Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" [4] - The specific companies recommended for "Increase" rating are Sany Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), and CRRC (601766) [4] Core Viewpoints - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam includes a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on goods transiting through Vietnam to the US, which is expected to influence export chains [3][36] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in June 2025 were 77.2 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9.11% [13] - Sales of various excavators in June 2025 reached 18,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [14] - Sales of various loaders in June 2025 reached 12,014 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [15] Industry Data - As of July 4, 2025, the steel composite price index (CSPI) was 90.53 [16] - As of July 8, 2025, the WTI and Brent crude oil prices were $67.93 per barrel and $69.58 per barrel, respectively [17] Company Announcements - Zhonghe Technology plans to establish an aerospace venture capital fund with professional investment institutions, with a total fund size of 50.05 million yuan [23] - Hangcha Group's subsidiary, Hangcha Intelligent, intends to acquire 99.23% of Guozhi Robot through a capital increase and share expansion [24] - Shandong Molong announced a forecast for its half-year performance in 2025, with a year-on-year decline in net profit of 92.36%-94.12% [25] Market Review - From July 2 to July 8, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.41%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry increased by 0.42%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.99 percentage points [26] - As of July 8, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry was 26.93, with a valuation premium of 114.94% relative to the CSI 300 [27]

Core Insights - The household appliance industry experienced a decline of 1.2% in the Shenwan household appliance index from the beginning of 2025 until June 29, ranking 26th among Shenwan industries [4][13] - The overall performance of the household appliance industry in 2024 and Q1 2025 was good, but the index showed weakness compared to the strong performance in 2024 [4][6] - Factors contributing to the weak index performance include reduced demand elasticity from national subsidies, uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies, low real market demand, and a shift in market style towards new consumption trends [4][6][12] Outlook for H2 2025 - The implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies is expected to stimulate household appliance consumption, which remains a crucial part of domestic demand [6] - China, as the largest global manufacturer and exporter of household appliances, holds significant production capacities, with 81.3% for air conditioners, 57.6% for refrigerators, and 52% for washing machines in 2023 [6] - Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America may present important opportunities for growth, while global leading companies are expected to enhance industry concentration through their advantages in design, manufacturing, and supply chains [6][8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors that still have demand under normalized national subsidy policies, such as air conditioning and kitchen small appliances [8] - Pay attention to export-oriented companies targeting emerging markets or those with overseas production capabilities to mitigate U.S. exposure [8] - Consider companies that are diversifying into new industries such as electric vehicles and robotics [8] - Look for significantly undervalued high-dividend stocks, as a shift in funding styles or rising risk aversion may create favorable market conditions [8] H1 2025 Review - The household appliance index's performance was weak, with the appliance parts sector leading with a 16.3% increase, while the white goods sector saw a decline of 4.7% [15][19] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the household appliance industry is currently at 14.3X, ranking 28th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, indicating a relatively low valuation level [19][25] - The dividend yield for the household appliance industry stands at 3.7%, ranking 4th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, supported by strong cash flow [25][26] Sales and Production Trends - In the first five months of 2025, air conditioner domestic sales reached 54.236 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, while external sales were 49.25 million units, up 11.4% [31] - Refrigerator domestic sales for the first four months of 2025 were 14.414 million units, down 1.4% year-on-year, while external sales were 17.362 million units, up 9.2% [36] - Washing machine domestic sales for the first four months of 2025 were 14.925 million units, up 8.4% year-on-year, with external sales at 15.198 million units, also up 8.5% [41] - Television domestic sales for the first four months of 2025 were 11.62 million units, a slight increase of 0.2%, while external sales reached 32.35 million units, up 2% [46] Cost and Pricing Pressures - From January to July 2025, LME copper and aluminum prices increased by 4.4% and 7.1%, respectively, indicating ongoing cost pressures for appliance manufacturers [48] - The average exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to the Chinese yuan remained stable at 7.17, presenting a neutral impact on companies engaged in overseas business [54] - High shipping costs continue to compress profit margins for exports, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariff policies contributing to this pressure [58]

根据指数的3个月平均动向等做出的机械性总体评估由截至上月的"止跌"转为"恶化"。此次是 消费税增税及新冠疫情时期重叠的2019年8月至2020年7月以来首次做出"恶化"评估。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 此次是消费税增税及新冠疫情时期重叠的2019年8月至2020年7月以来首次做出"恶化"评估。出口及批发 销售额是主要负面因素。美国关税政策可能导致日本经济下行压力进一步加大…… 7月7日，日本内阁府公布的5月景气动向指数显示，对经济形势的总体评估自2020年7月以来 首次转为"恶化"。从定义上来说，这表明经济处于衰退局面的可能性很高。出口及批发销售 额是主要负面因素。美国特朗普政府的关税政策可能会导致日本经济下行压力进一步加大。 反映当前经济状况的一致指数（2020年=100）为115.9，环比下降0.1个百分点。这是两个 月以来再次下降。在构成该指数的10个项目中，有5个项目是负面因素。 ...

