Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures. It suggests that the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: on the supply - side, there is an expectation of old equipment renovation, with about 20% of urea equipment over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate above 80%, leaving little idle capacity; on the demand - side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October, considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations. Therefore, it is advisable to focus on the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Urea Price and Cost Data - **Futures Prices**: UR01 in Shanxi closed at 1737 yuan/ton with no change; UR05 was at 1779 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan (0.11%); UR09 was at 1707 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (0.23%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 1700 yuan/ton, 1710 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 79 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was - 42 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; the melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained at 5225 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Important Information The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1740 yuan/ton, the highest was 1763 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1733 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1737 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1745 yuan/ton, and the holding volume was 223,981 lots [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures, especially focusing on the 01 contract, based on the low valuation of urea and the expected upward drivers in the second half of the year [1].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the impact of exports on sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers have lowered prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and trading has improved. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is weak. The production of urea remains at a high level, and upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Although production may decline slightly next week due to planned maintenance, future supply - demand remains loose with the release of new production capacity. Coal - based urea profits are acceptable, and cost support is average. The export of urea continues in August, and port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market, and export dynamics need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 26, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1737 yuan/ton (- 8). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1710 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1710 yuan/ton (- 10). The basis in Shandong was - 37 yuan/ton (- 2), in Henan was - 27 yuan/ton (+ 8), and in Jiangsu was - 27 yuan/ton (- 2) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 26, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Planned maintenance at companies like Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an next week may lead to a slight decline in production, but new capacity will be released [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (- 10). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and cost support is average [1][2] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - The export profit was 1288 yuan/ton (+ 18). The Indian NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rates and Orders - As of August 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.84% (- 2.64%), and that of melamine was 46.60% (- 3.22%). The number of advance order days for urea enterprises was 6.06 days (- 0.23). Industrial demand is weak [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 26, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.39 million tons (+ 6.65), and the port sample inventory was 50.10 million tons (+ 3.70). Upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China. The futures price, which previously rose due to rumors of increased export expectations, has fallen as actual export demand has not improved significantly. The market is expected to remain volatile today, influenced by factors such as high domestic production and inventory, weak domestic demand, and strong international prices, with the export policy not being more relaxed than expected [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been oscillating downward recently. The previous rise in futures prices due to rumors of improved China - India relations and increased export expectations did not materialize in actual export demand, leading to a decline in market sentiment. Current daily production and operating rates are high, and inventory is at a high level overall. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly. Although export profits have declined, they remain strong, and the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 73, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 143.7 million tons (-2.0), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, but the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. With the domestic supply still significantly exceeding demand, the UR is expected to oscillate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: International prices are strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Operating rates and daily production are at high levels, and domestic demand is weak [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand are the main influencing factors [5]. Market Data - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 1737 (-8), the price of the 05 contract is 1777 (-12), and the price of the 09 contract is 1703 (-11). The basis of the UR01 contract is 73 (up 8) [6]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 143.7 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 89.6 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 54.1 million tons, all unchanged [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown varying degrees of change. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Urea is currently in a weak consolidation phase with no immediate market drivers The previous export positive factors have been digested Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent Indian tender price exceeds market expectations In the short - term, consider short - selling on rebounds Later, autumn fertilizer preparation and off - season storage will support the market, and there is also potential for Northeast fertilizer preparation to start, so the downside space is relatively limited [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures and spot markets of urea are both weak After upstream factories cut prices to attract orders, the market trading atmosphere did not improve significantly The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1640 to 1690 yuan/ton [1][7] - Fundamentally, there is no significant fluctuation The daily production is maintained at around 190,000 tons This week, Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Lu'an have maintenance plans, and the weekly output is expected to decrease compared to last week [1] - On the demand side, industrial demand has some resilience