Core Viewpoint - The continuous narrowing of net interest margins (NIM) in China's commercial banks is significantly impacting their profitability, driven by factors such as declining market interest rates, intensified competition, and insufficient credit demand [1][2]. Summary by Sections Net Interest Margin Trends - China's commercial banks' NIM has decreased to 1.43% in Q1 2025, down 9 basis points from 1.52% at the end of Q4 2024. Different types of banks show varying NIM performance, with private banks and rural commercial banks facing the most pressure [2][3]. - The overall NIM for listed banks fell by 13 basis points year-on-year to 1.43%, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6 basis points [2]. Causes of NIM Decline - The decline in NIM is attributed to lower yields on loans and bond investments on the asset side, and a trend towards longer-term deposits on the liability side, which increases costs [3][4]. - Forecasts suggest that NIM will continue to face downward pressure in 2025, but the negative impact on income and net profit growth is expected to gradually diminish [3]. Challenges for Small and Medium Banks - Small and medium banks are facing the greatest challenges in the current low NIM and low-interest-rate environment, with issues related to profitability and competition from larger banks [4][5]. - Strategies for these banks include focusing on localized and differentiated development, digital transformation, and optimizing asset-liability management [4][5]. Strategies for Improvement - Small banks are advised to enhance their asset-liability management, increase the proportion of medium- to long-term assets, and implement differentiated pricing models for loans [4][5]. - Initiatives such as dynamic monitoring of deposit interest rates and targeted marketing strategies are being employed to improve customer acquisition and retention [5][6]. - The shift towards digitalization and innovative product offerings is seen as a crucial step for banks to find new growth opportunities amidst the challenges posed by low NIM [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the approval of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to acquire Chongqing Bishan Rural Bank and establish a new branch, indicating a significant move in the reform of rural financial institutions [1] - The "village-to-branch" model is gaining traction as a method for restructuring rural banks, with ICBC's acquisition being a notable example of this trend [2] - ICBC has initiated the establishment of two rural banks, with Chongqing Bishan being the first fully-owned rural bank in the western region, showcasing its commitment to rural financial reform [1][2] Group 2 - The article discusses the broader context of rural bank reforms in China, emphasizing the need for consolidation and restructuring to enhance operational efficiency and risk management [2] - China’s rural banks are experiencing a trend of reduction in numbers, with many being absorbed by their parent banks and transformed into branches, a process referred to as "village-to-branch" [2] - The restructuring is expected to leverage the strengths of large state-owned banks, enhancing financial support for rural areas and small enterprises [2] Group 3 - China Bank is also mentioned for its strategy of holding and managing rural banks through its subsidiary, Zhongyin Fudeng Rural Bank, which has established a significant network across 22 provinces [3] - Zhongyin Fudeng has been actively increasing its capital to strengthen its rural banks, including recent acquisitions of shares to enhance its ownership stakes [3][5] - The capital injection is aimed at improving the financial health and operational capabilities of rural banks, thereby increasing their ability to serve local economies [5] Group 4 - The article notes potential risks in the restructuring process, including competition from larger banks and the challenge of maintaining customer trust during transitions [4] - It emphasizes the importance of capital supplementation for rural banks to improve their resilience against economic fluctuations and enhance their lending capabilities [5] - The article also mentions that other major banks like Agricultural Bank and Postal Savings Bank have minimal involvement in rural banks, indicating a concentrated market among a few players [5]

