助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 铝类产业日报 2025/6/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,585.00 | -95.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,901.00 | -19.00↓ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 125.00 175,674.00 | -5.00↓ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -22949.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 69.00 300,995.00 | +8.00↑ +926.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 25,200.00 | -2100.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 113,848.00 | -21579.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME电 ...

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Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision signals a hawkish stance, leading to a drop in gold prices by approximately $20 on June 18, with prices falling below $3350, marking a one-week low [1] - The Fed maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with an increasing number of officials supporting no rate cuts this year, which has negatively impacted gold prices [1] - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East adds uncertainty, which may limit further declines in gold prices, depending on U.S. military actions and Iran's responses [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The potential U.S. military intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict is a significant factor, alongside a substantial drop in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories, which saw a decrease of 11.473 million barrels, indicating rising seasonal demand [3][6] - Oil prices experienced volatility but returned above $75, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions and inventory changes [3][5] - The technical outlook suggests that oil prices are in a range-bound movement, with a critical support level at $73.20; maintaining above this level could indicate a bullish trend [6] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. Dollar Index has broken through the downtrend line since May 13, regaining the 99 level, with a potential upward movement towards 100.50 if it surpasses the 99.40 resistance [7] Group 4: Dow Jones - The Dow Jones has shown signs of weakness after breaking below the uptrend line since April, with a support level at 41800; a breach could lead to further selling pressure [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Norwegian central bank's interest rate decision has led to a continued appreciation of the euro against the Norwegian krone [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the impact of the central bank's monetary policy on currency exchange rates, specifically noting the strengthening of the euro [1]

今晚19:00英国央行公布利率决议 金十数据6月19日讯，北京时间今晚19:00英国央行将公布利率决议，英国5月份通胀数据略有下降，但市场普遍预期该行按兵不动已成定局，投票比 例可能暗藏玄机，警惕本周出现极度鸽派可能，敬请留意相关风险.... 前瞻：英国央行将随美联储按兵不动？留意投票分歧！ 英国央行将公布最新利率决议及会议纪要，市场普遍预计该央行将按兵不动，但一系列"意外"数据，正让8月降息预期直线飙升！ ...

周三（6月18日）欧市盘中，现货黄金区间小幅波动，截至发稿报3386.70美元/盎司，跌幅0.03%，今日金价开盘于3389.65美元/盎司，最高上探 3399.79美元/盎司，最低触及3370.55美元/盎司。 黄金本周走的行情与消息面或者说是市场预期相背驰，地缘冲突的影响下，上周五金价拉涨后周末持续发酵在周一高开后一路走跌。小时级别上 低点是在不断的下移，3400成了短期的阻力压制关口，现在金价虽然在3452走跌，但是明显在3380附近来回走震荡（周二有两次快速下跌，但很 快又拉涨回来）。在消息面没有完全与数据公布在即金价理应还存在一波拉涨的可能，周四美盘休市，初请数据也提前一天公布。 黄金走势分析：4小时当前macd高位死叉放量，灵动指标sto超卖运行，代表4小时的震荡走势。而4小时当前布林带三轨缩口也代表着区间压缩。 目前4小时上方压制位于中轨和均线MA10的粘合点3404-3409一线，而支撑对应的均线MA30和MA10附近3380-3363一线。从目前4小时来讲如果 价格要直接下跌，反弹就不会超过3420-3422.5一线。黄金1小时线当前macd死叉缩量粘合，灵动指标sto向下运行，代表小时线继 ...

