10月9日，受地缘冲突缓和影响，金价冲高回落，纽约金和伦敦金均跌破4000美元关口，截至收 盘，COMEX黄金期货跌1.95%报3991.10美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨 4.53%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨8.95%。 宝城期货分析指出，短期以色列与哈马斯达成停火协议，导致地缘政治紧张情绪迅速降温，叠加前 期已录得较大涨幅，短期多头了结意愿较强。今年国庆假期国际黄金价格持续上涨。纽约期金和伦敦金 突破4000美元/盎司关键心理关口，假期涨幅超4%，年内涨幅超50%。此番金价强势表现主要源于三大 驱动因素的共振：1.避险需求激增：政府停摆与地缘冲突主导；2.货币政策预期：降息交易与美元信用 受损；3.构性涌入：央行与ETF买盘共振全球央行净购金潮延续。技术上，持续关注海外金价4000美元 多空博弈，对应国内900元关口。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff ...

Report Overview - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Author: Long Aoming from Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. The price of New York gold rose from $3,700 to $3,800, and the corresponding main contract price of Shanghai gold futures rose from 830 yuan to 860 yuan. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to geopolitical tensions. The U.S. continuously pressuring Russia accelerated the upward movement of the gold price. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the gold price has been on an upward trend, breaking through the oscillation range since the second quarter with an accelerating upward momentum. After a short - term correction around the Fed's interest - rate meeting on September 18, the gold price reached a new high, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. With China approaching the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, attention should be paid to overseas market fluctuations [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report provides a graph showing the relationship between the COMEX gold futures closing price and the U.S. dollar index, but no specific textual description of the weekly trend other than the price changes of gold is given [7]. 3.1.2 Index Percentage Changes | Index | September 26 | September 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,789.80 | $3,719.40 | 1.89% | | COMEX Silver | $46.37 | $43.37 | 6.92% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 856.06 yuan | 830.56 yuan | 3.07% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 10,632.00 yuan | 9,971.00 yuan | 6.63% | | U.S. Dollar Index | 98.20 | 97.65 | 0.56% | | U.S. Dollar against Off - shore RMB | 7.14 | 7.12 | 0.32% | | 10 - year U.S. Treasury Real Yield | 1.82 | 1.75 | 0.07 | | S&P 500 | 6,643.70 | 6,664.36 | - 0.31% | | U.S. Crude Oil Continuous | $65.19 | $62.72 | 3.94% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 81.74 | 85.77 | - 4.70% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 80.52 | 83.30 | - 3.34% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,005.72 | 994.56 | 11.16 | | iShare Gold ETF | 478.90 | 474.47 | 4.43 | [8] 3.2 Accelerated Upward Movement of Gold Price - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, which increased market risk - aversion demand. The decline of the U.S. stock market last week reduced market risk appetite, increased risk - aversion demand, and was favorable for the gold price [10][12]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to September 23 data, compared with the previous week, long positions changed by 6,030 contracts, short positions changed by 5,691 contracts, and net long positions changed by 339 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious - metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. Last week, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly. Both gold and silver rose significantly last week, with silver rising sharply, and the gold - silver ratio declined rapidly. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded significantly last week, and the 10 - 2 yield spread widened. With the start of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the market's expectation for the U.S. economy improved [14][16][19] 3.4 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the short - term and medium - to - long - term trends of the gold price and reminding of overseas market fluctuations during the holiday [25]

各位小伙伴大家好，我是堂主。 如期而至的美联储降息来了。 9月18日凌晨，鲍师傅宣布美联储降息25个基点。 就在鲍师傅说了句下午好后，仅仅过了半小时，伦敦金现货大跌1个点。 有意思的是，在前一个交易日，也就是9月17日，伦敦金现货价格每盎司突破3700美元。 来到了历史性的高位。 今天就顺着美联储降息来给大家讲讲黄金的逻辑是什么？我会结合最近黄金价格走势来做解读。 那么6月7月8月都是有规律的走势，大体是上半个月或平稳或上涨一些，下半个月铁定下跌。 我把下跌区间标出来了，你会发现有一个共同点，就是美联储在6月7月8月，都没有降息。 哪怕懂王公开喊话，对鲍师傅不降息很不满意，但美联储一直不降息，鲍师傅头就是铁啊。 现在回答一下，降息为何利好黄金？ 作为从23年就开始在视频里讲黄金的博主，堂主长期都在关注黄金的趋势变化，不管是大涨还是大跌，我都一直有跟大家聊过黄金。 先来简单科普一下黄金的三个标的：伦敦金，纽约金，以及沪金。 伦敦金是现货，纽约金是期货，沪今就是我们这边的黄金期货。 那么这三个中，伦敦金是先行指标，其他两个一般是跟着伦敦金走的。 当然了，这更多是日内短线黄金交易才会关注，你们只需知道这三个标的是什 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, with 11 out of 12 voting members supporting this decision [1] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management" move, balancing "sticky inflation" and "employment downside risks," asserting that political pressure does not influence decisions [1] - The updated dot plot indicates that most officials expect an additional 50 basis points cut in 2025 and a further 25 basis points in 2026, suggesting a long-term easing direction that supports precious metals [1] Group 2 - Following the rate cut, gold and silver prices initially surged but later retreated due to Powell's cautious remarks, with gold dropping to $3689.4 per ounce and silver to $41.79 per ounce [2] - The short-term pullback is attributed to the market having partially priced in the rate cut expectations and profit-taking by bulls, but the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact [2] - Key technical support levels to watch are $3550 per ounce for gold and $40 per ounce for silver; as long as prices remain above these levels, the short-term upward trend is expected to continue [2]

