先锋期货期权日报 2025-7-1 平值期权隐含波动率反映了市场对该品种未来波动的预期，数值越大越可能有大行情 （趋势交易者可以关注排名靠前的品种）；标的 30 天历史波动率则反映了该品种过去实际 的行情大小，数值比前者小意味着期权价格可能偏贵（期权卖方可以关注与前者排名的差 异）；而标的当日真实波幅则反映了该品种当日日内行情的大小（日内交易者可以关注排名 靠前的品种）。 期市有风险,投资需谨慎 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下，我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下，我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the current spot gold price has reached a significant options betting range of 3331-3336, which is likely to attract substantial market attention [1] - The analysis shows that 53.08% of the orders are bullish, and the futures trading volume has increased, suggesting a short-term bullish sentiment in the market [1] - Further resistance levels to watch for short-term bullish indicators are identified between 3347.45 and 3351.29 [1]

金融期权 2025/07/01 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要： （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股高位盘整震荡，中小盘股和创业板股表现为震荡上行。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率均值较高水平水平波动。 （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建备兑策略和偏中性的双卖策略，垂直价差组合策略；对于 股指期权来说，适合构建偏中性的双卖策略和期权合成期货多头或空头与期货空头或多头做套利策略。 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 表3：期权因子—量仓PCR | 期权品种 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | 成交量 | 量PCR | 持仓量 | 仓PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei 225 index has confirmed a breakthrough above 40,000 points, creating a favorable dual scenario of "index rise and increased volatility," with options market sentiment shifting to support further short-term gains [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 30, Nomura Securities reported that the Nikkei 225 index has significantly risen over several trading days, reaching a new high for the year by surpassing 40,000 points [1]. - Historical data from Nomura indicates that after a sharp rise in call option skew, the index has averaged a gain of over 3% in subsequent trading days since 2010 [5]. Group 2: Options Market Sentiment - The call option skew has sharply increased, rising above the 95th percentile historically, indicating a strong foundation for further increases in the Nikkei 225 index in the short term [1]. - Nomura's analysis suggests that the current market structure and options flow provide strong technical support for the Japanese stock market, with a key resistance level at approximately 41,500 points [8]. Group 3: ETF Dividend Impact - Nomura expects that the upcoming ETF dividends, estimated at around 600 billion yen on July 8 and 900 billion yen on July 10, will not exert significant pressure on the market due to anticipated buying from CTA funds [9][10]. - The firm notes that investors are likely to remember last year's experience when ETF dividends did not catalyze selling pressure, and instead, the Nikkei 225 index reached new highs [9]. Group 4: CTA Fund Activity - Nomura estimates that CTA funds will net buy approximately 600 billion yen in Nikkei 225 index futures over the next four weeks, which could offset any selling pressure related to ETF dividends [10]. - The accumulation of long positions by CTA funds has been noted as a market-moving factor, particularly after the Nikkei 225 index surpassed 39,500 points [12].

Core Insights - T Company engages in sugar trading with a monthly trading volume of approximately 5,000 tons and employs a rigorous strategy for options hedging [1] - The company utilizes a dual selling strategy for sugar options, capitalizing on low volatility in the VIX index, which ranges from a high of 25.11 to a low of 7.98, with an average volatility of 17.13 [2][3] - The implementation of the dual selling strategy has increased trading opportunities from 6 to 12 times a year due to the introduction of series options [4][13] Trading Strategy - The dual selling strategy aims to profit from declining volatility and time decay, requiring the selling of a sufficiently large range to mitigate directional risk [4] - T Company has set a price fluctuation range of 1,000 CNY/ton to manage extreme market conditions [5] - The company selected strike prices of 5,500 CNY and 6,500 CNY based on a neutral Delta value to balance the options portfolio [8] Market Analysis - The VIX index indicates a stable market environment for sugar futures, which is characterized by narrow price fluctuations, making it an ideal target for options sellers [13] - The company anticipates that the sugar price will remain within the range of 5,500 to 6,500 CNY/ton over the next 14 trading days, allowing for strategic positioning [10] Financial Performance - By executing the dual selling strategy, T Company expects to achieve an annualized return of 14.88%, significantly exceeding its funding cost of 2.5% [11] - The strategy's effectiveness is enhanced by the faster time decay of series options compared to conventional options, allowing for quicker realization of profits [14]

