责任编辑：丁文武 原油价格周二连续第二天下跌，受到成品油走软的拖累，交易员在等待即将公布的一些数据，以了解原 油过剩的具体程度。 WTI原油下跌1.1%，收于接近每桶58美元，受到柴油、汽油和其他成品油大幅下跌带来的压力。美国汽 油与原油之间的价差（即所谓裂解价差）跌至2月份以来最弱水平，柴油的类似指标也下滑。 成品油一直是今年为原油提供支撑的为数不多的因素之一，而近期由需求走弱引发的疲软，在市场普遍 预期供应将大幅过剩的背景下，进一步加重了看空情绪。 Bridgeton Research Group的数据表明，一些趋势跟随型商品交易顾问正在抛售成品油头寸。 交易员正关注本周将由国际能源署和OPEC发布的一系列报告，以及美联储周三的货币政策决定。根据 美国能源信息管理局周二发布的《短期能源展望》，预计美国原油产量今年将创下日均1361万桶的纪 录，这加剧了对短期供应过剩的担忧。 1月交割的WTI原油价格下跌1.1%，结算价每桶58.25美元； 2月布伦特原油下跌0.9%，收于每桶61.94美元。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：丁文武 原油价格周二连续 ...

今日原油期货主力合约2601合约下跌2.26%至446.1元/吨，最低价在444.4元/吨，最高价在453.3 元/吨，持仓量增加443至29784手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月09日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期 累库，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火， 泽连斯基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落， 欧美成品油裂解基差高位持续回落。普京与美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5 个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈 富有成效。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。目前G7和欧盟考虑禁 止俄罗斯石油出口海运服务，取代油价上限。美国与委内瑞拉军事对 ...

Group 1 - Domestic refined oil prices are set to decrease by 55 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel starting from December 8, marking the 24th price adjustment of 2025 and the 11th decrease this year [1] - The recent price adjustment is influenced by a sustained negative change rate in international crude oil prices, attributed to rising U.S. crude oil inventories and a lack of significant trading activity during the Thanksgiving holiday [1] - Analysts indicate that the international oil price trend is weak due to multiple factors, including increasing supply pressure from OPEC+ production plans and rising U.S. crude output, leading to heightened expectations of global oil inventory surplus [1] Group 2 - Concerns about potential supply risks in the oil market persist, with indications that OPEC+ may slow its production increase [2] - The oil market in December is expected to experience a complex interplay of bullish and bearish factors, with global oil supply surplus becoming a market consensus [2] - The demand side will need to monitor changes in winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere, while the potential for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could accelerate oil price declines if progress exceeds expectations [2]

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 | 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明年一季度暂停增 | | --- | | 产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期累库，整体油品库存继续增加。 | | 美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈 | | 判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，普京与美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5 | | 个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈富有成效。美国 | | 和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，特朗普暗示，五角大 | | 楼将很快对委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团发动陆地打击。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。消费旺 | | 季结束、美国11月份 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is expected to stabilize and recover in 2025, despite facing significant supply surplus due to OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical tensions, particularly influenced by the re-election of Donald Trump as the U.S. President [6][7][9]. Supply Side - Global oil supply is under pressure from weak demand and accelerated production increases by OPEC+, leading to a significant surplus. In 2025, the average global oil surplus is projected at 1.795 million barrels per day, with a peak surplus of 4.43 million barrels per day recorded in October [13]. - OPEC+ has significantly increased production, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8422 million barrels per day, while non-OPEC countries have also contributed to the surplus with an increase of 0.8353 million barrels per day [13]. - The supply dynamics are further complicated by geopolitical factors, including sanctions and conflicts, which have led to fluctuations in monthly price differentials [9][10]. Refining Profits - After three years of decline, global refining profits are rebounding in 2025, driven by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and sanctions against Russia, which have disrupted refined product supplies [10][11]. - The sanctions on Russian oil companies have led to a significant drop in Russian refined product exports, creating supply gaps in Europe and Asia, thus pushing up global diesel prices [11]. Demand Side - China's oil demand remains stable but shows signs of weakness, with refinery processing rates fluctuating seasonally. The total crude oil processed by Chinese refineries from January to November 2025 is approximately 680 million tons, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.07% [50][52]. - The demand for gasoline and diesel is declining due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and LNG trucks, while aviation fuel demand is increasing due to the recovery of domestic air travel [54][55]. Future Outlook - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of surplus into 2026, with projections of surplus levels ranging from 2 to 2.8 million barrels per day [15][16]. - Non-OPEC countries, particularly Guyana, Brazil, and Argentina, are anticipated to contribute significantly to future production increases, with Guyana's production expected to reach 1.06 million barrels per day by 2026 [30][32][34].