据央视新闻报道，德国前总理默克尔表示欧盟不应惧怕美国关税。这位70岁的资深政治家，在国际舞台 上有着丰富经验，她的此番言论，无疑给正处于美国关税压力下的欧盟，提供了一个新的思考方向。 默克尔指出，美国看似强大的关税政策，实则是虚张声势。特朗普政府威胁称，若7月9日前美欧贸易谈 判无突破，将对欧盟商品征收50%关税。目前，美国已对欧盟钢铝产品征收50%关税，对汽车领域征收 25%关税，对几乎所有其他商品征收10%基准关税。这一系列举措，让欧盟内部不少人感到恐慌，担心 自己成为美国贸易大棒下的牺牲品。 从数据上看，欧盟对美出口占其GDP约3%，而内部消费占比达70%以上。这意味着，美国市场并非欧 盟经济的命门，欧盟有足够的空间与美国周旋，有时间去争取更有利的议价条件。并且，欧盟若能协同 绿能、高端制造、数字法规三条线，未来五年有望填补潜在出口缺口40%以上，这是欧委会的内部测 算，具有一定的可靠性。 但默克尔有着自己的判断。她认为，美国的关税政策，最终买单的还是美国老百姓。美国是消费型经济 体，经济增长依赖于消费。就像尼泊尔产的裤子，成本10美元，美国本土生产要50美元，即便美国对尼 泊尔裤子加200%关税，其售 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. tariff policy since 2025 has been characterized by broad scope, significant magnitude, and high uncertainty, impacting the global economy profoundly [1] Group 1: Impact on Global Trade and Capital Flow - The U.S. tariff increases have raised import prices, suppressing global trade vitality and leading to a decline in trade volume [2] - The World Bank forecasts global trade growth rates of 1.8% and 2.4% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, down by 1.3 and 0.8 percentage points from earlier predictions [2] - Capital flows have become more diversified due to the turbulence caused by U.S. tariff policies, with Japan's exports to the U.S. dropping by 11.1% year-on-year in May 2025 [2] Group 2: Impact on Global Economic Growth - The U.S. tariff policy has a significant negative effect on global economic growth, with the World Bank predicting a growth rate of only 2.3% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 2.7% [2] - Rising import prices due to tariffs reduce consumer purchasing power, leading to decreased demand [2] - Trade uncertainties have made businesses more cautious in their investment decisions, resulting in many potential projects being shelved or canceled [2] Group 3: Reshaping International Trade Rules - The U.S. tariff policy challenges existing international trade rules, aiming to reconstruct a trade order favorable to itself under the "America First" principle [3] - Other economies are strengthening existing agreements or exploring new regional trade agreements to protect their interests, leading to a more multipolar development of global trade rules [3] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities for China - Major challenges for China include rising costs, profit compression, loss of orders, and increased pressure for supply chain relocation [4] - Opportunities for China involve accelerated domestic substitution, innovation-driven development, expansion of the domestic market, and optimization of global market layout [4] Group 5: China's Response to U.S. Tariff Policies - China has demonstrated a firm stance and multi-faceted response strategies against U.S. tariff policies, quickly opposing unreasonable tariffs and implementing countermeasures [5] - Strengthening communication and cooperation with other economies has been a priority, with trade shares in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Africa increasing [6] - China has actively called for the role of multilateral mechanisms, opposing protectionism and maintaining the authority and fairness of the multilateral trade system [6] - Overall, China's efforts have significantly enhanced global confidence in addressing U.S. tariff policies and have provided a stabilizing effect on both the Chinese and global economies [6]

Group 1: Characteristics of US Tariff Policy - The US tariff policy since 2025 has shown a broad coverage and significant expansion, imposing a 10% basic tariff on nearly all imported goods, impacting various industries including electronics, machinery, chemicals, and textiles [2][3] - The tariff rates are differentiated based on trade deficit and competitive relationships, with complex exemption processes for even "friendly" countries, indicating a strategic use of tariffs for economic and political goals [3] - The policy exhibits high uncertainty, with frequent adjustments causing confusion among global trade participants, complicating long-term business planning [3] Group 2: Impact on the US Economy - The tariff policy aims to protect domestic industries and reduce trade deficits, but it has led to rising inflation pressures, with the Federal Reserve adjusting GDP growth forecasts down by 0.3 percentage points to 1.4% for 2025 [4] - US companies, including local and foreign firms, face increased import costs disrupting supply chains, with small furniture manufacturers and farmers in the Midwest experiencing severe financial difficulties due to tariff impacts [5] - The US's international credibility is damaged due to erratic policy changes, leading to decreased confidence among global investors and trade