交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-20原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 行情驱动：短期利空冲击殆尽，地缘利多不明显，中长期面临供大于求风险 风险点：OPEC+内部团结破坏，放开增产；战争风险升级 1. 对俄制裁临近 2. OPEC+将在明年一季度暂停增产 1.中东局缓和 2.机构对原油过剩预期较为一致 3.美俄重新有会面谈判可能 原油2601： 1.基本面：俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克告诉记者，俄罗斯将在2025年底或2026年初达到其OPEC+石油产量配 额。他指出，俄罗斯已完全完成此前在OPEC+协议下的超产补偿任务，且没有计划自愿减产；乌克兰 总统泽连斯基抵达土耳其以"重启谈判"，报道称美国与俄 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡上行 发布日期：2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国原油累库幅度超预期，成 品油库存去库幅度不及预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量继续刷新历史最高位。美国对 俄罗斯态度转变，美国财政部制裁俄罗斯最大的两家石油企业俄罗斯石油公司、卢克石油公司及其 子公司，俄罗斯原油出口预期受限。印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油 进口的倾向。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗 斯12月份交付的石油。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲汽柴油持 续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，福特号打击群到达加勒比海。 利比亚首都的黎波里附 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The 1Q 2026 production increase suspension has some support for the supply side but the effect is insufficient. Non - OPEC supply continues to rise, leading to obvious supply surplus in Q4 and Q1 2026 with an accelerating inventory build - up. Short - term sanctions on Russia and the situation in Venezuela may push up oil prices, but the supply surplus expectation is clear. The operation should follow a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [6][7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestion Market Review | Oil Type | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI (Main Contract) | 59.67 | 59.66 | 60.30 | 59.21 | - 0.48 | 18.14 | | Brent (Main Contract) | 64.03 | 64.03 | 64.72 | 63.67 | - 0.56 | 25.88 | | SC (Main Contract, Yuan/barrel) | 462.8 | 458.8 | 466.0 | 457.8 | - 0.43 | 7.76 | [6] Operation Suggestion - Adopt a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [7] Group 5: Industry News - Goldman Sachs lowers the average prices of WTI and Brent crude oil in the next year to $52/barrel and $56/barrel respectively. - UBS expects the target price of Brent crude oil to be $62 by the end of this year and $67 by the end of next year. - Sudan's energy facilities are attacked, and oil exports are interrupted. - Sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) may have a long - term negative impact on Russia's oil sales volume, reducing Russia's oil revenue and pushing Russian crude oil prices to multi - year lows [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), EIA crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), US crude oil production growth rate (thousand barrels per day), Dtd Brent price ($/barrel), WTI spot price ($/barrel), Oman spot price ($/barrel), US gasoline consumption (thousand barrels per day), and US diesel consumption (thousand barrels per day) [10][11][18][22]

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 油价中枢存在底部支撑，石油ETF（561360）涨超1.5%。 华泰证券表示，全球新能源替代稳步推进，叠加2025Q4起OPEC+实际供应增量或将集中释放，以 及南美等低成本增量供给投放，全球原油供应过剩压力或将凸显，维持2025-2026年布伦特原油均价预 测为68美元/桶、62美元/桶，预测2025Q4-2026Q2布伦特均价为63美元/桶、61美元/桶、60美元/桶。中 长期而言，产油国"利重于量"诉求未改 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The asphalt market is facing a situation where supply is decreasing, demand is weakening, and prices are showing a weak and volatile trend. The supply side is affected by refinery conversions to produce other products, and the demand side is restricted by factors such as funds, weather, and overall infrastructure investment. Additionally, the excess supply of crude oil and the release of low - price resources from refineries are also contributing to the weakening of asphalt prices [1][4]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the estimated domestic asphalt production is 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 27.4 million tons (11.0%) year - on - year. Refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical have switched to producing residual oil [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of November 14, most of the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries were stable. The operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 4.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1% [1][4]. - Price: OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. The release of low - price resources from refineries in the long - term has weakened the basis of asphalt in Shandong, and the spot price is weak. The futures price of asphalt is weakly volatile [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.36% to 3032 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3029 yuan/ton, the highest was 3072 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2515 to 191,962 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to - 22 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical have switched to producing residual oil, causing the asphalt operating rate to drop by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 4.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%. As of the week of November 14, the operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 14, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.5% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years [5].

