Wind数据显示，截至2025年11月21日A股收盘，仅上海金飘红，上涨0.07%。 上海金 消息面上，当地时间11月20日下午，美国白宫证实，美政府高级官员近期与乌克兰方面举行了会晤，双方就一项"有望被俄乌双方接受的和平计划"展开讨 论。美国国务卿以及美国中东问题特使参与了此次会谈，强调"美国政府正与冲突双方就如何结束冲突进行积极且富有成效的对话"。 广发证券指出，前期中东局势缓和，吉隆坡经贸磋商取得积极成果，伴随美国政府结束停摆，后期公布的美国经济数据或影响12月降息概率及幅度，把握金 价的阶段性底部。反映中国黄金市场价格变动的上海金ETF(518600)近10个交易日有8天获资金净流入，累计达3.26亿元。 截至2025年11月21日A股收盘，有色金属回调5.26%，寒锐钴业、西藏珠峰跌幅居前。电力设备回调5.17%，天华新能、海科新源跌幅居前。 有色金属 中泰证券研报称，看好有色板块全面牛市行情。新能源需求虽增速下滑但占比持续上升，AI带来的电力需求同样有望提供增量，工业金属将迎来宏观+基本 面共振的时刻，看好铜铝商品价格持续上涨。股票维度虽股价基本都在新高位置，但更多因为商品价格的上涨以及公司成长性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced significant declines, dropping below key thresholds of $4000 and $3900 per ounce, with the lowest point reaching $3886 per ounce on October 28, 2023 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The recent drop in gold prices has led to increased buying activity in gold ETFs, with a net inflow exceeding 2 billion yuan in the past week alone [3][5]. - Despite the decline in gold prices, domestic gold ETFs have maintained a net inflow, with a total increase of approximately 8.65 million shares from October 20 to 28, 2023 [5][6]. - The total net inflow for gold ETFs over the past month has reached around 39.8 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest despite price volatility [5][6]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that many investors view the current price adjustment as an opportunity to "buy the dip," indicating a long-term bullish sentiment towards gold [7]. - The ongoing trends of "de-dollarization," central bank gold purchases, and inflation expectations due to U.S. debt expansion are expected to provide medium to long-term support for gold prices [7]. - The psychological impact of key price levels (e.g., $3000, $3500, $4000 per ounce) is significant, as these levels serve as technical and psychological anchors for investors [7]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The World Gold Council reported record inflows into physical gold ETFs, with a total of $26 billion in the third quarter of 2023, pushing total assets under management to a historic high of $472 billion [8]. - Current high implied volatility in gold options suggests a crowded market, prompting caution among investors regarding short-term risks [8]. - Research from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that gold's high volatility has negatively impacted its risk-reward ratio, recommending that investors wait for prices to stabilize around $3800 to $3900 per ounce before making new investments [9].

Core Insights - Shanghai's GDP for the first three quarters of 2023 reached 40,721.17 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5% at constant prices [1] - The financial sector in Shanghai has shown rapid growth, with key financial metrics indicating a robust expansion and solidifying its status as an international financial center [1][3] Financial Market Performance - The total transaction volume in Shanghai's major financial markets increased by 12.7% year-on-year [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange saw a significant increase in transaction volume, with a growth of 38.4% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange also reported transaction volume increases of 11.5% and 40.2%, respectively [1] Financial Sector Contribution - The financial sector's value added reached 6,965.27 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.8% [4] - The financial sector accounted for 17.1% of Shanghai's GDP, indicating its critical role in economic growth [4] - The growth rate of the financial sector outpaced the overall GDP growth by 4.3 percentage points, highlighting its importance as a driver of economic expansion [4] Banking Sector Dynamics - By the end of Q3, the total deposits of financial institutions in Shanghai reached 23.84 trillion yuan, with an 8.4% year-on-year increase [5] - The loan balance stood at 12.89 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.1% year-on-year growth, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than the national average [5] - The demand for credit in Shanghai's real economy remains strong, particularly in long-term loans for enterprises and households [5] Real Estate Market Trends - Recent policy adjustments have positively impacted the real estate market, with new home sales maintaining momentum and second-hand home transactions exceeding 15,000 units for 11 consecutive months [6] - The introduction of the "Shanghai Six" policies has notably increased activity in the outer ring new housing market [6] Securities and Insurance Sector Growth - The securities sector's value added is primarily driven by the growth in transaction volumes, with a remarkable 95.2% increase in trading volume in Q3 [6] - The insurance sector reported a 10.1% growth in original premium income, which is an improvement of 3.9 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [7] - Innovations in financial products and increased openness in the financial market are contributing to the sector's growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn after a period of record highs, with gold and silver prices plummeting to their largest daily declines in years, raising concerns among investors about future price movements [1][4][7]. Price Movements - Gold reached a historical intraday high before falling approximately 6.3% to around $4,082, marking its largest daily drop since April 2013, with a closing price of $4,130.41 per ounce [1]. - Silver also saw a dramatic decline, dropping nearly 8.7% to below $47.90, the largest intraday drop since February 2021, with a closing price of $48.7050 per ounce [4]. Market Influences - Multiple factors contributed to the pressure on precious metal prices, including expectations of easing trade tensions, a strengthening dollar, and overbought technical indicators, which diminished the safe-haven demand for these metals [7][10]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of critical positioning data, increasing uncertainty in the market and potentially allowing speculative long positions to accumulate excessively [10][12]. Technical