证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2025 11 24 年 月 日 固定收益定期 生产资料价格环比回升——基本面高频数据跟踪 本期国盛基本面高频指数为 128.8 点（前值为 128.7 点），当周同比增加 6.1 点（前值为增加 6.1 点），同比增幅不变。利率债多空信号下调，信号 因子为 3.9%（前值为 4.1%）。 生产方面，工业生产高频指数为 127.5，前值为 127.5，当周同比增加 5.2 点（前值为增加 5.2 点），同比增幅不变。 总需求方面，商品房销售高频指数为 41.4，前值为 41.5，当周同比下降 6.2 点（前值为下降 6.2 点），同比降幅不变；基建投资高频指数为 122.5， 前值为 122.5，当周同比增加 9.1 点（前值为增加 9.1 点），同比增幅不变； 出口高频指数为 143.6，前值为 143.6，当周同比增加 0.8 点（前值为增加 0.9 点），同比增幅收窄；消费高频指数为 120.7，前值为 120.7，当周同 比增加 3.3 点（前值为增加 3.5 点），同比增幅收窄。 物价方面，CPI 月环比预测为 0.1%（（前值 0.1%）；PP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of fixed - income fundamentals from November 10th to November 16th, 2025. The overall high - frequency index of fundamentals is stable, with changes in various sub - indices such as production, demand, prices, inventory, transportation, and financing. For example, the industrial production high - frequency index shows a narrowing increase, the real estate sales high - frequency index has a stable decline, and the infrastructure investment high - frequency index has an expanding increase [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 128.7 points (previous value: 128.6 points), with a week - on - week increase of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.1 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with a signal factor of 4.1% (previous value: 4.4%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.5, with a week - on - week increase of 5.2 points (previous value: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year increase narrows. The electric furnace and PX operating rates increase. The electric furnace operating rate is 60.9% (previous value: 59.6%), and the PX operating rate is 90.5% (previous value: 89.9%) [1][9][15]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales - The high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 41.5, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.2 points (previous value: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year decline remains unchanged. The transaction land premium rate drops. The 100 - large - city transaction land premium rate is 1.4% (previous value: 3.6%) [1][9][28]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.5, with a week - on - week increase of 9.1 points (previous value: 9.0 points), and the year - on - year increase expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt continues to decline, with a current operating rate of 29.0% (previous value: 29.7%) [1][9][42]. 3.5 Export - The high - frequency index of exports is 143.6, with a week - on - week increase of 0.9 points (previous value: 1.0 points), and the year - on - year increase narrows. The container freight rate index rises continuously. The CCFI index is 1094.0 points (previous value: 1058.2 points) [1][9][44]. 3.6 Consumption - The high - frequency index of consumption is 120.7, with a week - on - week increase of 3.5 points (previous value: 3.6 points), and the year - on - year increase narrows. The average daily box office of movies rises, reaching 54410,000 yuan (previous value: 29640,000 yuan) [1][9][54]. 3.7 CPI - The monthly - on - monthly CPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%). The price of white - striped chickens rises slightly, with an average wholesale price of 17.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.6 yuan/kg) [1][9][60]. 3.8 PPI - The monthly - on - monthly PPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The spot prices of coal and copper rise slightly. The ex - warehouse price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port is 832 yuan/ton (previous value: 798 yuan/ton), and the LME copper spot settlement price is 10841 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10704 US dollars/ton) [1][9][62]. 3.9 Transportation - The high - frequency index of transportation is 132.6, with a week - on - week increase of 10.5 points (previous value: 10.4 points), and the year - on - year increase expands. The highway logistics freight rate index rises slightly, reaching 1051 points (previous value: 1050 points) [2][10][74]. 3.10 Inventory - The high - frequency index of inventory is 163.0, with a week - on - week increase of 7.9 points (previous value: 8.0 points), and the year - on - year increase narrows. The inventory scale of electrolytic aluminum and soda ash increases. The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 122,000 tons (previous value: 116,000 tons), and the soda ash inventory is 1,707,000 tons (previous value: 1,703,000 tons) [2][10][82]. 3.11 Financing - The high - frequency index of financing is 242.2, with a week - on - week increase of 30.5 points (previous value: 30.4 points), and the year - on - year increase expands. The net financing of local bonds turns from negative to positive, with a net financing of 242.8 billion yuan (previous value: - 36 billion yuan) [2][10][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of Guosheng bond - related fundamentals from November 3, 2025, to November 9, 2025. It shows that the Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is stable with changes in various sub - indicators. The interest - rate bond long - short signal is adjusted downwards, and different economic aspects such as production, demand, prices, inventory, transportation, and financing present different trends [1][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index is Stable - The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 128.6 points (previous value: 128.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.0 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The interest - rate bond long - short signal factor is 4.4% (previous value: 4.6%), a decrease of 0.2 percentage points [1][9][11]. 