发布日期：2025年11月18日 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡下行 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。沙特阿美全面下调12月销往亚洲的原油官方售价，其中旗舰产 品阿拉伯轻质原油价格被下调每桶1.20美元。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国原油累库幅度超 预期，成品油库存去库幅度不及预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量继续刷新历史最高位。 美国对俄罗斯态度转变，美国财政部制裁俄罗斯最大的两家石油企业俄罗斯石油公司、卢克石油公 司及其子公司，俄罗斯原油出口预期受限，只是特朗普最新表示，希望继续在布达佩斯与普京会晤。 印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油进口的可能。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭 击，欧洲汽柴油持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，福特号打 击群到达加勒比海。利比亚首都的黎波里附近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应 中断担忧。但 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on November 18, 2025, covering the performance, market overview, and analysis of various domestic futures contracts [3]. Market Performance Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 18, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates and iron ore rose over 1%, while lithium carbonate and BR rubber rose nearly 1%. In terms of declines, coking coal fell nearly 4%, and the container shipping index (European line), coke, Shanghai silver, and double-coated paper fell over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) main contract fell 0.41%, the SSE 50 (IH) main contract fell 0.23%, the CSI 500 (IC) main contract fell 0.85%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) main contract fell 0.69%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5-year (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year (T) main contract rose 0.03%, and the 30-year (TL) main contract rose 0.06% [6][7]. Capital Flows - As of 15:24 on November 18, in terms of capital inflows to domestic futures main contracts, the CSI 500 2512 had an inflow of 1.722 billion yuan, the CSI 300 2512 had an inflow of 1.254 billion yuan, and the CSI 1000 2512 had an inflow of 890 million yuan. In terms of outflows, the Shanghai gold 2512 had an outflow of 3.546 billion yuan, the lithium carbonate 2601 had an outflow of 2.323 billion yuan, and the Shanghai copper 2512 had an outflow of 1.474 billion yuan [7]. Market Analysis Copper - Copper opened high and closed low, with weak intraday fluctuations. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. However, as some smelters resume production in October and copper prices rise, production is expected to increase. Scrap copper supply increases to make up for the shortage of copper ore resources. On the demand side, rising copper prices limit downstream consumption, and except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is weak. The probability of a December interest rate cut has dropped significantly, causing market confidence to decline and putting pressure on the market. Copper production is expected to increase, while demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season. Before the probability of a rate cut changes, copper prices will be weakly adjusted [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, showing intraday strength. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 87,400 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 85,050 yuan/ton, also up 1,250 yuan/ton. Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo is expected to resume production after December. In October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,790 tons. As of November 14, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.34% higher than the same period last year. The domestic production of energy - storage batteries in October was 54.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The market is optimistic about energy - storage demand. Lithium carbonate inventory has been decreasing for weeks, and the number of warehouse receipts has dropped significantly. The market sentiment has been boosted, but the potential resumption of Jiaxiaowo's production is a negative factor. The strong demand drives the price to oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream demand [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as in October and November, and will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has lowered the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in December. The peak demand season has ended, and US crude oil inventories have increased more than expected. US crude oil production has reached a new high. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and India may reduce its imports of Russian oil. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Libya may disrupt supply. However, the market is worried about demand, and the supply - surplus situation in the crude oil market has become more obvious. The price of crude oil is expected to oscillate weakly [12][13]. Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% last week, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.0%. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, but road construction is restricted by funds and weather. National shipments decreased by 31.02% to 213,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has slightly increased but remains at a low level. Some refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and demand will weaken further. With the oversupply of crude oil, the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.14 percentage points to 53.28%, still at a relatively low level. The operating rate of the plastic - weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%. On November 18, new maintenance devices were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to about 82%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn remained at about 24%. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level. Although the crude oil price rebounded after a decline, the increase is limited due to the oversupply of crude oil. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream orders have limited follow - up. PP is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Plastic - On November 18, some maintenance devices of plastics restarted, and the operating rate rose to about 88%. As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49%. The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The peak season of the agricultural film industry is not as good as expected, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. The plastic price is expected to oscillate weakly [17][18]. PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has slightly declined. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, but the upcoming anti - dumping tax has made traders cautious. Social inventories have slightly decreased but remain high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the PVC industry lacks actual policies. The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened flat and closed low. The spot price in the Shanxi market increased, and the import volume in October decreased year - on - year. Although the Mongolian border will be closed for one day on November 21, the customs clearance volume remains high, and domestic coal production is increasing. Mines and coke enterprises are reducing inventories, while steel mills are increasing inventories. Coke enterprises are facing losses, and their production enthusiasm has decreased. Although steel mill production has increased, the short - term demand for coking coal is pessimistic. Coking coal is expected to be weakly adjusted in the short term, but the downside is limited due to upcoming environmental inspections [20][21]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed high, with a strong oscillation. The futures rebound has boosted market sentiment, and downstream agricultural dealers are increasing low - price fertilizer reserves. The supply is still abundant, and production is expected to increase. Coal prices are rising, but the increase is narrowing. Downstream dealers are more active in purchasing, and although the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has decreased due to environmental inspections, it is expected to improve after the inspections end. The cost is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The international urea market has changed, and the price of urea is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited by high daily production [22].

