以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭 等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 常规跟踪：广义财政收支增速均有提升，一季度预算完成度均高于过去五年同期平均 一般财政收入有所修复，推动广义财政收入回暖。 3月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，较2月同比提升1.2个百 分点；其中，政府性基金收入同比-11.7%，一般财政收入同比0.3%。从预算完成度看，3月广义财政收入 预算完成6.8%，略高于2024年同期及过去五年平均的6.6%；一季度广义财政收入预算完成24.6%，高于 过去五年平均24.1%。 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 摘要 事件： 4月18日，财政部公布2025年一季度财政收支情况。一季度，全国一般公共预算收入60189亿元， 同比下降1.1%；全国一般公共预算支出72815亿元，同比增长4.2%。 点评：财政"续力"正当时，储备政策推出节奏值得重点关注 广义财政收支增速均有提升，一季度预算完成度均高于过去五年同期平均。 2025年3月，广义财政收入 同比-1.7%，广义财政支出同比10.1%， ...

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 摘要 一般财政收入有所修复，推动广义财政收入回暖。 3月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，较2月同比提升1.2个百 分点；其中，政府性基金收入同比-11.7%，一般财政收入同比0.3%。从预算完成度看，3月广义财政收入 预算完成6.8%，略高于2024年同期及过去五年平均的6.6%；一季度广义财政收入预算完成24.6%，高于 过去五年平均24.1%。 一般财政、政府性基金支出均加快，推动广义财政支出明显提速。 3月广义财政支出同比10.1%，较2月 增速提升7.2个百分点；一般财政支出同比5.7%，政府性基金支出同比27.9%。从预算完成度看3月广义财 政支出预算完成8.6%，略低于过去五年平均支出进度8.8%。一季度广义财政支出预算完成21.9%，略高 于过去五年平均21.8%。 风险提示 事件： 4月18日，财政部公布2025年一季度财政收支情况。一季度，全国一般公共预算收入60189亿元， 同比下降1.1%；全国一般公共预算支出72815亿元，同比增长4.2%。 点评：财政"续力"正当时，储备政策推出节奏值得重点关注 广义财政收支增速均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure data for January-February 2025 indicates a need for increased fiscal support through financing, as both revenue and expenditure growth rates are slowing down compared to previous years [2][8][13]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [7]. - The national general public budget expenditure was 45,096 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [7]. - The broad fiscal revenue decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, while the budget completion rate was 17.8%, higher than the five-year average of 17.5% [4][8]. Group 2: Fiscal Support and Debt Issuance - The broad fiscal expenditure growth was 2.9% year-on-year, with a budget completion rate of 13.4%, consistent with the five-year average [5][21]. - New general bonds and carryover funds provided effective support for early fiscal expenditures, with a fiscal revenue shortfall of 0.6 trillion yuan, higher than the average of 0.1 trillion yuan from 2020-2024 [10][11]. - The issuance of new local bonds and special refinancing bonds reached nearly 1.8 trillion yuan in January-February 2025, with special refinancing bonds issued at a faster pace [11][13]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Expenditure Trends - Expenditure in science and technology, education, and social security showed relatively high growth rates of 10.6%, 7.7%, and 6.7% respectively [23]. - Government fund expenditure grew by 1.2% year-on-year, significantly slowing down due to a 15.7% decrease in land transfer income [28]. - The budget completion rate for government fund expenditure was 9.1%, lower than the five-year average of 9.7% [28].