巩固拓展经济回升向好势头 今年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是"十五五"规划谋篇布局之年，做好全年经济工作至关重要。 7月30日召开的中央政治局会议，指出"要保持战略定力，增强必胜信心"，要求"正确把握形势，增强忧 患意识，坚持底线思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头"。 中国经济展现强大活力和韧性 "稳"的态势持续，"进"的步伐坚定—— 上半年GDP增速比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百分点，月度调查失业率和物价基本平稳；货物进出口 总额创同期新高；外汇储备规模连续6个月保持增长。 "新"的动能累积，"畅"的循环改善—— ——贯彻落实中央政治局会议精神实现"十四五"圆满收官述评之一 新华社记者王雨萧、魏玉坤 增长5.3%——上半年，中国经济交出一份殊为不易的答卷。 "主要经济指标表现良好，新质生产力积极发展，改革开放不断深化，重点领域风险有力有效防范化 解，民生兜底保障进一步加强，我国经济展现强大活力和韧性。"中央政治局会议作出重要判断。 上半年，高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%；最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率达52%，"主引擎"动力更 强；货物周转量同比增长5.1%，旅客周转量增长4.9%， ...

Economic Work Guidelines - The overall tone for the second half of the year emphasizes "stability while seeking progress," aiming to effectively promote domestic and international dual circulation [4][10][47] - The meeting acknowledged previous economic achievements while also addressing ongoing risks and challenges, highlighting the need for a proactive approach to leverage development opportunities [9][10] Macro Policy - The macro policy will focus on "sustained efforts and timely enhancements," indicating that fiscal and monetary policies still have room for maneuvering [10][11] - Fiscal policy will accelerate government bond issuance and improve fund utilization efficiency, particularly in infrastructure projects [11][12] - Monetary policy aims to maintain ample liquidity and support sectors like technology innovation, consumption, and small enterprises [18][19] Demand-Side Expansion - The meeting stressed the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential, with a focus on expanding consumption and fostering new growth points in service consumption [20][21] - Policies will be directed towards improving living standards and expanding consumption demand, including potential measures like "child-rearing subsidies" [22] Supply-Side Reform - The meeting highlighted the need for further regulation of "involutionary" competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity in key industries [23][28] - Emphasis will be placed on deepening reforms and promoting a unified national market to optimize market competition [27][30] External Opening - The meeting called for expanding high-level opening-up and stabilizing the fundamentals of foreign trade and investment, with a focus on supporting foreign trade enterprises [34][35] - Policies will include optimizing export tax rebate policies and enhancing cross-border e-commerce development [36][37] Risk Prevention - The meeting outlined strategies for preventing and mitigating risks in key areas, including high-quality urban renewal and managing local government debt risks [39][41] - Emphasis will be placed on maintaining the stability of the capital market and preventing new hidden debts [40][44]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming economic policies and planning for the 15th Five-Year Plan are crucial as the Central Committee prepares for the fourth plenary session in October, focusing on economic and social development strategies [2][3]. Economic Policy Direction - The macroeconomic policies will continue to exert influence, with an emphasis on releasing domestic demand potential, deepening reforms, expanding high-level opening-up, and ensuring risk prevention in key areas [3][4]. - Key points from Xi Jinping's speech include maintaining stability while seeking progress, enhancing consumer confidence, and promoting domestic circulation to achieve economic goals for the year [3][4]. Consumer Stimulus and Policy Innovations - A significant focus is on boosting consumption and breaking the cycle of "involution," which aims to enhance the quality of supply and shift economic growth towards domestic consumption [4][5]. - The introduction of a new child-rearing subsidy policy, effective from January 1, 2025, will provide annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old, marking a significant shift in public policy towards direct cash support for families [5][6]. Anticipated Economic Impact - Economists estimate that the child-rearing subsidy could increase retail sales by approximately 0.2 percentage points nationwide, indicating a potential boost in consumer spending [6]. - The political bureau's meeting highlighted plans for implementing consumption-boosting actions and expanding service consumption, suggesting that improving livelihoods will be a key driver for consumption policies in the 15th Five-Year Plan [6].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 8 月 1 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3573.21 | (1.18) | | 深证成指 | 11009.77 | (1.73) | | 沪深 300 | 4075.59 | (1.82) | | 中小 100 | 6833.61 | (1.84) | | 创业板指 | 2328.31 | (1.66) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机 | 0.39 | 钢铁 | (4.08) | | 通信 | 0.06 | 有色金属 | (3.19) | | 综合 | (0.29) | 房地产 | (3.14) | | 国防军工 | (0.39) | 煤炭 | (2.72) | | 银行 | (0.50) | 非银金融 | (2.57) | 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银晨会聚焦-20250801 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】"十四五"收官，"十五五"开局*张晓娇 朱启兵。中 ...