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI | 主力 | 58.66 | 59.81 | 60.47 | 58.66 | 2.00 | 30.09 | | Brent | 主力 | 63.36 | 64.29 | 64.87 | 63.36 | 2.03 | 46.11 | | SC | 主力（元/桶） | 456.6 | 458.1 | 462.2 | 455.4 | 0.59 | 4.36 | 数据来源：wind,建信期货研究发展部 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3 ...

Market Overview - The average price of asphalt in the domestic market is expected to be 3375 CNY/ton on November 17, reflecting a decrease of 32 CNY/ton, or 0.94% from the previous day [1] - The total operating rate of asphalt in China has decreased by 0.7% to 29.0%, while the operating rate in Shandong has increased by 6.8% to 35.4% [1] - Social inventory among 70 sample enterprises is reported at 825,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 72,000 tons [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC has adjusted its forecast for global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, indicating a consensus on the oversupply of crude oil [2] - Refineries are releasing a significant amount of low-priced forward contracts, leading to substantial pressure on spot prices [3] - The operating rate may slightly decline due to profit margins falling, and adverse weather conditions are expected to limit downstream demand in certain regions [3] Price Outlook - The current market sentiment is cautious, with weak spot prices and a neutral basis for asphalt in Shandong [2] - Given the dual decline in supply and demand, with supply decreasing at a slower rate than demand, the outlook for asphalt prices remains bearish [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a supply surplus situation, and it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly [3] - The supply surplus pattern of crude oil has become more of a consensus, with OPEC adjusting the global oil situation in Q3 2025 from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA predicting that oil demand growth will slow down in Q4 while supply will further increase [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2nd, eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. Production increase will be suspended in Q1 next year, and the next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30th. This will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in Q4 but unexpectedly relieve the supply pressure in Q1 next year [3] - Saudi Aramco comprehensively lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December, with the price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, being cut by $1.20 per barrel [3] - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the decline in refined oil inventories was less than expected, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase. US crude oil production continued to reach a new historical high [3] - The US has changed its attitude towards Russia. The US Treasury Department has sanctioned Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, and their subsidiaries, which is expected to limit Russia's crude oil exports. However, Trump has recently stated that he hopes to continue the meeting with Putin in Budapest. India may reach a new tariff agreement with the US and agree to gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have led to a continuous rise in European gasoline and diesel prices. Attention should be paid to Russia's crude oil export situation [3] - The military stand - off between the US and Venezuela has escalated, with the Ford Strike Group arriving in the Caribbean Sea [3] - The end of the consumption peak season, the month - on - month decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and its continuous contraction for eight months have raised market concerns about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and exports from the Middle East are increasing, so the crude oil market remains in a supply surplus pattern [3] Crude Oil Supply - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its crude oil production in September was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 2,842,700 barrels per day. Its production in October 2025 increased by 33,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2,846,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait [14] - OPEC+ crude oil production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels per day month - on - month compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [14] - US crude oil production in the week of November 7th increased by 211,000 barrels per day to 1,386,200 barrels per day, continuing to reach a new historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 798,000 barrels month - on - month to 410.4 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, and has increased for 16 consecutive weeks [14] Central Bank Interest Rate Cuts - Logan: It is difficult to support an interest rate cut in December, and it is not appropriate to provide more preventive protection to the labor market through interest rate cuts [18] - Milan: The data supports an interest rate cut, and the Fed should be more dovish [18] - Schmid: Further interest rate cuts may have a lasting impact on inflation; concerns about inflation go far beyond the tariff issue [18] - Former Fed Governor Kugler faced an ethics investigation before resigning [18] Performance of European and American Refined Oil - The gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe increased by $1 per barrel and $4.5 per barrel respectively, while the diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $1 per barrel and $4.5 per barrel respectively [23] US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.605 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the same period last year, and the decline compared to the same period last year has narrowed [29] - The weekly demand for gasoline increased by 1.74% to 9.028 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 8.82 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.56% compared to the same period last year [29] - The weekly demand for diesel increased by 8.30% to 4.018 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 3.789 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.33% compared to the same period last year. The rebound of gasoline and diesel demand drove the weekly supply of US crude oil products to increase by 2.03% month - on - month [29] US Crude Oil Inventory - On the early morning of November 14th, US EIA data showed that as of the week ending November 7th, US crude oil inventories increased by 6.413 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.96 million barrels and 4.01% lower than the five - year average [37] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 945,000 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.888 million barrels; refined oil inventories decreased by 637,000 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 2.028 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 346,000 barrels [37] - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the decline in refined oil inventories was less than expected, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase [37] Geopolitical Risks - On the 14th local time, Israeli fighter jets carried out two air strikes on Rafah in southern Gaza [43] - After a two - day suspension, Russia's Novorossiysk port resumed oil loading operations on Sunday [43] - Iranian Foreign Minister: Currently, Iran has no ongoing uranium enrichment activities and no undeclared uranium enrichment facilities [43]