Core Insights - The A-share banking sector has experienced a prolonged period without new listings, with the last IPO being Lanzhou Bank in January 2022, until Dongguan Bank and Guangdong Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank recently had their IPO status restored to "accepted" [1][3][4] - Dongguan Bank has faced numerous challenges since proposing its IPO in 2008, including multiple application terminations and audit suspensions, while Guangdong Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank has similarly faced a lengthy process since initiating its IPO in 2018 [4][5] - In contrast, Guangdong Shunde Rural Commercial Bank has withdrawn its IPO application, reducing the number of banks waiting to list in A-shares to five, amidst a challenging environment characterized by narrowing net interest margins and asset quality pressures [1][8] Company Summaries - Dongguan Bank reported a revenue of 10.197 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.69% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.738 billion yuan, down 8.1% [5] - Guangdong Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank achieved a revenue of 6.429 billion yuan, a decline of 6.3%, but its net profit increased by 2.99% to 2.453 billion yuan [5] - Guangdong Shunde Rural Commercial Bank, which has withdrawn its IPO application, was established in 1952 and underwent a transformation into a rural commercial bank in 2009 [6][7] Market Context - The A-share market has not seen new bank listings since Lanzhou Bank, with many banks considering the Hong Kong market as an alternative due to the high barriers and uncertainties in A-shares [9][10] - Yibin Bank successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January 2025, but its stock performance was lackluster, reflecting the challenges faced by small and medium-sized banks in the Hong Kong market [9][10] - The overall environment for bank IPOs is complicated by regulatory demands for sustainable profitability, leading some banks to withdraw their applications due to poor financial performance [8][10]

港交所披露易信息显示，近期弘康人寿保险股份有限公司（下称"弘康人寿"）连续两个交易日增持郑州银行H股，其中首 次增持后持股比例达到了5.55%，根据香港市场规则，触发举牌。 券商中国记者注意到，过去半年多的时间，以平安系为代表的险资在港股密集举牌中资银行H股，频次高达13次，是自2015 年、2020年之后的第三次举牌潮。 且举牌后，上述险资继续高频增持中资银行H股，尤其对国有大行和头部股份行的单家持股比例上升至15%上下。券商中国记 者粗略统计，上述增持行动合计耗资超1500亿港元。 值得关注的是，郑州银行是近期险资首次关注的区域银行。 弘康人寿增持郑州银行 港交所披露易信息显示，6月27日，弘康人寿以每股1.2068港元增持郑州银行H股1600万股，总金额为1930.88万港元。增持 后，持股比例占据其H股的5.55%，触发举牌。 截至6月27日收盘，郑州银行A股当日收盘价为每股人民币2.09元，跌幅1.42%；H股当日收盘价为每股1.187港元，涨幅 0.83%。 举牌后，弘康人寿于下一个交易日继续"进货"。6月30日，弘康人寿继续增持郑州银行H股2300万股，每股作价1.1804港元， 总金额为271 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The banking sector is transitioning from a "pro-cyclical" model to a "weak cyclical" model, indicating a shift in operational dynamics [2][4] - The report emphasizes the stability of bank dividend yields, which are expected to remain attractive even as risk-free interest rates decline [2][4] - The influx of non-freely circulating funds, such as from state-owned enterprises and insurance capital, is expected to provide a stable source of investment in bank stocks [2][4] Summary by Sections From the Perspective of Risk-Free Interest Rates - Bank dividend yields are characterized by strong certainty and sustainability, with interest margins expected to decline more slowly than risk-free rates [5][12] - The correlation between banks and fiscal policies has strengthened, providing a safety net for core assets [12] - If risk-free interest rates decline, the attractiveness of stable bank dividends will increase, especially in a context of economic weak recovery and asset scarcity [8][18] From the Perspective of Funding Allocation to Bank Stocks - Major funding sources for bank stocks include non-freely circulating funds from fiscal authorities, state-owned enterprises, and insurance capital [5][12] - Non-freely circulating market capitalization accounts for approximately 70% of the banking sector, providing a stabilizing effect [5][12] - Insurance capital is projected to significantly increase its allocation to bank stocks, with an estimated annual inflow exceeding 350 billion [5][12] Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend the banking sector, particularly focusing on banks with regional advantages and strong dividend yields [4][12] - Specific recommendations include regional banks in areas like Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Chengdu, as well as major banks such as Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4][12]

村镇银行改革化险进程明显加速。 2025年，我国村镇银行改革化险进程明显加速，数量瘦身现象越发显著。 国家金融监督管理总局数据显示，仅上半年，就有接近90家村镇银行因被吸收合并或被收购而退出市 场，减少速度明显快于往年。6月，工商银行获批收购重庆璧山工银村镇银行，并将其改制为中央大街 支行，这标志着国有大行首次参与"村改支"项目。 业内人士指出，"村改支""村改分"等合并措施不仅显著增强了机构的风险防控能力，还通过将村镇银行 的不良资产纳入资本实力更强的母行风控体系，根治了治理缺陷，实现了运营成本的优化与资源协同效 应的同步显现。加速整合与改革化险的推进，将为村镇银行带来风险化解与服务质量提升的双重积极效 应，为农村金融服务的可持续发展注入新活力。 接近90家村镇银行"消失" 据工商银行2024年年报，重庆璧山工银村镇银行成立于2009年12月，由工商银行出资1亿元并全资控 股。"工商银行主导的'村改支'案例，是大型银行积极落实中央金融工作会议精神、加快处置高风险中 小金融机构的重要行动。"北京财富管理行业协会特约研究员杨海平指出，大型银行参与农村中小银行 改革化险工作，向外界传递出改革化险进程加速的积极信号 ...

