Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the actions taken by Donald Trump during his second term in office, highlighting his efforts to fulfill campaign promises and the mixed results of these initiatives. Group 1: Economic Policies - Trump has made claims about reducing inflation, with rates dropping from a peak of 9.1% in 2022 to 2.4% in March 2025, but the legality and effectiveness of his tariff policies remain uncertain [1] - His tax reduction plans are expected to decrease national revenue, complicating debt repayment, and the national debt increased significantly during his first term despite similar promises [2] - Trump has implemented tariffs on foreign goods, which he believes will protect American interests, but this has led to market volatility and mixed results [6] Group 2: Immigration Policies - There has been a significant decrease in attempted illegal border crossings, from nearly 250,000 in December 2023 to about 7,181 in March 2025, although comparisons to previous administrations are still pending [3] Group 3: Energy Policies - Trump has promised to reduce energy costs significantly, with some predictions indicating a potential drop in gasoline prices by up to 15 cents per gallon due to his tariff policies [5] Group 4: Social and Cultural Policies - Trump has taken steps to cut funding for educational institutions that do not align with his administration's values, targeting universities like Harvard and threatening to revoke their tax-exempt status [11] - His administration has also sought to eliminate diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, impacting cultural institutions and federal funding for certain projects [12] - Trump has signed orders to restrict transgender athletes from competing in women's sports, reflecting his commitment to conservative social policies [13] Group 5: Legal and Judicial Actions - Some of Trump's initiatives have faced legal challenges, raising questions about their long-term viability and the potential for judicial review to impact his policy agenda [1]

在全球 AI 人才争夺战愈演愈烈的今天，许多技术人却不得不面对一种无力的现实。最近，OpenAI 的一位核心研究员 Kai Chen，因绿卡申请被拒，不得 不离开美国，这一消息在科技圈引发了广泛关注。 Kai Chen（昵称也叫 Cathy）是一位加拿大籍的 AI 研究员，尽管她已经在美国生活和工作了 12 年，但据 OpenAI 高级研究科学家 Noam Brown 透露，她 于上周五收到美国绿卡申请被拒的通知，很快就要被迫离境。 Brown 在 X 社交平台上发帖表示："这是件非常令人担忧的事。Kai 是我合作过的最优秀的 AI 研究员之一。一个已经在美国生活、做出贡献 12 年的加拿 大人，现在却被迫离开。美国如果继续这样对待人才，AI 领域的领先地位真的要受影响了。" GPT-4.5 核心贡献者被迫离开 根据科技薪资信息网站 Levels.fyi 的数据，OpenAI 的研究科学家年薪大约在 62 万到 156 万美元之间。Chen 在博客上晒出的一张驾照照片显示，她当时居 住在 OpenAI 总部所在的旧金山。 在得知 Chen 的遭遇之后，另一位 OpenAI 员工 Dylan Hunn 转发 B ...

金十数据4月28日讯，据华尔街日报报道，一位白宫高级官员透露，特朗普总统计划于周一签署一项行 政命令，加大对由民主党领导、不完全配合联邦移民执法的州和城市的打击力度。这些州和城市是他承 诺大规模驱逐非法移民的一大障碍。这项行政命令指示司法部长和国土安全部部长在一个月内确定不遵 守联邦移民法的城市和州，并将其指定为"庇护管辖区"。被列入名单的城市和州，可能面临联邦资金被 切断的风险，并可能因拒绝改变其法律或做法而遭遇刑事和民事诉讼。特朗普还将指示司法部，对那些 在他看来优待非法移民而非美国公民的城市或州提起民权诉讼。行政命令特别提到了某些州法律，这些 法律允许非法移民享受州内公立大学的学费优惠，而对外州美国公民则不提供此优惠。目前至少已有25 个州以某种形式采纳了类似法律。 特朗普计划签署行政令以打击优待非法移民的美国城市和州 ...

