美联储理事库格勒：目前的联邦基金利率处于适度到温和收紧的区间。 ...

Core Points - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) was reported at 4.35% on May 30, an increase from the previous day's rate of 4.33% [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on the same day, consistent with the previous day's rate [1]

Market Performance - On May 30, the New York stock market opened lower and experienced narrow fluctuations before closing mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 54.34 points to 42,270.07, a gain of 0.13% [1] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.48 points to 5,911.69, a decrease of 0.01%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 62.11 points to 19,113.77, a decline of 0.32% [1] - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, eight sectors rose and three fell, with the Consumer Staples and Utilities sectors leading gains at 1.16% and 1.08%, respectively [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, matching market expectations, while the year-on-year increase was 2.1%, also in line with expectations but lower than March's 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.1% month-on-month in April, consistent with market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, matching expectations [1] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's final report indicated that the consumer confidence index for May was 52.2, surpassing market expectations of 52 and matching April's figure [2] - Consumers' inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 6.6%, up from 6.5% in the previous month, while long-term inflation expectations decreased from 4.4% in April to 4.2% in May [2] Company Performance - Costco, a membership-based retail chain, reported earnings slightly above market expectations, leading to a 3.12% increase in its stock price on May 30 [2]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed significant gains, with Nasdaq futures up 1.72%, S&P 500 futures up 1.44%, and Dow futures up 1.05% [1][2] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.73%, reaching a high of $62.29 per barrel [2][3] - Spot gold prices decreased by 0.79%, currently at $3262.48 per ounce [2][3] - The US dollar index rose by 0.44%, currently at 100.334 [2][3] Economic Policy and Legal Developments - A US federal court blocked President Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority by imposing tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US [5] - The court emphasized that only Congress has the power to regulate trade, and Trump's emergency powers do not override this authority [5] - The lawsuit was initiated by a non-profit organization representing five small US businesses affected by the tariffs, marking a significant legal challenge to Trump's trade policies [5] Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the FOMC meeting held on May 6-7 [6][7] - Committee members expressed the need to carefully assess future data and evolving economic conditions before making further adjustments to the interest rate [6][7] - There is an acknowledgment of increased uncertainty regarding economic prospects, with rising risks of unemployment and inflation [7]

Group 1 - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) was reported at 4.26% on May 23, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate was also reported at 4.33% on the same day, remaining stable from the prior day [1]

Group 1 - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) on May 22 was reported at 4.26%, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate on the same day was also reported at 4.26%, consistent with the prior day's figure [1]

Group 1 - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) was reported at 4.27% on May 20, down from 4.29% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on the same day [1] - Continuous inflow of funds is putting pressure on the overnight repurchase agreement rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should strengthen its mechanisms for controlling interest rates to more effectively prevent spikes in money market rates during periods of market stress [1] Group 1 - Dallas Fed President Logan emphasizes the need for more banks to utilize the discount window and to centralize operations of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) [1] - Logan suggests that the Federal Reserve should pay attention to broader market interest rates, not just the federal funds rate [1] - According to Logan, interest rate control involves maintaining the federal funds rate within the target range, but it should encompass a wider perspective on market rates [1]

Group 1 - The SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) reported at 4.30% on May 16, down from 4.31% the previous day, indicating a slight decrease in overnight borrowing costs [1] - The sale of three-month Treasury bills by the U.S. Treasury will test market risk appetite following the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on the same day, consistent with the previous day's rate [1]

5月16日美股盘前，大单SOFR期权押注美联储到2026年6月可能会降息100个基点。 上个交易日有效的联邦基金利率报4.33%，之前一天报4.33%。 据美国纽约联储数据，上个交易日（5月15日）担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）报4.31%，之前一天报 4.29%。 ...