投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短期反弹 | 供应扰动增加，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短期反弹 | 多空交织，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短期反弹 核心逻辑：5 月下旬以来，产地部分煤矿因完成月度生产目标，产量有所回落 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年6月6日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年4月PVC产量为195.4977万吨，环比减少5.51%；本周样 本企业产能利用率为78.19%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量32.898万吨，环比 增加4.55%,乙烯法企业产量12.583万吨，环比减少2.07%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周 预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为46.15%，环比减少0.78个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下 游型材开工率为39.25%，环比减少0.35个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为 43.44%，环比减少1.87个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为73.89%，环比持 平，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树脂开工率为75.85%，环比增加.429个百分点，高于历史 平均水平；船运费用看跌；国内PVC出口价格价格占优；当前需求与历史平均水平接近。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-547元/吨，亏损环比减少11.00%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯 法利润为-505 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着宏观利多因素逐渐消化，甲醇期价转入偏弱供需结构主导的行情。目前国内煤制甲 醇多套装置陆续重启，供应压力再度回升并刷新周度产量历史新高。下游需求改善有限，甲醇制烯 烃期货盘面利润出现回落，不利于港 ...

目 录 1 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年6月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年4月PVC产量为195.4977万吨，环比减少5.51%；本 周样本企业产能利用率为78.19%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量32.898万 吨，环比增加4.55%,乙烯法企业产量12.583万吨，环比减少2.07%；本周供给压力有 所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为46.15%，环比减少0.78个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；下游型材开工率为39.25%，环比减少0.35个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管 材开工率为43.44%，环比减少1.87个百分点，低于历史平均水 ...

沪镍 每日观点 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年6月5日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1、基本面：外盘20均线压力较大，冲高回落。从产业链来看，矿端报价依然坚挺，招标价格高于市场 预期，菲律宾等地雨季出船不顺，但下游铁厂亏损倒挂，有减产预期，需求或有减少。不锈钢仓单继续 流出，现货供应压力仍大。新能源汽车产销数据较好，电池向（6镍）倾向，有利于镍的需求提升。中 长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货123425，基差835，偏多 3、库存：LME库存201624，+162，上交所仓单22299，+261，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2507：震荡偏弱运行，下方成本有支撑。 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年6月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年4月PVC产量为195.4977万吨，环比减少5.51%；本周样本 企业产能利用率为78.19%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量32.898万吨，环比增加 4.55%,乙烯法企业产量12.583万吨，环比减少2.07%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检 修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为46.15%，环比减少0.78个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游 型材开工率为39.25%，环比减少0.35个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为 43.44%，环比减少1.87个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The manganese ore supply surplus situation persists, with sluggish market transactions. Before the holiday, the silicon-manganese futures market showed a continuous weak oscillation, dragging down the spot price. Silicon-manganese manufacturers maintain firm quotes, but downstream steel mills are cautious in purchasing silicon-manganese. Attention should be paid to the actual transaction situation in the silicon-manganese market after the holiday, with a neutral outlook. - The spot price is 5400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is -78 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. - The inventory of 63 independent silicon-manganese enterprises in the country is 186,100 tons, and the average available days of inventory for 50 steel mills in the country is 15.15 days, which is bullish. - The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes below the MA20, which is bearish. - The net long position of the main contract has changed from short to long, which is bullish. - It is expected that the price of manganese-silicon will oscillate this week, with the SM2509 contract oscillating between 5400 - 5580 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese-Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: There are charts showing the monthly production capacity of silicon-manganese enterprises in China [7]. - **Annual Production**: There are charts presenting the annual production of silicon-manganese in various regions of China, including Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas [9]. - **Weekly, Monthly Production, and Operating Rate**: There are charts depicting the weekly and monthly production of silicon-manganese in China and the weekly operating rate of silicon-manganese enterprises [12]. - **Regional Production**: There are charts showing the monthly production of silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as the daily average production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [13][14]. Manganese-Silicon Demand - **Steel Tender Purchase Volume**: There are charts displaying the monthly purchase volume of silicon-manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, Shagang Co., Ltd., and Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., as well as the weekly demand for silicon-manganese in China [15]. - **Steel Tender Purchase Price**: There are charts showing the monthly purchase prices of silicon-manganese by Baoshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron and Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. [17]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: There are charts presenting the weekly daily average hot metal production and the weekly profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China [19]. Manganese-Silicon Import and Export - There are charts showing the monthly import and export volumes of ferromanganese in China [21]. Manganese-Silicon Inventory - There are charts depicting the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon-manganese