每经记者|任飞 每经编辑|叶峰 1月29日，中国基金业协会公布了最新私募基金管理人名单，结果显示，前朱雀基金固收投资总监、后转任广发资管固收部 总经理的柳雯青创办了恒熵私募基金管理（上海）有限公司，在1月27日登记备案，该证券私募机构由她本人全额出资。 1月29日，银华基金发布公告，旗下基金经理李晓彬在1月27日卸任了其管理的所有产品；公司旗下另一位基金经理刘辉也于 近期清仓式卸任了所有在管产品，刘辉在1月9日卸任了其管理的多只权益类基金。 柳雯青独资创办私募公司 1月29日，中国基金业协会公布了最新的私募基金管理人名单，前朱雀基金固收投资总监、后转任广发资管固收部总经理的 柳雯青创办了恒熵私募基金管理（上海）有限公司，在1月27日登记备案，该证券私募机构由她本人全额出资。 | 酿苦 | 法定代表人 总经理 执行审事 信息填报负责人 投资负 盖人 | | 姓名 柳青 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 是否有基金从业资格 | 是 | | 贸格获取方式 通过考试 | | | | 时间 | 任职单位 | 任职部门 | 調 | | | 2025.11 - | 公路中（奥士）開 ...

Group 1: Business Strategies - The bank is focusing on expanding its middle-income sources by enhancing wealth management services and diversifying asset allocation for clients [1] - The bank is actively pursuing new business growth points in government bond sales, non-financial corporate bond underwriting, and custody services [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The bank plans to strengthen its investment research capabilities and improve market trend analysis to enhance returns amidst fluctuations in the bond market [2] - The bank will closely monitor changes in the internal and external operating environment to adapt its strategies accordingly [2] Group 3: Risk Management - The bank is committed to maintaining a comprehensive risk management system that covers all aspects and processes, aiming to keep asset quality stable throughout the year [2] - Continuous optimization of credit policies and approval strategies is being implemented to prevent and mitigate risks effectively [2] Group 4: Communication and Compliance - During the investor relations activity, there was thorough communication between the company representatives and investors, adhering to regulations without disclosing any undisclosed significant information [2]

◎记者 张欣然 步入2026年，债券市场情绪明显变化。尽管资金面整体仍维持宽松，但机构对全年债市走势的判断偏谨 慎，"区间运行"等预期逐步成为共识。 展望全年债市，多位业内人士对上海证券报记者表示，在单边行情难以持续的背景下，投资者配置心态 更趋谨慎，久期选择明显降低，对债市的"押注"也将转向精细化的策略博弈。 在预期趋同、配置趋谨慎的背景下，机构对2026年债市运行特征的判断也逐步清晰。多位业内人士认 为，全年债券市场更可能呈现区间震荡、结构分化的运行格局。 开年预期高度趋同 从开年交易情况看，债市变化首先体现在配置行为的转向上。尽管流动性环境依然宽松，但投资者在配 置和久期选择上明显转向防守。 债市不再是资金配置的唯一选择。自2024年9月底以来，伴随权益市场阶段性回暖、黄金等资产表现走 强，市场赚钱效应逐步扩散至多类资产，债券资产在配置中的稀缺性明显下降。 一位来自华东地区公募基金的固收投资经理对上海证券报记者表示，前几年不少资金没什么选择，只能 集中配置债券，而目前权益市场和商品资产均有良好表现，债券不再是唯一选项，机构自然会重新评估 配置性价比。 围绕2026年债市走势，市场判断正趋于统一。国金证券 ...

