Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a favorable position, with the Eurozone nearly achieving the 2% inflation target, indicating a stable economic environment [1] Group 1 - The ECB should remain vigilant and pragmatic in its approach to monetary policy [1] - There is a need for swift responses to changing economic conditions when necessary [1] - Decision-making should include an analysis of the Euro exchange rate [1]

欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：我们处于良好的位置，几乎达到了2%的通胀目标。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a strong position, having nearly reached its 2% inflation target, and should maintain a flexible and pragmatic approach to monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The ECB should act swiftly if necessary, indicating a readiness to respond to economic changes [1] - The appreciation of the euro should be incorporated into the ECB's monetary policy decisions, highlighting the importance of currency value in economic strategy [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the short-term interest rate at 0.5% and plans to slow down the reduction of its balance sheet next year, indicating a cautious approach to unwinding a decade-long large-scale stimulus policy [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, emphasized the need to closely monitor upcoming economic data and the overall inflation situation before considering any rate hikes [1] - There is a recognition of high uncertainty in the economic environment, with mixed signals from sentiment surveys and actual economic data, which complicates the timing of potential interest rate increases [1] Group 2 - Trade uncertainties are expected to suppress winter bonuses and next year's wage negotiations, with actual impacts difficult to predict until more data is available [2] - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East and rising food prices could affect inflation expectations and potential inflation in Japan, necessitating careful monitoring of these developments [2] - The impact of trade tensions may primarily manifest through declining manufacturing profits, prompting companies to adopt cost-cutting pricing strategies [2] Group 3 - Recent data shows consumer inflation fluctuating around 3%, primarily driven by rising import costs and rice prices, although these pressures are expected to gradually dissipate [3] - There is a significant uncertainty surrounding global trade policies, which poses greater downside risks to Japan's economy and price levels [3]

谈及经济和通胀形势，植田和男表示，当前日本经济呈温和复苏态势，物价方面未出现大幅波动，不过 通胀预期仍未稳定达到2%的目标水平。他强调，若经济前景符合预期，将适时考虑加息政策。植田和 男还关注到一些外部因素对通胀趋势的潜在影响，如食品价格上涨以及中东地区冲突，若持续发酵，可 能对趋势通胀产生二次影响，为此，日本央行将密切跟踪中东局势动态。此外，他重申贸易政策存在高 度不确定性，认为其影响预计更为显著，当前全球与情绪相关的数据走弱，不少观点认为今年下半年经 济数据不容乐观，在此背景下，全面、深入评估广泛数据和信息，对准确把握经济形势和制定合理政策 至关重要。 在6月16日至17日的议息会议上，日本央行决定维持0.5%的政策利率不变，展现鸽派政策立场。同时， 下调经济增长预测及通货膨胀预期，指出全球经济体贸易政策不确定性高，给日本经济复苏和物价稳定 带来下行压力。日本央行强调需密切监控外汇市场波动、金融市场动态以及国际贸易政策变化对国内经 济与价格走势的潜在影响。尽管近期通胀率有所上升，但央行决策者倾向于在核心通胀率长期稳固接近 2%目标水平前，维持当前宽松货币政策立场。 日本央行购债计划也有调整。近期宣布，在2 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains the benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the third consecutive meeting of rate stability, aligning with market expectations [1] - The BOJ will continue its bond reduction plan until March 2026, with a quarterly reduction of approximately 200 billion yen starting from April 2026 [1] - Japan's overall economy shows signs of moderate recovery, despite some regional economic activities remaining sluggish [1][2] Group 2 - The consumer price index (CPI) excluding fresh food has increased by approximately 3.5% year-on-year, driven by rising wages, past import price increases, and food price hikes [1] - Core CPI inflation is expected to remain subdued in the short term, but may gradually approach the 2% target in the medium to long term due to labor shortages and economic growth recovery [1][3] - The BOJ emphasizes the importance of flexible adjustments to its bond purchase plan in response to global economic uncertainties and risks, particularly from trade policies [1][3] Group 3 - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda expresses a cautious outlook on domestic and international economic conditions, indicating that all monetary policy tools remain on the table [2] - The decision to reduce bond purchases is aimed at preventing bond yield fluctuations and ensuring market stability [2] - Ueda highlights the need for close monitoring of global economic conditions, particularly trade policy uncertainties, and commits to a flexible response strategy [3]

日本内阁官房长官林芳正：日本央行应适当实施货币政策，以实现通胀目标的稳定和可持续，同时与政 府密切合作。 ...

欧洲央行副行长de Guindos：低于预期的风险非常有限。 欧元汇率不会成为一个重大障碍。 市场认为欧洲央行非常接近通胀目标。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President, Luis de Guindos, stated that the current euro to dollar exchange rate of 1.15 does not pose a significant obstacle to achieving the inflation target [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Growth - The current appreciation of the euro is not rapid and the volatility is not extreme, indicating a stable economic environment [1] - The risks associated with inflation are balanced, with limited risks of falling below the target, as the inflation rate is very close to the target [1] - The ECB believes that tariffs will simultaneously reduce both economic growth and inflation levels in the medium term [1] Group 2: Market Perception and Policy - The market fully understands the communication following policy decisions, reflecting confidence in the ECB's approach [1] - The ECB is confident that the Federal Reserve will maintain currency swap lines, indicating a collaborative monetary policy stance [1] - The discussion regarding the repatriation of gold reserves from New York has not been addressed, suggesting a focus on current monetary policy rather than asset management [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Schnabel advocates for an open-minded approach towards EU joint bonds [1] - The ECB can tolerate a slight deviation from the 2% inflation target [1]