证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-05-16投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8054，基差258，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月5日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关税导 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. After the oils oscillated higher, the upward momentum was insufficient. There was a significant reduction in positions in the external market, and the domestic market returned to fundamentals [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,048 yuan/ton, a decrease of 136 yuan or 1.66% compared to the previous period - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,796 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118 yuan or 1.49% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,296 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan or 1.50% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan or 1.27%, and the spot basis was P09 + 532 yuan, an increase of 26 yuan - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 1.09%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 354 yuan, an increase of 28 yuan - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan or 1.15%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 184 yuan, an increase of 32 yuan [1] Market News - Malaysian independent inspection agency Amspec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 were 514,713 tons, a 14.21% increase compared to the same period last month - Shipping survey agency ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 were 524,596 tons, a 6.63% increase compared to the same period last month - It is estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2024/25 season will reach 168.3418 million tons, an increase of 20.6205 million tons or 14% year - on - year, and an increase of 0.472 million tons or 0.3% month - on - month - The estimated soybean planting area in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is 47.6127 million hectares, an increase of 1.4631 million hectares or 3.2% year - on - year, and an increase of 0.097 million hectares or 0.2% month - on - month - The estimated soybean yield per hectare in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is 3.54 tons, an increase of 334.7 kg or 10.5% year - on - year, and an increase of 2.7 kg or 0.1% month - on - month [2]

第一部分 数据分析 银河期货油脂日报 2025/5/13 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 油脂日报 1 / 5 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7792 | (22) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8172 | | | | 8142 | 8092 | | 350 | -10 | 380 | -20 | 300 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 7954 | (70) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8554 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, supported by the China-US tariff joint statement and the USDA report, CBOT soybeans rose, breaking through the trading range since mid - April. The Malaysian palm oil opened higher due to the strong external market but was later suppressed by the unexpectedly high inventory in the April data released by MPOB [6]. - Domestically, as the customs clearance of imported soybeans speeds up, the domestic soybean oil inventory is rising month - on - month with high supply pressure later. The short - term price of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate within a range. The domestic palm oil inventory continues to decline, and the price will mainly follow the import cost. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory continues to rise, but with uncertain medium - to - long - term imported rapeseed supply and the strong recent trend of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. The estimated yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The soybean output is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The US soybean crushing volume is expected to be 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, and the export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [2]. - In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean output reaches a record 426.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% due to Brazil's increased production. The global crushing volume is expected to increase by 3.3% to a record 366.46 million tons, led by Chinese demand. The global export is 188.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, with Brazil's share rising. The ending inventory is estimated to be 124.3 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year [2]. - In April, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 19.37% month - on - month to 1.866 million tons, production increased by 21.52% month - on - month to 1.686 million tons, and exports increased by 9.62% month - on - month to 1.102 million tons [2]. - In the 2025/26 season, China's edible vegetable oil production is predicted to be 30.67 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous year. Among them, soybean oil production is 17.16 million tons and rapeseed oil production is 7.76 million tons, decreasing by 140,000 tons and 80,000 tons respectively due to the decline in soybean and rapeseed imports. Peanut oil production is 4 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons due to better planting benefits and increased policy support. The predicted consumption of edible vegetable oil is the same as the previous year [3][4]. Fundamental Data Charts No information provided. Views and Strategies - International: CBOT soybeans rose due to positive factors, and Malaysian palm oil's rise was suppressed by high inventory [6]. - Domestic: The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil is increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range; the domestic palm oil price follows the import cost; domestic rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The USDA released its May report, with no adjustment to South American production and the US soybean yield maintained at 52.5 bushels per acre as in the February Outlook Forum, resulting in no significant change in the supply pattern [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,024.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 138 yuan or 1.75% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract yesterday was 7,814.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 34.00 yuan or 0.44% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9,378.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 23.00 yuan or 0.25% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,530.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.12%, with a spot basis of P09 + 506.00, a环比 decrease of 128.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of Grade 1 soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,110.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.37%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 296.00, a环比 decrease of 64.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,530.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 20.00 yuan or 0.21%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 152.00, a环比 decrease of 3.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Palm Oil Exports - According to SGS, the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from May 1 - 10 were 215,228 tons, a 1.9% increase from the 211,252 tons exported in the same period last month [2] US Soybean and Corn Information - In May, the expected US soybean production for the 2025/2026 season is 4.34 billion bushels, with a market expectation of 4.338 billion bushels; the expected ending stocks are 295 million bushels, with a market expectation of 362 million bushels; the expected yield is 52.5 bushels per acre, in line with market expectations [2] - As of the week ending May 11, the US soybean planting rate was 48%, higher than the market expectation of 47%, compared to 30% the previous week, 34% last year, and a five - year average of 37% [2] - The US corn planting rate was 62%, higher than the market expectation of 60%, compared to 40% the previous week, 47% last year, and a five - year average of 56% [2] Global Soybean Supply and Demand - Global soybean exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase by 4% to 188.4 million tons compared to the 2024/25 season [2] - Exports from major South American soybean - producing countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) are expected to increase by 8.5 million tons, offsetting the decline in US exports [2] - Argentina's soybean imports are expected to increase due to increased supply from neighboring countries, and import demand in countries such as China, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico, and Algeria has also risen [2] - China's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to be 112 million tons, a 4 - million - ton increase from the revised 2024/25 season expectation [2] - Global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.2 million tons to 124.3 million tons, mainly due to increased stocks in Brazil and Argentina, partially offset by the decline in US stocks [2] South American Soybean Production Forecast - The USDA maintained its forecast for Argentina's 2024/2025 soybean production at 49 million tons, while the market expected 49.25 million tons [2] - The USDA maintained its forecast for Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean production at 169 million tons, while the market expected 169.17 million tons [2]

