医药生物 2025 年 06月 09 日 从供需看,中国创新药能从海外分成多少钱? 投资要点: 行情回顾:本周(2025年6月3日-2025年6月6日)中信医药指数 A 上涨 1.2%,跑赢沪深 300指数 0.3 pct,在中信一级行业分类中排名第 16 位;2025年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 8.3%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 9.9pct,在中信行业分类中排名第5位。本周涨幅前五的个股为:易明医药 (+33.09%)、万邦德(+32.59%)、昂利康(+30.28%)、新诺威(+21.36%)、 海辰药业(+20.93%)。 周专题:跨国药企专利悬崖释放超 2400 亿美元市场空间,中国凭借技 A 术平台与研发效率优势成为全球创新药供给的核心力量。截至 2037年,全 球市场 27款 2024年销售额超 40亿美元的重磅药物面临专利失效,MNC 均有迫切寻找重磅创新药的需求。我们认为目前已经进入下一个创新药周 期的投入阶段,中国创新药在细胞疗法、ADC、双抗等技术领域在研管线 数量全球第一,在 716个赛道研发进度第一,有望依托 License-out 模式实 现技术价值全球化兑现,加速填补 MNC ...

21世纪经济报道记者季媛媛 头部跨国药企在2025年经历了天差地别的命运分化。 从财报数据中就可看出其中的端倪。根据财报显示，诺和诺德公布的2025年第三季度业绩报告显示，第 三季度总营收749.76亿丹麦克朗（约112.76亿美元），同比增长11%；2025年前三季度总营收达2299.20 亿丹麦克朗（约345.8亿美元），同比增长15%。司美格鲁肽系列产品持续领跑业绩，三大品牌销售额 表现亮眼：Ozempic（降糖版）：952.64亿丹麦克朗（约143.28亿美元），增长13%；Rybelsus（口服片 剂）：167.90亿丹麦克朗（约25.25亿美元），增长5%；Wegovy（减肥版）：572.42亿丹麦克朗（约 86.09亿美元），大幅增长54%。三大品牌销售额总计约1692.96亿丹麦克朗（约254.62亿美元），同比 增长24%，贡献了公司大部分营收。其销售业绩现已高于替尔泊肽（248.37亿美元）与帕博利珠单抗 （233.03亿美元）。 相比之下，尽管默沙东拥有"网红"产品PD - 1单抗K药（Keytruda，帕博利珠单抗）以及九价HPV疫苗， 但其2025年前三个季度制药业务收入为432.9 ...

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing significant performance divergence among major multinational companies in 2025, with some achieving remarkable growth while others face substantial declines [1][4][6]. Financial Performance - Novo Nordisk reported Q3 2025 revenues of 74.976 billion Danish Krone (approximately $11.276 billion), a year-on-year increase of 11%, with total revenues for the first three quarters reaching 229.92 billion Danish Krone (approximately $34.58 billion), up 15% [1]. - Merck's pharmaceutical business revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $43.299 billion, with a 68% year-on-year decline in revenue from China, dropping to $1.452 billion [2]. - Eli Lilly achieved a Q3 2025 revenue of $17.6 billion, a 54% increase from $11.439 billion in the same period last year, with total revenues for the first three quarters reaching $45.887 billion, up 46% [3]. - Pfizer's Q3 2025 total revenue was $16.654 billion, a 6% decrease from $17.702 billion year-on-year, with a 55% drop in revenue from its COVID-19 oral drug Paxlovid [4]. Strategic Adjustments - Major pharmaceutical companies are actively seeking solutions to address strategic challenges, including layoffs and business divestitures, with 190 layoffs reported in the biopharmaceutical sector in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][9]. - Companies like Merck and Novo Nordisk are implementing significant cost-cutting measures, with Merck aiming to save $3 billion by 2027 and Novo Nordisk targeting an annual cost saving of 8 billion Danish Krone [9]. - The trend of divesting mature assets is becoming common, with investment firms stepping in as buyers, indicating a shift in the operational landscape of the pharmaceutical industry in China [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese market is no longer a guaranteed profit zone for multinational pharmaceutical companies, with significant performance disparities emerging among leading firms [5][12]. - The ongoing "patent cliff" is a critical concern, with many companies facing over 20% revenue exposure to patent expirations in the next three years, impacting their financial stability [4][5]. - The competition in the pharmaceutical sector is intensifying, necessitating companies to adapt quickly to local market policies and innovate their product pipelines to maintain growth [6][12]. Future Outlook - The future of multinational pharmaceutical companies will heavily rely on their innovation capabilities, local market strategies, and management of patent expirations [12][15]. - Companies that successfully transition to innovation-driven models and establish strong positions in emerging therapeutic areas are likely to thrive, while those unable to adapt may face ongoing growth pressures [12][15]. - The restructuring of global pharmaceutical strategies is expected to accelerate, focusing on both downsizing and investing in innovative fields, such as gene and cell therapies [9][10].

