Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, specific ratings for some products are as follows: - **Bullish**: Jiao Coal, Coke, Ethylene Glycol [1] - **Bearish**: None explicitly stated - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Most of the products, including stocks, treasury bonds, gold, various non - ferrous metals, building materials, agricultural products, and energy - chemical products [1] Core Views of the Report - Domestic factors have limited driving force on the stock index, with weak fundamentals and a relatively policy - vacuum environment. Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations. Although there are positive signals in Sino - US economic and trade relations recently, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but caution is needed due to the possible repetition of Sino - US tariff signals [1]. - Different factors drive the trends of various commodities. For example, asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's warning of interest - rate risks restricts the upward space; the long - term upward logic of gold is solid, but it may fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by overseas variables in the short term, expected to fluctuate strongly, but be cautious of the repetition of Sino - US tariff signals [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning of interest - rate risks restricts the upward space, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Gold**: May oscillate in the short term, with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - **Yin**: Expected to continue to be strong in the short term, but beware of a pull - back [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US talks boost market sentiment, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand and volatile macro - sentiment may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, futures price is weak, and increased production pressure on the futures price, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Zinc**: Inventory increase on Monday pressures the price, and the subsequent downward space depends on the sustainability of social inventory reduction on Thursday [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term oscillation following the macro - environment, long - term pressure from primary nickel surplus, pay attention to inventory changes [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term bottom - oscillation, long - term supply pressure exists, pay attention to steel mill production arrangements [1]. - **Tin**: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply shows improvement, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production scheduling drops rapidly, futures premium over spot, and warehouse receipts increase [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Mine prices continue to fall, downstream procurement is inactive, and raw material inventory is high [1]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: In the window period of switching from peak to off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand balance, no upward price drive is observed, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation of iron - water peak, and supply may increase in June, pay attention to steel pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Short - term supply - demand balance, slight increase in production, acceptable demand, but heavy warehouse - receipt pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure of supply surplus, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Glass Film**: Supply and demand are both weak, with the arrival of the off - peak season, demand weakens, and the price continues to be weak, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Maintenance resumes, direct demand is acceptable, but concerns about supply surplus resurface, and terminal demand is weak, price is under pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price continues to weaken, and the futures price rebounds to repair the discount. It can still be short - sold, with the upper limit of the target price at 780 - 800 [1]. - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal, with the continuous decline of coal - entering - furnace cost, the price drops synchronously, expected to decline [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB released a May report with expected production + 3%, export + 17%, and inventory + 9%. There may be a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: A game between weak fundamentals and fluctuations of other oils, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The expectation of China - Canada negotiations is blocked, and there is a lack of key negative driving factors, beware of a rebound in the market [1]. - **Cotton**: Affected by trade negotiations and weather premiums in the short term, with strong macro - uncertainty in the long term, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil is weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio [1]. - **Wheat**: Supported by the purchase - support policy, with tightening supply and increasing demand, expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Soybeans**: The pressure of Brazilian soybean arrivals is mainly reflected in the basis and near - month contracts. The market lacks upward momentum, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Pulp**: Demand is light at present, but the downward space is limited, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Supply is abundant, demand is light, it is recommended to hold short positions or short after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the futures price is expected to be stable [1]. Energy - Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Affected by Sino - US calls, geopolitical situation, and summer consumption peak [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures - spot price difference has fully converged, raw material prices have fallen, and inventory has decreased significantly, expected to oscillate [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are loose, expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the support of butadiene maintenance and demand improvement in the long term [1]. - **PTA**: The tight situation has been alleviated, and short - fiber costs are closely related. Some factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, imports are blocked, and it continues to destock. It is expected to decline [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term tight situation has been alleviated, and short - fiber factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Styrene**: The speculative demand has weakened, the device load has increased, inventory has risen, and the basis has weakened, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Urea**: The daily production is still high, and the short - term export demand is expected to increase, and the market may rebound [1]. - **Methanol**: The domestic start - up rate remains high, inventory is increasing, and traditional downstream demand is weak, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **PP**: The support of maintenance is limited, orders are for rigid demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: Maintenance is about to end, new devices are put into operation, and the off - peak season is coming, supply pressure increases, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **LPG**: The price is weak, in a narrow - range fluctuation, and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. Others - **Three - cloud Line**: The market shows a strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly long - tested, and attention can be paid to 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1].

