Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, indicating stability in monetary policy amid mixed economic signals [1][2] Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR has remained unchanged for six consecutive months since a reduction in May, aligning with market expectations due to stable policy rates [1] - The stability in LPR is attributed to the unchanged pricing basis from the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate and a lack of incentive for banks to lower LPR amid historically low net interest margins [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - Recent economic data shows a decline in domestic investment, consumption, and industrial production, raising concerns about growth momentum [2] - The central bank's upcoming monetary policy may include new interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate economic activity, particularly in light of low inflation levels [2] - The anticipated fiscal measures, including two 500 billion yuan initiatives, are expected to support the economy and potentially lead to lower LPR rates, thereby encouraging financing demand [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that global economic growth rate may slow to 3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, stabilizing in 2027 due to resilient consumer and capital spending [1] - The growth levels in the US, China, and the Eurozone vary significantly, with the US expected to see a notable slowdown in the first half of 2026, but a rebound in the second half, leading to a projected real GDP growth rate of 1.8% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027 [2] - China's real GDP is expected to grow by 5% in 2026, supported by government policies, but will decline to 4.5% in 2027 as fiscal stimulus effects wane [2] - The Eurozone is projected to maintain moderate growth, with rates of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, influenced by fiscal support in Germany being offset by economic adjustments in France and Italy [2] Group 2 - Inflation is expected to continue its downward trend globally, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index in the US projected to rise in early 2026 before gradually declining, reaching 2.6% by the end of 2026 and 2.3% by the end of 2027 [2] - The Eurozone's overall inflation expectations are anticipated to remain below the European Central Bank's 2% target, with rates expected to be 1.7% at the end of 2026 and 2027 [2] - In Japan, inflation rates are expected to slightly dip below 2% by the end of 2026 before returning to the target in 2027, while China's core CPI inflation is projected to hover below 0% due to slow economic adjustments [3] Group 3 - Major economies are expected to adopt neutral monetary policies due to moderate inflation, with the Federal Reserve likely to continue cutting rates until April, maintaining a target rate of 3%-3.25% [3] - The European Central Bank plans to keep rates unchanged but is expected to lower rates twice in 2026, bringing the policy rate down to 1.5% by mid-year [3] - The Bank of England is projected to reduce rates to 2.75% in 2026, while the Bank of Japan is the only major developed market central bank expected to raise rates, potentially increasing to 0.75% in December [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year is set at 3.0% and for five years and above at 3.5%, remaining unchanged for six consecutive months since June 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: LPR Announcement - The LPR is calculated based on quotes from 20 banks, reflecting the market interest rates for loans [4]. - The LPR is published on the 20th of each month, with adjustments made for holidays, and is determined by removing the highest and lowest quotes and averaging the remaining ones [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Direction - The central bank aims to enhance the interest rate adjustment framework, strengthen policy interest rate guidance, and improve the market-based interest rate formation mechanism [4]. - The focus is on reducing banks' funding costs and promoting a decrease in the overall financing costs for society [4][5]. Group 3: Continuous Improvement of LPR - There is an ongoing effort to reform and improve the LPR to better reflect the actual loan market interest rates [5]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to adhere to risk pricing principles and align loan rates with market rates such as bond yields [5].

"从LPR报价机制看，作为LPR定价基础的7天期逆回购操作利率为1.40%，并未发生变化，因此LPR较 难下降。"招联金融首席研究员董希淼对《华夏时报》记者表示，从银行方面看，随着持续向实体经济 减费让利，银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小。三季度末商业银行净息差为1.42%，尽管与二季度持平，但较 去年四季度末下降了10个基点。因此，银行缺乏压降LPR报价加点的动力。 文/刘佳 11月20日，最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）报价出炉。其中，5年期以上LPR报3.5%，上月为 3.5%。1年期LPR报3%，上月为3%。LPR继续选择"按兵不动"，连续6个月保持不变，符合市场预期。 谈及下一阶段货币政策，董希淼认为，未来一段时间，适度宽松的货币政策虽还有一定实施空间，但边 际效率已经明显下降。过度放松货币金融条件可能产生的一些负面效果也需要关注，比如资金空转、资 本市场波动加大等。因此，市场应降低对下一步大幅度降准降息的预期。 编辑：冯樱子 ...

