Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the ongoing geopolitical tensions have created a complex environment for gold prices, with domestic markets showing stronger performance compared to international counterparts due to local demand and currency stability [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and announced a halt to balance sheet reduction, which theoretically benefits non-yielding assets like gold [3]. - The mixed signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding future rate cuts have led to fluctuating market expectations, creating both upward and downward pressures on gold prices [3]. - The U.S. dollar index slightly decreased by 0.01% to 99.5328, providing some support for gold prices, although the dollar remains in a range-bound pattern [3]. Group 2: Domestic vs. International Markets - Domestic gold prices have shown significant gains, with Shanghai gold futures rising to 919.86 CNY per gram, a 1.05% increase, driven by stable RMB exchange rates and local demand [1][3]. - In contrast, international gold markets are experiencing a more subdued performance due to the lack of a clear downward trend in the dollar and ongoing uncertainty in economic indicators [3]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Global gold investment demand surged by 47% year-on-year in Q3, as reported by the World Gold Council, providing strong support for gold prices amid rising geopolitical risks [3]. - Despite a five-day outflow of funds from global gold ETFs, domestic investors are taking advantage of market volatility to enter positions [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels for Shanghai gold futures are identified between 951 CNY and 1000 CNY per gram, while support levels are between 894 CNY and 950 CNY [4]. - The core trading range for Shanghai gold is expected to be between 910 CNY and 925 CNY, with a critical support level at 915 CNY [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of geopolitical tensions has led to a decline in gold prices, with both New York and London gold prices falling below the $4000 per ounce mark, closing at $3991.10 per ounce on COMEX, despite a significant increase in gold ETFs and gold stock ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a drop of 1.95% due to the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which reduced geopolitical risk [1] - The gold ETFs, specifically 华夏 (518850), rose by 4.53%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 8.95% [1] Group 2: Price Trends - During the recent National Day holiday, international gold prices saw a continuous rise, surpassing the $4000 per ounce psychological threshold, with a holiday increase of over 4% and a year-to-date increase exceeding 50% [1] Group 3: Driving Factors - The strong performance of gold prices is attributed to three main driving factors: 1. A surge in safe-haven demand due to government shutdowns and geopolitical conflicts 2. Expectations regarding monetary policy, including interest rate cuts and concerns over the credibility of the US dollar 3. Structural inflows from central banks and ETFs, continuing the global trend of net gold purchases by central banks [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Market participants are advised to closely monitor the ongoing battle around the $4000 per ounce level for overseas gold prices, which corresponds to a key domestic level of 900 yuan [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Author: Long Aoming from Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. The price of New York gold rose from $3,700 to $3,800, and the corresponding main contract price of Shanghai gold futures rose from 830 yuan to 860 yuan. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to geopolitical tensions. The U.S. continuously pressuring Russia accelerated the upward movement of the gold price. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the gold price has been on an upward trend, breaking through the oscillation range since the second quarter with an accelerating upward momentum. After a short - term correction around the Fed's interest - rate meeting on September 18, the gold price reached a new high, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. With China approaching the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, attention should be paid to overseas market fluctuations [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report provides a graph showing the relationship between the COMEX gold futures closing price and the U.S. dollar index, but no specific textual description of the weekly trend other than the price changes of gold is given [7]. 3.1.2 Index Percentage Changes | Index | September 26 | September 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,789.80 | $3,719.40 | 1.89% | | COMEX Silver | $46.37 | $43.37 | 6.92% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 856.06 yuan | 830.56 yuan | 3.07% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 10,632.00 yuan | 9,971.00 yuan | 6.63% | | U.S. Dollar Index | 98.20 | 97.65 | 0.56% | | U.S. Dollar against Off - shore RMB | 7.14 | 7.12 | 0.32% | | 10 - year U.S. Treasury Real Yield | 1.82 | 1.75 | 0.07 | | S&P 500 | 6,643.70 | 6,664.36 | - 0.31% | | U.S. Crude Oil Continuous | $65.19 | $62.72 | 3.94% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 81.74 | 85.77 | - 4.70% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 80.52 | 83.30 | - 3.34% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,005.72 | 994.56 | 11.16 | | iShare Gold ETF | 478.90 | 474.47 | 4.43 | [8] 3.2 Accelerated Upward Movement of Gold Price - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, which increased market risk - aversion demand. The decline of the U.S. stock market last week reduced market risk appetite, increased risk - aversion demand, and was favorable for the gold price [10][12]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to September 23 data, compared with the previous week, long positions changed by 6,030 contracts, short positions changed by 5,691 contracts, and net long positions changed by 339 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious - metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. Last week, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly. Both gold and silver rose significantly last week, with silver rising sharply, and the gold - silver ratio declined rapidly. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded significantly last week, and the 10 - 2 yield spread widened. With the start of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the market's expectation for the U.S. economy improved [14][16][19] 3.4 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the short - term and medium - to - long - term trends of the gold price and reminding of overseas market fluctuations during the holiday [25]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points has significant implications for the gold market, leading to a notable drop in gold prices shortly after the announcement [1][13]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The spot price of London gold reached a historic high of over $3700 per ounce on September 17, prior to the Fed's announcement [2]. - The three main factors influencing gold prices are: 1) hedging against the dollar's credit system, 2) the global central bank gold purchasing trend, and 3) the accumulation of risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions and economic instability [3][21][30]. - The recent rise in gold prices from late August to mid-September was primarily driven by market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut [10][11]. Group 2: Interest Rate Impact - A reduction in interest rates decreases the attractiveness of the dollar, leading to a decline in global capital inflow into dollar-denominated assets [6][7]. - The market had already priced in the 25 basis point cut, resulting in a normal price correction for gold following the announcement [13][14]. Group 3: Central Bank Behavior - As of mid-September, global central bank reserves of gold surpassed those of U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, indicating a significant shift in asset allocation [25][26]. - The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold is a key driver of the current gold market dynamics [24]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Recent geopolitical events, such as conflicts in the Middle East and concerns over U.S. government shutdowns, have contributed to fluctuations in gold prices [17][18][27]. - The interplay between U.S. monetary policy and global economic conditions remains a critical factor in determining gold's future trajectory [22][32].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, with 11 out of 12 voting members supporting this decision [1] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management" move, balancing "sticky inflation" and "employment downside risks," asserting that political pressure does not influence decisions [1] - The updated dot plot indicates that most officials expect an additional 50 basis points cut in 2025 and a further 25 basis points in 2026, suggesting a long-term easing direction that supports precious metals [1] Group 2 - Following the rate cut, gold and silver prices initially surged but later retreated due to Powell's cautious remarks, with gold dropping to $3689.4 per ounce and silver to $41.79 per ounce [2] - The short-term pullback is attributed to the market having partially priced in the rate cut expectations and profit-taking by bulls, but the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact [2] - Key technical support levels to watch are $3550 per ounce for gold and $40 per ounce for silver; as long as prices remain above these levels, the short-term upward trend is expected to continue [2]

Group 1 - Recent economic data has been leaning dovish, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle, with significant signals from Powell and a historic downward revision of non-farm employment by 910,000 [1] - The expectation of rate cuts is enhancing the attractiveness of precious metals by suppressing the dollar and real interest rates, leading to a strong performance in silver, which has seen a notable increase due to both gold's rise and a correction in the gold-silver ratio [1] - As of September 12, gold futures rose by 0.58% to $3,694.8 per ounce, while silver increased by 1.37% to $42.730 per ounce, with domestic silver prices breaking the 10,000 yuan per kilogram mark, reaching a historical high [1] Group 2 - The latest data shows that the U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with core CPI at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflation without deterioration [2] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, signaling a slowdown in the labor market, which reinforces expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week and supports the potential for three cumulative cuts by year-end [2] - Treasury Secretary Becerra is engaging with potential Federal Reserve chair candidates and is advocating for a "organic" approach to reducing the balance sheet, aiming to carefully cut the Fed's substantial bond holdings and lessen economic intervention [2] Group 3 - Precious metals are expected to continue a volatile upward trend in the medium to long term, with short-term gold prices projected to fluctuate between $3,550 and $3,730 per ounce, corresponding to domestic gold prices between 790 and 845 yuan per gram [3] - Silver prices are closely monitored around the $43 per ounce resistance level, with a potential target of $45 per ounce if a breakthrough occurs, translating to approximately 10,150 yuan per kilogram domestically [3] - The suggested strategy is to gradually accumulate positions on dips in the market [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations after reaching new highs, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3602.40 per ounce, down 0.91% [1] - The recent ADP employment data for August showed an increase of 54,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, indicating potential economic weakness [1] - The market is now pricing in nearly a 100% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, following an increase in initial jobless claims to 237,000, the highest since June [1] Group 2 - Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, indicated the need for a rate cut in the next meeting, suggesting multiple cuts could occur within the next 3 to 6 months [1] - Analysts from Baocun Futures noted an accelerating upward trend in gold prices, driven by increased safe-haven demand as equity markets show signs of weakness [1] - Technically, both New York and London gold have broken through the upper range of the consolidation seen since the second quarter, indicating strong upward momentum [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surpassed $3,500, driven by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, leading to a bullish trend in the gold market [1] - The article emphasizes that the recent price movements in gold are not indicative of a bearish trend, but rather a temporary pause in a long-term bull market [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is not expected to significantly impact gold prices, as employment data is just one of the indicators for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that the historical highs in London and New York gold prices do not reflect the returns for domestic gold holders, primarily due to currency fluctuations affecting profit margins [1] - It notes that the recent dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chief due to data falsification indicates underlying issues with employment figures, suggesting a weak job market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 22, 2025, at 22:00 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was generally interpreted as "dovish." His speech signaled that the Fed is more concerned about employment and economic growth when balancing the risks of "rising inflation" and "falling employment." It paved the way for a near - term interest rate cut and revised the Fed's monetary policy framework [3][23]. - After Powell's speech, the short - term interest rate cut expectation increased, which is positive for the gold price. However, the warming of market risk appetite is negative for the gold price. The market is still more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year. It is advisable to continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $3400 [3][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the dollar index linkage graph, but no specific text description of the weekly trend is provided [6]. 