继药都银行、海安银行、马鞍山行、广州银行之后，又一家银行选择撤回IPO申请。近日，广东顺德农 村商业银行股份有限公司（下称"顺德农商行"）及其保荐人中金公司向深交所提交IPO申请，7月4日， 顺德农商行正式终止审核。 随着顺德农商行的退出，原本全面注册制后10家申报IPO的银行队伍已经少了一半，仅剩5家银行尚在 排队中。 在A股市场难以突破的背景下，赴港上市是另一路径选择，不过，对于中小银行来说，A股上市难，主 要难在上市前，而H股的难恰恰在于上市之后。 "近年来，银行IPO进展缓慢，一方面与资本市场政策调整有关，在建设科技强国的背景下，上市资源 更多用于支持科技型企业融资；另一方面与近两年A股市场震荡有关，银行股体量较大，需考虑上市对 资本市场稳定性的影响。"招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼对记者表示。 储备库从10家降至5家 对于中小银行来说，A股上市难，主要难在上市前，而H股的难恰恰在于上市之后。 2023年初，全面注册制启动，10家拟上市银行平移至交易所，分别为申报深市主板的广州银行、东莞银 行、马鞍山行、南海农商行、顺德农商行；申报沪市主板的海安银行、药都银行、湖州银行、湖北银 行、 ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 价值重估的下半场 ——银行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 银行股目前仍处于价值重估的趋势中。我们认为行情实质性反映的是对于基本面稳定性的预期 偏差。近年来银行的盈利韧性持续超预期，主要源于监管政策托底，城投/地产/资本等重大风险 底线确立。本质在于我国银行作为准财政货币工具，具备显著的系统重要性，股息分红构成重 要财政收入。基本面稳定是红利价值重估、机构持续加仓的核心基础，2025 年净息差正在筑 底，资产质量稳定，区域银行业绩增速领先。当前继续重点推荐优质城商行和高股息红利银行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 马祥云 盛悦菲 盈利何以维持稳定？净息差正在筑底+政策托底资产质量 我们预计 2025 年起金融让利将 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 如何展望银行中报业绩？ ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 26 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周长江银行指数累计上涨 3.8%，相较沪深 300 指数超额收益 2.2%，相较创业板指数超额收 益 2.3%。7 月以来银行指数重新加速上涨创新高，反映 6 月末的短暂调整主要是机构调仓等交 易因素，银行股基本面及核心投资逻辑稳固。个股层面，本周板块行情明显向低 PB 估值的股 份行轮动，浙商银行、民生银行、浦发银行等领涨。其中民生银行 H 股受益于股东立业集团增 持。国有大行 H 股和招商银行 H 股本周调整，招商银行预计受到 7 月 3 日 H 股分红除净因素 影响。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如何展望银行中报业绩？ 2] ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 26 周 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 破局 1xPB 与 4%股息率？ ——银行股配置重构系列五 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 市场近期关注银行股估值上限，我们认为投资逻辑的演绎比目标估值更重要，1xPB 和 4%股息 率不构成估值约束。以国有大行为代表的类债型银行股，股价进一步上涨需要股息率与国债收 益率利差继续压降，前提条件是进一步验证基本面盈利稳定性，考虑目前监管维护城投/地产/资 本等重大风险底线、净息差降幅明显收窄，确认盈利稳定后股息率存在进一步降低空间。以头 部城商行为代表的高 ROE、稳定增速银行，股息率不是核心定价因子，与 A 股其他几类行业 对比，目前 15%左右 ROE 的头部城商行 PB 估值提升空间依然非常显著。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Title 破局 1xPB 与2] 4%股息率？ ——银行股配置重构系列五 [Table_Summary2] 逻辑演 ...