招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼表示，未来一段时间，预计央行将通过逆回购、 买断式逆回购等工具，加强对中短期市场流动性的调节；通过中期借贷便利（MLF）操作等措施，继 续释放中长期流动性，优化流动性期限结构，进一步满足政府债券发行、信贷投放增加等对市场流动性 的需求，保持金融市场流动性充裕，更好地引导金融机构加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持 服务。 财信金控首席经济学家、财信研究院副院长伍超明则认为，四季度降息和调降LPR概率较小。 央行数据显示，10月企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约40个基点；个 人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约8个基点。 央行发布的三季度货币政策执行报告提到，实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资条件相对宽松。 根据经济金融形势的变化，做好逆周期和跨周期调节，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。密切关注海外主 要央行货币政策变化，持续加强对银行体系流动性供求和金融市场变化的分析监测。综合运用多种货币 政策工具，保持流动性充裕。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示表示，接下来稳楼市政策需要进一步加力。预计四 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a stable monetary policy environment aimed at supporting economic recovery and maintaining liquidity in the financial system [1] Group 1: Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and Interest Rates - As of November 20, 2025, the 1-year LPR is set at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, both remaining unchanged from the previous month [1] - The only adjustment to the LPR this year occurred in May, where both the 1-year and 5-year LPR were reduced by 10 basis points [1] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the average rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The PBOC's third-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain relatively relaxed social financing conditions [1] - Analysts expect that the regulatory authorities may further lower the 5-year LPR to alleviate high actual mortgage rates and stimulate housing market demand in the fourth quarter [2] - Future monetary policy actions may include using reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) to enhance liquidity management and support key strategic areas [4] - Some economists believe the probability of interest rate cuts and LPR adjustments in the fourth quarter is low, citing manageable GDP growth targets and stable inflation [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a favorable investment outlook for risk assets in 2026, particularly recommending a bullish stance on stock assets, especially in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index expected to reach 7,800 points by the end of 2026 [1][7]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that by 2027, the Chinese economy will begin to recover, driven by food planning recommendations, improved US-China trade relations, and forecasts for the US and global economies. Key drivers for this recovery include technological innovation and consumer spending [1][4]. - The US economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026-2027, with AI investments boosting short-term economic performance and long-term productivity. The annualized profit growth for the US stock market is projected to reach 15% from 2025 to 2027 [1][7]. - The Chinese real GDP growth rate is forecasted to be 7.8% in 2026, with nominal GDP growth at 4.1%. By 2027, real GDP growth is expected to slightly slow to 4.6%, while nominal GDP growth rebounds to 4.8% [1][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - 2026 is viewed as the final year of China's battle against deflation, with significant progress expected by 2027. The US economy is projected to show resilience, particularly due to AI-related investments [3][4]. - The Asian economy's growth drivers are expected to shift from technology sectors to non-technology sectors, especially in domestic demand and consumption [14][15]. Stock Market Insights - The US stock market is favored, with expectations of broad market gains rather than reliance on a few large companies. Japan's stock market is also viewed positively due to favorable fiscal policies, while European stocks are expected to benefit from a strong US economy [7][8]. - Emerging markets are relatively underweighted, but India, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia are highlighted as favorable investment opportunities [2][7]. Policy Recommendations - To address challenges in the Chinese real estate market, potential policy measures include subsidizing mortgage rates, learning from Hong Kong's experience in removing purchase restrictions, and enhancing social feedback mechanisms [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the need for aggressive macroeconomic support policies to achieve significant valuation recovery in the Chinese stock market, which is expected to stabilize around a price-to-earnings ratio of 12-13 times [9][10].

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a significant decline in immigration expected to lead to slower labor force growth in the coming years, with net immigration projected to drop to approximately 515,000 this year [2] - The IMF warns that tightening immigration policies could have a substantial negative impact on economic growth, estimating that deporting 10% of undocumented immigrants could shrink GDP by 3.3% [2] - The recent government shutdown has delayed the release of key unemployment data, which will now be included in the November employment report scheduled for December 16 [2] Group 2 - Data from mid-September to mid-October indicates a notable increase of nearly 40,000 in the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits, suggesting weakened hiring intentions among businesses [3] - The persistent rise in continuing claims reflects ongoing labor market weakness, which is also affecting household financial expectations and dragging down the real estate sector, as evidenced by the homebuilder confidence index remaining low for 19 consecutive months [3] - The rapid growth of capital flow within the AI sector raises concerns about the potential for AI to replace many entry-level white-collar jobs in the next five years [3] Group 3 - Concerns about the labor market are a key reason behind the Federal Reserve's consideration of restarting a monetary easing cycle, despite internal disagreements among policymakers regarding interest rate cuts [4] - The absence of employment data may influence the decision-making of the Fed's voting members, with some officials advocating for rate cuts to prevent a significant rise in unemployment [4] - As of the latest updates, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting is 32.7%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates is 67.3% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter is expected to be a process of asset allocation rebalancing, with significant importance placed on asset allocation this year, particularly in the context of the equity market's substantial rise in the second and third quarters [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has recently announced the resumption of bond buying, which is a liquidity injection tool aimed at addressing short-term liquidity pressures in the bond market [1][2] - The PBOC's bond buying in October was limited to 20 billion, but if extended over a month, it could return to a normal level of around 100 billion, indicating a continued commitment to maintaining a loose monetary environment [2] - The resumption of bond buying is expected to stabilize the bond market, particularly for ten-year government bonds, suggesting that the market will enter a period of reduced volatility [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Supply Pressure - The bond market is expected to return to its allocation characteristics, with a focus on longer-duration bonds that exhibit lower volatility, particularly the ten-year bonds [3] - There is significant supply pressure in the bond market due to weak demand from the real economy, but this pressure is expected to ease towards the end of the year, especially after November [3][4] - The year-end period is typically a time when large traditional bond investment institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, engage in pre-allocating bonds for the upcoming year, leading to a temporary imbalance in supply and demand [3] Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Market Outlook - Current fiscal stimulus measures are expected to be moderate, with a focus on 500 billion in policy financial tools and another 500 billion in advance local government bond issuance, which may support stable economic growth but not lead to significant upturns [4] - The overall economic environment remains weak, with indicators such as PMI and financing data suggesting that the economy is still in a bottoming phase, which is reflected in the real estate sector as well [4] - The bond market is seen as relatively favorable under these conditions, with limited upward risks and a stable environment expected through the year-end window [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The bond market is viewed as having high allocation value, particularly from November to the pre-Spring Festival period, with limited space for further declines in yields [5] - The central bank's lack of intent to lower interbank funding prices suggests that the bond market will maintain a stable yield level, with the ten-year government bond being a key focus for investors seeking both allocation and trading opportunities [5][6] - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as an advantageous investment tool, providing easy access to the bond market and supporting flexible trading options for investors [6]

这是LPR自6月份以来连续6个月保持不变。 贷款市场报价利率（LPR）由各报价行按公开市场操作利率加点形成的方式报价，由全国银行间同业拆借中心计算得出，为 银行贷款提供定价参考。目前，LPR包括1年期和5年期以上两个品种。 来源：中国人民银行 11月20日9时，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布， 2025年11月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期 LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。 以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 深体深秘 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查绞计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征 ...