3.2 Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Drops - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.5 points (previous value: 127.4 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 point and a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points (previous value: 5.4 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The electric furnace operating rate is 59.6% (previous value: 60.9%), a decrease of 1.3 percentage points [1][9][15]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Drops Significantly - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 41.7 points (previous value: 41.9 points), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 point and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2 points (previous value: 6.1 points), and the year - on - year decrease is expanding. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 18.8 million square meters (previous value: 31.7 million square meters), a decrease of 12.9 million square meters [1][9][29]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Drops - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 122.4 points (previous value: 122.3 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 9.0 points (previous value: 8.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The asphalt operating rate is 29.7% (previous value: 31.5%), a decrease of 1.8 percentage points [1][9][44]. 3.5 Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Rise - The export high - frequency index is 143.6 points (previous value: 143.6 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 point and a year - on - year increase of 1.0 point (previous value: 1.1 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The CCFI index is 1058.2 points (previous value: 1021.4 points), an increase of 36.8 points [46]. 3.6 Consumption: Average Daily Movie Box Office Drops - The consumption high - frequency index is 120.6 points (previous value: 120.7 points), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.0 point and a year - on - year increase of 3.6 points (previous value: 3.6 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The average daily movie box office is 29630,000 yuan (previous value: 30900,000 yuan), a decrease of 1270,000 yuan [1][9][55]. 3.7 CPI: Food Prices Rise Slightly Overall - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.1% (previous value: 0.0%). The average wholesale price of pork is 18.1 yuan/kg (previous value: 18.0 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.6 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.1 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.5 yuan/kg) [2][61]. 3.8 PPI: Spot Prices of Copper and Aluminum Drop - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 10704 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10964 US dollars/ton), a decrease of 261 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2859 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2868 US dollars/ton), a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton [2][64]. 3.9 Transportation: Transportation High - Frequency Index Rises Steadily - The transportation high - frequency index is 132.4 points (previous value: 132.1 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 10.4 points (previous value: 10.3 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 39790,000 person - times (previous value: 40550,000 person - times), a decrease of 750,000 person - times; the road logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (previous value: 1049 points), an increase of 0.3 point; the number of domestic flights is 12273 (previous value: 12461), a decrease of 188 [2][76]. 3.10 Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases - The inventory high - frequency index is 162.9 points (previous value: 162.8 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 8.0 points (previous value: 8.1 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 11.6 million tons (previous value: 8.5 million tons), an increase of 3.1 million tons; the soda ash inventory is 170.3 million tons (previous value: 169.7 million tons), an increase of 0.6 million tons [2][82]. 3.11 Financing: Net Financing of Local Bonds Drops Significantly - The financing high - frequency index is 241.6 points (previous value: 241.0 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 point and a year - on - year increase of 30.4 points (previous value: 30.4 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The net financing of local bonds is - 36 billion yuan (previous value: 178 billion yuan), a decrease of 213.9 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is 92 billion yuan (previous value: - 12.6 billion yuan), an increase of 104.6 billion yuan [2][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index is 128.4 points (previous value: 128.3 points), with a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points (previous value: 5.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has widened. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds has been downgraded, with a signal factor of 4.7% (previous value: 4.9%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.4 (previous value: 127.4), with a year - on - year increase of 5.4 points (previous value: 5.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 42.0 (previous value: 42.2), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.1 points), and the year - on - year decline remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.1 (previous value: 122.0), with a year - on - year increase of 8.7 points (previous value: 8.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.6 (previous value: 143.6), with a year - on - year increase of 1.3 points (previous value: 1.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed; the high - frequency index of consumption is 120.6 (previous value: 120.6), with a year - on - year increase of 3.7 points (previous value: 3.