Core Insights - The article highlights the innovative risk management approach adopted by downstream enterprises in the Xinjiang cotton industry through structured OTC options, specifically the cumulative purchase options used by processing company X to manage procurement costs effectively in a volatile market [1][15]. Industry Overview - The cotton industry faces structural challenges, with cotton being a core raw material for the textile industry. Price fluctuations significantly impact garment manufacturing, foreign trade exports, and agricultural planting. Recent geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather, and competition from alternative fibers have exacerbated market volatility, putting pressure on the stability of enterprises, particularly those in Xinjiang, which accounts for over 90% of China's cotton production [2][3]. - In 2024, domestic cotton prices exhibited notable "double high and double low" fluctuations, with prices for Xinjiang 3128B cotton ranging from 15,200 to 16,800 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase in price volatility of 1,600 yuan/ton [2]. - The industry is constrained by three major pressures: high costs, high inventory, and high import dependence, alongside two weaknesses: weak demand and weak profits. The cost of planting has risen due to a 12% increase in fertilizer and pesticide prices, with average costs exceeding 2,500 yuan per mu. Processing costs have also increased by 8% to 10% due to high energy prices [2][3][4][5]. Company Case Study - Company X, a processing enterprise in Xinjiang, relies on high-quality long-staple cotton for its core products. The company faces significant profit pressure due to rigid sales prices and elastic raw material costs, leading to gross margin fluctuations of 25% to 40% [6]. - To address procurement risks during price surges, X implemented a cumulative call option strategy, allowing for flexible and low-capital risk management. The option was designed to lock in procurement costs effectively [8][11]. - The cumulative call option was executed with an entry price of 13,490 yuan/ton and a daily contract volume of 30 tons over a 19-day observation period. The mechanism allowed for double contract volume if the settlement price fell below the trigger price [8][10]. Implementation and Results - Throughout the observation period, X closely monitored daily futures prices and flexibly triggered contract executions, ultimately securing procurement rights at a cost of 13,340 yuan/ton for 270 tons of CF505 futures contracts [11][12]. - The company successfully rolled over and adjusted its cumulative call option strategy, achieving an average procurement cost of 13,340 yuan/ton for a total of 2,520 tons, effectively smoothing the procurement cost curve [12][13]. - This case illustrates the effectiveness of customized OTC options in addressing the risk management challenges faced by the Xinjiang cotton industry, enhancing the ability of enterprises to hedge against market risks and stabilize operational profits [15].

证券代码：002472 证券简称：双环传动 公告编号：2025-039 浙江双环传动机械股份有限公司 本公司及监事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 《中国证券报》 《上海证券报》 《证券日报》披露的《关于注销 2022 年股票期权激励计划部分股票期权的公告》。 个行权期行权条件成就的议案》 一、监事会会议召开情况 浙江双环传动机械股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第七届监事会第六次 会议通知于 2025 年 6 月 23 日以邮件方式送达。会议于 2025 年 6 月 30 日以通讯 方式召开。会议应出席监事 5 名，亲自出席监事 5 名。本次会议由监事会主席杨 东坡主持，会议的召开程序符合《公司法》和《公司章程》有关规定。 二、监事会会议审议情况 表决结果：同意 5 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。 经审核，监事会认为：根据《上市公司股权激励管理办法》、公司《2022 年 股票期权激励计划（草案）》及《2022 年股票期权激励计划实施考核管理办法》 的相关规定，由于首次授予的 5 名激励对象已离职不再具备激励对象资格，以及 部分激励对象第三个行权期个人绩效考 ...

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证券代码：605117 证券简称：德业股份 公告编号：2025-064 宁波德业科技股份有限公司 关于 2022 年股票期权激励计划剩余预留授予部分 第二个行权期行权条件成就的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ? 股票期权拟行权数量：59.5007 万份 ? 行权股票来源：向激励对象定向发行本公司 A 股普通股 宁波德业科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 6 月 30 日召开 第三届董事会第十六次会议、第三届监事会第十四次会议，审议通过了《关于 案》。公司 2022 年股票期权激励计划剩余预留授予的股票期权第二个行权期行权 条件已经成就，现将相关事项公告如下： 一、2022 年股票期权激励计划批准及实施情况 （一）已履行的决策程序和信息披露情况 波德业科技股份有限公司2022年股票期权激励计划（草案）及其摘要》《宁波德 业科技股份有限公司2022年股票期权激励计划实施考核管理办法》《关于提请股 东大会授权董事会办理2022年股票期权激励计划相关事宜的议案》。公司独立董 ...

证券代码：605117 证券简称：德业股份 公告编号：2025-065 宁波德业科技股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 宁波德业科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 6 月 30 日召开 第三届董事会第十六次会议、第三届监事会第十四次会议，审议通过了《关于注 销部分股票期权的议案》。现将相关事项公告如下： 一、已履行的决策程序和信息披露情况 波德业科技股份有限公司2022年股票期权激励计划（草案）及其摘要》《宁波德 业科技股份有限公司2022年股票期权激励计划实施考核管理办法》《关于提请股 东大会授权董事会办理2022年股票期权激励计划相关事宜的议案》。公司独立董 事对此发表了独立意见。 同日，公司召开第二届监事会第十三次会议，审议通过了《宁波德业科技股 份有限公司2022年股票期权激励计划（草案）及其摘要》《宁波德业科技股份有 限公司2022年股票期权激励计划实施考核管理办法》《关于核实 <宁波德业科技> 股份有限公司2022年股票期权激励计划激励对象名单>的议案》。公司监事会 ...