6. 高盛集团：英国央行料将维持利率在4.25%不变，薪资上涨压力减轻加上服务类通胀有望回落将促使 其在8月降息，并在下半年连续降息。 7. 三菱日联：英国央行料将维持利率在4.25%不变，外部形势变化可能使其选择继续保留选择权，国内 数据则可能使其在传递信息方面发生微妙变化。 8. 法兴银行：英国央行料将维持利率在4.25%不变，然后将在今年8月和11月进行两次25个基点的降 息，随后在2026年进行三次25个基点的降息。 金十整理：机构前瞻英国央行利率决议——6月不降息已无悬念，但8月必降？ 1. 凯投宏观：英国央行料将维持利率在4.25%不变，随后有可能超预期降息，明年利率有望降至3.5%。 2. 瑞银集团：英国央行料将维持利率在4.25%不变，然后可能会在8月和11月降息，到今年年底将利率 降至3.75%。 3. 晨星公司：英国央行料将维持利率在4.25%不变，因关税紧张局势缓解及薪资增长前景不确定；下一 次降息预计在8月。 4. 美国银行：英国央行料将维持利率在4.25%不变，然后将在今年下半年加快降息步伐，在8月、9月和 11月降息，将利率降至3.5%。 5. Investec：英国央行料将维持利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates, indicating a slowdown in future rate cuts, which has led to fluctuations in gold and silver prices [3][5]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold has been experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, with a recent high of 3450 and a low around 3360, indicating potential trading opportunities for both bullish and bearish positions [5][6]. - The current support level for gold is at 3360, with resistance at 3405 and a target high of 3430 for the week [6][7]. - Despite the recent fluctuations, gold maintains a bullish trend, with each dip followed by a significant rebound [5][6]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver has shown a complex trading pattern, with a recent peak at 37.3 and a drop to 36.4, indicating a strong bullish trend but also high volatility [3][7]. - The recommendation is to avoid chasing high prices in silver and to consider light short positions instead, as the market remains uncertain [7][8]. Domestic Market Insights - In the domestic gold market, there has been a lack of momentum, with the highest price for Shanghai gold reaching 793, but without sustained upward movement [7]. - The strategy for domestic silver is to avoid aggressive buying and instead consider light short positions above 8900, as the market is currently at a high risk of correction [8]. Oil Market Overview - The international oil market saw a drop to a low of 72.8 but rebounded to 75.5, indicating a potential for further gains if it breaks above 77.5 [8][9]. - The domestic fuel market is also showing a slow upward trend, with a current price around 3198, and the outlook remains bullish [9].

6月19日，美联储将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。 委员会致力于在长期内实现最大就业和2%的通胀目标。尽管经济前景的不确定性已有所缓解，但仍处 于高位。委员会高度关注其"双重使命"两方面所面临的风险。 为支持上述目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。在评估是否以及何时 进一步调整这一目标区间时，委员会将密切评估最新数据、前景变化及风险平衡情况。委员会将继续缩 减所持有的国债、机构债及机构抵押贷款支持证券的规模。委员会坚定致力于支持最大就业，并将通胀 率恢复至2%的目标水平。 在评估货币政策的适当立场时，委员会将继续关注新发布信息对经济前景的影响。如出现可能阻碍实现 委员会目标的风险，委员会准备在适当情况下调整货币政策立场。委员会的评估将综合考虑多方面信 息，包括劳动力市场状况、通胀压力与预期、以及金融和国际动态等。 支持本次货币政策决定的委员包括：主席鲍威尔（Jerome H. Powell）、副主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John C. Williams）、迈克尔·巴尔（Michael S. Barr）、米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is reacting to the upcoming Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision, with mixed movements in currency and commodity markets [1] Currency Market Summary - The US Dollar Index decreased by 0.1% - The USD/JPY pair fell over 0.3% - The USD/CHF pair increased by approximately 0.2% - The EUR/USD pair rose by over 0.1% - The GBP/USD pair increased by around 0.1% - The AUD/USD pair saw a rise of about 0.6% [1] Commodity Market Summary - Spot gold declined by approximately 0.1% - Silver prices dropped by over 0.6% [1] Bond Market Summary - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell by 2.2 basis points - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond decreased by 1.9 basis points, currently at 3.9330% [1] Equity Market Summary - The S&P 500 index increased by over 0.3% - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by more than 0.3% - The Nasdaq Composite gained over 0.4% - The Philadelphia Bank Index surged by 1.9% [1]