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泰国央行:以6比1的投票结果决定维持利率不变。
news flash· 2025-06-25 07:01
泰国央行:以6比1的投票结果决定维持利率不变。 ...
日本央行鹰派成员:通胀有望比预期更早达到目标,日本可能需要“立即加息”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-25 06:58
日本央行政策委员田村直树周三表示,央行应考虑毫不拖延地进一步加息,因为通胀可能比预期更早达 到目标。这位被视为鹰派的前商业银行高管认为,即使面对美国关税政策的不确定性,央行也可能需 要"果断"行动以应对不断增长的价格压力。 田村直树在福岛县对商界领袖发表讲话时表示: 通胀上升速度可能超过日本央行预测,迫使央行在全球不确定性环境下果断采取行动。实现 价格稳定目标的可能性很大,而且可能比预期更早实现。 这一表态明显比央行行长植田和男更为鹰派。植田和男此前强调,由于美国贸易政策存在"极高"不确定 性,有必要暂停加息。日本央行在上周的政策会议上维持利率不变。 田村直树的言论突显了央行内部在利率政策上的分歧。同日公布的6月会议意见摘要显示,政策委员会 内部存在更为谨慎的声音,一些委员认为在前景极不确定的情况下,央行暂时维持当前政策利率是合适 的。 通胀预期上升可能超出央行预测 田村直树表示,在特朗普4月宣布关税之前,基础通胀一直朝着实现央行2%目标迈进,并且上升速度略 快于预期。他认为,虽然美国关税将在一段时间内对日本经济和价格造成压力,但消费者通胀率可能在 2027财年期间维持在2%左右。 田村直树说道: 一直在上升 ...
美联储官员对利率路径存分歧,地缘因素仍多变
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is cautiously bullish, and for silver is also cautiously bullish. The rating for arbitrage and options is to postpone [8]. Core Viewpoints - The Fed officials have differences on the interest - rate path, and geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver prices are affected by Fed policies and geopolitical situations. Gold prices are in a volatile pattern, and silver prices have strong fluctuations. The operation suggestions for gold and silver are to be cautiously bullish, while arbitrage and options operations should be postponed [1][8]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Fed Chair Powell believes the current policy is in a favorable position and can wait to consider interest - rate adjustments. However, there are differences within the Fed. Bostic expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut later this year, while others like Hammack think there is no urgent need to cut rates. Geopolitically, Trump has complex statements about the Israel - Iran cease - fire and regime change in Iran, and there are disputes over the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On June 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 782.00 yuan/gram and closed at 771.86 yuan/gram, down 1.21% from the previous trading day. The volume was 248,445 lots, and the open interest was 147,344 lots. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,750 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,739 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The volume was 446,808 lots, and the open interest was 341,852 lots [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 24, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.34%, down 0.01% from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 - year spread was 0.55%, up 5 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 173 lots, and the short positions decreased by 614 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts increased by 50.23% to 501,680 lots. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions were 120 lots, and the short positions increased by 89 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts decreased by 9.30% to 795,077 lots [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 955.68 tons, down 1.72 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,877.49 tons, down 73.50 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 24, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 0.66 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 649.13 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 88.32, down 0.86% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 92.98, down 0.30% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 51,470 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 304,350 kilograms, down 30.01% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 7,282 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 66,330 kilograms [7]. Strategies - For gold, it is advisable to enter the market with a light position (10% - 15% position) at the current price and add to the position to about 30% near 730 yuan/gram, with a stop - loss at 708 yuan/gram. For silver, continue to buy on dips for hedging, and pay more attention to position control and strict stop - loss execution. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging near 8,640 yuan/kilogram for the Ag2508 contract, with a stop - loss near 8,590 yuan/kilogram [8].
美国施压无效,中方已仁至义尽,美联储传出重要风声,特朗普态度巨变
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 05:19
鲍威尔(资料图) 鲍威尔在利率决议后的一席话,无意间点破了另一重经济悖论。他警告:"美国政府的关税政策可能会加剧通胀水平,其影响持久且需要时间显现。"此言如 利剑刺穿政治幻象——特朗普引以为傲的关税壁垒,终将成为射向美国经济的回旋镖。当美联储试图以高利率对抗通胀,白宫的贸易战遗产却可能在背后釜 底抽薪。 2025年4月的国际资本流动报告如一石击水:中国当月再度减持82亿美元美国国债,持仓降至7572亿美元,稳居美国第三大海外债主之位。此际正值美债市 场风云激荡,中国却延续了自2022年4月以来的减持主旋律——三年来累计减持已逾2800亿美元。数据无声,却道尽一个事实:华盛顿的焦虑未能撼动北京 基于自身战略考量的冷静抉择。 大洋彼岸,特朗普的推文风暴再起。6月20日,这位美国现任总统候选人火力全开,将美联储主席鲍威尔贴上"太迟先生"标签,并抛出惊人之语——呼吁将 利率大幅砍至1%-2%区间,宣称此举"每年能为美国节省多达1万亿美元"。耐人寻味的是,此前屡次威胁解雇鲍威尔的特朗普,此刻竟话锋一转:"也许,只 是也许,我得改变主意不解雇他了?"这番戏剧性表态,折射出白宫对经济压力的深切忧虑。 特朗普(资料图) 美联 ...