Economic Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will hold a press conference on August 1 to interpret the current economic situation and work [1] - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized the need to recognize risks and challenges in the economy, while leveraging development opportunities and advantages to maintain economic recovery momentum [1] GDP Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [2] - The GDP growth for the first quarter was 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a growth of 5.2%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the GDP grew by 1.1% in the second quarter [4] Sectoral Contributions - The primary industry added value was 31,172 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [3] - The secondary industry added value was 239,050 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% [3] - The tertiary industry added value was 390,314 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.5% [3] Policy Guidance - The NDRC and other authorities stress the importance of adhering to Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics, maintaining a stable and progressive work approach, and promoting domestic and international dual circulation [4]

Core Insights - The current economic situation in China faces several risks and challenges, necessitating a correct understanding of the situation and an emphasis on proactive measures to leverage development opportunities and strengths [3] - The economic work for the second half of the year will be guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts, focusing on stability and progress, and ensuring policy continuity and flexibility to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations [3][5] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [3] Economic Performance - The GDP growth for the first half of the year was driven by various sectors: - Primary industry added value was 31.17 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% - Secondary industry added value was 239.05 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% - Tertiary industry added value was 390.31 billion yuan, growing by 5.5% [3] - Quarterly performance showed a GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2 [3] Policy and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policies have shown effectiveness, contributing to a stable and improving economic trend, although external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand remain challenges [4] - The focus for the future will be on strengthening domestic circulation and ensuring high-quality development to counter external uncertainties, promoting sustained and healthy economic growth [5]

Key Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing quality and efficiency in the current economic environment, with a focus on stabilizing policies and timely support to navigate uncertainties [5][6][7] - The upcoming 14th National Congress will address the 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the need for strategic breakthroughs in modernization and economic development [6][7] - The report notes a positive outlook for domestic demand, particularly in service consumption, and suggests that investment policies will aim to invigorate private investment [8][9] Group 1: Domestic Economic Observations - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on July 30, 2025, indicated a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, suggesting a lower difficulty in achieving the annual growth target of 5% [5][6] - The meeting emphasized the need for continuous and stable policies while maintaining flexibility to respond to uncertainties, particularly in the context of external economic pressures [7][8] - The report highlights the importance of optimizing competition order and addressing issues of "involution" in the market, which could lead to a long-term recovery in price levels [9][10] Group 2: Financial Sector Developments - The report discusses the planned H-share listing of First Capital Securities, which aims to enhance its capital strength and international competitiveness [11][12] - The insurance sector is experiencing a downward adjustment in preset interest rates, with significant implications for the sales of dividend insurance products [13][14] - The report suggests that the financial market is witnessing a trend towards internationalization, with securities firms expanding their service offerings beyond traditional roles [12][14] Group 3: Market Performance and Data - The non-bank financial index rose by 3.5%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices, indicating a positive market sentiment [11] - The report provides detailed market data, including a daily average trading volume of 22,338 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.4% increase week-on-week [11][28] - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,615 points, a slight increase of 0.17%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.62% [21][22]

会议强调，要有效释放内需潜力。深入实施提振消费专项行动，在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服务消费 新的增长点。在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求。高质量推动"两重"建设，激发民间投资活力，扩大有效 投资。 新华社北京7月30日电 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十 届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国 民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。中共 中央总书记习近平主持会议。 会议指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，我国发展环境面 临深刻复杂变化，战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多，同时我国经济基础稳、优势多、 韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场 优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显，要保持战略定力，增强必胜信心，积极识变应 变求变，集中力量办好自己的事，在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略 任务取得重大突破。 会议强调，"十五五"时期经济社会发展 ...

Economic Overview - The actual GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of 5.0%[3] - Fixed asset investment in infrastructure and manufacturing maintained a high growth rate, contributing significantly to economic performance[3] Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[3] - The need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy was highlighted, including accelerating government bond issuance and promoting a decline in social financing costs[3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The report stresses the importance of implementing special actions to boost consumption and cultivating new growth points in service consumption, particularly through recently introduced childcare subsidies[4] - Focus on effective investment and the implementation of policies to optimize market competition and regulate local investment attraction behaviors[4] Risk Management - Key areas for risk prevention include addressing risks in the real estate sector, managing local government debt, and enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets[4] - The report identifies several external risks, including uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, which could impact economic expectations[3] Strategic Outlook - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will focus on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan, marking a critical transition period for economic strategy[2] - The meeting acknowledged the complex and changing development environment, emphasizing the need to leverage domestic advantages while adapting to external challenges[2]

[Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 证券研究报告 债券研究 短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 3短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 [➢Table_Summary] 7 月政治局会议反映了外部环境急剧恶化已不再是中央的基准预期，上半年 GDP 增速的改善也使得政策的重点从稳增长向促改革、防风险转移，我们认 ...