Group 1 - The upcoming November inflation report is expected to have limited impact on the market, with traders showing indifference compared to previous months [1][2] - The report's reliability is questioned due to the lack of October data and interruptions in government surveys, making it less significant for market reactions [1][2] - Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during the January policy meeting, focusing more on employment data than inflation figures [2][3] Group 2 - Market expectations for the CPI growth rate are around 3%, with any significant deviation potentially surprising traders [3] - The importance of inflation reports is diminishing as the term of Fed Chair Jerome Powell nears its end, with expectations for a successor who may favor aggressive rate cuts [3] - Seasonal factors may lead traders to downplay the significance of the upcoming inflation data, as the market approaches a traditionally bullish period [3]

每经AI快讯，12月17日消息，欧元区11月CPI同比增长2.1%，预期增长2.2%；11月CPI环比下降0.3%， 预期下降0.3%。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月17日，英国11月CPI同比增长3.2%，预期增长3.5%；11月CPI环比下降0.2%，预期持 平。 ...

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Labor Market Analysis - Initial market reaction to slightly higher than expected unemployment rate was quickly reassessed [1] - Labor force participation rate increase mitigates concerns about the unemployment rate [2] - November payroll number of 64,000 was close to expectations, and another payroll report before the January meeting will further diminish the importance of these figures [2] Consumer Spending and Earnings - Retail sales control group number was strong, indicating healthy consumer spending [3] - Average hourly earnings, while slightly weaker month-over-month, still show a 35% year-over-year increase, suggesting continued wage growth [3] - Real incomes and the wealth effect are supporting consumption, driving market movement [4] Monetary Policy and Bond Market - Potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, possibly starting in March, combined with fiscal stimulus, could lead to a sell-off at the long end of the yield curve [4] - Bond market signals that while the Fed controls the short end, the long end reacts to better growth, sticky inflation, and high capital demand, pushing up the term premium [5] - Average hourly earnings growth of 35% year-over-year is the slowest pace since May 2021, influencing CPI expectations [6] Inflation and Tariffs - Inflation data, particularly CPI, is crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy pivot [6][7] - Tariff-related components are seen as drivers of underlying inflation stickiness, with the key question being whether this is a one-off event or an ongoing inflationary process [8] - There is a consensus that tariff inflation should be a one-off event, with wages being a more critical factor in the process of inflation [9] - Wage growth, while still present, is also showing signs of slowing down [9]

Do you think that this really changes the needle in any way. Well, Lisa, you stole my opening line. I was going to do a little hat tip to our friend and colleague, Jonathan Ferro.He always says the first reaction is not always the right reaction. And you said that at the top of the hour there at the top of the segment. You know, the headline was what the markets were reacting to, the little bit higher than expected unemployment rate.I think you guys in the earlier segment decomposed that pretty well the lab ...

LATEST: ⚡️ Bitcoin fell below $86,000 today as markets await key US inflation data releases this week, with analysts saying the upcoming CPI and PCE reports could set the tone for the rest of December. https://t.co/1L0mte1Ahj ...

The US Bureau of Labor is set to release the November CPI inflation data on Thursday, December 18th. The report is likely to be noisy, as it skips the October CPI report dueAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business r ...

每经AI快讯，12月15日消息，尼日利亚11月CPI同比上涨14.45%，预估增幅为15.0%。 ...

研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号：F3053225 投资咨询证号：Z0015885 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 国债期货周报：重要会议落地，盘面波动加大 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 第二部分 相关数据追踪 12 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 内容摘要 ◼【综合分析】 逻辑梳理：本周部分月度宏观数据密集公布，整体有喜有忧。其中金融数据方面，新型政策性金融工具带动企业部门融资需求上升是 最大亮点，但基数抬升等因素共同作用下，M1增速则继续放缓。相较于基本面数据而言，市场关注点更多集中在重要会议的内容上 。周四公布的中央经济工作会议通稿内容未超预期。财政政策方面，"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"的表述降低了明 年财政在"量"上大幅加码的概率。而货币政策适度宽松的基调不变，且将"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，明年政策利率调 降仍然可期。不过，周五上 ...