end of Q2 2023 [1][2][3] - As of July 21, 2023, the total net asset value of 332 disclosed bond index funds reached 1.52 trillion yuan, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 292 billion yuan, which is nearly a 24% rise [3] - The bond ETF segment has been the main driver of growth, with a total size of 384.38 billion yuan by the end of Q2, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 166.25 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 60% of the overall increase in bond index funds [3][4] Group 2 - The bond ETF market continues to expand rapidly, reaching 501.47 billion yuan by July 20, 2023, with an increase of nearly 120 billion yuan in less than a month [4] - Among the 39 bond ETFs in the market, 20 have reached a size of over 10 billion yuan, with the largest being Haitong Zhongzheng Short-term Bond ETF at 54.35 billion yuan [4][5] - In the ordinary bond index fund category, there are 28 funds exceeding 10 billion yuan, with notable funds like Southern 7-10 Year National Development Bonds and Guangfa 7-10 Year National Development Bank Bonds at 36.38 billion yuan and 33.99 billion yuan respectively [5] Group 3 - Fund managers maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the bond market, expecting it to remain strong due to supportive fundamentals, policies, and liquidity [6][7] - The market is anticipated to experience a bullish trend, with the potential for a steepening yield curve, particularly in the mid to short-term segments [7] - Fund managers suggest that any adjustments caused by market disturbances could present good opportunities for increasing positions in the bond market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The bond index fund market in China has experienced rapid growth, with the total scale surpassing 1.5 trillion yuan and bond ETFs exceeding 500 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2023 [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Growth of Bond Index Funds - As of July 21, 2023, the total net asset value of 332 disclosed bond index funds reached 1.52 trillion yuan, marking an increase of 292 billion yuan from the previous quarter, a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of nearly 24% [3]. - Compared to the same period last year, the total scale has increased by nearly 70% from 902.23 billion yuan [3]. Performance of Bond ETFs - Bond ETFs have been the main driver of growth, with a total scale of 384.38 billion yuan by the end of Q2, an increase of 166.25 billion yuan from the previous quarter, accounting for nearly 60% of the overall increase in bond index funds [3]. - As of July 20, 2023, the bond ETF market has continued to expand rapidly, surpassing 500 billion yuan, reaching 501.47 billion yuan, with an increase of nearly 120 billion yuan in less than a month [4]. Key Players in the Market - Major fund companies such as Bosera, Southern, GF, and Fuguo have bond index fund scales exceeding 100 billion yuan, while Hai Futong and E Fund are close to this threshold [3][5]. - The market has seen 20 bond ETFs reach the 10 billion yuan level, with Hai Futong's short-term bond ETF being the largest at 54.35 billion yuan [4]. Market Outlook - Fund managers maintain a cautiously optimistic view on the bond market, expecting it to remain strong amid supportive fundamentals, policies, and capital flows [6][7]. - The overall sentiment suggests that the bond market will experience fluctuations but remain on a positive trajectory, with potential opportunities for accumulation during market adjustments [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is crucial for asset prices, with increasing expectations for a shift to a loosening cycle due to limited inflation impact from recent tariff policies [1][2] Group 2 - Tariffs imposed by the U.S. government have had a limited effect on inflation, with the import price index showing no significant increase post-tariff, indicating that the cost burden is primarily on U.S. importers rather than consumers [2] - Core CPI and PPI remain stable, with core PPI growth at only 0.1% in May, contrasting sharply with the 10% tariffs, suggesting that inflationary pressures are easing [2] Group 3 - The current economic environment in the U.S. provides ample space for monetary policy easing, with actual interest rates significantly higher than core inflation rates, leading to expectations of rate cuts starting in September [3] - The market anticipates a gradual shift to a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with the federal funds rate potentially dropping to 3.75% by year-end [3] Group 4 - Trade policy impacts are expected to be limited, with recent agreements showing a compromise on tariffs, indicating a stable external environment for the bond market over the next few quarters [4] Group 5 - The ten-year Treasury ETF (511260) is highlighted as a key investment tool in the upcoming loosening cycle, effectively reflecting market trends and providing flexibility for investors [5] - The ETF is positioned to benefit from anticipated declines in ten-year Treasury yields as the market adjusts to expected rate cuts, supported by both policy and market dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic capital market in China is demonstrating unique resilience amid a complex global economic environment, with a significant increase in the investment value of Chinese assets and a focus on technology innovation and new consumption trends as dual main lines for the equity market [1][2][6]. Economic Resilience - Fund companies agree that China's economic resilience and vitality are increasingly evident, despite uncertainties in the global political and economic landscape [2]. - The transition from old to new economic drivers is seen as a critical turning point, presenting vast potential for growth [2]. - The Chinese economy has reportedly moved past its most challenging adjustment period, with a sustained trend towards high-quality development [2]. Equity Market Focus - Fund companies identify structural investment opportunities in the equity market, particularly in technology and new consumption sectors [3]. - The A-share market is viewed as having upward potential at current valuation levels, with internal growth and policy benefits expected to drive independent market performance [3]. - The AI sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations for strong performance driven by advancements in AI applications and infrastructure [3][4]. Investment Strategies - The semiconductor sector is recommended for investment, with suggestions to maintain a 30% to 50% position in semiconductor ETFs to capture long-term gains [4]. - New consumption trends are identified, including spiritual consumption and cost-effective consumption, which are expected to shape mid-to-long-term investment logic [4]. - Fund managers suggest exploring investment opportunities in experiential consumption, AI-driven consumption, and service-oriented consumption [4]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a positive outlook, with a return to a bullish trend following previous short-term fluctuations [5]. - Structural opportunities within the bond market are anticipated, with recommendations to embrace yield-bearing assets and engage in wave trading while monitoring policy changes and economic data [5]. - Specific bond types, such as bank subordinated bonds and convertible bonds, are noted for their potential to provide excess returns in the current environment [5].