Core Insights - Trump's approval rating has dropped to 39%, marking the lowest approval rating for a U.S. president at the 100-day mark in the past 80 years [2] - A significant portion of the public, 72%, believes Trump's economic policies may lead to a recession in the short term, with 53% stating that the economic situation has worsened since he took office [2] - Trump's handling of immigration and government management has faced disapproval from over half of the respondents [2] Group 1: Approval Ratings - Trump's overall approval rating stands at approximately 39%, with a notable decline of 4 percentage points since March and a 7-point drop since February [2] - Among Republicans, about 86% express approval, while 93% of Democrats disapprove, indicating a stark partisan divide [2] - Support among independents has fallen to 31%, reflecting a significant decrease in cross-party appeal [2] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Trump's approval regarding economic management has decreased by 9 percentage points to 35%, with only 52% of respondents expressing confidence in his economic handling, down 13 points from December [3] - Concerns over tariffs have also contributed to a 4-point drop in approval to 35%, leading to volatility in the stock market and rising price concerns [2][3] - Approximately 41% of respondents feel their financial situation has deteriorated since Trump's presidency began [2] Group 3: Public Sentiment on Policies - A majority of Democrats view Trump's immigration and tariff policies as excessive, with many expressing a negative outlook on his economic prospects compared to his previous term [1] - Trump's foreign policy, particularly his stance on Russia amid the Ukraine conflict, has garnered significant opposition, with only 39% approval [3] - Confidence in Trump's ability to handle foreign affairs has decreased to 50%, down from 55% before he took office [3]

Core Viewpoint - The trade relationship between Japan and the United States is significantly impacted by the recent tariff policies initiated by the Trump administration, leading to widespread concern among Japanese industries about the negative effects of "reciprocal tariffs" [1][6]. Industry Impact - Over half (52.3%) of surveyed companies reported that "reciprocal tariffs" have a "negative" impact, with only 1.3% indicating a "positive" effect [2]. - The manufacturing sector is the most affected, with 64.4% of manufacturing companies reporting negative impacts, followed by wholesale (56.4%), transportation (51.5%), and agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and mining (51.2%) [2][3]. - Among the 5,314 surveyed companies, 46.2% stated that the tariffs would have no impact, while 30.3% felt there would be slight negative effects, and 22.0% anticipated significant negative impacts [2]. Specific Industry Responses - The manufacturing industry, particularly the automotive sector, is identified as a "disaster zone" due to the high negative impact from tariffs [3]. - In the manufacturing sector, non-ferrous metal manufacturing reported the highest negative impact at 83.3%, followed by steel (79.4%) and rubber products (79.1%) [3]. - The retail sector had the highest percentage of companies reporting a positive impact at 3.6%, with other sectors like real estate and wholesale showing minimal positive responses [4]. Company Strategies - A significant portion (65.1%) of companies reported having "no special" countermeasures in response to the tariffs, indicating a lack of immediate strategic planning [5]. - Among those considering responses, 9.7% plan to reduce inventory, and 9.0% may cancel or reduce capital investments [5]. - Companies are primarily focused on assessing the impact of tariffs rather than implementing proactive measures [5]. Policy Concerns - The highest concern among surveyed companies is the tariff policy, with 54.7% indicating it as a primary focus, particularly among larger enterprises [6]. - The construction, manufacturing, and financial sectors show the highest levels of concern regarding tariff policies [6]. Government Response - The Japanese government, represented by the economic revitalization minister, emphasizes the urgency of addressing the tariff situation, labeling it a "national crisis" [7].

特朗普1月20日上任第一天，就宣布在美国南部与墨西哥边境实施国家紧急状态，并誓言遣返"数以百万计"的非法居留者。美国国土安全部同月21日还宣 布，特朗普政府已废除上届政府出台的指导意见，不再限制在学校等敏感地点附近逮捕非法移民。辛鲍姆当天则呼吁"冷静"对待美国政府移民新政。此外， 《洛杉矶时报》称，辛鲍姆3月和美国国土安全部长诺姆在墨西哥城的一次会议上讨论了移民和贩毒问题，辛鲍姆此后称会议"富有成效"。 《洛杉矶时报》说，这则广告在墨西哥引发强烈争议。相关政府机构上周收到大量投诉后要求相关电视台撤下广告，称其"包含歧视性信息，践踏尊严，并 可能煽动针对移民的暴力行为"。 该国总统辛鲍姆在21日新闻发布会也谈及此事，并表示她正向国会提交法案，以禁止外国政府资助或投放含有侮辱墨西哥内容的广告，"一个国家的城市想 要推广其旅游业和文化，与传播歧视性信息的付费广告是截然不同的"。 【环球网报道】据美国《洛杉矶时报》报道，特朗普政府制作的"警告非法移民不要前往美国"的广告日前在墨西哥主要电视台播放，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆21日 对此作出回应，称相关广告"具有歧视性"，并表示墨西哥政府已要求电视台撤下相关广告。 《洛杉矶时报》 ...

