Core Viewpoint - The Chinese foreign exchange market has demonstrated strong resilience and vitality in the first half of the year, effectively responding to external shocks and performing better than market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors - The foreign exchange market's stability is supported by three favorable factors: high-quality economic development, steady progress in opening up to the outside world, and continuously enhancing market resilience [1]. - The total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached a historical high of $7.6 trillion in the first half of the year, while bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange amounted to $2.3 trillion, the second-highest in history [1]. Group 2: Currency Performance - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35, maintaining basic stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [2]. - The foreign exchange market has shown no significant unilateral expectations for RMB appreciation or depreciation, with overall rational trading behavior observed [2]. Group 3: Foreign Investment - Foreign investment in domestic RMB-denominated bonds has exceeded $600 billion, reaching a historically high level, while net foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds amounted to $10.1 billion in the first half of the year [2]. - The proportion of foreign investors holding domestic bonds and stocks is approximately 3% to 4%, indicating potential for gradual increases in RMB asset allocation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China has shown resilience and vitality in 2025, with stable foreign exchange reserves and a balanced supply-demand situation, indicating a positive outlook for foreign investment in RMB assets [1][2][3] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - The foreign exchange market has exhibited five key characteristics: steady increase in foreign-related income and expenditure, continued net inflow of cross-border funds, basic balance in supply and demand, active trading, and stable foreign exchange reserves [1] - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, with fluctuations between 7.15 and 7.35, maintaining stability while acting as an automatic stabilizer for the macro economy and international balance of payments [1][3] Group 2: Foreign Investment in RMB Assets - Foreign investment in RMB assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion, a historically high level [2] - In the first half of 2025, foreign investors net increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions, with significant increases in May and June [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for foreign investment in RMB assets is positive, with expectations of stable and sustainable growth due to a robust economic foundation, high-quality financial market development, and global asset diversification needs [2] - The foreign exchange market is expected to maintain stability in the second half of the year, supported by high-quality economic development, steady progress in opening up, and enhanced market resilience [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of China's foreign exchange market in the face of complex external environments, highlighting the stable operation and strong fundamentals of the market despite increased risks and challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In the first half of the year, China's foreign exchange market demonstrated strong resilience, with a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to $127.3 billion, continuing the trend from the second half of the previous year, and a 46% increase in net inflow in the second quarter [2]. - The foreign exchange market showed several positive trends, including a steady increase in foreign-related income and expenditure, a balanced supply and demand, and stable foreign exchange reserves [2]. - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, maintaining a stable range of 7.15 to 7.35, which helped stabilize market expectations [2][3]. Group 2: International Balance of Payments - China's current account surplus has been steadily increasing, indicating a balanced international payment situation, with a corresponding financial account deficit that is roughly equivalent to the current account surplus [3]. - From January to May, direct investment inflows into China reached $31.1 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, while securities investment inflows amounted to approximately $33 billion, reversing the previous year's outflow trend [3]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The foreign exchange management authorities have been optimizing policy supply and deepening reforms to enhance the convenience of cross-border trade and investment, while also cracking down on illegal activities [4]. - Over 400 cases of foreign exchange violations were addressed in the first half of the year, demonstrating the effectiveness of regulatory measures [4]. Group 4: Foreign Investment in RMB Assets - Foreign investment in RMB assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion, marking a historically high level [6]. - In the first half of the year, foreign investors net purchased $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds, reversing the net selling trend of the past two years [6]. - The attractiveness of RMB assets is expected to continue growing, supported by a stable macroeconomic environment and positive investment sentiment from international financial institutions [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China has shown resilience amid complex external conditions, with stable expectations for the RMB exchange rate and continued net inflows of cross-border capital [1][5][11]. Summary by Sections Foreign Exchange Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking a historical high for the same period [3]. - The combined settlement and sale of foreign exchange by banks amounted to $2.3 trillion, up 3% year-on-year, the second-highest level for the same period [3]. - The RMB accounted for 53% of cross-border transactions, indicating its growing importance in international trade [3]. Capital Inflows and Market Stability - There was a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border capital from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend from the second half of the previous year, with a 46% increase in the second quarter [3]. - The RMB exchange rate remained stable, appreciating by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35 [5][11]. - The foreign exchange market showed balanced supply and demand, with a total trading volume of $21 trillion, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [3]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion [8]. - In the first half of 2025, foreign investors net purchased $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds, reversing a two-year trend of net selling [8]. - The proportion of foreign investors holding domestic bonds and stocks is approximately 3% to 4%, indicating potential for further growth in foreign investment in RMB assets [8][9]. Economic and Policy Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and enhancing the financial market [9]. - The foreign exchange market has accumulated experience in counter-cyclical adjustments, with improved regulatory effectiveness to mitigate external shocks [11]. - The overall balance of payments is expected to maintain a pattern of current account surpluses and capital account deficits, contributing to market stability [11].

