1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [10][11]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC has increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly in production scheduling next week as maintenance is expected to decrease. The overall inventory is at a high level, while the current demand is close to the historical average. The cost of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4704 - 4766. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [8][9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 352,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 150,840 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 39.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.55 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Different downstream sectors showed mixed trends, with the film and paste resin operating rates being higher than the historical average, while the profiles and pipes operating rates were lower. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand is close to the historical average [9]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 538.3646 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,345.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 2.60%, lower than the historical average, which may put pressure on production scheduling [9]. - **Base Difference**: On October 10, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 383,574 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 300,274 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.96%. Ethylene factory inventory was 83,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.11%. Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.58%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 6.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 18.86% [12]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [10]. - **Expectation**: The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods has strengthened. Supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand is close to the historical average. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends [10]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Price and Volume Trends**: The report presents the price trends of PVC futures contracts such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price, as well as trading volume and open interest trends, including the net position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [24]. - **Basis Trends**: It shows the historical basis trends of PVC futures, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices [20]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread from 2024 to 2025 [26]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: - **Lancoke**: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke from 2016 to 2025 [30]. - **Calcium Carbide**: Presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2018 to 2025 [33]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the price, production trends of liquid chlorine from 2020 to 2025, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory trends of caustic soda from 2019 to 2025 [37][39]. - **PVC Supply Trends**: - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 to 2025 are presented, along with the profit trends of the two methods [41][42]. - **Production and Inventory**: Displays the daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of PVC from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Demand Trends**: - **Downstream Consumption**: Presents the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [46][48]. - **Downstream Industry Operating Rates**: Shows the operating rates of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Paste Resin**: Displays the gross profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [51]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: Presents the real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, housing completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends from 2018 to 2025 [54][55][58]. - **Inventory**: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [60]. - **Ethylene Method**: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import spread from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025 [65].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core View - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc fluctuate and decline, closing with a negative line, with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more short - position reduction. Overall, it was a volume - contracting decline. As prices fell, long - position holders exited actively, and short - position holders exited even more actively. In the short term, the market may fluctuate weakly. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average, with strong moving - average support. The short - term indicator KDJ rose and operated in the strong area; the trend indicator declined, with the long - position strength rising and the short - position strength falling, and the dominance of short - position strength narrowing. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 will fluctuate weakly [19]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,350, and the basis was + 80, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On October 10, LME zinc inventory decreased by 300 tons to 37,950 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,777 tons to 60,644 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 4. Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc fluctuated and declined, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average rising, showing a bullish sign [2]. 5. Main Position Analysis - The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, showing a bearish sign [2]. 6. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on October 10 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on that day totaled 281,454 lots, with a total trading value of 3.15265218 billion yuan. The open interest was 215,372 lots, a decrease of 5,828 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 7. Domestic Main Spot Market on October 10 - The price of zinc concentrate was 17,420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc ingots was 22,350 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets was 4,000 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes was 4,407 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy was 22,850 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder was 27,610 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide was 20,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide was 7,790 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [4]. 8. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/9/22 - 2025/10/9) - On October 9, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.362 million tons. Compared with September 25, it increased by 7,000 tons; compared with September 29, it increased by 73,000 tons [5]. 9. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on October 10 - The total zinc warrants on that day were 60,644 tons, an increase of 1,777 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on October 10 - The LME zinc inventory on that day was 37,950 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared to the previous day [7]. 11. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on October 10 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all increased by 160 yuan/ton [12]. 12. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 470,300 tons [14]. 13. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Market on October 10 - The processing fees of zinc concentrates in different regions varied, with the import processing fee for 48% zinc concentrate being 105 US dollars per dry ton [16]. 14. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Transaction and Position Ranking on October 10 - For the contract code zn2511, the total trading volume of members was 284,573 lots, an increase of 76,994 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 73,034 lots, a decrease of 3,740 lots, and the total short - position volume was 71,273 lots, a decrease of 4,868 lots [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - For rebar, with weak demand, rising inventory at a low level, low purchasing willingness of traders, and the downstream real - estate industry in a downward cycle, it should be treated with a bearish - biased trading range mindset [2]. - For hot - rolled coil, with weakening supply and demand, decreasing inventory, blocked exports, and potential domestic policy efforts, it should also be treated with a bearish - biased trading range mindset [7]. Summary by Related Catalog Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand is lackluster, inventory is rising from a low level, traders' purchasing willingness is low, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The rebar spot price is 3230, and the basis is 127; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities nationwide is 4.673 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; neutral [2]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of rebar's main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - **Likely Factors**: Low production, spot premium, and domestic production - cut expectations [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may be implemented; neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The hot - rolled coil spot price is 3340, and the basis is 55; bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities nationwide is 3.293 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; bearish [7]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of hot - rolled coil's main contract is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Decent demand, spot premium, and domestic production - cut expectations [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report indicates that there are both positive and negative factors in the PVC market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [11] - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [11] - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.42%, a 0.03 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 337,665 tons, a 2.76% month - on - month increase, and ethylene method enterprise production was 140,610 tons, a 6.27% month - on - month increase. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a slight increase in production scheduling [7]. - **Demand side**: The overall downstream开工率 was 47.76%, a 1.5 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 38.91%, a 0.52 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 40.43%, a 0.3 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 63.93%, a 12.9 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 80.31%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. - **Cost side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 783.9115 yuan/ton, a 19.20% month - on - month increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 645.3653 yuan/ton, a 1.00% month - on - month decrease in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,249.25 yuan/ton, a 2.00% month - on - month decrease in profit, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [7]. - **Basis**: On October 9, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 69 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 318,237 tons, a 3.92% month - on - month increase. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250,547 tons, a 3.94% month - on - month increase. Ethylene method factory inventory was 67,690 tons, a 3.81% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 537,700 tons, a 0.56% month - on - month increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.3 days, a 2.91% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [8]. - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [8]. - **Expectation**: Calcium carbide method cost weakens, ethylene method cost strengthens, and the overall cost weakens. Supply pressure increases this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in production scheduling. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,738 - 4,800 [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, spreads, and inventory data of different types of PVC products and related indicators [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the basis, East China PVC market price, and the closing price of the main contract [18]. 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the spread trend chart of the main contract of PVC futures, including the spreads of different contract periods in 2024 and 2025 [24]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lanthanum carbon**: The report presents data on the price, cost - profit,开工率, inventory, and daily output of lanthanum carbon [27]. - **Calcium carbide**: It shows data on the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide [30]. - **Liquid chlorine and raw salt**: Data on the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt are provided [32]. - **Caustic soda**: Information on the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, maintenance volume, and inventory of caustic soda is given [35]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - The report shows data on the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC [39][41]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - The report presents data on the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of different downstream products of PVC. It also includes data on real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment [44][46][48][54][57]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - The report shows data on exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [59]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Data on the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads are provided [61]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents the supply - demand balance sheet of PVC, including data on export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import from August 2024 to September 2025 [64].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-10） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿多执行前期订单，库存维持在中低位水平，产地各煤种价格多以稳为主，部分高价煤 种小幅调整，矿企多持看稳心态，湖南地区一煤矿发生事故，短期煤矿安监或将趋严；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1285，基差121；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线下方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：节日期间随着焦炭首轮涨价全面落地，焦企利润稍有修复，但经过节前补库之后，焦企对原 料煤采购放缓，叠加下游企业利润有限，对 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为81.42%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量33.7665万吨，环比增加2.76%,乙烯法企业产 量14.061万吨，环比增加6.27%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为47.76%，环比减少1.5个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38.91%，环比减少0.52个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.43%，环比增加.3个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于高位；下游浮法玻璃 供给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1170元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1255元/吨，基差为-85元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.15万吨，较前一周减少5.93%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： | 日盘 | 主力合约收盘价 | 重质纯碱：沙 ...

工业硅期货早报 2025年10月9日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 每日观点 利多：成本上行支撑，厂家停减产计划。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | 供给端来看 | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | 3万吨 | 环比有所增加1 | 09% | ， | ， | 。 | . | . | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 需求端来看 | 上周工业硅需求为8 | 6万吨 | 环比增长7 | 需求有所抬升 | 50% | ， | ， | . | . | . ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | 供给端来看 | 根据隆众 | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 | 3万吨 | 环比降幅5 | 同比 | 1% | ， | ， | ， | , | . | . | 增幅17 | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为42 | 环比增加5 | 632个百分点 | 全国样 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market shows a bearish trend fundamentally, with negative factors such as overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels, slow inventory consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [5][11][13]. - The supply pressure has increased this week, and production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4867 - 4925 [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - On September 29, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -116 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [11]. - Factory inventory was 31.8237 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous period, and social inventory was 53.47 tons, a 0.01% increase from the previous period. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 5.3 days, a 2.91% increase from the previous period, which is bearish [11]. - The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, which is neutral [11]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [11]. - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a 3.43% increase from the previous month. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.97%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 337,665 tons, a 2.76% increase from the previous period, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 140,610 tons, a 6.27% increase from the previous period. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 47.76%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 38.91%, a 0.52 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 40.43%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 63.93%, a 12.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 80.31%, a 0.71 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was -783.9115 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 19.20% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was -645.3653 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 1.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2329.25 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, the cost of the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is weakening [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, price changes, inventory, operating rates, and profits of different types of PVC products and enterprises [17]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [20][23][26]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals Calcium Carbide Method - Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [29][32][34][35]. Supply - Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production [40][41][43]. Demand - Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and infrastructure investment [45][47][49][55][58]. Inventory - Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, and social inventory of PVC [60]. Ethylene Method - Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences in the ethylene method [62]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025 [65].