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly - on - monthly forecast of CPI is 0.0% (previous value: 0.1%); the monthly - on - monthly forecast of PPI is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%) [1][9][10]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 162.7 (previous value: 162.5), with a year - on - year increase of 8.2 points (previous value: 8.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed. - The high - frequency transportation index is 131.9 (previous value: 131.7), with a year - on - year increase of 10.2 points (previous value: 10.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded. - The high - frequency financing index is 240.4 (previous value: 239.8), with a year - on - year increase of 30.3 points (previous value: 30.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index is 128.4 points, with a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate has widened. The long - short signal factor of interest - rate bonds is 4.7%, a decrease from the previous value [1][9][11]. Production: Polyester Operating Rate Slightly Increases - The electric - furnace operating rate is 60.9%, unchanged from the previous value; the polyester operating rate is 89.1%, an increase from the previous value of 88.0%; the semi - tire operating rate is 73.7%, an increase from the previous value of 72.7%; the full - tire operating rate is 65.6%, an increase from the previous value of 64.5%; the PTA operating rate is 76.0%, an increase from the previous value of 75.6%; the PX operating rate is 86.3%, a decrease from the previous value of 87.3%; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 46.9 tons, a decrease from the previous value of 54.4 tons [11][16]. Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Slightly Declines - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 28.7 million square meters, a decrease from the previous value of 31.0 million square meters; the land premium rate of transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 2.0%, unchanged from the previous value [26]. Infrastructure Investment: Infrastructure High - Frequency Index Rises Steadily - The infrastructure high - frequency index is 122.1, with a year - on - year increase of 8.7 points, and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded. The operating rate of local refineries is 50.0%, a decrease from the previous value of 50.3% [11][35]. Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 993 points (previous value: 973 points); the RJ/CRB index is 299.6 points (previous value: 294.2 points) [43]. Consumption: Daily Average Box Office of Movies Continues to Decline - The daily average box office of movies is 32.82 million yuan, a decrease from the previous value of 37.49 million yuan [54]. CPI: Pork Prices Slightly Decrease - The latest average wholesale price of pork is 17.7 yuan/kg, a decrease from the previous value of 18.3 yuan/kg; the latest average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.2 yuan/kg, an increase from the previous value of 5.0 yuan/kg; the latest average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.0 yuan/kg, a decrease from the previous value of 7.1 yuan/kg; the latest average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.7 yuan/kg, an increase from the previous value of 17.6 yuan/kg [60]. PPI: Prices of Coal, Copper, Aluminum, and Oil Have All Increased - The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 765 yuan/ton, an increase from the previous value of 727 yuan/ton; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 63 US dollars/barrel, an increase from the previous value of 62 US dollars/barrel; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 10,679 US dollars/ton, an increase from the previous value of 10,588 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,814 US dollars/ton, an increase from the previous value of 2,765 US dollars/ton [65]. Transportation: Subway Passenger Volume Slightly Declines - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 39.59 million person - times, a decrease from the previous value of 40.26 million person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, an increase from the previous value of 1049 points; the number of domestic flights is 13,007, an increase from the previous value of 12,790 [75]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Decreases - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 11.8 tons, a decrease from the previous value of 16.8 tons; the soda - ash inventory is 170.6 tons, an increase from the previous value of 169.3 tons [84]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Bonds Significantly Increases - The net financing of local bonds within the week is 165.8 billion yuan, an increase from the previous value of - 19.8 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is 135.2 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous value of 184.7 billion yuan; the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 0.6%, a decrease from the previous value of 0.7%; the average value of the bill rate minus the certificate of deposit rate is - 1.00%, a decrease from the previous value of - 0.93% [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of national economic fundamentals from September 19 to September 26, 2025, showing that the overall economic situation is stable with some fluctuations in different sectors [1][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.9 points (previous value: 127.8 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 5.8 points (previous value: 5.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 5.0% (previous value: 5.0%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production: PTA Operating Rate Drops Slightly - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.1 (previous value: 127.