注：埃里安是彭博专栏作者、剑桥大学皇后学院院长。 知名经济学家埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）：美联储主席鲍威尔应当（主动）辞职，从而捍卫美联储的 独立性。 ...

美联储独立性"告急"！鲍威尔在解雇压力下迎难而上。速来围观鲍威尔讲话... 同传直播 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The strength of precious metals is mainly due to renewed concerns about the Fed's independence and clear interest rate cut signals from Fed officials. Gold has long - term bullish factors, but short - term market risk - on sentiment suppresses its upward momentum. Silver is expected to continue its strength based on the bullish outlook for gold [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - The monthly rate of the US Conference Board Leading Index in June was - 0.3%, with an expected - 0.2% and a previous value revised from - 0.10% to 0% [2]. - Fed Chair Powell faced criminal charges from Trump's allies in the House. Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna accused Powell of perjury, stating he made false statements during a Senate testimony in June 2025 regarding the Fed building renovation and downplayed the cost increase from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [2][3]. - Fed Governor Waller said waiting six more weeks to cut interest rates might be okay, but there's no reason to delay. He also mentioned that he would accept if the president nominated him as Fed Chair [2][3]. - Goolsbee said the latest CPI data showed that tariffs were pushing up commodity inflation, and he was "slightly worried." He expected a significant interest rate drop in the next year [2][6]. 3.2 Price Logic - On the evening of July 21, the gold price quickly rose to $3,400 per ounce, and silver rose 2%, approaching the $39 per ounce mark. The strength of precious metals is due to concerns about the Fed's independence and interest rate cut expectations [3]. - Regarding the Fed's independence, the criminal charges against Powell by Congresswoman Luna have raised concerns. Perjury can carry a maximum sentence of 5 years in prison [3]. - In terms of interest rate cut expectations, Waller's statement and Goolsbee's prediction of a significant rate drop in the next year have increased the market's interest rate cut expectations [3][6]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Currently, it is the third international public - good crisis since the Pax Britannica. In 2025, tariff, geopolitical, and monetary - system risks are similar to those in the last century. Gold, as a substitute for the existing monetary system, has long - term bullish factors, but short - term market sentiment restricts its upward movement. For silver, domestic anti - involution and infrastructure projects may boost its elasticity. Based on the bullish view of gold, silver is expected to remain strong [6]. - Pay attention to US real - estate data, Fed interest - rate expectations, and changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold price range to watch is [3250, 3450], and for COMEX silver, it is [36, 45] [6].

▲美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 图据视觉中国 近日一则重磅消息震惊美国政坛和金融界：佛罗里达州共和党众议员安娜·保利娜·卢娜正式对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔提出了刑事指控的请求。 这件事不仅让掌管美国货币政策的"大掌柜"陷入舆论漩涡，更是让其面临联邦重罪指控。据央视新闻报道，特朗普今年再度入主白宫以来，频繁施压美联储 降息，多次批评鲍威尔，并威胁解除他的美联储主席职务。鲍威尔则表示，特朗普作为总统没有解除其职务的合法权限，他将工作至任期结束。而此前，卢 娜曾公开呼吁解雇鲍威尔。 不过，特朗普于当地时间7月16日表示，他暂时没打算解雇鲍威尔。 鲍威尔否认翻修超标 市场反应平静 美议员称其"作伪证" 此次指控源于鲍威尔6月25日在美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会的听证会上的作证。当时议员们质疑美联储华盛顿总部大楼的翻修项目成本是否合 理，据称该项目最终支出高达25亿美元。 鲍威尔在回应中声称项目从未涉及如此巨额资金。佛罗里达州共和党众议员卢娜7月19日致信司法部长帕姆·邦迪的信件中指出，鲍威尔的证词出现"重大虚 假陈述"，按照美国联邦法律构成伪证罪，因此她正式将鲍威尔"转介"给司法部。 ▲卢娜 卢娜在信中强调，鲍威 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, suggests a comprehensive review of the Federal Reserve's operations, questioning its effectiveness in fulfilling its responsibilities [1] - Becerra's comments may be aimed at pressuring the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts, similar to the ongoing demands from Trump [1] - The potential changes in the Federal Reserve's operational logic could have a more lasting impact than merely dismissing the current chair [1] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of seven Federal Reserve governors and five regional bank presidents, with the chair and vice-chair elected annually [2] - Changing the structure of the Federal Reserve requires Congressional approval, which may be a lengthy process due to cautious attitudes among many Republicans [2] - Tim Duy from SGH Macro Advisors notes that to significantly alter the Federal Reserve's direction, the White House would need more FOMC seats to gain sufficient voting power [2] Group 3 - If the Trump administration cannot secure more seats on the FOMC, it may attempt to change the Federal Reserve's "genetics" through a major review of its thinking, forecasting models, and communication methods [3] - Kevin Warsh, a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, is critical of traditional Federal Reserve analysis and believes there is room for interest rate cuts [3] - The Trump administration appears to aim for low interest rate policies while managing the maturity of U.S. debt, potentially collaborating with the Federal Reserve to control the yield curve [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields are expected to end a four-day rise, with the 10-year yield increasing nearly 1 basis point to 4.39%, partially reversing a 10 basis point decline since the weak June PPI data was released [1] - The 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields rose by approximately 2 basis points, reaching 4.95% and 4.96% respectively [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at a regulatory meeting focused on large bank capital frameworks, with his remarks likely to address Basel III final rules, stress tests, and capital requirements [4] - Powell faces increasing pressure from former President Trump and Republican lawmakers regarding the Fed's renovation costs, which has drawn significant attention from traders and investors [4] - The potential for Powell's removal has led investors to bet on a steepening yield curve, with Deutsche Bank strategists predicting that if Trump moves to dismiss Powell, the 30-year Treasury yield could rise by over 50 basis points [5] Group 3 - Following reports of Trump's potential dismissal of Powell, a macro trading alert was issued, suggesting a strategy of buying 2-year Treasuries while selling 10-year Treasuries, based on expectations of a more dovish new Fed chair [5] - This trading strategy is seen as a hedge against the risk of Trump attempting to remove Powell, with expectations that a weakened Fed independence could raise long-term inflation expectations and thus long-term bond yields [5]