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡运行 1 发布日期：2025年12月05日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期 累库，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。不过美国活跃石油钻井平台大 幅减少12座，提升了低油价对于美国原油增长受限的预期。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯 基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，普京与 美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的 实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈富有成效。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达 成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，特朗普暗示，五角大楼将很快对 委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团发动陆地打击。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。消 费旺季结束、美国11月份ISM制造业指数环比下降，连续第九个月萎缩，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+持 续增产，中东地区出口增加 ...

Group 1 - The current expected oil price adjustment is a decrease of 60 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of 0.05-0.06 yuan per liter, with a potential for further decline [1] - International oil prices have shown a rebound, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rising by 1.02% to $59.70 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.97% to $63.35 per barrel [4] - Saudi Aramco has lowered its January Arab Light crude oil price for Asian customers to a premium of 60 cents over the regional benchmark, the lowest since January 2021, indicating oversupply and weak demand [4] Group 2 - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the previous week were reported at 191,000, lower than the market expectation of 220,000, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [4] - The upcoming U.S. PCE price index for September may influence oil price trends [4] - The next oil price adjustment is scheduled for December 8 at 24:00 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is experiencing significant oversupply, prompting Saudi Arabia to lower its flagship crude oil prices to a five-year low [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - Saudi Aramco has reduced the price of Arab Light crude oil for Asian customers to a premium of $0.60 above the regional benchmark for January delivery, marking the lowest price since January 2021 [1] - The price cut aligns with survey results from refiners and traders, indicating a consensus on the need for price adjustments due to market conditions [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - OPEC+ confirmed its decision to halt production increases in the first quarter of next year, citing weak seasonal demand across Asia, Europe, and North America during winter months [1] - Year-to-date, crude oil prices have fallen approximately 16%, driven by a surge in supply from the Americas and increased production from OPEC+, which has outpaced sluggish demand growth [1] Group 3: Future Projections - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a record oversupply by 2026, while major Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, predict a decline in futures prices [1] - Saudi Aramco has also adjusted prices for all crude oil grades sold to Asia, with Arab Medium crude turning to a discount for the first time since late 2020 [1]

由于全球石油市场持续出现供应过剩的迹象，沙特阿拉伯将其旗舰原油价格下调至五年来的最低水平。 12月4日，据媒体报道，沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司（沙特阿美）将把2025年1月面向亚洲客户的阿拉伯轻质原油官方售价，官方售价设定为较阿曼/ 迪拜原油均价升水0.60美元/桶。 此次调价后，该旗舰原油等级的溢价水平将降至2021年1月以来的五年最低，且下调幅度与市场此前对炼油商和贸易商的调查预期基本一致。 全球基准布伦特原油收复早前失地，价格与前一日持平。 风险提示及免责条款 供应过剩，油价承压 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责 任自负。 国际能源署（IEA）已预测2026年将出现创纪录的供应过剩。包括高盛集团在内的多家华尔街投行也预计原油期货价格将进一步走低。沙特阿美 的降价行动，正是生产国面对这一黯淡前景所做出的直接反应。 作为全球最重要的产油国联盟，OPEC+的行动是市场关注的另一核心。就在此次调价前夕，OPEC+在刚刚过去的周末确认了其先前的一项决定， 即暂停明年第一季度的增产。 ...

聚酯产业链展望：成本弱供需强，产业链价格保持强势 20251204 摘要 聚酯产业链需求保持良好，但 PTA 因装置检修供应下降，乙二醇港口库 存持续上升，价格走势疲软，跌幅超过原油，与 PS 和 PT 价格在原油下 跌时上涨形成对比。 OPEC 暂停部分原油生产，缓解供应过剩预期，但 EIA 预测全球原油仍 将过剩。美国原油产量创新高，汽油库存回升，价格创近年新低。预计 12 月至明年 1 月原油需求将好转，但供应过剩和地缘政治风险限制价格 反弹空间。 PS 产量同比下降，消费量增加，供不应求，加工费升至年内高位，价格 持续上涨，受益于聚酯产业链需求。若原油价格反弹，PS 价格可能走强， 但需求回落则可能导致价格下跌。 2025 年 PTA 新增产能较大，但 2026 年无新增产能，供应压力较小。 PTA 库存持续回落，加工费虽低但有所回升，需关注装置重启情况和开 工率变动。 Q&A 今年以来原油及其相关产业链的价格表现如何？ 2025 年全年，原油价格整体表现偏弱，累计跌幅接近 20%。然而，在整个产 业链中，PS 和 PT 的价格表现明显偏强。尽管有涨有跌，但整体跌幅并不大。 相比之下，乙二醇（EG）的 ...