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 5.4 points (previous value: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - The PTA operating rate is 76.5% (previous value: 77.3%), a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [11][16]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commodity Housing Transaction Area Rises Slightly - The commodity housing sales high - frequency index is 42.5 (previous value: 42.6), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2 points (previous value: 6.3 points), and the year - on - year decline has narrowed [1][9]. - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 26.7 million square meters (previous value: 21.3 million square meters) [11][27]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Rises - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 121.3 (previous value: 121.2), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 7.3 points (previous value: 6.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 40.1% (previous value: 34.4%), an increase of 5.7 percentage points [11][42]. 3.5 Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The export high - frequency index is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 1.8 points (previous value: 2.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed [1][9]. - The CCFI index is 1087 points (previous value: 1120 points), a decrease of 33 points [11][44]. 3.6 Consumption: Average Daily Box Office of Movies Rises Significantly - The consumption high - frequency index is 120.4 (previous value: 120.4), with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 3.5 points (previous value: 3.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - The average daily box office of movies is 138.85 million yuan (previous value: 118.67 million yuan), an increase of 20.18 million yuan [11]. 3.7 CPI: Wholesale Price of Pork Drops Slightly - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%) [1][9]. - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 19.7 yuan/kg) [62]. 3.8 PPI: Copper and Coal Prices Continue to Rise - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.1% (previous value: 0.0%) [1][9]. - The spot settlement price of LME copper is $10024/ton (previous value: $9950/ton), and the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is $2648/ton (previous value: $2701/ton) [68]. 3.9 Transportation: Passenger Volume Drops Slightly - The transportation high - frequency index is 131.0 (previous value: 130.8), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 9.8 points (previous value: 9.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [2][10]. - The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 35.19 million person - times (previous value: 38.71 million person - times) [79]. 3.10 Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Drops - The inventory high - frequency index is 162.2 (previous value: 162.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 8.6 points (previous value: 8.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed [1][10]. - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 188,000 tons (previous value: 206,000 tons) [86]. 3.11 Financing: Net Financing of Local Bonds Rises Significantly - The financing high - frequency index is 238.0 (previous value: 237.4), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 point and a year - on - year increase of 30.1 points (previous value: 30.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [2][10]. - The net financing of local bonds is 122.5 billion yuan (previous value: 30.9 billion yuan) [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.6 points (previous value was 127.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 5.6 points (same as the previous value), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is unchanged, with a signal factor of 5.0% (previous value was 5.0%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.9 (previous value was 126.7), with a week - on - week increase of 5.3 points (previous increase was 5.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - Regarding total demand, the high - frequency index for commercial housing sales is 42.8 (previous value was 42.9), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.3 points (same as the previous value), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index for infrastructure investment is 121.0 (previous value was 120.8), with a week - on - week increase of 6.5 points (previous increase was 6.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded; the high - frequency index for exports is 143.7 (previous value was 143.7), with a week - on - week increase of 2.1 points (previous increase was 2.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed; the high - frequency index for consumption is 120.3 (previous value was 120.2), with a week - on - week increase of 3.3 points (previous increase was 3.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly环比 forecast for CPI is 0.1% (previous value was 0.4%); the monthly环比 forecast for PPI is 0.0% (previous value was 0.1%) [2][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 161.9 (previous value was 161.7), with a week - on - week increase of 8.8 points (same as the previous value), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The high - frequency transportation index is 130.6 (previous value was 130.4), with a week - on - week increase of 9.6 points (previous increase was 9.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded. The high - frequency financing index is 236.8 (previous value was 236.2), with a week - on - week increase of 30.0 points (previous increase was 29.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [2][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is based on a statistical system covering various aspects such as overall, production, demand, prices, and financing. The current index is 127.6 points, with a stable year - on - year growth rate [8][9]. 