Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is expected to run weakly in the short - term as producers in the origin regions are offering concessions [1]. - Soybean oil is expected to run relatively strongly among varieties due to low domestic inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: - Palm oil futures (domestic) closed at 8,068 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.79% decline and 7,980 yuan/ton at night with a - 1.09% decline. Trading volume was 740,461 lots, an increase of 120,687 lots, and open interest was 379,404 lots, an increase of 23,977 lots [2]. - Soybean oil futures closed at 7,722 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.23% increase and 7,684 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.49% decline. Trading volume was 343,658 lots, a decrease of 23,955 lots, and open interest was 576,914 lots, an increase of 16,888 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,280 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.64% increase and 9,273 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.08% decline. Trading volume was 462,792 lots, a decrease of 69,931 lots, and open interest was 292,872 lots, an increase of 769 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: - The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 932 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 428 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 1,212 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 346 yuan/ton. Palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 472 yuan/ton, soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 68 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil News**: - From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 9.11% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 7.69%, and oil extraction rate increased by 0.27% [3]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 20, 2025 were 709,397 tons, a 18.53% increase from the same period last month. SGS estimated exports at 572,729 tons, a 3.64% increase from the same period last month [5]. - Indonesia exported 2.02 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in March 2025, slightly down from 2.06 million tons in the previous month [5]. - In the first three quarters of the fiscal year, Pakistan's imports of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 116.37% and 23.42% respectively compared to the same period last year. From July 2024 to March 2025, Pakistan imported about 237,655 tons of soybean oil worth $251.137 million and over 2.489 million tons of palm oil worth $2.572 billion [5]. - **Soybean News**: - As of the week ending April 20, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than the market expectation of 7%, 2% in the previous week, 7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 5% [6]. - Argentina's estimated soybean planting area for the 2024/25 season is 17.9 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from last month's estimate but a 7.8% increase from the previous year. The estimated soybean production is 49 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the 2023/24 season. In March, Argentina exported 6,832.28 tons of soybeans, 477,495.66 tons of soybean oil, and 2,099,161.14 tons of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, indicating a weak trend. The trend intensity of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [7].

豆油：情绪反复，驱动偏少 2025 年 4 月 15 日 棕榈油：宏观影响减弱，震荡整理 | | | | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘） 8,748 | 涨跌幅 0.00% | 收盘价 （夜 盘） 8,750 | 涨跌幅 0.02% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,734 | 0.29% | 7,674 | -0.78% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,383 | 0.78% | 9,347 | -0.38% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,170 | -1.04% | 4,133 | -0.89% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美 分/磅 | 46.88 | -2.01% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 473,951 | -75,275 | 156,589 | -15,419 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 65,830 | -14,579 | 143,8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are oscillating and consolidating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's production forecast for South America in the 24/25 season is high, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low and demand is weak. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The deterioration of Sino - US relations and tariff issues affect the market [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in February, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is rated as neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8042, with a basis of 396, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On April 7, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 860,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. It is rated as bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is rated as bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is rated as bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil should be traded in the range of 7450 - 7850 for the Y2509 contract [2]. 3.2 Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is rated as neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9384, with a basis of 630, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: On April 7, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous value of 390,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is rated as bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil should be traded in the range of 8550 - 8950 for the Y2505 contract [3]. 3.3 Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is rated as neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9333, with a basis of 68, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On April 7, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous value of 630,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. It is rated as bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is rated as neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is rated as bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil should be traded in the range of 9000 - 9450 for the OI2505 contract [4]. 3.4 Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is currently the palm oil production reduction season [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].