在经历了股价腰斩的至暗时刻与"减肥药之王"宝座的旁落后，丹麦制药巨头诺和诺德正试图通过一项大胆的政治博弈与产品加速策略重夺市场主 导权。 面对强劲对手礼来的步步紧逼，诺和诺德新任管理层选择以牺牲部分利润空间为代价，换取美国政府的关税豁免与监管绿灯，力求在新一代口服 药竞争中抢占先机。 据彭博报道，诺和诺德已与特朗普政府达成一项关键协议：公司同意大幅降低其明星减肥药物在美国联邦医疗保险和医疗补助计划中的价格，同 时下调面向消费者的直接售价。作为交换，诺和诺德获得了未来三年药品进口关税的豁免权，且其高剂量版Wegovy注射液将获得美国食品药品监 督管理局（FDA）的快速审查资格。 这一策略迅速转化为实际的市场优势。FDA已于12月批准了诺和诺德口服版Wegovy的上市申请，公司计划于2026年1月在美国正式推出该产品。 这意味着诺和诺德将在口服减肥药这一关键战场领先礼来约三个月，后者的同类产品预计要到明年3月才能获批。 受此消息提振，诺和诺德股价在近期交易中反弹超过9%。 尽管价格让步可能在短期内压制销售增长，但投资者正重新评估这家欧洲制药巨头的估值逻辑。 在整个2025年，由于临床试验结果不及预期以及礼来Zep ...

全球制药巨头礼来与诺和诺德正陷入一场激烈的竞逐，试图在低价仿制药涌入之前，抢占印度快速增长 的减肥药市场。 随着这一全球人口第一大国的肥胖药物市场预计在两年内突破10亿美元，两家公司正通过大幅降价、加 速产品发布以及聘请宝莱坞明星代言等激进手段，试图巩固其在当地的领先地位。 据路透社报道，为了应对礼来旗下药物Mounjaro在印度市场的先发优势，诺和诺德采取了激进的价格策 略，于11月将其减肥药Wegovy的价格下调了约37%，并加速推出了知名糖尿病药物Ozempic。诺和诺德 印度公司董事总经理Vikrant Shrotriya承认，为了提高产品的可及性，公司必须采取降价措施，并以此在 这一价格敏感市场中与对手抗衡。 相比之下，礼来主要依靠其早期进入市场的优势和高调的品牌营销策略。礼来不仅在销量上暂时领先， 还与宝莱坞知名演员合作开展社交媒体宣传活动，并发起针对肥胖认知的广告攻势。尽管Mounjaro的价 格并未下调且高于竞品，但凭借其更显著的减重效果声称，礼来目前在销售额上仍占据主导地位。 这场双寡头之争的背后，是紧迫的专利悬崖压力。包括Dr Reddy's、Cipla和Sun Pharma在内的20多家 ...

每日经济新闻 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 中泰证券指出，创新药出海从"叙事"进入兑现阶段，2025年License out总金额超1200亿美元。政策端全 链条支持创新药，首次增设商保目录，与医保形成"双轨制"支付格局。医疗器械领域政策扰动逐步出 清，高值耗材和医疗设备率先走出拐点，国产化率持续提升，其中医疗设备国产化率已突破87%。体外 诊断和低值耗材有望在2026年边际改善。原料药板块处于周期底部，多数品种价格筑底，伴随"专利悬 崖"到来，仿制药及配套API增量空间可期。消费医疗领域，中药、生物制品等内需板块有望逐步走出 低谷。AI+医疗领域政策密集发布，脑机接口被列为"十五五"重点产业，非侵入式产品商业化进程加 速。 创业板医药ETF国泰（159377）跟踪的是创医药指数（399275），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数聚焦于创 ...

Core Insights - Pfizer's stock has declined approximately 3% this week following the announcement of its financial guidance for 2026, which did not meet investor expectations [1] Financial Guidance - Pfizer anticipates total revenues for 2026 to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, reflecting modest growth from the revised 2025 revenue expectation of around $62 billion, primarily due to lower revenues from COVID products and the impending patent cliff [2] - The company expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.80 to $3.00 for 2026, a decline from the 2025 expected range of $3.00 to $3.15, influenced by the dilutive impact of recent deals and lower COVID revenues [3] Oncology Segment - Pfizer holds a strong position in oncology, with oncology sales accounting for approximately 28% of total revenues, which have increased by 7% in the first nine months of 2025 [4][5] - The company is advancing its oncology pipeline and expects to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines by 2030 [5] Product Development and Acquisitions - Pfizer is focusing on expanding its product labels and has in-licensed rights for new oncology treatments, including a dual PD-1 and VEGF inhibitor [6][7] - The company has reduced its dependence on COVID-related revenues, with non-COVID operational revenues improving due to key products and new acquisitions, which are expected to deliver double-digit growth in 2026 [8][9] Challenges and Headwinds - Pfizer is facing a significant revenue impact from the loss of exclusivity for several key products between 2026 and 2030, which is projected to reduce sales by approximately $1.5 billion in 2026 [15] - The company is also experiencing lower sales of COVID products due to decreased vaccination and infection rates, with expected COVID revenues around $5 billion in 2026, down from $6.5 billion in 2025 [12][14] Stock Performance and Valuation - Pfizer's stock has underperformed compared to the industry and the S&P 500, losing 4.9% year-to-date [17] - The stock is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 8.04, significantly lower than the industry average of 17.11 and its five-year mean of 10.41, indicating potential attractiveness for investors [20] Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, Pfizer's key drugs and new product launches are expected to help offset losses from patent expirations, with anticipated cost savings of $7.7 billion by the end of 2027 [26] - The company is viewed as a hold in investment portfolios as it rebuilds its pipeline in oncology and obesity, which could drive growth from 2029 onwards [27]