partners, reflected in the reduced attractiveness of US Treasury bonds [6] Group 3: Global Economic and Financial Impact - The US tariff policy disrupts global trade and capital flows, raising import prices and suppressing trade activity, with the World Bank predicting a decline in global trade growth rates for 2025 and 2026 [7][8] - The policy negatively affects global economic growth, with rising import prices reducing consumer purchasing power and investment uncertainty leading to cautious business decisions [8] - The tariffs challenge existing international trade rules, prompting a shift towards new regional trade agreements and increasing the influence of emerging economies in global trade rule-making [8] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities for China - China's export costs rise due to US tariffs, particularly in the automotive sector, where exports to the US reached $17.15 billion in 2024, leading to profit compression and increased logistics costs [9][10] - The demand for Chinese exports in machinery, textiles, and apparel declines as US tariffs diminish price competitiveness, with a potential 20-30% drop in textile exports anticipated with a 10% tariff increase [10] - The pressure to relocate supply chains increases as multinational companies consider moving production to regions with lower tariffs, impacting China's position in global supply chains [11] Group 5: China's Response to US Tariff Policy - China has taken a firm stance against US tariffs, implementing reciprocal measures and engaging in trade talks to maintain economic relations [13] - The country is enhancing trade ties with other economies through initiatives like the Belt and Road, reducing reliance on the US market and expanding its global trade footprint [13][14] - China is advocating for multilateral mechanisms to address US violations of trade rules, strengthening its position in global trade discussions and enhancing its economic resilience [14]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The report focuses on the cotton market, including domestic and international cotton prices, trading volumes, and the impact of US tariff policies. It also analyzes the current situation of the cotton spot and textile markets [1][2]. Group 2: Cotton Market Data Futures Market - CF2509 closed at 13,780 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.04% daily increase and 13,850 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.51% increase. CY2509 closed at 20,000 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.17% daily increase and 20,070 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.35% increase. ICE US Cotton 12 was at 68.43 cents/pound [1]. - The trading volume of CF2509 was 170,707 lots yesterday, a decrease of 20,256 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 836,329 lots, a decrease of 5,890 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,668 lots yesterday, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,872 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,067 yesterday, a decrease of 73, and the effective forecast was 262, a decrease of 4. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 6, a decrease of 4 [1]. Spot Market - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,810 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 15,171 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day, and the price in Hebei was 15,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan from the previous day. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 75.96 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous day [1]. Price Spreads - The CF9 - 1 spread was 0, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. Group 3: Market Situation Domestic Cotton Spot - Cotton spot trading was sluggish, with weak downstream purchasing willingness, and the overall basis remained stable. Different regions and qualities of cotton had different basis quotes relative to CF09 [2]. Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises - The pure cotton yarn market changed little, with still - low demand. The previous increase in cotton yarn prices did not drive speculative restocking, and spinning mill inventories continued to rise. The overall sales of the cotton greige fabric market were weak, with poor sales by weavers and high inventory pressure, and greige fabrics were sold at discounted prices depending on the quantity [2]. US Cotton - ICE cotton futures were closed on Friday due to a US holiday. This week, the market mainly focuses on the impact of US tariff policies on ICE cotton [2]. Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].

