新台币兑美元下跌0.3%至28.915。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Taiwanese dollar depreciated by 0.3% against the US dollar, reaching a rate of 28.915 [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate movement indicates a slight weakening of the Taiwanese dollar in the foreign exchange market [1]

港币流动性仍将维持相对充裕的状态，港股更重要的影响因素仍是基本面。 如上所述，当前短期 限美港利差仍然维持在3%-4%的高位，历史上看如此之高的美港利差很难持续，因此港币流动性 逐步被回收，Hibor利率逐步上行是应有之义。但同时在美元偏弱、南向流入和港股IPO大幅增加 的背景下，港币需求增加是确定性的，因此我们认为回收过后港币流动性仍将维持在较此前更为充 裕的状态下。港股最大的基本面是国内经济，从历史上看港股与国内经济指标的相关性远高于港币 利率，Hibor上升对港股的影响更多是情绪冲击。基本面上看，港股股东回报改善，具有全球竞争 力的优质公司供给增加，随着稳增长政策的进一步发力，我们仍坚定看好港股的中长期表现。 ▲向上滑动阅览 【免责声明】 本材料由上海重阳投资管理股份有限公司（简称"重阳投资"）原创并编辑发布，仅限于提供信息和投资者 教育的目的。本材料所依据信息和资料来源于公开渠道（例如：万得、彭博）和内部研究成果，相关信息 被认为是可靠的，但重阳投资不对其完整性或准确性作出任何明示或默示的陈述或保证。相关信息仅供参 考，不构成广告、销售要约，或交易任何证券、基金或投资产品的建议。本材料中引用的任何实体 ...

中枢筑牢，行情反复 华泰期货研究院 2025年07月04日 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率下行 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示出人民币的升值趋势，Put端波动率显著高于Call端。 ◆ 美元兑人民币期权波动率回落，市场对美元兑人民币未来波动性的预期减弱。 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 3 4 5 6 7 3M 2025/07/02 3M 2025/06/27 3M 2025/03/28 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2023-04 2023-10 2024-04 2024-10 2025-04 【量价观察】期限结构 20250701（%） 20250624（%） 20250603（%） 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 本周银行远期升贴水(-) 本周美中利差 0. ...

Group 1 - Japan's household spending data showed a surprising strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% in May, significantly exceeding market expectations, which has been a key factor in strengthening the yen [1][3] - The robust consumption data reflects the recovery momentum of the Japanese economy and provides important evidence for future adjustments in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy [1][3] - The strong consumer spending growth indicates an improvement in household income conditions, likely influenced by factors such as corporate wage increases and an improving job market [3] Group 2 - Following the release of the consumption data, the USD/JPY exchange rate experienced significant volatility, briefly breaking through the technical resistance area of 144.65-144.70 before encountering resistance near 145.25 [3][4] - The technical analysis indicates that short-term support levels for USD/JPY are concentrated around 144.20 and the 144.00 integer level, with potential further declines if these key supports are breached [4] - The U.S. labor market data, including a non-farm payroll increase of 147,000 in June, has also impacted the exchange rate, with a slower wage growth limiting the upside potential for the dollar [4]

美元兑日元日内下跌0.50%，现报144.19。 ...

美元兑日元USD/JPY日内下跌0.50%，现报144.19。 ...

美元兑日元跌0.5%报144.20。 ...

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 黄金跨市场价差多维透视之二 ──关税政策增添波动，跨市套利机会上升 商 品 期 报告导读 货 — 专 题 报 告 本篇为黄金跨市价差专题之二，主要研究分析了黄金跨市价差结构、形成 原因，以及未来发展的预期。分析表明，黄金跨市价差结构在上篇专题所 述因素之外，则主要来自于地区金价差异，其次也受到汇率预期变化的影 响。短期地区金价差异波动或仍将带动黄金跨市价差出现明显套利机会， 但是汇率预期当前机会则较小。未来可以继续关注美国关税预期变化对黄 金跨市价差的影响。 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 相关报告 投资要点 形成原因分析 黄金跨市价差主要收到地区影响和汇率影响。地区影 响主要受到地方政策变化，以及地区供求不平衡的影 响。汇率影响则主要是市场对汇率的预期变化。 风险提示 美国政府关税政策方向，市场汇率预期变化 http://www.cnzsqh.hk 1 ...

Group 1: Offshore Renminbi Market - In June, both offshore (CNH) and onshore (CNY) Renminbi appreciated against the US dollar, with CNH closing at 7.1575 and CNY at 7.1656, representing increases of 0.68% and 0.41% respectively compared to the previous month [3][4] - The average daily spread between CNY and CNH increased by 5 basis points to 66 basis points [3] - The CFETS Renminbi exchange rate index and indices based on BIS and SDR currency baskets decreased by 0.64%, 0.86%, and 0.86% respectively [3] Group 2: Offshore Renminbi Bond Market - In June, the offshore Renminbi bond market issued 100 bonds, an increase of 12 bonds from the previous month, with a total issuance amount of 779.71 billion, reflecting a 124.8% increase [5] Group 3: Offshore Renminbi Currency Market - As of the end of June, the CNH HIBOR rates for overnight, 7-day, 3-month, and 1-year were 1.9454%, 1.8341%, 1.9045%, and 1.9882% respectively, showing a mixed trend with overnight rates decreasing by 10 basis points while the others increased [6] - The average interest rate spread between offshore and onshore borrowing rates increased for overnight, 7-day, and 3-month terms, while the 1-year term remained unchanged [6] Group 4: Cross-Border Trade and Deposits - In May 2025, offshore Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong decreased by 5.4% to 9756.08 billion, while Taiwan saw a 4.2% increase to 1174.34 billion [2] - Cross-border trade settlement in Hong Kong amounted to 11235.7 billion, a decrease of 17.5% from the previous month [2] Group 5: Offshore Derivatives Market - In June, the 1-year CNH swap points rose by 99 basis points to -1746 basis points, while CNY swap points increased by 194 basis points to -1866 basis points [4] - The trading volume for USD/CNH futures contracts on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased by 14.68% to 2.527 million contracts, while the open interest decreased by 14.68% to 33,600 contracts [4]