enterprises in China, the monthly average available days of inventory in China, and the monthly average available days of inventory in the northern region and East China [23]. Manganese-Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: There are charts showing the monthly import volume of manganese ore through different trade methods, the monthly import volume of manganese ore from Gabon to China, the monthly total import volume of manganese ore from southern Africa to China, and the monthly import volume of manganese ore from Australia to China [25]. - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: There are charts presenting the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available days of manganese ore inventory in China [27]. - **High-Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly port inventory of Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port [29]. - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: There are charts displaying the daily aggregated prices of South African semi-carbonate manganese ore (Mn36.5%), Australian manganese ore (Mn45%), and Gabonese manganese ore (Mn44.5%) in Tianjin Port [30]. - **Regional Cost**: There are charts showing the daily cost of silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [33]. Manganese-Silicon Profit - There are charts showing the daily profit of silicon-manganese in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [35].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍2507**: Expected to operate with a weakening trend in a volatile manner [3] - **不锈钢2507**: Expected to operate with a weakening trend in a volatile manner [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **沪镍 Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: Overseas markets were closed yesterday, and the domestic market moved sideways. The ore price quotation remains firm, but iron mills downstream are still in the red, with some loosening in ore prices and a possible downward shift in the cost line. Stainless steel warehouse receipts continue to flow out, and the pressure of spot supply remains high. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, and the battery trend towards (6 nickel) is beneficial for increasing nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Overall, it is bearish [4] - **Basis**: The spot price is 124,150, and the basis is 1,370, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: LME inventory stands at 198,636 (unchanged due to market closure), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 22,250, a decrease of 168, suggesting a bearish signal [4] - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, suggesting a bearish signal [4] **Stainless Steel Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. There is an expectation of a short - term correction in nickel ore prices, and the cost line may loosen. The price of nickel iron shows signs of stopping its decline. Warehouse receipts from the stainless steel exchange continue to flow into the spot market. Overall, it is neutral [6] - **Basis**: The average price of stainless steel is 13,812.5, and the basis is 937.5, indicating a bullish signal [6] - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 139,121, a decrease of 1,304, suggesting a bearish signal [6] - **Market**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, indicating a bullish signal [6] **多空因素 (Influencing Factors Summary)** - **Positive Factors**: The data of new energy vehicles continue to perform well, with year - on - year increases in production and sales in April [8] - **Negative Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new growth points in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Stainless steel warehouse receipts are flowing into the spot market, increasing the supply pressure [8] **镍、不锈钢价格基本概览 (Price Overview of Nickel and Stainless Steel)** - **Futures Prices**: On May 26, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 122,780, up 170 from May 23; the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,875, unchanged from May 23. The London nickel price remained unchanged at 15,570 due to market closure [13] - **Spot Prices**: On May 26, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 124,150, down 25 from May 23; the price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel remained unchanged in major markets [13] **镍仓单、库存 (Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory)** - **As of May 23**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,955 tons, with the futures inventory at 22,418 tons, a decrease of 787 tons and 1,083 tons respectively compared to before [15] - **As of May 26**: LME inventory was 198,636 (unchanged), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 22,250, a decrease of 168. The total inventory was 220,886, a decrease of 168 [16] **不锈钢仓单、库存 (Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory)** - **As of May 23**: Wuxi inventory was 59.01 tons, Foshan inventory was 374,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1,117,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,400 tons. The inventory of the 300 series was 693,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,500 tons [21] - **As of May 26**: The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 139,121, a decrease of 1,304 [22] **镍矿、镍铁价格 (Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices)** - **Nickel Ore**: On May 26, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58.5 dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 31 dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from May 23 [24] - **Nickel Iron**: On May 26, the price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 951 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,450 