工人日报-中工网记者 莫荞菲 热点播报 HOTSPOTS 鲍威尔：面对质疑仍"观望" 6月18日，美联储主席鲍威尔在华盛顿出席记者会。新华社记者 胡友松 摄 降息还是不降息？这是美联储主席鲍威尔今年以来持续面临的问题。 当地时间7月1日，鲍威尔在葡萄牙举行的欧洲央行中央银行论坛上重申，美联储对进一步降息的前景保 持耐心观望态度，但不排除在本月会议上降息的可能性，一切都取决于即将公布的数据。鲍威尔说，美 联储正密切关注关税政策对物价和经济增长的影响，若非担忧关税可能破坏美联储抑制通胀的努力，美 联储可能早已继续推进降息进程。 鲍威尔的这一表态与其此前在美国国会参加听证会时的表态类似。当时鲍威尔也称美联储将采取观望态 度。鲍威尔还说，如果通胀压力仍然得到控制，美联储降息的时刻将会到来，且"宜早不宜迟"。 美联储上一次降息是在2024年12月，在此之后，美联储已经连续4次保持利率不变。美国总统特朗普上 任以来，多次施压美联储降息，但鲍威尔不为所动。 就在近日，特朗普再次喊话鲍威尔降息。6月30日，他在社交媒体上称美国是全球关键利率水平最高的 央行之一，这让美国损失数以千亿计美元。7月1日，他又提到美联储新任主席的备 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 近期，受美国对外经贸谈判有望达成协议、减税法案推动和三季度降息预期的影响，美股再度创新高。7月9日 美国对多数国家的对等关税豁免即将到期，美国能否如期达成贸易协议？如果不能，特朗普是会选择进一步延 期，还是会选择重新上调对等关税税率？ 核心观点： 结合新闻和美国多位高官表态，我们猜测7月9日前后，美国可能会分类推动对外经贸谈判，以度过7月9日的截 止日期： 第一，7月9日之前，美方重点推动10个经贸协议的谈判，重点是亚洲国家。美越已达成初步贸易协议，印度、 马来西亚、印度尼西亚也有可能率先与美国达成共识。 第二，约10个国家的谈判时间将放宽至9月1日之前，呼应了美国财政部长贝森特和白宫发言人关于截止日不重 要的表态。目 ...

·银河期货：预计贵金属整体仍将维持偏强走势 ·五矿期货：美联储货币政策预期转松背景下重点关注白银做多机会 ·道富投资管理：未来几个季度金价波动将趋缓但仍可继续看涨 ·国投期货：短期贵金属延续震荡关注美国关税重要节点政策变动对市场情绪的影响 ·国投期货表示，隔夜美国公布6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人好于普遍预期，失业率下降0.1个百 分点至4.1%，就业市场保持韧性令美联储9月降息预期有所降温，金价有所回落。短期贵金属延续震 荡，关注美国关税重要节点政策变动对市场情绪的影响。 ·五矿期货表示，"大而美法案"获众议院表决最终通过，美国宽财政政策即将落地实施，而这必定需要 联储宽松的货币政策以配合。在昨夜非农数据超预期的情况下，白银价格仍具备韧性。超预期的非农就 业人数令市场降低了对于后续美联储降息幅度的预期，CME利率观测器显示，当前市场定价联储下半 年分别在9月以及10月议息会议中进行25个基点的降息操作。下半年联储的进一步宽松是具备确定性 的，宽财政需要与宽货币紧密配合。联储将会在七月份议息会议中维持利率不变，但表态将会边际转鸽 派。并在九月份议息会议中进行25个基点的降息操作。在美联储货币政策预期转 ...