美联储主席鲍威尔:与许多立法者私下交流时认为,美联储在利率政策方面采取的措施是正确的。
news flash· 2025-06-24 16:13
美联储主席鲍威尔:与许多立法者私下交流时认为,美联储在利率政策方面采取的措施是正确的。 ...
克利夫兰联储主席:利率仍处于适度限制区间 短期内或将维持不变
智通财经网· 2025-06-24 14:22
智通财经APP获悉,美国克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周二表示,当前的利率水平"仅具适度限制性",美联 储可能会在一段时间内维持借贷成本不变。 尽管在6月的会议上公布的最新利率预测显示,美联储官员中位数预期今年将有两次降息,但观点存在 明显分歧,有7位官员预计全年不会降息。 经济韧性增强 维持利率不变风险较低 哈马克认为,美国经济展现出较强韧性,因此当前维持利率不变所面临的风险相对较小。她指出,目前 尚未看到足以促使降息的经济疲软迹象,但也"密切关注这一可能性"。 在美联储上次议息会议之后,其他官员也陆续表达了对未来政策调整时间表的不同看法。联储理事克里 斯托弗·沃勒以及监管副主席米歇尔·鲍曼(两位均为特朗普任命的官员)表示,如果通胀继续受控,最早 在7月就可能考虑降息。而旧金山联储主席戴利则认为,秋季降息的可能性更高。 鲍威尔强调耐心等待更多数据 哈马克在伦敦一场会议的预备发言中指出,尽管近期通胀已有所缓解,美联储距离实现其2%的通胀目 标仍"有一段路要走"。她还强调,目前的通胀数据具有滞后性,未必能准确反映当前经济的最新变化, 包括近期油价上涨所带来的通胀预期风险。 截至发稿,美联储主席鲍威尔正在出席众议院金融服 ...
美联储哈马克:利率政策可能在相当长一段时间内保持不变
news flash· 2025-06-24 13:46
据报道,美联储官员哈马克表示,目前没有任何紧迫的理由降息;利率政策可能在相当长一段时间内保 持不变;实现通胀率达到2%的目标仍有一定距离。 ...
美联储哈玛克:由于美联储寻求明确指引,利率政策可能在相当长一段时间内保持不变。
news flash· 2025-06-24 13:20
美联储哈玛克:由于美联储寻求明确指引,利率政策可能在相当长一段时间内保持不变。 ...
鲍威尔今明两天将迎国会“烤问”,为利率按兵不动立场辩护
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-24 01:02
Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will defend the decision to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time during congressional hearings this week, amidst ongoing pressure from former President Trump for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Powell is expected to reiterate that the Federal Reserve is in a favorable position to wait for more economic data before considering any rate changes, emphasizing the need for caution [2][3]. - Economists predict that the core inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve may have only risen by 0.1% for the third consecutive month in May, marking the mildest inflation performance since 2020 [2][3]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of tariffs and interest rate policy are highlighted, with two governors indicating potential support for a rate cut in July [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Conflict Impact - Powell is likely to face questions regarding the economic implications of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, especially after the U.S. engaged directly in the conflict [3]. - The price of WTI crude oil initially surged above $78 but later fell back to around $66, reflecting investor concerns about supply risks [3]. - Powell has indicated that while energy prices may rise during Middle Eastern turmoil, such fluctuations typically do not have lasting effects on inflation [3]. Group 3: Political Pressure and Independence - Republican lawmakers are expected to pressure Powell for clear reasoning behind the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, although not all Republicans will adopt a confrontational approach [5][6]. - Some Democratic lawmakers may support Powell, warning that the Federal Reserve's independence is under threat from Republican pressures [6]. - Powell is anticipated to maintain a calm demeanor during the hearings, emphasizing that Federal Open Market Committee decisions are based on careful, objective analysis [6]. Group 4: Banking Regulation Agenda - Observers will assess Powell's views on ongoing regulatory changes, as the White House pushes for a relaxation of regulations [7]. - The Federal Reserve is considering proposals to lower the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, a rule introduced in 2008 that requires banks to hold a certain amount of capital relative to their assets [7]. - Powell may also need to address a proposal from Senator Ted Cruz to prohibit the Federal Reserve from paying interest on bank reserves, which could impact the Fed's ability to control short-term interest rates [7].
下周关注美欧日6月制造业PMI——海外周报第95期
一瑜中的· 2025-06-23 13:55
文 : 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜(执业证号:S0360518090001) 欧元区:6月PMI初值(6/23) ,6月消费者信心指数终值(6/27)。 日本:6月PMI初值(6/23) ,6月东京CPI数据(6/27),5月失业率和求人倍率(6/27),5月零售销售 (6/27)。 本周海外重要经济数据和事件回顾 美国:1) 美联储6月FOMC会议维持利率不变,符合预期。 2)5月零售销售低于预期 ,环比-0.9%,预 期-0.6%,前值从0.1%下修至-0.1%,除汽车外的零售销售环比-0.3%,预期0.2%,前值从0.1%下修至0%。 3)5月工业产值低于预期 ,环比-0.2%,预期0%,前值从0上修至0.1%。 4)5月进口价格指数高于预期 , 环比0%,预期-0.2%,前值0.1%。 5) 5月新屋开工折年125.6万套,预期135万套,前值从136.1万套上修至 139.2万套。 欧元区:5月CPI终值符合预期 。CPI同比终值1.9%,预期1.9%,初值从1.9%上修为2.2%,前值2.2%;核 心CPI同比2.3%,初值2.3%,前值2.3%。 日本:1) 日央行6月会议维持 ...