每经编辑 毕陆名 据新华社4月22日消息，美国国土安全部21日向媒体证实，国土安全部长克丽丝蒂·诺姆20日在首都华盛顿市中心一家餐厅用餐时手提包被窃，包内装有敏感 证件和私人物品。 据美国媒体报道，诺姆的手提包内有出入美国国土安全部设施的证件以及驾照、护照等重要证件，此外还有支票、公寓钥匙、化妆包和3000多美元现金等。 她当时正和家人们一起共度复活节。 报道说，负责诺姆安保的美国特勤局人员事后在查看监控录像时发现，一名戴着医用口罩的白人男子离开餐厅时偷走了诺姆的手提包。特勤局已启动追踪调 查。目前尚不清楚该嫌疑人是否已被锁定，以及特勤局为何会出现如此安全漏洞。 美国总统特朗普于2024年11月12日发表声明，提名诺姆为新任国土安全部部长。当地时间1月25日，美国参议院以59票赞成、34票反对的结果确认克里斯蒂· 诺姆出任国土安全部部长。 诺姆在参议院投票确认其出任后发布声明称，确保南部边境安全并修复美国"支离破碎的"移民系统是她的首要任务之一。 据报道，诺姆曾任南达科他州州长，和美国总统特朗普一样持有强硬的移民观点。作为特朗普移民遣返行动的执行部门，国土安全部受到了外界较多的关 注。 诺姆常在电视广告和社交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The changes in President Trump's immigration policy are not expected to have an immediate impact on the job market according to San Francisco Fed President Daly [1] Group 1 - President Trump's immigration policy changes are not anticipated to cause "immediate" effects on employment [1]

来源 | 智堡Mikko 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本文翻译自鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部 的演讲与问答 摘要 一、经济现状与货币政策 1 经济基本面： 2 政策挑战： 二、贸易政策与市场影响 1 关税效应： 2 金融市场反应： 三、劳动力市场与长期风险 1 当前状态： 2 潜在威胁： • 美国经济保持稳固，劳动力市场接近充分就业，失业率稳定在4%左右。 • 通胀已从2022年峰值显著回落，但仍略高于2%的目标（核心PCE为2.6%）。 • 新政府政策（贸易、移民、财政、监管）带来高度不确定性，可能加剧通胀并抑制增长。 • 关税可能导致价格水平一次性上涨，若传导至消费者预期，或引发持续性通胀风险。 • 美联储需平衡双重使命（就业与通胀），警惕政策目标冲突（如高失业率与高通胀并存）。 • 已宣布的关税幅度超预期，直接影响包括： • 通胀抬升：进口成本增加可能转嫁给消费者。 • 供应链扰动：若导致关键商品短缺（如半导体），可能延长通胀压力。 • 企业普遍反映"政策不确定性"抑制投资决策，可能拖累长期经济增长。 • 股市波动加剧（VIX指数攀升），债券市场出现避险与收益率上升的背离现象。 • 美联储强调市 ...

在2015年的欧洲难民潮中，德国是接受难民最多的欧盟国家，对100多万来自叙利亚、阿富汗等国 的难民打开大门。在俄乌冲突中，德国继续接收上百万乌克兰难民。 随着德国经济下滑、袭击事件频 发，国内的反移民和反难民情绪也在上升。 在国防上，基民盟主张大幅提升德国的国防支出，达到占GDP比例的3.5%。目前北约成员国的目 标是2%。社民党认同应提高国防支出，但不愿大幅提升。 德国正在改变该国长期以来的财政审慎立场，推动扩大财政支出。上周五，德国联邦参议院通过联 盟党和社民党在组阁谈判中提出的财政方案，方案此前得到即将离任的联邦议院批准。 该方案将允许德国政府设立5000亿欧元基建专项基金，以支持交通、电网等基础设施建设。方案还 提出修订德国《基本法》中的"债务刹车"条款，放宽后的政府债务上限将用于国防等大规模支出。 德国政府解散，新联盟政府计划推最严移民政策 当地时间3月25日，德国总统弗兰克-瓦尔特·施泰因迈尔向现任德国总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨及其内阁成 员移交解职证明，德国现任政府解散。由于新一届政府尚未正式出炉，朔尔茨将在新政府成立前继续履 职。 根据德国法律，联邦政府总理及其内阁任期到新一届联邦议院会议召开时结束 ...