Group 1: Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is entering a clear upward cycle with significant growth opportunities in innovative drugs and the innovation chain, driven by supportive policies and a global expansion trend [3][10] - The Chinese innovative drug sector is increasingly favored by international capital, with a record high of 149 transactions in 2025, accounting for 11% of global transaction numbers and 29% of total transaction value [10][37] - The introduction of commercial health insurance into the medical insurance negotiation process in 2025 is expected to diversify the payment system for innovative drugs, enhancing their market accessibility [10][37] Group 2: Innovative Drugs - The upward policy cycle supports innovation, with the latest round of drug procurement entering a new phase of quality-price balance, as seen in the 11th batch of centralized procurement [10][30] - The global patent cliff from 2025 to 2037 is projected to create a gap exceeding $300 billion, prompting multinational corporations (MNCs) to pursue business development (BD) and acquisitions to fill this gap [10][45] - Chinese innovative drugs are positioned to capitalize on this trend, particularly in areas such as second-generation immune-oncology (IO) and next-generation antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) [10][50] Group 3: Innovation Chain - The innovation chain, including Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations (CDMO) and Contract Research Organizations (CRO), is benefiting from both domestic and international demand, with CDMO orders showing a positive growth trend [12][12] - The overseas biopharmaceutical investment environment is improving, with a notable increase in funding as interest rates decline, which is expected to enhance the overall industry cycle [12][12] - The life sciences service sector is witnessing a recovery, driven by increasing domestic research demand and improved conditions for innovative drug development [12][13] Group 4: Market Opportunities - The domestic market for innovative drugs is projected to grow significantly, with over 400 innovative drugs approved since 2020, indicating strong internal growth potential [62][66] - As innovative drug companies transition to profitability, there is a potential shift in valuation methods from P/Peak Sales to PE, attracting broader investment interest [66] - Key companies to watch include AiLisi, Yunding Xinyao, and Kangnuo Ya, which are expected to benefit from the commercialization of innovative products [66]

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is making a significant return to the GLP-1 drug market by acquiring the global rights to the oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist YP05002 from Huayou Pharmaceutical for up to $20.85 billion, marking a record for early-stage Chinese innovative drug transactions [1][2] Group 1: Pfizer's Strategic Move - After three failed attempts in developing its own GLP-1 drugs, Pfizer's acquisition reflects its urgency to secure a position in the competitive GLP-1 market, especially against leaders like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly [1][4] - The deal includes an upfront payment of $150 million, with potential milestone payments of up to $1.935 billion and future sales royalties [1] - This acquisition follows Pfizer's recent $10 billion purchase of Metsera, indicating a strong commitment to the metabolic disease sector as a core growth area [1][8] Group 2: Challenges in GLP-1 Development - Pfizer has faced multiple setbacks in the GLP-1 space, including the termination of clinical development for Lotiglipron and Danuglipron due to safety concerns and adverse effects [4][7] - The company has nearly exhausted its pipeline in the GLP-1 area, with only one candidate remaining in the II phase, highlighting the need for external acquisitions to regain competitiveness [7][8] Group 3: Market Potential and Competitive Landscape - The global market for GLP-1 drugs is projected to reach $95 billion by 2030 and potentially $120 billion by 2035, emphasizing the importance of this market for Pfizer's future growth [7] - Pfizer's CEO has indicated that weight loss drugs could become a major product for the company, with expected annual sales of $10 billion [8] Group 4: Rationale for Choosing Huayou Pharmaceutical - YP05002 is a fully proprietary oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist with demonstrated pharmacokinetic advantages in preclinical studies, making it a promising candidate [9][10] - Huayou Pharmaceutical's strong industrialization capabilities and established production credentials, including FDA certification, enhance the attractiveness of this acquisition [10][11] - The collaboration reflects a broader trend of Chinese innovative drugs entering international markets, showcasing the growing value of Chinese pharmaceutical R&D [11]

Much like pharmaceutical packaging, the most important part of this story is in the fine print. Last week, the US House overwhelmingly voted in favor of Congress’s mammoth annual defense policy bill, which would authorize $900 billion in military funding. Inside the omnibus package was the Biosecure Act, a piece of legislation targeting Chinese biotechs that could have unintended consequences. SUBSCRIBE:  Receive more of our free The Daily Upside newsletter. READ ALSO: Bigger Social Security Checks Top 2 ...