Group 1 - The article mentions the upcoming announcement of China's one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - It notes that there will be 180 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to release its interest rate decision [1]

英国央行副行长隆巴尔代利：没有关于与印度达成的协议对利率决议（影响）的细节可以披露。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged has led to an increase in the US dollar index, putting pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, both supply and demand are weak, and the sustainability of downstream demand is questionable. The market has been mainly trading on macro - information recently. The implementation of domestic stimulus policies remains to be seen, and copper prices are currently fluctuating slightly and mainly in a range - bound pattern [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - **Macro Aspect**: Since January this year, the Fed has maintained the interest rate decision unchanged for the third consecutive time. Powell stated that there is no need to adjust interest rates hastily. Trump's call for a rate cut does not affect the Fed's work. This news has led to a rebound in the US dollar index and put pressure on copper prices [1]. - **Supply Side**: In May, multiple domestic smelters have maintenance plans, with an estimated impact on electrolytic copper production of 21,000 tons. There are still concentrated maintenance plans from July to September. The estimated domestic refined copper production in May is 1.023 million tons (a 1.2% month - on - month increase). TC/RC fees continue to be negative and the negative value is expanding. The high - running sulfuric acid price has made up for some losses of smelters, but smelter inventories are tightening [1]. - **Demand Side**: After the holiday, demand recovery has been slow. The downstream operating rate has increased. In April, the operating rate of cable enterprises reached 86.3%, a 3.2% month - on - month increase. Orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month. Spot copper prices are strong. In the context of significant inventory reduction, the market has strong expectations for demand. However, in April, China's manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China General Services PMI decreased by 1.2 percentage points from March, reaching the lowest level in seven months in the expansion range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: Intraday, Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, with intraday fluctuations under pressure. It closed at 77,620 yuan per ton. The number of long positions of the top twenty was 118,861 lots, an increase of 2,491 lots; the number of short positions was 111,865 lots, an increase of 1,373 lots [4]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 210 yuan per ton, and in South China it was 195 yuan per ton. On May 7, 2025, the LME official price was $9,462 per ton, and the spot premium was $24 per ton [4]. Supply - Side Information As of April 25, the latest data showed that the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 40.3 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.04 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 19,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. As of April 28, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 95,800 tons, a decrease of 15,400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 194,300 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 156,600 short tons, an increase of 1,991 short tons from the previous period [9].

特朗普在社交媒体Truth Social上发帖称，他将于周四举行记者会，宣布"与一个备受尊敬大国代表达成 的重大贸易协议"。新闻发布会定于华盛顿时间周四上午10点(北京时间周四晚间10点)在椭圆形办公室 举行，但没有详细说明是哪个国家，也没有说明任何潜在协议的范围或细节。特朗普补充说，这将 是"众多协议中的第一个"。 《纽约时报》当地时间周三最新报道称，据三位知情人士透露，特朗普总统预计于周四宣布美国将与英 国达成贸易协议。受此报道影响，英镑延续涨势。 本周四（5月7日）欧市盘中，COMEX黄金遭遇抛售，目前最新价格报3348.20美元/盎司，跌幅0.72%， 今日开盘于3373.10美元/盎司，最高上探3422.00美元/盎司，最低触及3325.40美元/盎司。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 本交易，投资者聚焦特朗普贸易谈判方面的"重大消息"，预计将对市场风险情绪产生影响，从而对美 股、美元和黄金等资产走势起到指引作用。 美国总统特朗普当地时间周三表示，他计划周四举行新闻发布会，事关与一个备受尊敬的大国的重大贸 易协议。该消息传出后，美股期货上涨。 英国央行今日将发布最新的经济预测，投资者 ...

