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南财快评丨关税对美国经济不利影响显现,增长呈缓慢减速趋势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-07 10:52
Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]
意大利国家统计局:美关税政策将对全球经贸前景产生负面影响
news flash· 2025-06-06 17:06
当地时间6日,意大利国家统计局发布2025至2026年经济前景展望,预计2025年该国经济增长0.6%, 2026年增长0.8%。报告称,美国关税政策将对全球贸易和经济增长前景产生负面影响。意大利国家统 计局预测,到2025年下半年,美国关税不确定性将有所缓解,但当前依然对企业信心构成影响。2025年 全球经济预计将出现放缓,随后在下一年趋于基本稳定,主要原因是美国贸易政策持续变化带来的不确 定性,以及严重的地缘政治紧张局势。(央视新闻) ...
Lululemon首季增长7%,中国净营收增长22%
放眼全球市场,自美国关税政策调整后,整个运动行业都受到了强烈的冲击。耐克2025财年第一季度北 美市场收入在汇率不变基础上同比下降11%;阿迪达斯2025财年第一季度北美地区的销售额仅增长 3%;彪马2025年第一季度北美地区销售额下滑11.1%;Geox健乐士2024年财年业绩中北美市场营收下 降11.9%...... 21世纪经济报道记者 高江虹 实习生 魏琳 北京报道 6月6日,加拿大运动品牌lululemon(纳斯达克证券代码:LULU)发布了2025财年第一季度财报,展现 强劲的增长势头。在第一季度,公司全球净营收同比增长7%至24亿美元,在各个渠道、品类,以及包 括美国在内的所有市场均实现了增长。其中,国际业务净营收增长19%,中国市场业务净营收同比增长 21%,在固定美元汇率基础上,净营收同比增长22%。 值得注意的是,尽管财报数据显示美洲地区净营收增长3%,但受到美国新一轮关税政策带来的风险, 美洲地区的可比销售额下降2%,按不变汇率计算下降1%。 而从纵向对比来看,这已不是lululemon第一次在北美市场上业绩表现不佳,2024财年全年美洲地区净 营收增长4%,显示出美洲市场消费疲软。Lu ...
5连板共创草坪:美国关税政策目前不确定性较强 公司将持续关注并评估具体影响
news flash· 2025-06-06 11:06
Core Viewpoint - The company, Co-Creation Turf (605099.SH), has experienced a significant stock price increase, with a 58.00% rise over five consecutive trading days, which is notably higher than the Shanghai Composite Index [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company's products are primarily export-oriented, with an expected 88.62% of revenue coming from overseas in 2024 [1] - Revenue from leisure turf and sports turf for 2024 is projected to be 2.052 billion and 594 million respectively, accounting for 69.93% and 20.25% of the main business revenue [1] - Domestic business revenue constitutes 10.8% of total revenue, with leisure turf being the main source of income [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The company is closely monitoring the uncertain U.S. tariff policies and will assess their specific impacts, taking flexible measures in response [1] - The recent increase in interest in the Jiangsu Province urban football league is noted, but the company believes that domestic football events will not significantly impact its operations and performance [1]
奥地利央行预测奥地利2025年的通胀率为3.0%,明年为1.8%,但警告其预测存在“较高的风险”,原因是“不稳定”的美国关税政策。
news flash· 2025-06-06 08:05
奥地利央行预测奥地利2025年的通胀率为3.0%,明年为1.8%,但警告其预测存在"较高的风险",原因 是"不稳定"的美国关税政策。 ...
机构:预测2025年华为手机出货量同比增长11%
news flash· 2025-06-05 01:15
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that CounterPoint Research predicts Huawei's smartphone shipments will increase by 11% year-on-year in 2025 [1] - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies has led to a downward revision of the global smartphone shipment growth forecast from 4.2% to 1.9% for 2025 [1]
美国“股债汇”定价模式失灵?
