宏 观 研 究 稳就业稳经济新闻发布会 国 内 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾东旭 (8621)23297818× jiadx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 04 月 28 日 打好稳就业"组合拳" ——稳就业稳经济新闻发布会学习理解 事件：4 月 28 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施。 ⚫ 稳内需、稳就业相辅相成。促消费政策侧重改善服务消费供给，稳投资侧重既有政策落地 消费方面，除了继续拨付消费品以旧换新补贴资金外，政策后续还将通过建立育儿补贴制 度、创设专项再贷款工具等多维发力。发改委副主任赵辰昕透露第二批以旧换新补贴资金 已拨付到位，后续仍有 1400 亿元待分配额度。服务消费方面聚焦供给侧，央行副行长邹 澜表示"着重从服务消费供给侧发力，聚焦文旅体育、餐饮住宿、教育培训等重点领域， 加大金融支持力度"，预计配 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the resilience of China's foreign exchange market and plans to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to support employment and growth amid recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market [1][2]. Foreign Exchange Market - The impact of fluctuations in a single market or asset on China's foreign exchange reserves is generally limited, as the reserves are diversified and managed with safety, liquidity, and value preservation in mind [1]. - China's foreign exchange reserves remain stable at over $3.2 trillion, supported by a balanced international payment situation and a resilient foreign exchange market [2]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential adjustments to reserve requirement ratios and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [3]. - The central bank aims to enhance financial support for key sectors such as technology innovation, green finance, and inclusive finance, while ensuring reasonable growth in money and credit [3]. Employment and Economic Growth - The PBOC will intensify support for employment through policies like entrepreneurship guarantee loans, particularly targeting groups such as returning migrant workers and recent graduates [4]. - Financial institutions will be guided to continue lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are heavily reliant on foreign trade and facing temporary difficulties [4]. Support for Private Enterprises - The PBOC is committed to enhancing financial services for private enterprises, ensuring a favorable monetary environment through adequate liquidity and targeted financial support measures [5]. - The central bank will broaden financing channels for private enterprises, including expanding bond financing and improving access to foreign capital [6]. Data Insights - As of March 2025, the loan balance for privately held enterprises is approximately 45 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.4 trillion yuan in the first three months of the year [6]. - The weighted average interest rate for new loans to privately held enterprises in March was about 3.41%, a decrease of 58 basis points compared to the same period last year [6].

文/《清华金融评论》 周茗一 国务院新闻办公室于2025年4月28日（星期一）上午10时举行新闻发布会，请国 家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕、人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋、商务部副部 长盛秋平、中国人民银行副行长邹澜介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措 施有关情况，并答记者问。 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕 表示，4月18日召开的国务院常务会议已就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措（下称若干举措），进行了研究。若干 举措与去年9月一揽子增量政策、中央经济工作会议和全国"两会"部署任务形成接续，是应对外部环境变化的重要举措，是落实党中央和国务院决策部署 的具体行动。 具体来看，若干举措具体包括五方面内容。 关于近期美国国债和美元汇率市场出现大幅振荡 中国人民银行副行长邹澜 表示，美国宣布对多个经济体大幅加征关税，严重侵犯各国正当权益，严重损害以规则为基础的多边治理体制，严重冲击全球 经济秩序，破坏全球经济长期稳定增长。同时，也引发了全球金融市场剧烈波动，投资者对美元资产的风险情绪上升，美元指数大幅下行，美债收益率上 升，美国股市波动加剧，全球资产组合在区域间重新配置。 在积极扩大有效投资方面，主要包括完善消费基础设 ...

点评： 1、一季度国内经济实现"开门红"，二季度将实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 会议对当前经济形势做出研判，指出"我国经济呈现向好态势"，但同时，"经济持续回升向 好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大"。从数据来看，2025年一季度GDP增长5.4%， 增速高于市场预期和全年增长目标，国民经济实现良好开局，经济面修复改善。宏观政策方面， 会议强调"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策"。财政政策方面，4月财政部启动今年1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和5000亿元中央金融机构 注资特别国债发行，加之会议提出"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用"，预 计未来一段时间地方政府债券还会保持较快发行节奏。总体看，国内财政政策空间充足。货币政 策方面，由于一季度经济超预期，4月LPR继续保持不变。此外，目前我国经济修复动能呈现增强 趋势，A股市场整体表现较为韧性，人民币汇率短期面临一定压力，所以短期宽货币政策或有所 延后。但与此同时，受外部经贸环境变化影响，宏观政策助力稳增长的必要性上升，4月央行MLF 净投放达到5000亿元，为连续第二个月加量续作，此次会议也延 ...

Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - The Chinese government will implement several measures to stabilize employment and the economy, focusing on high-quality development [1][5] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aims to establish a childcare subsidy system and create special re-lending tools to support service consumption and the elderly care industry [1][6] - The government plans to issue additional car purchase quotas for key groups such as families with long-term lottery registrations and those without cars [1][6] Group 2: Employment and Job Creation - In the first quarter, 3.08 million new urban jobs were created nationwide [2] - Policies will be accelerated to support enterprises in expanding job positions [2][6] Group 3: Consumer and Investment Support - The implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy is expected to boost consumption by over 720 billion yuan [2] - The government will allocate approximately 1.4 trillion yuan in funds for consumption upgrades in the near future [1][11] Group 4: Financial and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported a 7% year-on-year growth in M2 money supply, with social financing stock increasing by 8.4% [13][14] - The PBOC will maintain a prudent monetary policy and may adjust interest rates and reserve requirements as needed [13][15] Group 5: Domestic Demand and Market Potential - The potential for expanding domestic demand is significant, with the automotive market alone having a potential demand of several trillion yuan due to the current vehicle ownership of 353 million [10][11] - The government emphasizes the importance of increasing income for low- and middle-income groups to stimulate consumption and effective investment [11][12]

【导读】四部门发声，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况 4月28日上午，国务院新闻办公室举行发布会，国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕、人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋、商务部 副部长盛秋平、中国人民银行副行长邹澜出席发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况，并答记者 问。 国家发改委： 将出台稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕表示，4月18日，国务院常务会议已对稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措进行了研究。 具体包括五方面内容： 在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈等支持、加强就业公共服务等 几项具体举措。 在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括一业一策、一企一策加大支持力度，帮助出口企业规避风险，扩大服务产品"出海"，鼓励 外资企业境内再投资等几项具体举措。 在促进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务消费，强化失能老年人照护，推动汽车消费扩容，构建技能导向的薪酬分配制度等几 项具体举措。 在积极扩大有效投资方面，主要包括完善消费基础设施、大力提振民间投资积极性、设立新型政策性金融工具等几项具体 举措。 赵辰昕表示，一季度，中国经济交出 ...

每经记者 周逸斐 每经编辑 廖丹 4月28日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况。 4月25日召开的中央政治局会议提出，要不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱。今年就业形势如何？发布会上，人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋表示，今 年一季度，就业形势保持总体稳定，全国城镇新增就业308万人，同比增加5万人，快于时序进度。城镇调查失业率一季度均值是5.3%，低于预期控制目 标。高校毕业生、农民工、困难人员等重点群体就业平稳。 在营造稳定发展的良好环境方面，主要包括持续稳定和活跃资本市场、持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势、加大对实体经济的金融支持等几项具体举措。 "国家发展改革委将积极会同各有关方面抓好若干举措落实，同时还将按照党中央、国务院要求，常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备，充分备足预案，不断 完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，根据形势变化及时出台增量储备政策。我们相信，若干举措的出台实施将对经济形成有力支撑，能够促进经济平稳健康发 展和保持社会大局稳定。"赵辰昕表示。 对个人加大就业补贴支持 中央政治局会议提出，要不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，今年就业形势怎么样？下一步稳就业将会采取哪些 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that multiple government departments are confident in achieving this year's economic and social development goals through various policy measures aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development [1][3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has outlined several measures to support employment, stabilize foreign trade, promote consumption, expand effective investment, and create a stable development environment [3]. - Specific initiatives in employment support include encouraging companies to maintain jobs, enhancing vocational training, and improving public employment services [3]. Group 2 - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of promoting consumption through expanding service consumption, strengthening care for the elderly, and boosting automobile consumption [3]. - The Chinese financial market is currently stable, with the RMB exchange rate against the USD around 7.3, indicating a controlled currency environment despite fluctuations in the US debt and dollar exchange rates [5]. - The NDRC has assured that China's grain and energy supply will remain stable, with a focus on domestic production and minimal reliance on imports from the US, particularly in the context of the US imposing tariffs [7][8]. Group 3 - China's grain security strategy emphasizes self-sufficiency, with a projected grain output of 1.4 trillion jin in 2024, ensuring food security well above the international standard [7]. - The energy supply system in China is robust, with an energy self-sufficiency rate of over 80%, and a diverse energy mix that includes coal, oil, gas, nuclear, and renewable sources [8]. - The NDRC plans to continue implementing the national food security strategy and enhance energy security measures to ensure stable domestic supply and market operations [8].

金 融 期 货 研 究 | 期指：关注今日发布会 毛磊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | | maolei@gtht.com | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 涨跌幅% 成交额-亿 | 基 差 | | 成交量 | 变 | | 动 | 动 | 持仓量 | 变 | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3786.99 | ↑0.07 | | 2205.4 | | | | | | IF2505 | 3774.8 | ↑0.14 | -12.19 | 282.3 | 24910 | ↑984 | 48945 | ↓1234 | | IF2506 | 3739. ...

智通财经4月28日电，陕西省长、省政府党组书记赵刚4月27日主持召开省政府党组会议。会议强调，要 切实把思想和行动统一到党中央对经济形势的科学判断和对下一步经济工作的决策部署上来，坚定信 心、主动作为，持续扬优势、补短板、守底线，进一步巩固经济回升向好态势。要聚焦稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期，千方百计促进高校毕业生等重点群体高质量充分就业，紧盯重点行业、重点企业 加大助企帮扶力度，集中整治涉企乱收费、乱罚款、乱检查、乱查封问题，加强政策评估和跟踪问效， 不断提升政策举措的针对性、精准性和时效性，努力以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不 确定性。 陕西：紧盯重点行业、重点企业加大助企帮扶力度 集中整治涉企乱收费、乱罚款、乱检查、乱查封问 题 ...