Analysis - The relative strength index for gold indicated that prices had entered an overbought territory, prompting concerns about potential corrections and profit-taking among traders [8][11]. - Analysts noted that the absence of significant media catalysts on the day of the price drop suggested that the market was due for a correction due to extreme overbought conditions [11][12]. Investor Sentiment - Despite the sharp declines, some analysts believe that the fundamental factors supporting precious metals have not changed, and potential buying interest may limit the extent of any corrections [7][13]. - The recent lack of significant physical demand from India and the absence of key buyers in the Shanghai Gold Exchange were highlighted as notable factors contributing to the market's weakness [12][16]. Future Outlook - Analysts from various firms expressed differing views on the future of gold and silver prices, with some maintaining a bullish outlook while acknowledging the potential for a consolidation phase [10][13]. - The global largest gold ETF, GLD, saw unprecedented trading volumes, indicating heightened interest and activity in the market despite the recent downturn [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Shanghai is steadily advancing the construction of a global asset management center under the guidance of national financial management authorities, showcasing new achievements and effectiveness [2][4] - Shanghai's financial market scale is steadily expanding, with a total trading volume of 29.6783 trillion yuan from January to September this year, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [2] - The number of financial organizations is accelerating in Shanghai, with foreign banks, joint venture fund management companies, and foreign insurance companies headquartered in Shanghai accounting for about half of the total in the country [2] Group 2 - Financial reforms and opening-up are being comprehensively deepened, with mechanisms like "Bond Connect" being continuously improved to attract foreign investors to allocate RMB assets [2] - The financial legal environment is continuously optimized, with Shanghai being the first in the country to establish specialized institutions such as financial courts and arbitration courts [3] - The global wealth management forum highlighted the importance of Jing'an District as a key area for the construction of Shanghai's global asset management center, actively attracting quality financial institutions and building a financial development ecosystem [4]

更出人意料的是，这些资产不只是被冻结，西方政府还打算拿它们的利息给乌克兰搞重建。这相当于对一个主权国家说：你的钱，我们说了算。 本来，国际金融体系里有个"潜规则"叫国家财产豁免权，意思是主权国家的资产受保护，不轻易动用。但这次西方不按规矩出牌，把"规则"变成了"武器"。 全球不少国家看在眼里，心里咯噔一下：我的黄金放在你那，会不会哪天也被"冻结"？于是，一场安静却坚定的黄金"回家潮"启动了。 德国要求美联储对它的1200吨黄金进行重新审计；印度2024年一次性从英国运回了100吨黄金，这是1991年以来最大规模的回流动作； 匈牙利干脆清空了海外黄金储备；波兰则分批从海外运回8000根金条；土耳其和尼日利亚也在行动，把黄金从美国撤走。 2025年10月，国际金融圈传来一串沉重的脚步声。不是美元波动，也不是股市暴跌，而是黄金，一点点从西方流向东方。 德国、印度、波兰、匈牙利、尼日利亚，甚至连美盟体系内的国家，都开始悄悄把存在伦敦、纽约的黄金往中国运。这不是物流调度，也不是避税操作，而 是一次对信任体系的重估。 黄金往哪儿跑，钱就往哪儿靠。西方突然意识到，不对劲的不是金条的方向，而是几十年来他们赖以自信的金融中心地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Star Rating" and a "Golden Bull-Bear Signal Board" by the company, aimed at helping investors assess the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price and Historical Context - The price of gold is typically referred to in terms of Shanghai gold prices, which closely follow London gold prices, with differences mainly due to exchange rate fluctuations [7]. - Historical data shows that in October 2025, gold was rated at 1.0 star, while it reached over 4 stars during its lowest valuation in 2022. The period from 2011 to 2016 saw a prolonged bear market for gold, with a notable 5-star opportunity during that time [9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The three main factors affecting gold prices are: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly influences gold prices. A substantial decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to an increase in gold prices [12][13]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, the cost of gold mining is around $1500 per ounce, which has increased due to inflation and rising labor costs. If gold prices fall below mining costs, it presents a significant buying opportunity [18]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises can drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, often resulting in price increases during such times [19][20]. Group 3: Gold Volatility and Risk - Gold typically exhibits a volatility rate of around 34% and a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, which is comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock allocation. Generally, gold's risk level is slightly lower than that of average stock assets but higher than bond assets [22][25]. Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold. Gold funds usually yield slightly lower returns than physical gold due to management fees and cash reserves [31]. - The annualized return for Shanghai gold is approximately 7.71%, while the pure bond index is around 4.36% and the CSI All Share Index is about 8.04% [33]. - Physical gold can be purchased in various forms, including investment bars, panda coins, and jewelry, each with different pricing and investment characteristics [37][39][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rebounded after a correction last week, with an overall increase of 0.43%. Precious metals led the gains at 4.48%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 0.73%. Energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined by 0.06%, 1.23%, and 1.95% respectively. [2][7] - Due to uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate cut path and the non - realization of expected domestic interest - rate cut policies, short - term liquidity is disrupted, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2] - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may fluctuate; non - ferrous metals may remain stable; black commodities may fluctuate weakly; energy may fluctuate; chemical products face pressure; and agricultural products and oilseeds may fluctuate. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.43% last week. Precious metals led with a 4.48% increase, non - ferrous metals rose 0.73%, while energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined. [2][7] - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, fuel oil, and copper had the highest increases at 6.63%, 4.36%, and 3.28% respectively. Rapeseed meal, coking coal, and coke had the largest declines at 4.64%, 2.88%, and 2.65% respectively. [2][7] - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, especially for oilseeds. [2][7] - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased slightly, with net inflows in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. [2][7] 3.2 Outlook - **Precious Metals**: PCE data met expectations, reducing pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Uncertainties in interest - rate cut expectations may lead to short - term fluctuations. [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The stronger US dollar after the interest - rate meeting suppresses the sector, but domestic demand expectations and pre - holiday restocking support prices. The Grasberg copper mine accident affects supply and copper prices. The sector may remain stable in the short term. [3] - **Black Commodities**: Rebar demand improved, production stabilized, and inventory decreased. Steel mills have thin profits, and raw material supply is stable. The sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] - **Energy**: US inventory declines and geopolitical risks support oil prices. Geopolitical risks may rise around the National Day, but the rebound space is limited. The sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] - **Chemical Products**: Polyester sales increased, reducing inventory pressure, but inventory accumulation and low profits continue to pressure the industry. [4] - **Agricultural Products**: Argentina's agricultural policy changes and China's increased soybean purchases reduce the supply gap risk next year. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and the oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with a combined scale increase of 1.83% and a combined trading volume increase of 4.52%. [39] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.63% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.81% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.82% return, and the silver futures fund had a 5.72% return. [39]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant increase in gold ETF investments driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, emphasizing the long-term value of gold as an investment asset [1][10]. Group 1: Gold Price and ETF Performance - Shanghai gold reached a new high of 838.42 yuan per gram, with domestic gold ETF total assets reaching 155.67 billion yuan, a 120% increase from the end of last year [1][2]. - The performance of gold ETFs is closely linked to gold price movements, with COMEX gold prices rising over 10% in the past month, reaching 3,719.4 USD per ounce [2][3]. - Several gold ETFs, including the Yongying CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF and Huaxia CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF, saw net asset value increases exceeding 15% in the last month [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Weak U.S. economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts have made gold more attractive, with investors seeking to hedge against currency depreciation [3][4]. - The trend of de-dollarization and increased gold purchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, has provided strong support for gold prices [4][7]. - Strong performance in gold mining stocks, driven by rising gold prices and increased production, has attracted more capital into the gold market [4][5]. Group 3: Fund Flows in Gold ETFs - Since September, gold ETFs have seen a reversal from the net outflows experienced in August, with a total inflow of 4.774 billion yuan as of September 19 [5][6]. - The Yongying CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF had the largest net subscription, totaling 2.548 billion shares, followed by Huaxia and Huazhong ETFs [5][6]. - The overall fund flow in gold ETFs has been complex, influenced by market conditions, economic data, and policy expectations, with significant inflows observed earlier in the year [5][6]. Group 4: Global Gold ETF Holdings - Since 2025, the holdings of six major global gold ETFs have increased by 203.28 tons, with significant contributions from SPDR and iShares [7][10]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings reflects investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [7][10].

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 0.82% to $3694.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.15% to $41.99 per ounce [1] - Analysts suggest that the shift in major central banks' monetary policies may further weaken the dollar's attractiveness, potentially providing support for the precious metals market [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate significant inflows into U.S. gold ETFs, totaling approximately $367 billion, while Chinese gold ETFs saw outflows exceeding $26.5 billion, marking China as the only region with notable reductions [3] - Retail investors are marginally increasing their gold holdings, while institutions are reducing their positions, reflecting a divergence in sentiment [3] - Speculative net long positions in gold have rapidly decreased, indicating a weakening bullish sentiment among institutions [3] - Although COMEX gold and London spot gold prices have reached historical highs, Shanghai gold has not yet surpassed its previous peak, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm in China compared to other global regions [3] - Hong Kong has announced five measures to accelerate the establishment of an international gold trading market, aiming to expand gold storage and build a regional gold reserve hub with a target of over 2000 tons in three years [3]