3.2 Production: Electric Arc Furnace Operating Rate Rebounds - The electric arc furnace operating rate is 62.8% (previous value was 62.2%); the polyester operating rate is 87.4% (previous value was 87.1%); the semi - tire operating rate is 73.5% (previous value was 67.5%); the full - tire operating rate is 65.6% (previous value was 59.8%); the PTA operating rate is 75.0% (previous value was 69.5%); the PX operating rate is 85.9% (previous value was 84.6%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 49.0 tons (previous value was 51.4 tons) [11][15]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Declines - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 19.6 million square meters (previous value was 22.0 million square meters); the land premium rate for land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 4.4% (previous value was 1.8%) [24]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Rises Significantly - The operating rate of the asphalt plant is 34.9% (previous value was 28.1%) [38]. 3.5 Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1125 points (previous value was 1149 points); the RJ/CRB index is 300.7 points (previous value was 301.3 points) [40]. 3.6 Consumption: Average Daily Movie Box Office Continues to Decline Significantly - The average daily movie box office is 51.14 million yuan (previous value was 81.9 million yuan) [49]. 3.7 CPI: Average Wholesale Price of White - Strip Chickens Rises Slightly - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.9 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.1 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 6.9 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value); the average wholesale price of white - strip chickens is 17.6 yuan/kg (previous value was 17.5 yuan/kg) [56]. 3.8 PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Rise Slightly - The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Shanxi - produced, Q5500) is 676 yuan/ton (previous value was 682 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 67 US dollars/barrel (unchanged from the previous value); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9882 US dollars/ton (previous value was 9829 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2644 US dollars/ton (previous value was 2613 US dollars/ton) [58]. 3.9 Transportation: Flight Passenger Volume Drops Significantly - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 37.16 million person - times (previous value was 36.26 million person - times); the road logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (previous value was 1051 points); the number of domestic flights is 11,468 (previous value was 13,157) [69]. 3.10 Inventory: Aluminum Inventory Continues to Rise - The aluminum inventory is 193,000 tons (previous value was 174,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 1.81 million tons (previous value was 1.821 million tons) [75]. 3.11 Financing: Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Increases Significantly - The net financing of local government bonds is 192.8 billion yuan (previous value was 36.7 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 91.9 billion yuan (previous value was - 55.3 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 0.8% (previous value was 0.73%); the average of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.8% (previous value was - 0.88%) [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The updated time of the current fundamental high - frequency data is from August 22, 2025, to August 29, 2025. The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.4 points, with a week - on - week increase of 5.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds expands, with a signal factor of 5.0% [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.6, with a week - on - week increase of 5.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 43.0, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points, and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 120.7, with a week - on - week increase of 5.8 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 120.0, with a week - on - week increase of 3.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month forecast of CPI is 0.1%, and that of PPI is 0.2%, both remaining unchanged from the previous values [2][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 161.6, with a week - on - week increase of 8.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency transportation index is 130.2, with a week - on - week increase of 9.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the high - frequency financing index is 235.6, with a week - on - week increase of 29.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering the overall situation, production, demand, prices, and financing is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and sub - indices are built [8]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.4 points, with a week - on - week increase of 5.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [1][9]. Production: PTA Operating Rate Drops Significantly - The electric furnace operating rate is 62.8%, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the polyester operating rate is 86.7%, up from 86.5%; the semi - tire operating rate is 72.8%, down from 73.1%; the full - tire operating rate is 63.8%, down from 64.8%; the PTA operating rate is 70.9%, down from 76.2%; the PX operating rate is 84.6%, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 48.4 tons, up from 47.7 tons [11][16]. Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Increases - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 245,000 square meters, up from 212,000 square meters; the land premium rate for transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 1.6%, down from 10.3% [30]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Decreases - The operating rate of petroleum devices is 29.3%, down from 30.7% [39]. Exports: Export Container Freight Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1156 points, down from 1175 points; the RJ/CRB index is 301.0 points, up from 296.9 points [46]. Consumption: Daily Average Box Office of Movies Decreases - The daily average box office of movies is 152.4 million yuan, down from 176.7 million yuan [61]. CPI: Agricultural Product Prices Remain Stable - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.0 yuan per kilogram, down from 20.1 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.9 yuan per kilogram, up from 4.8 yuan; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 6.9 yuan per kilogram, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.6 yuan per kilogram, up from 17.5 yuan [68]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Rise - The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (produced in Shanxi) is 695 yuan per ton, down from 703 yuan; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 68 US dollars per barrel, up from 67 US dollars; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9725 US dollars per ton, up from 9616 US dollars; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2616 US dollars per ton, up from 2577 US dollars [72]. Transportation: Passenger Volume Drops Slightly - The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 39.37 million person - times, down from 40.09 million person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the number of domestic flights is 14,473, down from 14,834 [83]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 153,000 tons, up from 138,000 tons; the soda ash inventory is 1.878 million tons, down from 1.904 million tons [91]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Continues to Rise - The net financing of local government bonds is 243.5 billion yuan, up from 208.8 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is - 30.4 billion yuan, up from - 48.4 billion yuan; the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 0.7%, up from 0.6%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.9%, up from - 1.03% [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 127.0 points (previous value: 126.9 points), with a week - on - week increase of 5.4 points (previous increase: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The long - short signal factor for interest - rate bonds was 4.7% (previous value: 4.6%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index was 126.3 (previous value: 126.2), with a week - on - week increase of 5.0 points (previous increase: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged [1][9]. - Regarding total demand, the high - frequency index for commercial housing sales was 43.4 (previous value: 43.6), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points (previous decrease: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remained unchanged; the high - frequency index for infrastructure investment was 120.1 (previous value: 120.0), with a week - on - week increase of 4.8 points (previous increase: 4.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded; the high - frequency index for exports was 143.8 (previous value: 143.9), with a week - on - week increase of 3.1 points (previous increase: 3.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed; the high - frequency index for consumption was 119.8 (previous value: 119.7), with a week - on - week increase of 2.7 points (previous increase: 2.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly环比 forecast for CPI was 0.2% (previous value: 0.1%); the monthly环比 forecast for PPI was 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%) [1][9]. - The high - frequency index for inventory was 161.1 (previous value: 161.1), with a week - on - week increase of 9.1 points (previous increase: 9.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed. The high - frequency index for transportation was 129.6 (previous value: 129.4), with a week - on - week increase of 9.1 points (previous increase: 9.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The high - frequency index for financing was 233.9 (previous value: 233.3), with a week - on - week increase of 29.7 points (previous increase: 29.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged [2][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - Based on the report "Fundamental High - Frequency Data - An Effective Tool for Taking the Lead in Bond Market Investment" published on September 5, 2023, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, and financing was constructed, and the Guosheng Fixed - Income Fundamental High - Frequency Index and its sub - items were developed [8]. - During August 4 - 8, 2025, the Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 127.0 points, with a year - on - year increase of 5.4 points and an expanding growth rate [1][9]. Production: PTA Operating Rate Declined Significantly - The electric furnace operating rate was 63.5% (previous value: 62.8%); the polyester operating rate was 86.2% (previous value: 86.8%); the semi - tire operating rate was 74.4% (previous value: 74.5%); the full - tire operating rate was 61.0% (previous value: 61.1%); the PTA operating rate was 75.9% (previous value: 79.7%); the PX operating rate was 82.4% (previous value: 82.4%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port was 38.0 tons (previous value: 47.5 tons) [11][13]. Real Estate Sales: Transaction Land Premium Rate Declined - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 17.9 square meters (previous value: 24.4 square meters); the transaction land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.6% (previous value: 9.0%) [22]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Declined - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants was 31.7% (previous value: 33.1%) [32]. Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continued to Decline - The CCFI index was 1201 points (previous value: 1232 points); the RJ/CRB index was 293.6 points (previous value: 301.9 points) [39]. Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Continued to Rise - The daily average movie box office was 24,143 yuan (previous value: 23,068 yuan) [52]. CPI: Vegetable Wholesale Prices Continued to Rise - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.4 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 4.4 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits was 7.0 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.1 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens was 17.4 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.2 yuan/kg) [59]. PPI: Steam Coal Price Continued to Rise - The ex - works price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port was 674 yuan/ton (previous value: 658 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 67 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 72 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper was 9613 US dollars/ton (previous value: 9672 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum was 2592 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2596 US dollars/ton) [65]. Transportation: Passenger Volume Remained Stable Overall - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities was 3886 person - times (previous value: 3902 person - times); the road logistics freight rate index was 1050 points (previous value: 1050 points); the number of domestic flights was 14,580 (previous value: 14,562) [77]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increased - The electrolytic aluminum inventory was 19.7 tons (previous value: 18.1 tons); the soda ash inventory was 185.8 tons (previous value: 179.0 tons) [85]. Financing: Local Government Bond Financing Continued to Decline - The net financing of local government bonds was 828 billion yuan (previous value: 2425 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds was 1973 billion yuan (previous value: 134 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate was 0.7% (previous value: 0.55%); the average value of the bill rate minus the certificate of deposit rate was - 0.9% (previous value: - 1.09%) [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.9 points, with a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.6% [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.2, with a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the real - estate sales high - frequency index shows a year - on - year decline of 6.4 points, with the decline rate remaining unchanged; the infrastructure investment high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 4.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the export high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 3.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the consumption high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 2.6 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1%, and the PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.2%, both remaining unchanged from the previous values [1][9]. - The inventory high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 9.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the transportation high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 9.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the financing high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 29.7 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.9 points (previous value: 126.8 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points (previous value: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.6% (previous value: 4.6%) [1][9]. 2. Production: Electric Arc Furnace Operating Rate Rebounds - The electric arc furnace operating rate is 62.8%, up from the previous value of 62.2%; the polyester operating rate is 86.8%, down from the previous value of 86.9%; the semi - tire operating rate is 74.5%, down from the previous value of 75.9%; the full - tire operating rate is 61.1%, down from the previous value of 65.0%; the PTA operating rate is 79.7%, down from the previous value of 80.8%; the PX operating rate is 82.4%, the same as the previous value; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 47.5 tons, down from the previous value of 49.4 tons [11][16]. 3. Real - Estate Sales: Property Transactions Continue to Rebound - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 24.4 square meters, up from the previous value of 21.0 square meters; the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 9.0%, up from the previous value of 7.8% [28]. 4. Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Rebounds - The operating rate of asphalt plants is 33.1%, up from the previous value of 28.8% [38]. 5. Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1232 points, down from the previous value of 1261 points; the RJ/CRB index is 301.9 points, down from the previous value of 303.8 points [45]. 6. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail and Wholesale Sales Continue to Rebound - Passenger car manufacturers' retail sales are 66,611 units, up from the previous value of 58,207 units; wholesale sales are 77,867 units, up from the previous value of 57,826 units; the average daily box office is 23,068 yuan, up from the previous value of 14,066 yuan [59]. 7. CPI: Wholesale Prices of Pork and White - Feathered Chicken Decline Slightly - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.5 yuan/kg, down from the previous value of 20.7 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.4 yuan/kg, the same as the previous value; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg, the same as the previous value; the average wholesale price of white - feathered chicken is 17.2 yuan/kg, down from the previous value of 17.4 yuan/kg [65]. 