2025 年 5 月 13 日 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 豆油：关税预期缓和，宏观影响显现 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,886 | -0.28% | 8,022 | 1.72% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,780 | 0.26% | 7,848 | 0.87% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,355 | -0.18% | 9,377 | 0.24% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | / | / | / | / | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 49.83 | 2.59% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 639,471 | -46,487 | 415,413 | -13,408 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 370,50 ...

2025 年 5 月 12 日 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 豆油：震荡寻底，品种间保持偏强 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 7,886 | 涨跌幅 -0.28% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 7,940 | 涨跌幅 0.68% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,780 | 0.26% | 7,780 | 0.00% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,355 | -0.18% | 9,407 | 0.56% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,815 | 0.37% | | | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 48.64 | 0.39% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 639,471 | -46,487 | 415,413 | -13,408 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 370,509 | 27,712 | ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 棕榈油：产地兑现卖压，风险未完全释放 豆油：单边驱动不足，品种间偏强运行 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：产地卖压持续兑现，跟随原油小幅反弹，棕榈油 09 合约周跌幅 3.22%。 豆油：跟随油脂板块和国际油价波动为主，国内现货开机仍未完全放松，豆棕价差持续上涨，豆油 09 合约周跌 0.66%。 本周观点及逻辑： 豆油：国际豆油方面，资金继续以"美国优先"和扶持美豆的逻辑推高美盘油粕比交易，共和党众议 院提出 BTC 延期法案，多美豆油空 BMD 的逻辑持续成立。美豆油当下最大的利多不在于 RVO 公布数字高 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 低，而在于即将公布前夕的风险溢价，并可能以此为由进行多轮炒作。国际油脂供应上暂时关注南美豆油 新作上市何时体现报价压力，国际豆棕价差持续高位、阿根廷豆油进入集中上市季节而当前排船较少，如 果 5-6 月难以保持 50 万吨以上的出口那么国际豆油将面临一定的卖压，进一步拖 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-05-09 昨日三大油脂价格震荡，外盘棕榈油、豆油价格走强，对内盘形成一定支撑，但整体基本面依然利多支撑不足， 价格难有大幅起色。 策略 谨慎看空 风险 政策变化 美豆油价格走强，国内油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约7908.00元/吨，环比变化-6元，幅度-0.08%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7760.00元 /吨，环比变化-26.00元，幅度-0.33%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9372.00元/吨，环比变化+37.00元，幅度+0.40%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8490.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元，幅度-0.47%，现货基差P09+582.00，环比变化-34.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8110.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y09+350.00，环比变 化+16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9520.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.32%，现货基差OI09+148.00， 环比变化-7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至5月6日当周，约15% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil price rebound provides short - term support for palm oil, and soybean oil remains relatively strong among varieties [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 7,908 yuan/ton (down 0.08% during the day, up 0.56% at night), soybean oil主力 at 7,760 yuan/ton (down 0.33% during the day, up 0.93% at night), and rapeseed oil主力 at 9,372 yuan/ton (up 0.40% during the day, up 0.11% at night). The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 3,801 ringgit/ton (up 1.99% during the day, up 0.89% at night), and CBOT soybean oil主力 at 48.40 cents/pound (up 2.26%) [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 trading volume was 685,958 lots (down 62,759), open interest was 428,821 lots (up 2,700); soybean oil主力 trading volume was 342,797 lots (down 13,586), open interest was 607,347 lots (up 4,521); rapeseed oil主力 trading volume was 444,856 lots (up 9,308), open interest was 313,272 lots (up 10,848) [1] - **Spot Prices**: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,520 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,410 yuan/ton (up 70 yuan). The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 945 dollars/ton (down 25 dollars) [1] - **Basis**: Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 612 yuan/ton, soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 400 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was 38 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 1,464 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 148 yuan/ton. Palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 248 yuan/ton, soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 140 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - BIMP - EAGA Business Council plans to strengthen the quality monitoring of crude palm oil in Sabah through cooperation [2][3] - Kenya is interested in cooperating with Malaysia to build a palm oil processing center in Mombasa Industrial Park [3] - As of the week of May 6, about 15% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than 11% last year [3] - Private exporters reported selling 22.5 tons of soybeans to Pakistan for 2025/26 delivery [4] - Anec predicted that Brazil's soybean exports from May 7 to May 10 would be 351.36 tons (down from 376.78 tons last week), and soybean meal exports would be 69.31 tons (up from 52.28 tons last week) [4] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised the forecast of Argentina's 2024/25 soybean harvest from 48.6 million tons to 50 million tons [4] - As of March 31, 2025, Canada's rapeseed inventory decreased by 38.7% year - on - year to 5.9 million tons. Exports increased by 73.6% to 6.8 million tons, and domestic consumption reached a record 8.1 million tons [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity was 0, and soybean oil trend intensity was 0 [6]