3.1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | August 22 | August 15 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,417.20 | $3,381.70 | 1.05% | | COMEX Silver | $38.88 | $38.02 | 2.26% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | $773.40 | $775.80 | - 0.31% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | $9,192.00 | $9,204.00 | - 0.13% | | Dollar Index | 97.72 | 97.85 | - 0.14% | | USD/CNH | 7.17 | 7.19 | - 0.24% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.85 | 1.95 | - 0.10 | | S&P 500 | 6,466.91 | 6,449.80 | 0.27% | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous | $63.77 | $63.14 | 1.00% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 87.89 | 88.95 | - 1.19% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 84.14 | 84.29 | - 0.18% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 956.77 | 965.37 | - 8.60 | | iShare Gold ETF | 451.68 | 453.29 | - 1.61 | [7] 3.2 Rising Interest Rate Cut Expectations Benefit Gold Prices - Last week, the gold price was under pressure due to the improving relations between the US and Russia, the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine war, and the improving global geopolitical situation. However, on Friday night, after Powell's dovish speech, the market's interest rate cut expectation increased, the dollar index plunged, and the gold price jumped [9]. - Last week, there was a divergence among US stock indices, with technology stocks represented by the Nasdaq generally correcting. But after Powell's dovish speech on Friday night, US stocks rose sharply again, and market risk appetite recovered [11]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to data on August 19, compared with the previous week, the long - position change was - 12,838 contracts, the short - position change was 4,057 contracts, and the net long - position change was - 16,895 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [13]. - Recently, the holdings of precious metal ETFs have decreased, especially gold ETFs. Last week, the gold price was weak, the silver price was strong, and the gold - silver ratio declined [15][18]. 3.4 Conclusion - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was dovish, increasing short - term interest rate cut expectations, which is positive for the gold price. However, the warming of market risk appetite is negative for the gold price. The market is still more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year. It is advisable to continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $3400 [23].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed strong performance. On Friday night, COMEX gold first soared and then declined, with the main contract price dropping from around $3,500 to around $3,450. The prices of SHFE gold and London gold had little fluctuation, and the price difference between COMEX gold and London gold once widened to $100. The new US tariff policy led to a different trend of COMEX gold compared to London gold and SHFE gold. The short - term COMEX gold remains in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper limit pressure of the range [3][24]. - The US economic data continued to be worse than expected last week, which may increase the expectation of a US economic recession and the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The US dollar index may weaken again, which is beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly [3][24]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the relationship between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price, but specific trend details are not elaborated [6]. 1.2 Index Changes | Index | August 8 | August 1 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,458.20 | $3,416.00 | 1.24% | | COMEX Silver | $38.51 | $37.11 | 3.79% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 787.80 | 770.72 | 2.22% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,278.00 | 8,918.00 | 4.04% | | US Dollar Index | 98.26 | 98.69 | - 0.43% | | USD/CNH | 7.19 | 7.19 | - 0.02% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.88 | 1.90 | - 0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,389.45 | 6,238.01 | 2.43% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $63.35 | $67.26 | - 5.81% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 89.80 | 92.06 | - 2.46% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 84.91 | 86.42 | - 1.75% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 959.64 | 953.08 | 6.56 | | iShare Gold ETF | 452.61 | 450.04 | 2.57 | [7] 2. Gold Price Fluctuation - The US economic data continued to be worse than expected last week, increasing the market's recession expectation and the Fed's rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index weakened again. The US stock market maintained a strong performance, with high market risk appetite, which put pressure on the gold price [9][11]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the non - commercial long net position of COMEX has continued to rise. As of August 5, the long position increased by 10,953 contracts, the short position decreased by 2,501 contracts, and the long net position increased by 13,454 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious metal price trend than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [13][14]. - Since late May, the gold ETF has started to climb. In early June, the silver price rose sharply, and the corresponding ETF positions increased significantly. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, the capital attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain a strong performance. Last week, silver first soared and then declined. As the gold price fell back, the gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly [16][18]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the short - term COMEX gold remains in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper limit pressure of the range. The US economic recession expectation and the Fed's rate - cut expectation may increase, which is beneficial to the gold price, and it is expected that the gold price will run strongly [24].