Inflation & Tariffs - The report suggests that tariffs' impact on goods inflation was not significant in the current CPI print [2] - Services inflation showed broad-based gains, raising concerns about overall inflation [3] - The expectation is that the impact of tariffs on inflation will increase in the second half of the year [4] - Corporations may initially absorb tariff costs, but will eventually pass them on to consumers, particularly in sectors with low margins like groceries [10][11] - Uncertainty remains regarding the ultimate tariff rate and its full impact on the economy [11] Monetary Policy & Fed - The market anticipates an aggressive path of rate cuts, which is reflected in equity market performance [5] - The analyst suggests the Fed should consider only one or two rate cuts this year due to inflation concerns [3] - Political factors and dovish Fed governors could influence the Fed's decisions [5] - The analyst believes reason will prevail within the Fed committee, leading to rate cuts, but potentially only 25 basis points [6][7] - A 25 basis point rate cut may not significantly benefit the mortgage market or other interest rate-sensitive sectors if the 10-year yield rises [7] Bond Market & Yields - The 2-year Treasury yield is expected to range between 350 and 400 basis points (35%-4%) due to aggressive policy easing already priced in [14] - The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain range-bound between 400 and 450 basis points (4%-45%) [14] - The 30-year Treasury yield is more volatile and dependent on global bond yields [14][15]

I want to start with you on CPI today, the big day for data. First, are you buying these numbers because these are from BLS. Yes, I'm buying the numbers and I want to amplify a little bit.Would Romain said this wasn't a bad report or just an okay report is a very good report. Let me explain the quirk. The CPI came in at 2.7%, which seems significantly above target.But in fact, the Federal Reserve uses another gauge called the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. We love the piece. That one runs to 2.2%, ...

Inflation & Tariffs - Core CPI annualized basis came in a little hotter than expected, at the highest since February [2] - Sequential core inflation and underlying inflation data are showing an uptick after two years of moving closer to the Fed target [3] - Tariff pass-through is having a moderate impact and is likely to grow in the months ahead [3] - Import-sensitive categories like furniture, appliances, and car parts are seeing a shift towards higher inflation [4] Economic Growth & Labor Market - Recent economic data shows some labor market weakening and slowing in economic activity and growth [4] - There are medium-term questions about the effect of tariffs on both inflation and economic growth/employment [4] Consumer Spending & Impact on Working Class - Tariffs disproportionately affect low and moderate-income households [8] - Wage growth is slowing down at the bottom of the income distribution [9] - Consumer spending has been almost flat in the aggregate over the last six months, likely weaker at the bottom of the distribution [9] Healthcare & Student Loans - Premiums for those getting healthcare through Affordable Care Act exchanges will increase, in some cases by 10-20% starting in 2026 [11] - The turning off of the student loan pause is already showing its way in some of the credit score data [12] - There are challenges in the bottom half of the distribution that policymakers will need to be attuned to [13] Data Integrity - It's critical that members of the US Senate interrogate the nominee and press him on whether he can commit to providing credible nonpartisan data completely free from political interference [5] - Business leaders and market participants should make their voices heard about the importance of US economic data being respected [6]

Let's bring in SoFi's Liz Thomas and RS Asset Management's Carrie Firestone who as you see are here at Post 9 as well. Well, ladies, nice to see you. Nice to see you, too.Liz, what do you think about what you just heard. I think it sounds pretty optimistic and I got to say I too much so. No, not too much.So I I think you have to take a long-term view in order to hop on that optimistic train at this point not only in the year but at this level of valuations at this point where we're waiting for so much data ...

Our next guest says rate cuts are looking more likely following today's CPI report. He's calling for a 100 basis points by year end starting with 50 next month. For more, let's bring in Barry Knap, director of research at Iron's macroeconomics.Barry, it's great to have you on. We have this market meltup here on the heels of CPI. Does it make sense to you. It does.Um the market until today at least um was increasingly narrow driven by the whole Gen AI theme. Um for a couple of years we've had pressure on sma ...

A rise in the CPI on a month over month basis, bang on with consensus up 2/10 of a percent. The core is up 3/10 of a percent. We'll check that out in terms of three digits on a year over year basis, that takes us to 2.7% for headline and 4 to 3.1% for the core on a year over year basis.That's more than thought. So this must have been a very high 3/10 of a percent. Trying to take a look at some of what we're seeing in terms of the actual changes in the categories.And we'll look here and see some of the ones ...

Inflation & Monetary Policy - A new regime for inflation and bond yields is anticipated [2] - The economy slowing down could help pull inflation down, but this scenario is undesirable [2] - The Federal Reserve might consider rate cuts with inflation above target and a softening job market, similar to the 1995 scenario where 325 basis point (3.25%) insurance cuts occurred with inflation at approximately 2.3% [3] - A rate cut in September is largely priced in, making it difficult for the Fed to argue against [4] - Jackson Hole symposium later in August (August 21st-23rd) is expected to provide more clarity on the Fed's leaning [5] Economic Data & Analysis - US government data is considered the best globally, with dedicated efforts to ensure data accuracy [1] - Bloomberg Intelligence suggests that a CPI print of 0.2% on the headline indicates the PC print will allow the Fed to ease in September [5] - Modernizing government data collection is necessary but challenging, requiring resources and careful consideration to avoid disrupting historical data analysis [7][8] - Budget cuts to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have reduced resources for data modernization [8] - Firing the head of the BLS is viewed as performative and damaging to the credibility of U S institutions [9]

Live streaming on Kick talking markets, CPI, ETH, Abstract and morehttps://t.co/mR4ZZM6Jb2 ...

21:32 美股开盘丨三大指数集体高开 | 标普500期货小型 | 6436.00d 36.25 0.57% | | --- | --- | | 道琼斯期货小型 | 44337d 253 0.57% | | 纳斯达克100期货小型 23791.50d 154.00 0.65% | | | 纳斯达克100期货微型 23791.75d 154.25 0.65% | | 20:53 以太坊突破4400美元，现报4401.94美元，24小时涨幅达到5.37%。 20:38 现货黄金短线升至3354美元/盎司高点后大幅回落，现报3346美元/盎司。 20:32 美国7月CPI同比增长2.7%，前值为2.7%；美国7月CPI环比增长0.2%，前值为0.3%。 道指涨0.4%，纳指涨0.58%，标普500指数涨0.44%。大型科技股多数走高，特斯拉涨超1%，英特尔涨 超2%。 （文章来源：第一财经） 21:07 美股三大股指期货走高，纳指期货日内涨0.65%，标普500指数期货涨0.57%，道指期货涨0.57%。 ...

EnglishItalianoEspañolPortuguêsDeutschالعربيةFrançaisImportant DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your ...