Group 1 - Recent economic data has been leaning dovish, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle, with significant signals from Powell and a historic downward revision of non-farm employment by 910,000 [1] - The expectation of rate cuts is enhancing the attractiveness of precious metals by suppressing the dollar and real interest rates, leading to a strong performance in silver, which has seen a notable increase due to both gold's rise and a correction in the gold-silver ratio [1] - As of September 12, gold futures rose by 0.58% to $3,694.8 per ounce, while silver increased by 1.37% to $42.730 per ounce, with domestic silver prices breaking the 10,000 yuan per kilogram mark, reaching a historical high [1] Group 2 - The latest data shows that the U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with core CPI at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflation without deterioration [2] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, signaling a slowdown in the labor market, which reinforces expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week and supports the potential for three cumulative cuts by year-end [2] - Treasury Secretary Becerra is engaging with potential Federal Reserve chair candidates and is advocating for a "organic" approach to reducing the balance sheet, aiming to carefully cut the Fed's substantial bond holdings and lessen economic intervention [2] Group 3 - Precious metals are expected to continue a volatile upward trend in the medium to long term, with short-term gold prices projected to fluctuate between $3,550 and $3,730 per ounce, corresponding to domestic gold prices between 790 and 845 yuan per gram [3] - Silver prices are closely monitored around the $43 per ounce resistance level, with a potential target of $45 per ounce if a breakthrough occurs, translating to approximately 10,150 yuan per kilogram domestically [3] - The suggested strategy is to gradually accumulate positions on dips in the market [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations after reaching new highs, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3602.40 per ounce, down 0.91% [1] - The recent ADP employment data for August showed an increase of 54,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, indicating potential economic weakness [1] - The market is now pricing in nearly a 100% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, following an increase in initial jobless claims to 237,000, the highest since June [1] Group 2 - Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, indicated the need for a rate cut in the next meeting, suggesting multiple cuts could occur within the next 3 to 6 months [1] - Analysts from Baocun Futures noted an accelerating upward trend in gold prices, driven by increased safe-haven demand as equity markets show signs of weakness [1] - Technically, both New York and London gold have broken through the upper range of the consolidation seen since the second quarter, indicating strong upward momentum [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surpassed $3,500, driven by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, leading to a bullish trend in the gold market [1] - The article emphasizes that the recent price movements in gold are not indicative of a bearish trend, but rather a temporary pause in a long-term bull market [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is not expected to significantly impact gold prices, as employment data is just one of the indicators for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that the historical highs in London and New York gold prices do not reflect the returns for domestic gold holders, primarily due to currency fluctuations affecting profit margins [1] - It notes that the recent dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chief due to data falsification indicates underlying issues with employment figures, suggesting a weak job market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 22, 2025, at 22:00 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was generally interpreted as "dovish." His speech signaled that the Fed is more concerned about employment and economic growth when balancing the risks of "rising inflation" and "falling employment." It paved the way for a near - term interest rate cut and revised the Fed's monetary policy framework [3][23]. - After Powell's speech, the short - term interest rate cut expectation increased, which is positive for the gold price. However, the warming of market risk appetite is negative for the gold price. The market is still more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year. It is advisable to continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $3400 [3][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the dollar index linkage graph, but no specific text description of the weekly trend is provided [6]. 