Group 1 - The "Housing Rental Regulations" will be implemented starting September 15, 2025, aiming to standardize rental activities and enhance tenant protections [1] - The 2025 Fortune China 500 list reveals that the total revenue of the listed companies reached $14.2 trillion in 2024, a decrease of approximately 2.7% compared to the previous year, while net profit increased by about 7% to $756.4 billion [1] - The domestic film market shows a strong performance with domestic films accounting for 91.2% of the total box office in the first half of the year, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity in the industry [2] Group 2 - The World Health Organization plans to release new guidelines for GLP-1 therapy for adult obesity treatment in September 2025, marking a significant policy shift in addressing obesity [3] - UBS forecasts that the Federal Reserve will begin a total rate cut of 100 basis points starting in September, with the dollar expected to stabilize after recent declines [5] - JD.com is set to acquire Hong Kong's Jia Bao, with the actual transaction amount being less than 4 billion HKD, and further details expected to be announced in August [6] Group 3 - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank successfully issued 2-year panda bonds worth 2 billion yuan, with nearly 60% held by foreign investors, achieving a record oversubscription of 3.2 times [6] - Tesla has opened its first Supercharger Diner in Los Angeles, aiming to provide an engaging experience for all visitors, regardless of whether they own a Tesla [8] - Starbucks has introduced "Star Self-Study Rooms" in some locations in Guangdong, aiming to provide a study-friendly environment for consumers [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for structural reform of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing systemic issues beyond short-term interest rate decisions, as highlighted by Judy Shelton and Kevin Warsh [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Challenges - Shelton identifies deeper systemic problems within the Federal Reserve, including its models, structure, and the way meetings are organized [1] - There is a call to integrate the Federal Reserve into broader economic and national security strategies [1] - Shelton questions the democratic legitimacy of the Federal Reserve's independence, arguing that its leadership cannot be dismissed by Congress or the President [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - The Federal Reserve has incurred operational losses since September 2022, with over $900 billion in unrealized capital losses in its investment portfolio [1] - Shelton criticizes the policy of paying interest on reserves held by commercial banks, stating it discourages productive investment [2] - Senator Ted Cruz advocates for the elimination of interest on reserve balances, suggesting it could save $2 trillion in deficits over the next decade [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Impact - The shift of the Federal Reserve from a profit-contributing entity to one that expands deficits raises concerns about its operational framework [2] - Economic expert Jeremy Siegel supports the scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's operations due to its changing role in the economy [2]

Group 1 - HSBC's report indicates that risk assets are expected to rise in the second quarter, driven by earnings season, while tariff issues may also become a favorable factor [1] - The market sentiment and positioning indicators from HSBC have issued sell signals, suggesting that optimistic sentiment has an "expiration date" [1][3] - HSBC is examining potential adverse scenarios to enhance bearish sentiment further [1] Group 2 - HSBC identifies two misconceptions regarding tariffs: investors view tariff deadlines as fixed, and the market may welcome potential delays [2] - The sensitivity of the market to tariff news has decreased, similar to the behavior observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that recent tariff rate reductions could boost confidence in risk assets [2] - Warning signals have emerged, with short-term sentiment and positioning indicators issuing significant sell signals, marking the most notable signal since mid-2023 [3]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 美联储还表示，部分额外成本是由于原材料价格上涨、劳动力成本上升以及施工进度变化导致租赁空间 使用时间延长所致。而鲍威尔指出，2021年提交给国家首都规划委员会的规划文件中的一些升级内容后 来被取消，但美联储无需重新提交文件，因为这些变更并不"重大"，而是为了简化施工、减少进一步延 误和成本增加的可能性。 自特朗普第二任期开始以来，他一直试图让美联储降低利率，但美联储因特朗普的关税政策恐再度引发 通胀而不愿配合。随着美联储拒绝让步，特朗普曾表示想要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，但最高法院暗示解 雇鲍威尔可能违宪，华尔街投资者也反对这一想法。 特朗普政府似乎抓住了美联储大楼翻新一事，试图找到解雇鲍威尔的借口。上周，当被问及是否会解雇 鲍威尔时，特朗普表示，除非涉及欺诈，否则可能性极小。 音频由扣子空间生成 北京时间周二20:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将出席一场跟大型银行资本框架综合审查相关的监管会议，并 且发表开幕词。 他的讲话料将聚焦于巴塞尔协议III最终方案、压力测试、大型银行的资本附加以及杠杆要求等监管相关 的话题。但是，由于近期特朗普以及共和党议员频繁就美联储总部翻新工程超支一事 ...