| 名称 | 最新点位 | 、涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3342.67 | +26.56(0.8%) | | 深证指数 | 10104.13 | +21.79(0.22%) | | 创业板指 | 1996.51 | +10.1(0.51%) | | | 日期:5月7日 制图:21投资通 | | | 名标 | 报价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 41113.97 | 2 0.7% | | 纳斯达克 | > 17738.16 | 0.27% | | 标普500 | 5631.28 | 0 43% | | 富时100 | 8559.33 | -0.44% | | COMEX黄金 | 3376.50 | 9-1.35% | | WTI原油 | 58.07 | -1.73% | | 美元指数 | 99.87 | -0.01% | | 美元离岸人民币 | 7.23 | 0.01% | | | 注:美元指数、汇率为最新价,数据截至北京时间6:30,其它为收盘价 制图:21投资通 | | 重磅资讯①美联储维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变 据新华 ...

5月7日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 720.05人民币 100欧元 816.5人民币 100日元 5.0345人民币 100港元 92.891人民币 100英镑 961.53人民币 100澳元 468.76人民币 100新西兰元 433.58人民币 100新加坡元 559.08人民币 100瑞士法郎 871.96人民币 100加元 523.27人民币 100人民币110.94澳门元 100人民币58.649马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1129.36俄罗斯卢布 100人民币252.89南非兰特 100人民币19281韩元 100人民币51.002阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币52.071沙特里亚尔 100人民币4948.69匈牙利福林 100人民币52.33波兰兹罗提 100人民币91.37丹麦克朗 100人民币132.74瑞典克朗 100人民币142.51挪威克朗 100人民币536.219土耳其里拉 100人民币272.68墨西哥比索 100人民币453.13泰铢（完） 本文转自【新华社】 新华社北京5月7日电 中国外汇交易中心5月7日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、澳 元、新西兰元、新加 ...

2025年5月7日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.2005，下调（人民币升值）3点； 欧元/人民币报8.1650，上调115点； 港元/人民币报0.92891，下调1.2点； 英镑/人民币报9.6153，上调345点； 澳元/人民币报4.6876，上调259点； 加元/人民币报5.2327，上调125点； 100日元/人民币报5.0345，上调76点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.2936，上调1230点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3358，上调324点； 人民币/林吉特报0.58649，上调34.3点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7196，下调468点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5908，上调36点。 ...

中信证券研报认为，近期，人民币汇率的快速拉升或与美元指数偏弱运行、消息面驱动市场对于中美谈 判预期的升温等有关。后续来看，人民币汇率的扰动和支撑因素相对均衡，人民币汇率短期或围绕新中 枢双向波动，央行汇率政策更多侧重于纠偏单边预期。其中，压力主要来自美国对华加征关税对我国出 口基本面的冲击逐步凸显，并导致经常账户顺差有所收窄以及直接投资和证券投资账户的波动，但对于 人民币汇率更为重要的是国内对冲政策的力度和中美经贸磋商的进度。支撑因素中，一是美国经济数据 持续走弱预期下，美元指数或偏弱运行，人民币汇率的被动贬值压力有所缓和；二是全球投资者对于非 美货币以及非美资产的需求边际抬升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by external factors, including a weak US dollar index and heightened market expectations for US-China trade negotiations [1][2][4]. Group 1: External Factors Influencing RMB Exchange Rate - The US "reciprocal tariff" policy has raised concerns about the US economic fundamentals and inflation, leading to a decline in trust among foreign investors in dollar-denominated assets, resulting in a 4.37% drop in the dollar index in April [2]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar against the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar triggering a strong exchange guarantee reflect an initial increase in demand for non-USD currencies and assets [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's evaluation of the possibility of restarting trade negotiations with the US has contributed to the rise in expectations for US-China talks, supporting the offshore RMB exchange rate [2]. Group 2: Domestic Factors and Policy Implications - The pressure on the RMB exchange rate is expected to increase due to the gradual impact of US tariffs on China's export fundamentals, leading to a narrowing of the current account surplus [3][4]. - Domestic policies and the basic economic situation are expected to play a stabilizing role for the exchange rate, with a relatively restrained use of exchange rate stabilization tools in April [2][3]. - The potential for a temporary appreciation of the RMB may trigger some demand for currency settlement, which could further increase volatility in the RMB exchange rate [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The balance of pressure and support factors for the RMB exchange rate appears relatively even, with expectations of short-term fluctuations around a new equilibrium [1][4]. - The weakening of the US economy is expected to continue, which may lead to a sustained weak dollar index, alleviating some depreciation pressure on the RMB [5]. - The demand for non-USD currencies and assets is expected to increase marginally, providing additional support for the RMB [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is driven by a weaker USD and a thawing in China-US trade relations, with future focus on tariff negotiations and US economic data impacting the USD index [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown a "short-term rapid appreciation," influenced by the weakening of the USD and narrowing China-US interest rate differentials [1] - The relationship between the RMB exchange rate and both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is observed to be vaguely positively correlated, while the exchange rate is strongly correlated with the China-US interest rate differential [1] - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB has contributed to the recovery of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but technical analysis suggests that the rapid appreciation phase has ended, leading to potential fluctuations [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis Insights - From a technical perspective, the RMB exchange rate is currently in a phase of oscillation after the rapid appreciation, which may cause disturbances in market trends [1] - The analysis indicates that if the RMB rebounds to certain levels, it may signal further downward movement, while a return to specific thresholds could indicate reduced downward space [1][23] - The PCR indicator, which tracks short-term market timing, has shown a slight increase, indicating a high-risk zone, suggesting that if it remains elevated, a market adjustment may be imminent [1]