【导读】五大私募展望 2026 年债市投资机会 中国基金报记者 刘明 站在 2025 年年末，如何看待 2025 年债市变化？ 2026 年债券市场有哪些投资机会？为回 答上述问题，中国基金报采访了多家知名私募投研掌门人。受访私募机构人士包括银叶投资 首席投资官许巳阳，万柏基金创始合伙人、总经理范强华，安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉 涛，恒立基金创始人、总经理潘焕焕，以及宁水资本研究总监陈昭斌。 受访私募主要观点如下： 银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳： 2026 年，预计难以看到利率单边下行趋势，长端利率继续宽 幅震荡，长债有阶段性上行风险。利率债市场更看好中短端利率品种表现， 12 月中央经济工 作会议定调货币政策将继续保持适度宽松，有助于短端资产的平稳表现。 万柏基金创始合伙人、总经理范强华： 2026 年，重点看好以下三类品种：一是中短端高等 级信用债，是组合的 " 压舱石 " 。二是转债市场的结构性机遇，部分具备强基本面支撑的偏 债型转债展现出极佳的 " 债底 + 期权 " 属性。三是中资点心债。 安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉涛： 2026 年将延续 " 股牛 + 债不熊 " 格局：债市依然 " 上有顶、下有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2026 is expected to experience low volatility and maintain a low interest rate environment, with a focus on short to medium-term bonds and convertible bonds as key investment opportunities [2][12][16]. Group 1: 2026 Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to face challenges with long-term interest rates experiencing wide fluctuations and potential upward pressure due to supply and inflation expectations [2][12]. - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, supporting short-term assets and maintaining a stable performance in the bond market [2][12][16]. - The overall sentiment towards the bond market is optimistic, with expectations of a recovery in market conditions and structural opportunities arising from a low interest rate environment [3][15]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities identified for 2026 include high-grade short to medium-term credit bonds, structural opportunities in the convertible bond market, and Chinese dim sum bonds [2][16][20]. - Convertible bonds are highlighted as particularly attractive due to expected supply shortages and their dual nature of providing both bond-like security and equity-like upside [17][20]. - The focus on "fixed income plus" products is emphasized as a cost-effective strategy, leveraging ETFs to enhance returns while managing volatility [20][21]. Group 3: 2025 Market Review - The bond market in 2025 deviated from initial expectations, with higher volatility and a more pronounced differentiation in credit bonds than anticipated [7][8]. - Factors such as central bank policies, trade tensions, and unexpected regulatory changes contributed to the market's performance, leading to a reassessment of risk and return dynamics [4][8][12]. - The overall trajectory of the bond market in 2025 was characterized by a "slow bull" pattern, with fluctuations driven by external economic conditions and policy responses [7][12].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2026 is expected to maintain a "bullish stock + non-bearish bond" pattern, with overall low volatility and certain investment value, despite lacking trend opportunities [2][6][7]. Group 1: 2026 Bond Market Outlook - Long-term interest rates are anticipated to experience wide fluctuations, with potential upward risks due to supply pressures and inflation expectations [8][12]. - The central economic work conference in December indicated that monetary policy will remain moderately loose, benefiting short-term assets [12]. - The bond market is expected to show structural opportunities, particularly in medium to short-term high-grade credit bonds, convertible bonds, and Chinese dim sum bonds [11][12][13]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three key investment opportunities for 2026 include: 1. Medium to short-term high-grade credit bonds, which serve as a stabilizing component in portfolios [12]. 2. Structural opportunities in the convertible bond market, which exhibit strong fundamental support [13]. 3. Chinese dim sum bonds, benefiting from potential capital gains and currency appreciation [12][15]. Group 3: 2025 Market Review - The bond market in 2025 experienced a bearish trend, correcting from previous overpricing due to premature interest rate cut expectations [4][5]. - Factors such as the central bank's restrained liquidity release and unexpected policy changes contributed to the market's volatility [5][6]. - The overall performance of the bond market in 2025 aligned with initial expectations, although the degree of volatility and credit bond differentiation was greater than anticipated [4][5]. Group 4: Strategies for Enhancing Returns - In a low-interest environment, strategies to enhance fixed-income returns include active participation in wave trading and refining trading strategies [16][17]. - Utilizing various derivative tools to amplify capital gains while managing overall portfolio risk is recommended [17][19]. - Emphasis on multi-asset allocation and strategy optimization is crucial, particularly in convertible bonds and REITs [16][19].

