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鲍威尔讲话偏鸽,利好金价
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 11:48
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3035632 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 9 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 贵金属 | 周报 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 · 2025 年 8 月 25 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 鲍威尔讲话偏鸽,利好金价 核心观点 北京时间 8 月 22 日 22:00,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会 议上发表讲话。其讲话被市场普遍解读为偏向"鸽派"。鲍威尔在杰 克逊霍尔的讲话标志着美联储在平衡"通胀上行"与"就业下行"两 大风险时,天平向担忧就业和经济增长倾斜。他不仅为近期降息铺平 了道路,也对美联储的货币政策 ...
美经济不及预期,金价强势运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 14:29
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 从业资格证号:F3035632 · 2025 年 8 月 11 日 贵金属周报 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 专业研究·创造价值 电话:0571-87006873 美经济不及预期,金价强势运行 核心观点 上周金价强势运行。周五夜盘纽约金冲高回落,主力期价由 3500 美元一线下挫至3450美元一线,沪金和伦敦金波动不大,纽约金和伦 敦金价差一度走阔至 100 美元。根据美国海关 7 月 31 日更新、8 月 8 日正式公布的文件显示,1 公斤规格和 100 盎司规格的金条被列入加 征关税类别。这导致纽约金行情异于伦敦金和沪金,可参考此前市场 预期美国加征铜关税,纽约铜行情明显异于伦铜和沪铜。短期纽约金 冲高回落,依 ...
黄金跨市场价差多维透视之二:关税政策增添波动,跨市套利机会上升
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold cross - market spread structure mainly comes from regional gold price differences and is also affected by exchange - rate expectation changes. Short - term fluctuations in regional gold price differences may still lead to obvious arbitrage opportunities in the gold cross - market spread, but the current opportunities from exchange - rate expectations are small. Future attention can be paid to the impact of changes in US tariff expectations on the gold cross - market spread [3][32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spread Market Tracking - Gold, as a global asset, should theoretically have convergent prices in various markets. However, due to exchange - rate fluctuations, tariff policies, transportation costs, and market liquidity differences, cross - market spreads persist. When the COMEX gold price is higher than the SHFE price, forward arbitrage can be carried out; when the domestic price is higher than the international price, reverse arbitrage can be carried out [10] - From January to April, the Sino - US gold spread (Shanghai gold price minus the converted New York gold price) had relatively stable fluctuations with an average of about - 1 yuan/gram, providing basically no obvious arbitrage space. Since May, the spread has fluctuated significantly, with the average rising to 10.2 yuan/gram, creating many opportunities for cross - market spread arbitrage [11] 2. Gold Cross - Market Spread Structure Analysis - The gold cross - market spread is mainly composed of two variables: the price changes of Shanghai gold and New York gold, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate [5][15] - Globally, gold prices generally fluctuate in the same direction. From 2014 - 2025, after removing outliers, the change in the gold cross - market spread was mainly affected by regional gold price fluctuations, with the exchange - rate impact accounting for an average of 11.4% and the gold - price impact accounting for an average of 87.9% [16] - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is one of the factors affecting the Sino - US gold spread, but its impact is relatively smaller than that of regional gold price changes. When the RMB appreciates against the US dollar, the gold spread widens; when the RMB depreciates, the spread narrows. However, arbitrage trading makes the gold cross - market spread tend to converge, and when the exchange rate fluctuates significantly, the impact of the gold price and the exchange rate on the spread is often opposite, offsetting each other [20] 3. Spread Formation Reason Analysis - Regional gold price differences may mainly come from regional policy changes or short - term supply - demand imbalances. For example, in early 2025, the expectation of the US to impose tariffs on imported gold led to a significant widening of the COMEX - London spot gold spread. In early 2020, the COVID - 19 pandemic also caused the Sino - US and Euro - US gold price spreads to widen. In the long term, the gold cross - market spread center may slowly rise [24][25] - Although the impact of exchange - rate changes on the gold cross - market spread is small, large exchange - rate changes can cause short - term spread fluctuations. The gold cross - market spread implies the market's expectation of the exchange rate. When the market has no obvious expectation of exchange - rate changes, the exchange - rate impact on the gold cross - market spread is weak. Currently, there is no obvious deviation between the exchange rate implied by the gold price and the actual offshore exchange rate, so it has little impact on the gold spread [28][29] 4. Gold Cross - Market Spread Summary - The report analyzes the gold cross - market spread structure, formation reasons, and future development expectations. The spread structure mainly comes from regional gold price differences and exchange - rate expectation changes. Short - term regional gold price differences may bring arbitrage opportunities, while current exchange - rate expectations offer few opportunities. Future attention can be paid to US tariff expectations [32]
金价涨0.5%
news flash· 2025-07-02 19:05
Core Insights - Spot gold increased by 0.5% during the day, reaching $3355.58 per ounce [1] - New York gold also saw a 0.5% rise, with a price of $3366.7 per ounce [1]
纽约金日内跌幅达2.0%,报3326.5美元/盎司。
news flash· 2025-06-24 12:21
Group 1 - The price of gold in New York experienced a decline of 2.0%, reaching $3326.5 per ounce [1]
油价金价,双双大涨!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-13 03:56
Group 1 - International oil prices and spot gold have surged significantly due to disturbances in the Middle East, with crude oil prices rising by 8% and spot gold reaching $3420 per ounce [1] - Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures both increased by over 8%, with WTI reaching a high of $74.35 per barrel, the highest since February 3, and Brent hitting $75.28 per barrel, the highest since April 2 [1] - Domestic energy futures opened sharply higher, with fuel and crude oil futures hitting the limit up, and low-sulfur fuel oil rising by over 8% [1] Group 2 - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on gold's future performance, citing uncertainties from tariffs and geopolitical factors that may drive safe-haven investments into gold, alongside ongoing central bank gold purchases and a long-term cycle of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - In contrast, analysts are cautious about oil prices in the second half of the year, noting that while recent market sentiment has improved, long-term oil prices are expected to trend downward due to rising downstream product inventories indicating short-term oversupply [3] - The geopolitical situation is likely to provide only temporary support for prices, with Brent crude expected to face resistance above $70 per barrel, lacking the momentum for a sustained breakthrough to new highs [3]