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 凌晨美联储年内第三次维持利率不变，美联储主席鲍威尔继续硬钢特朗普，对黄金而言构成利空！不过，美联储利率决议期间，黄金波动有限，主要因为特 朗普重返白宫后开启的全球"关税大战"成了市场的焦点，同时全球地缘局势云波诡谲，使得美联储影响力大打折扣！ 经过昨天欧美盘折腾后，今天先看区间，重点3360区域支撑，上方重点3400区域压制。向下破位，行情进一步走空，关注回撤3325--3300大关；向上突破， 则看涨3420--3440，甚至冲击历史新高！操作上，3360-3400区间内高抛低吸不追单，打破区间则顺势跟进一波！ 白银，窄幅波动，方向跟着黄金；昨天冲高33.3后大跌，接下来继续关注高空，短线32.2-32区域支撑先看反弹！ 昨天央妈降息降准，以应对当前市场不确定性，似乎影响并不大。当前，市场不缺钱，缺的是信心！消费贷款助力经济也就罢了，连养老都需要贷款了，也 是没法说。 基本面上，地缘局势依然是焦点，印巴冲突牵动全球的神经；俄乌和谈难以达成，冲突随时进一步加剧；美伊谈判各有各的底线，也是死 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the third consecutive time, while continuing to reduce its holdings of Treasury and MBS at the current pace [6]. Economic Conditions - The unemployment rate has stabilized, and the labor market remains resilient, but risks of high unemployment and inflation have increased. Economic uncertainty has further risen, although economic activity continues to expand at a "steady pace" despite fluctuations in net exports [7]. Interest Rate Outlook - The current uncertainty requires the Federal Reserve to remain patient, with all members supporting this wait-and-see approach. There is no immediate need to adjust rates, and the Fed can act swiftly if circumstances change [8]. Inflation Outlook - Short-term inflation expectations have risen, while long-term expectations remain aligned with targets. The persistence of inflation will depend on the scale, timing, and expectations surrounding tariffs [9]. Employment Outlook - Wage growth has continued to slow, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment levels. Consideration of the distance and time to bridge any gaps between dual objectives is necessary [10]. Economic Slowdown - There are no signs of economic slowdown in actual data, and the economy remains robust. However, uncertainty is high, and the risks of economic downturn have increased [11]. Tariff Impact - Tariffs have been larger than expected, but no significant economic impact has been observed from tariff data so far. The inflation effects of policies may be temporary, and ongoing trade negotiations could substantially change the situation [12]. Market Reactions - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates varying probabilities for future interest rate changes, with a notable percentage expecting the Fed to maintain rates or implement a 25 basis point cut [14][15]. Institutional Analysis - Analysts from various institutions suggest that the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode, with good employment data supporting the current stance. There is a consensus that a more significant rate cut may be necessary if the Fed waits too long [16][19][21].

巴西央行：一致决定通过此次利率决议。 ...

美联储FOMC将于十分钟后公布利率决议。 ...

今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年5月8日 周四 ① 02:00 美联储FOMC公布利率决议 ② 02:30 美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会 ③ 10:00 国新办举行新闻发布会 ④ 14:00 德国3月季调后工业产出月率 ⑤ 14:00 德国3月季调后贸易帐 ⑥ 14:00 英国4月Halifax季调后房价指数月率 ⑦ 15:00 商务部召开5月第1次例行新闻发布会 ⑧ 19:02 英国央行公布利率决议及货币政策报告 ⑨ 20:30 美国至5月3日当周初请失业金人数 ⑩ 22:00 美国3月批发销售月率 相关链接 ⑪ 22:30 美国至5月2日当周EIA天然气库存 ⑫ 23:00 美国4月纽约联储1年通胀预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which will clarify the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation and interest rate outlooks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a 99% probability of pausing rate cuts [5][6]. - The next anticipated rate cut is pushed to July, with expectations of two to three cuts by the end of the year [6]. - Market participants are particularly interested in how Fed Chair Powell will address tariff policies and their implications for inflation during the upcoming press conference [6][7]. Group 2: Tariff Negotiations and Market Reactions - Ongoing tariff negotiations are causing fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, with Vice President Pence indicating discussions with the EU to open markets for U.S. goods [2][3]. - The EU is prepared to impose 20% tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if negotiations fail [3]. - Major U.S. tech stocks showed mixed performance, with notable declines in Google and Microsoft, while Amazon saw a rise of over 2% [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Concerns about inflation and the labor market are influencing the Fed's decision-making process, with a focus on employment data as a key reference [6][7]. - The relationship between President Trump and Powell is under scrutiny, as Powell aims to maintain the Fed's independence while addressing market concerns [7].