3.1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | August 22 | August 15 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,417.20 | $3,381.70 | 1.05% | | COMEX Silver | $38.88 | $38.02 | 2.26% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | $773.40 | $775.80 | - 0.31% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | $9,192.00 | $9,204.00 | - 0.13% | | Dollar Index | 97.72 | 97.85 | - 0.14% | | USD/CNH | 7.17 | 7.19 | - 0.24% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.85 | 1.95 | - 0.10 | | S&P 500 | 6,466.91 | 6,449.80 | 0.27% | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous | $63.77 | $63.14 | 1.00% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 87.89 | 88.95 | - 1.19% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 84.14 | 84.29 | - 0.18% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 956.77 | 965.37 | - 8.60 | | iShare Gold ETF | 451.68 | 453.29 | - 1.61 | [7] 3.2 Rising Interest Rate Cut Expectations Benefit Gold Prices - Last week, the gold price was under pressure due to the improving relations between the US and Russia, the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine war, and the improving global geopolitical situation. However, on Friday night, after Powell's dovish speech, the market's interest rate cut expectation increased, the dollar index plunged, and the gold price jumped [9]. - Last week, there was a divergence among US stock indices, with technology stocks represented by the Nasdaq generally correcting. But after Powell's dovish speech on Friday night, US stocks rose sharply again, and market risk appetite recovered [11]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to data on August 19, compared with the previous week, the long - position change was - 12,838 contracts, the short - position change was 4,057 contracts, and the net long - position change was - 16,895 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [13]. - Recently, the holdings of precious metal ETFs have decreased, especially gold ETFs. Last week, the gold price was weak, the silver price was strong, and the gold - silver ratio declined [15][18]. 3.4 Conclusion - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was dovish, increasing short - term interest rate cut expectations, which is positive for the gold price. However, the warming of market risk appetite is negative for the gold price. The market is still more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year. It is advisable to continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $3400 [23].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed strong performance. On Friday night, COMEX gold first soared and then declined, with the main contract price dropping from around $3,500 to around $3,450. The prices of SHFE gold and London gold had little fluctuation, and the price difference between COMEX gold and London gold once widened to $100. The new US tariff policy led to a different trend of COMEX gold compared to London gold and SHFE gold. The short - term COMEX gold remains in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper limit pressure of the range [3][24]. - The US economic data continued to be worse than expected last week, which may increase the expectation of a US economic recession and the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The US dollar index may weaken again, which is beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly [3][24]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the relationship between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price, but specific trend details are not elaborated [6]. 1.2 Index Changes | Index | August 8 | August 1 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,458.20 | $3,416.00 | 1.24% | | COMEX Silver | $38.51 | $37.11 | 3.79% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 787.80 | 770.72 | 2.22% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,278.00 | 8,918.00 | 4.04% | | US Dollar Index | 98.26 | 98.69 | - 0.43% | | USD/CNH | 7.19 | 7.19 | - 0.02% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.88 | 1.90 | - 0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,389.45 | 6,238.01 | 2.43% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $63.35 | $67.26 | - 5.81% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 89.80 | 92.06 | - 2.46% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 84.91 | 86.42 | - 1.75% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 959.64 | 953.08 | 6.56 | | iShare Gold ETF | 452.61 | 450.04 | 2.57 | [7] 2. Gold Price Fluctuation - The US economic data continued to be worse than expected last week, increasing the market's recession expectation and the Fed's rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index weakened again. The US stock market maintained a strong performance, with high market risk appetite, which put pressure on the gold price [9][11]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the non - commercial long net position of COMEX has continued to rise. As of August 5, the long position increased by 10,953 contracts, the short position decreased by 2,501 contracts, and the long net position increased by 13,454 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious metal price trend than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [13][14]. - Since late May, the gold ETF has started to climb. In early June, the silver price rose sharply, and the corresponding ETF positions increased significantly. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, the capital attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain a strong performance. Last week, silver first soared and then declined. As the gold price fell back, the gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly [16][18]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the short - term COMEX gold remains in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper limit pressure of the range. The US economic recession expectation and the Fed's rate - cut expectation may increase, which is beneficial to the gold price, and it is expected that the gold price will run strongly [24].

Group 1 - Spot gold experienced a daily decline of 0.5%, trading at $3319.67 per ounce, approaching the July 17 low of $3309.97 and the June 30 low of $3248.49 amid a tariff agreement between the US and EU [1] - New York gold also saw a daily drop of 0.5%, priced at $3375.5 per ounce [1]