The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has reached a high level in the same period of history, with limited room for further increase Recently, affected by environmental protection restrictions for the military parade, compound fertilizer factories have limited production, and the operating load has slightly decreased [1] - The finished product inventory has been at a high level in the past five years for the past two months It is not yet the high - demand period for autumn fertilizers, so there is no pressure for centralized fertilizer preparation Other industrial demands are also affected by environmental protection restrictions and have reduced or stopped production [1] - Urea inventory is accumulating and is currently at a high level in the past five years A large amount of inventory restricts the upward space of the market, and there is a large amount of marketable supply [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1741 yuan/ton, fluctuated downward during the day, and finally closed at 1737 yuan/ton, down 0.52% The trading volume was 219,820 lots, a decrease of 3120 lots [2] - In the top twenty positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 871 lots, and short positions decreased by 3230 lots Among them, Yong'an Futures' net long positions decreased by 1232 lots, Galaxy Futures' net long positions increased by 786 lots; CITIC Futures' net short positions decreased by 2257 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' net short positions decreased by 1516 lots [2] - On August 26, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5123, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - Spot: The futures and spot markets are both weak After upstream factories cut prices to attract orders, the market trading atmosphere did not improve significantly The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1640 to 1690 yuan/ton [1][7] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation is stable today, while the futures closing price has decreased Based on the Henan region, the basis has strengthened compared to the previous trading day The basis of the January contract is - 27 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton [10] - Supply data: On August 26, 2025, the national daily urea production was 194,700 tons, unchanged from yesterday The operating rate was 82.55% [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, go for reverse hedging on 01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the impact of export sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers are reducing prices to attract orders, but downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and there has been an improvement in trading. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high compared to the same period. Although some companies are expected to undergo maintenance next week and production may decline slightly, with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea production is okay, and the cost - side support is average. The export of urea is ongoing, and the port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 25, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1745 yuan/ton (+6). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1710 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton (-40), and in Jiangsu was 1710 yuan/ton (-30). The basis in Shandong was - 45 yuan/ton (-46), in Henan was - 35 yuan/ton (-46), and in Jiangsu was - 35 yuan/ton (-36) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 25, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Next week, Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an are expected to undergo maintenance, and production may decline slightly. However, with the release of new production capacity, future urea supply - demand remains relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 25, 2025, the urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (-40). The coal - based urea profit is okay, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of August 25, 2025, the export profit was 1270 yuan/ton (+1). August is the export window period, urea export is ongoing, and the port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 25, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.84% (-2.64%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 46.60% (-3.22%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.06 days (-0.23). The downstream industrial demand is weak, and there is still resistance to high - priced goods [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.39 million tons (+6.65), and the port sample inventory was 50.10 million tons (+3.70). The upstream inventory is still relatively high compared to the same period [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China. The futures price, which previously rose due to rumors of increased export demand, has fallen as actual exports have not improved significantly. The report expects the UR contract to fluctuate today, considering factors such as high domestic supply, weak demand, strong international prices, and un - liberalized export policies [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has oscillated downward recently. Rumors of improved Sino - Indian relations and increased export demand led to a price increase, but actual exports have not improved. Current daily production and operating rates are high, and inventory is at a high level. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply in the domestic urea market far exceeds demand, and although export profits have declined, they remain strong while export policies have not been liberalized as expected. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis for the UR2601 contract is 65, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.6%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.437 million tons (- 20,000 tons), suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is a bearish sign [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, also a bearish indicator [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to oscillate. International urea prices are strong, but export policies have not been liberalized as expected. With a significant domestic supply - demand imbalance, the UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Bullish factors include strong international prices, while bearish factors are high production and weak domestic demand. The main logic is based on international prices and changes in domestic demand, and the main risk is changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The spot prices of the deliverable product and Shandong urea are 1810, with no change; the Henan spot price is 1810, up 25; the FOB China price is 3117 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the UR01 contract is 1745, up 6; the UR05 contract is 1789, up 7; the UR09 contract is 1714, down 1. The basis of the UR01 contract is 65, up 4 [6]. | | **Inventory** | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.437 million tons (- 20,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 896,000 tons (- 72,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 541,000 tons (+ 25,000 tons). The number of warehouse receipts is 5123, an increase of 1050 [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Relevant Data | | --- | --- | | **2018 - 2024** | From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% - 15.5%. Production and apparent consumption have also generally increased over the years, and the import dependence has varied between 8.4% - 19.3%. The ending inventory and actual consumption have also shown corresponding changes [10]. | | **2025E** | The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0%, but other data is not provided [10]. |

Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market is experiencing a slight decline, influenced by market sentiment and export factors [1][2][3] - Domestic demand for urea is weak due to the agricultural off-season and reduced production of compound fertilizers [1][2][3] - Export activities are ongoing, contributing to increased port inventories and affecting the overall supply-demand balance [2][3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movement - Urea futures main contract showed a minor decline of 0.17%, closing at 1745.00 yuan, with a low of 1735.00 yuan during the trading session [1] - Market sentiment and export news have significantly impacted the urea price trend, leading to a continuous drop in the market [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The agricultural demand for urea is currently in a low season, and the production of compound fertilizers is not providing substantial support to urea prices [1][2] - Port inventories have increased slightly, with upstream urea enterprises continuing to accumulate stock [3] - The overall domestic demand for urea lacks support, with the main variable being export activities [2][3] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - The price of urea is expected to maintain a range-bound movement until substantial positive factors emerge [2] - The lower price space for urea is considered limited due to rising coal prices and low production profits [2] - Short-term forecasts suggest a weak oscillation in the urea market, with support levels identified between 1700-1730 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the urea industry is bearish [1] Report's Core View - The urea futures market showed a downward trend on August 22, 2025, with a cold trading atmosphere. The fundamentals had no significant fluctuations, and short - term bearish sentiment prevailed due to insufficient domestic demand and high inventory levels [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 22, 2025, with a cold trading atmosphere. Spot prices mostly stabilized, and some regions slightly lowered prices. The daily output remained around 190,000 tons, with a narrow - range fluctuation. Domestic demand was insufficient, and the inventory of urea factories was at a five - year high, restricting price increases. The participation in the Indian tender was unclear, and the market sentiment was cautious. The short - term outlook was bearish [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1767 yuan/ton, closed at 1739 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.92%. The trading volume was 209,301 lots, an increase of 3584 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 4237 lots, and short positions increased by 4251 lots [2] - Spot: The futures market declined continuously, and the trading atmosphere was cold. Spot prices mostly stabilized, and some regions slightly lowered prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1720 - 1740 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipt Data - On August 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4073, an increase of 500 compared to the previous trading day, with 500 additional receipts from Jilin Yuyuan [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market's mainstream quotation decreased, and the futures closing price dropped. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [9] - Supply: On August 22, 2025, the national daily urea output was 189,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.81% [11]

一德期货：短期尿素01暂看1740-1800区间，1-5反套 中金财富期货 内盘尿素价格具备一定上涨空间 一德期货 短期尿素01暂看1740-1800区间，1-5反套 创元期货 尿素操作区间1650-1850 中金财富期货：内盘尿素价格具备一定上涨空间 目前来看，持续攀升的印标价格反映出海外尿素货源紧缺，理论测算出口利润丰厚，然而这一利好在短 期内难以兑现。参考历史经验，2023年三季度尿素供需紧张引发结构性行情，到年末国内尿素价格暴涨 至高位，致使承储企业亏损严重，全面放开印标有违稳供保价的宗旨。接下来，关注9月中国尿素企业 可能向印度供货的情况，短期消息面对市场情绪扰动较大。我们认为，内盘尿素价格具备一定上涨空 间，但价格过高易触发管制措施，法检政策调整以官宣为准。 8月22日盘中，尿素期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1737.00元。截止发稿，尿素主力合约 报1742.00元，跌幅1.75%。 尿素期货主力跌近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 尿素主流现货1660-1740区间，收单一般；供应端，检修逐渐复产，日产19.27万吨，-0.25；需求端，复 合肥开工转下降 ...

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, go short on the 01 - 05 spread when it is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Recent export expectations have boosted the urea futures market, making it fluctuate on the strong side, and the spot price has followed suit. However, the new order transaction is average. There is still a large export space in July, and the subsequent implementation needs attention. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. Although some enterprises are under maintenance, with new capacity coming on - stream, the future urea supply - demand remains loose if the export does not exceed the 2023 level. The coal - based urea profit is okay, and the cost support is average. The Indian tender will affect the international market, and the export dynamics should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - As of August 22, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1764 yuan/ton (-12). The small - particle ex - factory prices in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1760 yuan/ton (0), 1760 yuan/ton (-10), and 1760 yuan/ton (-20) respectively. The Shandong basis was - 4 yuan/ton (+2), the Henan basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-8), and the Jiangsu basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-8) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of August 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Although Jiujiang Xinlianxin (520,000 - ton capacity) and Xinjiang Yihua (600,000 - ton capacity) started maintenance on August 20 for over 20 days, new capacity is being released [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 22, 2025, the urea production profit was 230 yuan/ton (-10), and the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of August 22, 2025, the export profit was 1249 yuan/ton (-42). In July, 570,000 tons of urea were exported, and there is still large export space. The Indian NFL issued a urea import tender, which will affect the international market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 22, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.84% (-2.64%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 46.60% (-3.22%); the urea enterprise advance order days were 6.06 days (-0.23). The downstream industrial demand is weak due to the military parade [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 22, 2025, the sample enterprise total inventory was 1.0239 million tons (+66,500), and the port sample inventory was 501,000 tons (+37,000). The upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year [1][2]