宝城期货:避险情绪降温,金价依然承压
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-06-12 01:23
Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since June, gold prices have shown a pattern of rising and then retreating, with a notable increase following President Trump's announcement to raise steel and aluminum tariffs, but subsequently declining [1] - From late April, gold prices have consistently retreated from a high of $3400 per ounce to below $3200 per ounce, while domestic gold prices fell from 800 yuan per gram to below 750 yuan per gram, indicating significant profit-taking by long positions [1][2] - The high retreat in gold prices is attributed to both substantial gains in April and a diminishing impact of U.S. tariff policies, leading to a higher market risk appetite [1] Group 2: Global Equity Market Recovery - Following the uncertainty post-Trump's inauguration, global equity markets experienced a downturn, while gold prices surged; however, since late April, gold prices have retreated as global equity markets began to recover [2] - The easing of expectations regarding U.S. tariff policies, particularly after the May 12 joint statement from the U.S., China, and Japan, contributed to the decline in gold prices back to pre-tariff levels [2] - Macro indicators show signs of economic recovery, with improvements in manufacturing PMIs in China and the Eurozone, suggesting a potential upward trend in global markets [2] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has significantly declined in June, primarily due to an increase in silver prices, indicating a decrease in market risk aversion [3] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a recovery in industrial demand, with notable increases in copper and crude oil prices as well [3] - Historically, significant increases in silver prices often occur in the latter stages of a gold price rally, typically following a crisis and coinciding with a recovery in industrial demand [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the long term, the trend for gold remains upward despite current pressures, influenced by trends of de-dollarization and weak performance of the U.S. dollar and bonds [4] - Short-term strategies should focus on market rhythm, as easing U.S. tariff impacts may lead to a continued decline in risk aversion, putting pressure on gold prices [4] - Silver, benefiting from its industrial applications, is expected to continue its upward trajectory in a recovering economy, especially as it breaks out of a year-long trading range [4]
资产配置日报:短债异动,重启买债了吗-20250604
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-04 15:33
Domestic Market Performance - The stock market continued its upward momentum with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 500 rising by 0.42%, 0.43%, and 0.28% respectively, while the technology sector's gains were in line with the overall market [2] - The bond market saw a decline in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds, which fell by 0.5 basis points and 0.6 basis points to 1.67% and 1.89% respectively [2] - The commodity market showed positive performance, particularly in coal, which rebounded by 7.19% due to production cuts and expectations of supply constraints [3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations slightly exceeded expectations, indicating a continued supportive stance on liquidity, with a net withdrawal of only 6 billion yuan [3] - The current market consensus suggests that the bond market risks are low, but a significant change would require the central bank to restart bond purchases [4] - The probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases in June is estimated at 50%, influenced by the need to alleviate banks' liability pressures [4] Equity Market Trends - The equity market is experiencing a rebound, with the total trading volume reaching 1.18 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [5] - The market is currently in a range-bound trading pattern, with the Wande All A Index fluctuating within a 2% range since May 7 [5] - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 ETF has decreased from 18.21 at the end of April to 14.92, reflecting a lower expectation of future market volatility [5][7] Sector Performance - The small-cap stocks continue to perform well, with the CSI 2000 and Wande Micro Cap indices rising by 1.06% and 1.20% respectively, indicating strong interest in these segments [6] - The technology and consumer sectors are the main focus for capital allocation, with notable performances in areas such as AI and new consumption trends [6] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.60% and 0.57%, with new consumption and biotechnology being the primary drivers [6]
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250603
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 04:16
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2025 年 6 月 3 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 地缘政治和贸易政策均升温 | | 镍 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 上游强势,下游弱势,镍弱势运行 | 参考观点:短线看强 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种:黄金(AU) 日内观点:上涨 中期观点:震荡 核心逻辑:端午节期间,美国贸易政策和全球地缘政治风险再度升温。贸易政策方面: 5 月 30 日特 朗普 ...
刚刚,A50直线跳水!4连板牛股,“天地板”
Group 1 - A-shares experienced a pullback on Friday, with all three major indices turning negative, and the ChiNext index dropping over 1% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also reversed its earlier gains, which had exceeded 1% [1] - A50 futures index saw a sharp decline, reporting a drop of 0.75% [3] Group 2 - Government bond futures turned upward across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.06%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.06%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.04% [5] - Gold prices surged, with New York gold futures rising by over 1%, while A-share gold stocks rallied, with Western Gold hitting the limit up, and other stocks like Xiaocheng Technology, Mankalon, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold also seeing gains [5] Group 3 - U.S. President Trump urged the EU to reduce tariffs, warning of more tariffs if they do not comply [7] - Japanese Prime Minister discussed U.S. tariff measures with Trump, maintaining a stance on the removal of tariffs, and also addressed diplomatic and security issues [7] Group 4 - A significant policy briefing is scheduled for next Tuesday, where officials will discuss reforms and innovations in national-level economic and technological development zones [8]