yuan per ton, both unchanged from May 23 [24] **不锈钢生产成本 (Stainless Steel Production Cost)** - The traditional production cost was 13,250, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,758, and the production cost using low - nickel + pure nickel was 16,826 [26] **镍进口成本测算 (Nickel Import Cost Estimation)** The estimated import price was converted to 126,649 yuan per ton [29]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年5月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年4月PVC产量为195.4977万吨，环比减少5.51%；本周样本 企业产能利用率为80.34%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.2106万吨，环比增 加2.51%,乙烯法企业产量12.523万吨，环比减少3.05%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计 检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为45.99%，环比增加.05个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游 型材开工率为35.9%，环比增加.5个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为 48.13%，环比增加个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile rebound, closing with a positive candle and increased trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with a slightly larger increase in short positions. Overall, it was a volume - driven rebound. The price rebound attracted active long - position entry, while short - selling pressure was stronger. The short - term market may experience a volatile consolidation. Technically, the price closed above the 20 - day moving average, with strong support from the moving average. Short - term indicators KDJ are rising, and the trend indicator shows that long - position strength is increasing while short - position strength is decreasing, with the two forces in a stalemate. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2507 will be in a volatile consolidation state [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In February 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1245 million tons, consumption was 1.1079 million tons, with a supply surplus of 16,600 tons. From January to February, global zinc sheet production was 2.253 million tons, consumption was 2.2275 million tons, with a supply surplus of 25,500 tons. In February, global zinc ore production was 984,000 tons, and from January to February, it was 1.963983 million tons. This situation is bearish [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price of zinc was 22,810 yuan/ton, and the basis was +400, which is bullish [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On May 21, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,150 tons to 157,875 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 126 tons to 1,400 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Futures Market Quotes on May 21 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 230,535 lots, with a total trading value of 2.58754076 billion yuan. Open interest increased by 2,483 lots to 226,378 lots. Different delivery months had different price movements, with price increases in the range of 75 - 240 yuan [3]. 3.5 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on May 21 - The price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17,590 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shanghai was 22,810 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets in China was 4,009 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes in China was 4,400 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23,425 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,640 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 21,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.6 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (April 24 - May 19, 2025) - Compared with the previous Thursday, the total inventory decreased by 0.15 million tons; compared with the previous Monday, it decreased by 0.07 million tons. Inventory in different regions showed different changes, with some regions increasing and some decreasing [5]. 3.7 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on May 21 - The total zinc warrants decreased by 126 tons to 1,400 tons. Warrants in different regions and warehouses had different changes, such as a decrease of 101 tons in Guangdong and a decrease of 25 tons in Jiangsu [6]. 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on May 21 - LME zinc inventory in major global warehouses increased by 1,150 tons to 157,875 tons [7]. 3.9 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on May 21 - Zinc concentrate prices in different regions with a 50% grade were in the range of 17,590 - 17,790 yuan/ton, all up 120 yuan/ton [8]. 3.10 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on May 21 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters were in the range of 22,400 - 24,610 yuan/ton [12]. 3.11 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in April 2025 - The planned production value in April was 454,800 tons, and the actual production was 450,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.20%, and a 0.97% shortfall compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 83.15%, and the planned production for May was 444,100 tons [15]. 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on May 21 - The processing fees for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions were in the range of 3,300 - 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported 48% grade zinc concentrate was 40 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 3.13 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on May 21 - For the zn2507 contract, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 143,011 lots, an increase of 27,262 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 70,186 lots, an increase of 6,750 lots, and the total short - position volume was 71,098 lots, an increase of 7,136 lots [18].