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that in the first half of the year, cross-border income and expenditure by non-bank sectors reached $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The proportion of Renminbi in cross-border receipts and payments reached 53% [1] - There was a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to $127.3 billion, continuing the net inflow trend observed since the second half of last year, with a 46% quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter [1] - The total trading volume in the domestic Renminbi foreign exchange market reached $21 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with spot and derivative trading volumes at $7.4 trillion and $13.6 trillion, respectively [1] - The Renminbi appreciated by 1.9% against the US dollar in the first half of the year, maintaining basic stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [1] Market Resilience - The resilience of China's foreign exchange market has been continuously improving, enhancing its ability to respond to external shocks [2] - The foreign exchange market has accumulated rich experience in counter-cyclical regulation and has a robust reserve of policy tools [2] - The effectiveness of foreign exchange regulation has steadily improved, increasing the capacity to prevent and mitigate external shock risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China has shown resilience and vitality in the first half of 2023, with a steady increase in foreign exchange receipts and a net inflow of cross-border funds, exceeding market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In the first half of 2023, the net inflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors reached $127.3 billion, continuing the trend from the second half of the previous year, with a 46% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2 [1]. - The foreign exchange market maintained a basic balance in supply and demand, with active trading and stable foreign exchange reserves [1][2]. Group 2: Capital and Financial Account Analysis - The increase in the current account surplus corresponds to an expansion of the capital and financial account deficit, which should not be interpreted as increased capital outflow pressure [2]. - The capital and financial account deficit is primarily due to increased outward investment by domestic entities, while foreign investment in China remains net inflow [2]. Group 3: Attractiveness of Renminbi Assets - The Renminbi appreciated by 1.9% against the US dollar in the first half of 2023, with the exchange rate fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35, indicating stability and serving as an automatic stabilizer for the macroeconomy and international payments [3]. - Foreign investment in Renminbi-denominated bonds has increased, with foreign holdings exceeding $600 billion, and net foreign purchases of domestic stocks and funds reached $10.1 billion in the first half of 2023 [3][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Foreign Investment - The foreign investment in Renminbi assets is expected to have stable and sustainable growth, supported by a robust economic environment and improved financial market conditions [3][4]. - Approximately 30% of central banks surveyed indicated plans to increase their allocation to Renminbi assets, reflecting a growing global interest [4]. Group 5: Policy Initiatives for Trade and Investment - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is implementing measures to enhance trade facilitation, cross-border investment, and financing, including reforms to streamline foreign exchange business processes [6][7]. - SAFE plans to expand innovative policies in free trade zones to promote cross-border trade and investment, including optimizing international trade settlement and enhancing the efficiency of foreign debt registration [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has released data indicating a significant increase in foreign investment in China's stock and fund markets, signaling a positive outlook for the Chinese market despite a complex external environment [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - In the first half of 2025, foreign investors net increased their holdings in domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions [3][4]. - The net inflow of foreign capital into China's stock market was particularly strong in May and June, with a total of $18.8 billion, reflecting a growing willingness of global capital to allocate resources to the Chinese market [3][4]. - The total foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeded $600 billion, indicating a sustained interest in Chinese debt instruments [4]. Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - The total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking a historical high for the same period [3][4]. - Non-bank sectors experienced a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border funds, continuing the trend of net inflows observed since the second half of the previous year, with a 46% quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter [3][4]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Developments - The total trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached $21 trillion in the first half of the year, a 10.2% increase year-on-year, with spot and derivative transactions accounting for 35% and 65% respectively [4]. - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.3174 trillion, an increase of $115.1 billion from the end of 2024, indicating a stable upward trend in reserves [4]. Group 4: Policy Measures and Market Stability - SAFE announced plans to promote innovative pilot policies across more free trade zones, aiming to enhance cross-border trade facilitation and investment openness [5][6]. - The agency is preparing to eliminate the registration requirement for foreign direct investment reinvestment in China, which is expected to streamline processes and reduce operational costs for foreign enterprises [6]. - The exchange rate of the RMB against the USD appreciated by 1.9% in the first half of the year, maintaining stability within a range of 7.15 to 7.35, which serves as an automatic stabilizer for the macroeconomy and international balance of payments [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese foreign exchange market has shown resilience and stability in the first half of 2025, with the RMB appreciating against the USD by 1.9% and maintaining a stable range between 7.15 and 7.35, despite a complex external environment [2][3]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with domestic demand contributing 77% to economic growth, reflecting an increase of 17 percentage points [4]. - The foreign exchange market's stability is supported by a robust economic foundation and ongoing efforts to expand domestic demand [4]. Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, there was a bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange deficit of 25.3 billion USD, with a notable shift from deficit to surplus in May and June [2]. - The foreign exchange settlement rate was stable at 60%, while the foreign exchange purchase rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 65% [2]. Market Expectations - The foreign exchange market expectations remain stable, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation of the RMB anticipated [3]. - The RMB exchange rate against the USD was 7.16 at the end of Q2, appreciating slightly from 7.18 at the end of Q1 [3]. Policy and Regulation - The Chinese government is committed to maintaining a balanced international payment structure and promoting high-level opening-up, which is expected to support the stability of the foreign exchange market [4]. - The market has accumulated experience in counter-cyclical regulation, enhancing its ability to respond to external shocks [5]. Risk Management - The awareness of exchange rate risk among enterprises has improved, with the foreign exchange hedging ratio and the proportion of RMB cross-border transactions reaching historical highs of around 30% [5]. - The foreign exchange market has a rich reserve of policy tools and regulatory effectiveness, which enhances its capacity to mitigate external risks [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese foreign exchange market has demonstrated resilience amid complex external conditions, maintaining stability and showing no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation expectations for the Renminbi [1][2][4]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In the first half of the year, the net inflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors reached $127.3 billion, continuing the trend from the second half of last year, with a 46% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2 [2]. - The Renminbi appreciated by 1.9% against the US dollar in the first half, fluctuating within the range of 7.15 to 7.35, indicating its role as a stabilizer for macroeconomic and international balance of payments [2][3]. - The foreign exchange market has shown balanced supply and demand, with active trading and stable foreign exchange reserves [2][4]. Group 2: International Balance of Payments - The current account surplus has been steadily increasing, maintaining a reasonable equilibrium, while the non-reserve financial account has shown a deficit roughly equivalent to the current account surplus [3]. - Direct investment inflows into China reached $31.1 billion from January to May, a 16% year-on-year increase, while securities investment net inflows were approximately $33 billion, reversing the previous year's outflow trend [3][6]. Group 3: Foreign Investment in Renminbi Assets - Foreign investment in Renminbi assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic Renminbi bonds exceeding $600 billion, a historically high level [6]. - In the first half of the year, foreign investors net increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions [6]. - The attractiveness of Renminbi assets is expected to grow, with foreign investors currently holding about 3% to 4% of the market value of domestic bonds and stocks, indicating potential for sustainable growth in foreign allocations [6][7].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1438.130, down by 7.250 or 0.50% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1285.453, down by 10.633 or 0.82% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3396.400, down by 13.900 or 0.41% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 39.120, down by 0.120 or 0.31% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Rates - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.170, up by 0.07% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.348, down by 0.10% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 147.535, up by 0.13% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.651, down by 0.20% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.797, down by 0.07% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 118952.870, up by 1572.500 or 1.34% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 114.550, down by 0.880 or 0.76% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3698.410, down by 63.920 or 1.70% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 3.498, down by 0.052 or 1.45% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The 2-year US Treasury yield is at 3.867, up by 0.015 or 0.39% [6] - The 5-year US Treasury yield is at 3.927, up by 0.019 or 0.49% [7] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 4.394, up by 0.015 or 0.34% [7] - The 30-year US Treasury yield is at 4.963, up by 0.026 or 0.53% [7] - The 10-year UK Treasury yield is at 4.632, up by 0.028 or 0.61% [7] - The 10-year German Treasury yield is at 2.620, up by 0.002 or 0.08% [7] - The 10-year French Treasury yield is at 3.304, up by 0.006 or 0.18% [7] - The 10-year Italian Treasury yield is at 3.494, up by 0.007 or 0.20% [7] - The 10-year Japanese Treasury yield is at 1.512, down by 0.015 or 0.98% [7]