8. PPI: Steam Coal Price Continues to Rise - The closing price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 658 yuan/ton, up from the previous value of 649 yuan/ton; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 72 US dollars/barrel, up from the previous value of 69 US dollars/barrel; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9672 US dollars/ton, down from the previous value of 9821 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2596 US dollars/ton, down from the previous value of 2647 US dollars/ton [68]. 9. Transportation: Passenger Volume Rebounds - The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 3902 person - times, up from the previous value of 3900 person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, the same as the previous value; the number of domestic flights is 14,562, up from the previous value of 14,428 [82]. 10. Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Continues to Decline - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 18.1 tons, up from the previous value of 15.5 tons; the soda ash inventory is 179.0 tons, down from the previous value of 187.4 tons [90]. 11. Financing: Local Government Bond and Credit Bond Financing Declines - The net financing of local government bonds is 2425 billion yuan, down from the previous value of 2929 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is 134 billion yuan, down from the previous value of 549 billion yuan; the 6M state - owned stock bill transfer discount rate is 0.6%, down from the previous value of 0.74%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 1.1%, down from the previous value of - 0.91% [100].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from July 7th to July 11th, 2025. It shows that the overall high - frequency index of fundamentals is stable, while different sectors have different trends, such as a decline in real estate sales, an increase in infrastructure investment growth rate, and a narrowing increase in export growth rate [1][9]. Summary by Directory Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.6 points (previous value was 126.5 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.2 points (previous value was also an increase of 5.2 points), and the year - on - year increase rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.7% (previous value was 4.8%) [1][9]. Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Declines - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.9 (previous value was 125.8), with a year - on - year increase of 4.9 points (previous value was also an increase of 4.9 points), and the year - on - year increase rate remains unchanged. The electric furnace operating rate drops to 57.1% from 59.0% [1][9][15]. Real Estate Sales: Property Transactions Decline - The high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 44.0 (previous value was 44.1), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4 points (previous value was also a decrease of 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 19.6 million square meters, down from 37.8 million square meters [1][9][29]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Declines - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 119.3 (previous value was 119.0), with a year - on - year increase of 3.4 points (previous value was an increase of 3.0 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 32.7%, up from 31.7% [1][9][39]. Export: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The export high - frequency index is 144.0 (previous value was 144.1), with a year - on - year increase of 4.4 points (previous value was an increase of 4.7 points), and the year - on - year increase rate narrows. The CCFI index drops to 1314 points from 1343 points [1][9][45]. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail and Wholesale Decline - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.6 (previous value was 119.5), with a year - on - year increase of 2.1 points (previous value was an increase of 1.9 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. Passenger car manufacturers' retail is 39,660 units, down from 95,374 units; wholesale is 38,757 units, down from 154,429 units [1][9][57]. CPI: Fruit Prices Continue to Decline - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value was - 0.1%). The average wholesale price of 7 kinds of key - monitored fruits is 7.3 yuan/kg, down from 7.4 yuan/kg [1][9][65]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Decline - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1% (previous value was 0.0%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 9,769 US dollars/ton, down from 10,047 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,587 US dollars/ton, down from 2,598 US dollars/ton [1][9][74]. Transportation: Flight Numbers Continue to Rise - The transportation high - frequency index is 128.8 (previous value was 128.6), with a year - on - year increase of 8.6 points (previous value was an increase of 8.5 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) is 14,401 flights, up from 13,985 flights [2][10][87]. Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Increases - The inventory high - frequency index is 160.8 (previous value was 160.6), with a year - on - year increase of 9.5 points (previous value was an increase of 9.6 points), and the year - on - year increase rate narrows. The soda ash inventory is 185.6 million tons, up from 178.9 million tons [2][10][93]. Financing: 6M State - owned Joint - stock Bank Draft Rediscount Rate Decreases - The financing high - frequency index is 231.5 (previous value was 230.9), with a year - on - year increase of 29.5 points (previous value was an increase of 29.4 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The 6M state - owned joint - stock bank draft rediscount rate is 0.91%, down from 1.01% [2][10][103].