宏观策略周论："对等关税"以来的输家和赢家 20250506 摘要 • 对等关税后，全球资产表现分化，避险资产如黄金、比特币震荡上行；美 国资产替代需求增加，资金流向欧洲、日本，新兴市场内部资金腾挪，中 国市场（尤其是港股）相对落后。 • 尽管五一假期期间美股未大幅下跌，但内需板块相对泡沫化，外需板块受 关税拖累。美国能源、运输业和中国互联网、软件、非银金融、银行业受 影响较大。 • 中国房地产脱困可借鉴国际经验，如日本长期低息贷款和城市规划，生育 支持政策可参考日韩经验，提供经济补贴、完善育儿设施，刺激内需，提 高出生率。 • 美国股市、债市、汇率三杀，资金流出美国，可能回流港股或欧洲，但新 兴市场风险较高，关税不确定性犹存，外资对美国存量资金影响有限。 • 美联储降息预期推迟至 7 月，美债利率交易在 3.8%左右，下行受限。二 季度美国经济面临关税谈判、减税和汇率变化三大关键因素。 • 港股市场宜采取低迷时积极介入、亢奋时适度获利的策略。行业配置应考 虑成长与防御、外需与内需两条线，并结合宏观经济影响进行细致分析。 • 人民币汇率韧性超出预期，并非完全由基本面解释，伴随结构性或资金面 因素。中国央行可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by a combination of factors, including a softening stance from the US on tariff negotiations and proactive macroeconomic policies from China aimed at stabilizing the economy [1][2][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - On May 6, the onshore RMB rose significantly against the US dollar, reaching a high of 7.2105, the highest level since November of the previous year [1]. - During the May Day holiday, the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.9%, with notable increases of over 650 points on May 2 and again on May 5, peaking at 7.19 [1]. - The RMB's overall stability amidst global market fluctuations caused by US tariff policies indicates a resilient exchange rate [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Strength - The recent strength of the RMB is attributed to the US's willingness to engage in tariff negotiations, as indicated by statements from US officials, which has positively influenced the RMB's value [2]. - The Chinese government's commitment to implementing proactive macroeconomic policies, as discussed in the April 25 Politburo meeting, aims to stabilize employment and market expectations, further supporting the RMB [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - The future trajectory of the RMB will largely depend on the progress of US-China trade talks and the performance of the US dollar [4]. - The potential for a more flexible US stance on tariffs may reduce downward pressure on the RMB, suggesting that the most significant depreciation risks may have passed [4]. - The RMB is expected to exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern against the dollar, with relatively smaller volatility compared to other major currencies [4]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals Supporting RMB Stability - The foundation for maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate is strong, supported by positive domestic economic indicators and China's institutional advantages, including a large market and effective governance mechanisms [5]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system, aiming to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB [5].

数据截至5月6日19:53，图 / Wind 人民币汇率的强劲升值势头也提升了资本市场的活力。5月6日，A股呈现普涨格局，三大指数 均涨超1%，近5 0 0 0股飘红，两市成交额重返1 . 3万亿之上。 | 图 / Wind | | --- | 作 者丨林秋彤 编 辑丨包芳鸣 图源丨图虫 Wi n d 数 据 显 示 ， 离 岸 人 民 币 汇 率 自 5 月 1 日 收 于 7 . 2 7 7 3 后 连 续 走 强 ， 截 至 5 月 5 日 收 盘 已 升 至 7 . 2 0 0 6，当日盘中更是一度触及7 . 1 8 4 3的高点。"五一"期间，离岸人民币汇率一度升超8 0 0 点。 5月6日，人民币大幅拉升， 在岸人民币对美元日内一度涨近6 0 0点，创去年11月以来最高水 平， 收盘报7 . 2 1 6 9，日内上涨4 6 3点。离岸人民币汇率小幅回落，仍维持在7 . 2 0左右。在岸 人民币汇率自4月2 8日开始持续升值。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，4月2 5日中共中央政治局会议做出明确部署，要求"加强 超 常 规 逆 周 期 调 节 " " 要 加 紧 实 施 更 加 积 极 有 为 的 ...

近几日，人民币汇率表现亮眼。5月6日，人民币对美元中间价报7.2，较前一交易日上调6个基点。5月5 日，人民币对美元汇率依然走高。离岸人民币盘中一度升穿7.2关口，为去年11月以来首次，创近半年 以来新高。专家分析，近期人民币暴涨主要有两方面原因。第一是美方在关税问题上的态度有了变化； 第二是国内稳经济政策提供了关键支撑。未来汇率会怎么走？东方金诚研究发展部王青认为，主要有两 大关键：一是中美谈判进展；二是美元走势。未来人民币更可能出现一个与美元走势相反的双向波动过 程。不过别担心，这种波动幅度相对较小。而且相对于其它主要货币来说，人民币则要稳定得多。(国 是直通车) ...