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 13:38
新华财经上海6月4日电(葛佳明)近期,大类资产市场走势出现了一系列与传统定价机制相悖的状况。 黄金与美债传统收益率的负相关关系失效,美债收益率持续走强,美元则走弱,而美股却在美债收益率 不断上升的状况下持续上行。 美国"股债汇"定价模式转变背后,可以窥见美国的短期通胀问题与长期债务风险,投资者对于美国信用 的担忧,进而令美元承压,而对美股来说,投资者可能更关注市场中的流动性状况,定价的"锚点"正脱 离传统利率水平。 美元、美债走势大幅背离 从历史上看,美债收益率与美元走势通常呈现出同向波动的情况。当美国经济运行良好时,企业盈利攀 升,推动股市等风险资产吸引力上升,使得美债需求下降,美债收益率攀升。在上述情况下,美元也会 同步受益于美国经济的强劲状况,国际资本进一步涌入,增加美元的需求。 但自今年4月以来,因美国关税政策反复,美国10年期国债收益率已从4.16%升至4.42%,而美元指数则 下跌超5%。美元汇率与美债收益率之间的关联性降至近三年最低水平。 一方面,2025财年(2024年10月到2025年4月)以来,美国财政赤字规模整体超预期,而关税以及美国 总统特朗普的减税法案则会对未来的赤字路径产生影响,预 ...
经合组织:美国关税政策削弱世界经济增长前景
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-06-03 22:19
Group 1 - The OECD has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.1% to 2.9% due to the impact of US tariff policies [1][2] - The OECD Secretary-General, Coleman, warned that if the US implements a 10% tariff on all trade partners, global output could decrease by 0.3% in two years [1] - The OECD's Chief Economist, Pereira, highlighted that the uncertainty brought by US tariff policies will severely impact global trade and the world economy [1] Group 2 - The economic growth forecasts for the US in 2025 and 2026 have been downgraded to 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively [2] - The Eurozone's growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain at 1% and 1.2%, while France's forecasts have been downgraded to 0.6% and 0.9% [2] - The OECD warned that new trade barriers and retaliatory actions could further slow economic growth and severely disrupt cross-border supply chains [2]
高频数据跟踪:物价持续走低,航运指数大涨
China Post Securities· 2025-06-03 11:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production heat improved overall with some开工率 rising and others falling; real estate improved marginally; prices continued to decline; shipping indices rose significantly. - Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of new stable - growth stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and changes in US tariff policies [2][34]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Production - Steel: On the week of May 30, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.1 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.18 pct, and the rebar production decreased by 5.97 tons [3][11]. - Petroleum asphalt: The开工率 decreased by 3.1 pct and declined for two consecutive weeks [3][11]. - Chemicals: The PX开工率 increased by 5.33 pct, and the PTA开工率 decreased by 0.58 pct [3][11]. - Automobile tires: The all - steel tire开工率 decreased by 0.16 pct, and the semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.03 pct [3][12]. Demand - Real estate: On the week of May 25, the commercial housing transaction area increased, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, the land transaction area increased, and the residential land transaction premium rate rose [4][15]. - Movie box office: It increased by 0.35 billion yuan on the week of May 25 [4][15]. - Automobiles: On the week of May 25, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increased by 9,648 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 19,637 vehicles [4][18]. - Shipping indices: On the week of May 30, SCFI rose by 30.68%, CCFI rose by 0.92%, and BDI rose by 5.82% [4][22]. Prices - Energy: On May 30, Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.36% to $63.9 per barrel, and coking coal futures prices fell by 9.07% to 741.5 yuan per ton [5][24]. - Metals: On May 30, LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 1.22%, - 0.71%, and - 3.06% respectively, and domestic rebar futures prices fell by 3.01% [5][25]. - Agricultural products: The overall price stabilized, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 0.04%. Pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits prices changed by - 1.38%, - 1.64%, + 1.41%, and - 0.38% respectively compared with the previous week [5][27]. Logistics - Subway passenger volume: On May 30, the seven - day moving average of Beijing subway passenger volume decreased by 20,800 person - times, while that of Shanghai increased by 128,600 person - times [6][30]. - Flight volume: On May 28, domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan), domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan), and international flight volumes decreased [6][31]. - Urban traffic: On May 30, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased [6][31].
台湾5月PMI转为扩张 专家:厂商情绪“谈不上乐观”
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-06-02 12:29
Group 1 - The Taiwan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 2.1 percentage points to 51% in May, indicating a shift from contraction to expansion compared to April [1] - The future outlook index for May is at 40.9%, marking the second consecutive month of contraction [1] - Among the five components of the PMI, new orders and employment remain in contraction, while production activity has shifted to expansion [1] Group 2 - In the manufacturing sector, three industries—electronics and optics, electrical and mechanical equipment, and chemicals and biotechnology—are experiencing expansion, while transportation, basic raw materials, and food and textiles are still in contraction [1] - The Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (NMI) rose by 0.9 percentage points to 51.9% in May, marking three consecutive months of expansion [1] - Factors such as conservative business outlook, stock market corrections, and low consumer confidence are impacting economic trends [2]