Core Insights - The bond market is relatively efficient, primarily driven by large institutional investors, with individual investors participating through funds and wealth management products. Recent significant events have led to notable fluctuations in bond yields [1] Market Trends - Positive signals from the US-China competition and a 3% year-on-year growth in industrial added value from January to September have caused bond yields to rise, with the ten-year government bond yield reaching approximately 1.85% [1] - Following the peak at 1.85%, the market saw a decline in yields as institutions recognized the value of ten-year bonds, pushing yields down to around 1.82% [1] - A significant drop in yields occurred after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced the resumption of government bond operations, leading to a further decrease to about 1.80% [1] Investment Strategy - The bond market is expected to be more optimistic in the fourth quarter due to the PBOC's actions and historical performance trends, with a focus on the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) [5][8] - The current yield range of 1.75%-1.85% is considered a suitable investment zone, and the ten-year bond yield at around 1.8% presents a good opportunity for allocation [3][8] - Investors are advised to adopt a buy-and-hold strategy, as short-term trading may incur transaction costs due to low volatility in the bond market [4] Historical Context - The ten-year bond yield has fluctuated significantly throughout the year, with a notable peak above 2% at the end of last year, followed by a downward trend [3] - The yield curve is currently steeper compared to previous periods, with the ten-year and five-year bond yield spread reaching a historically attractive level [5][7] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show strong performance in the bond market, driven by expectations of policy easing and proactive positioning by institutions [8] - The CPI indicator is highlighted as a key metric to monitor for potential upward pressure on yields, although current inflation expectations remain subdued [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December, which may lead to increased liquidity and capital inflows into domestic markets [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve's Actions - The easing of external liquidity due to the Fed's rate cuts is expected to attract foreign capital into domestic stock and bond markets, as the return on U.S. assets declines [1][2]. - The previous high interest rates in the U.S. created a siphoning effect on global capital, but with the Fed's rate cuts, some funds are likely to seek alternative investments [1][2]. Group 2: Domestic Market Implications - The Fed's rate cuts may alleviate depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan, allowing for more flexibility in domestic monetary policy [2]. - The current economic conditions, including weakening inflation and social financing, suggest a favorable environment for the bond market, despite some short-term bearish factors [2]. Group 3: Bond Market Opportunities - Following recent market corrections, there is an increasing interest from banks in bond allocations, indicating a potential rise in bond market attractiveness [2]. - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has shown strong long-term performance, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and money market funds, making it a viable investment option for interested investors [3].

Group 1 - The bond ETF market has seen significant innovation and increased institutional demand in 2023, with net inflows reaching 300.31 billion yuan and total scale surpassing 536.34 billion yuan as of August 14 [1] - The introduction of new bond ETF products, such as benchmark market-making corporate bond ETFs and sci-tech bond ETFs, has diversified and refined the product line, with 8 out of 18 newly established bond ETFs surpassing 100 billion yuan in scale within six months [1] - The liquidity advantages of sci-tech bond ETFs align with national strategic directions and provide investors with convenient access to high-growth corporate bonds, gaining recognition from institutional investors [2] Group 2 - Multiple public fund institutions believe that the bond market adjustment may be nearing its end, with expectations for a rebound as domestic monetary policy is likely to become more accommodative in the fourth quarter [3] - The market logic is shifting from "stock-bond linkage" to being driven by individual fundamentals, suggesting that investors should maintain a long-term holding strategy and avoid chasing short-term fluctuations [3] - There is potential for increased market penetration of bond ETFs, driven by the demand from long-term funds like pensions and annuities for low-risk, high-liquidity instruments [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rapid growth of bond index funds, with total assets surpassing 1.5 trillion yuan and bond ETFs exceeding 500 billion yuan by the end of Q2 2023 [1][2][3] - As of July 21, 2023, the total net asset value of 332 disclosed bond index funds reached 1.52 trillion yuan, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 292 billion yuan, which is nearly a 24% rise [3] - The bond ETF segment has been the main driver of growth, with a total size of 384.38 billion yuan by the end of Q2, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 166.25 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 60% of the overall increase in bond index funds [3][4] Group 2 - The bond ETF market continues to expand rapidly, reaching 501.47 billion yuan by July 20, 2023, with an increase of nearly 120 billion yuan in less than a month [4] - Among the 39 bond ETFs in the market, 20 have reached a size of over 10 billion yuan, with the largest being Haitong Zhongzheng Short-term Bond ETF at 54.35 billion yuan [4][5] - In the ordinary bond index fund category, there are 28 funds exceeding 10 billion yuan, with notable funds like Southern 7-10 Year National Development Bonds and Guangfa 7-10 Year National Development Bank Bonds at 36.38 billion yuan and 33.99 billion yuan respectively [5] Group 3 - Fund managers maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the bond market, expecting it to remain strong due to supportive fundamentals, policies, and liquidity [6][7] - The market is anticipated to experience a bullish trend, with the potential for a steepening yield curve, particularly in the mid to short-term segments [7] - Fund managers suggest that any adjustments caused by market disturbances could present good opportunities for increasing positions in the bond market [7]