Report Summary 1. Market Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Domestic factors have a weak driving force on the stock index, with a weak fundamental performance and a relatively policy - vacuum situation. Overseas variables dominate the short - term fluctuations of the stock index. Short - term positive signals in Sino - US economic and trade relations are expected to boost the equity market, and the stock index is expected to run strongly in the short term. However, be vigilant about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs and be cautious about chasing up [7]. 3. Summary by Content Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.38, down 3.50bp; DR007 closed at 1.51, down 1.97bp; GC001 closed at 1.43, down 2.00bp; GC007 closed at 1.55, down 1.00bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.65, down 0.20bp; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.50, down 10.00bp; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.41, unchanged; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.50, up 0.45bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.66, up 0.25bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.51, up 11.00bp [4]. - The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were no reverse repurchase maturities on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 173.8 billion yuan [4]. - This week, 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature. After the bank assessment at the beginning of the month, the money market has become looser. The central bank uses medium - and short - term liquidity management tools to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity at the end of the year [5]. Stock Index Market - The CSI 300 rose 0.29% to 3885.2; the SSE 50 fell 0.08% to 2686.8; the CSI 500 rose 0.76% to 5805.7; the CSI 1000 rose 1.07% to 6219. The trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1.2864 trillion yuan, an increase of 134.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with chemical pharmaceuticals, biological products, medical services, household light industry, small metals, batteries, and diversified finance leading the gains, while only railway and highway, and precious metals sectors fell [6]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased. IF trading volume was 88,193, up 37.8; IF open interest was 242,722, up 6.7; IH trading volume was 44,361, up 27.2; IH open interest was 84,420, up 7.6; IC trading volume was 76,382, up 42.4; IC open interest was 220,628, up 6.1; IM trading volume was 172,233, up 27.4; IM open interest was 324,544, up 3.2 [6]. Inflation and Foreign Trade Data - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, with the same decline as last month, and decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month [7]. - In May, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 4.8% year - on - year (the previous value was 8.1%); imports decreased by 3.4% (the previous value was a 0.2% decrease); the trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars, compared with a previous trade surplus of 96.18 billion US dollars. Tariff policies continue to have a structural impact on exports, with direct exports to the US continuing to decline, while exports to non - US countries show a significant year - on - year increase due to "re - export trade", offsetting some of the impact of direct trade with the US [7]. Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods are provided, including the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but still in the expansion range [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories decreased by 5050 tons to 174325 tons on May 19, while SHFE copper inventories increased by 27437 tons to 108142 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [2]. - With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the reduction of high - level inventories, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, copper prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trend, and main positions shows a mixed situation, with the expectation of volatile copper prices [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of trade wars, but specific details of利多 and利空 are not fully provided [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [22]. Other Information - The data source of the report is Wind [10].

Domestic News - The China-US economic and trade high-level talks have made substantial progress, reaching important consensus, and both sides agreed to establish a China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism [2] - From January to April, the national railway completed fixed asset investment of 194.7 billion yuan [2] - In April, the retail market for new energy passenger vehicles grew by 33.9% year-on-year, while the overall retail market for passenger vehicles increased by 14.5% year-on-year [2] International News - Trump announced plans to sign an executive order that would immediately reduce drug prices by 30% to 80% [5] - OpenAI and Microsoft are in talks to unlock new funding and future IPO opportunities [5] - The fourth round of indirect talks between the US and Iran concluded, with Iran describing the latest nuclear discussions as "difficult but productive," and the US indicating that a new round of talks is expected to occur soon [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights significant recent developments in Pakistan and a major announcement from Putin, indicating potential geopolitical shifts [2] - It mentions a collective surge in Wall Street, suggesting positive market signals driven by two major favorable factors [2] - The article notes that six states in the U.S. have suddenly taken action, with implications for tariffs related to China, indicating a potential shift in trade policy [2]

Domestic News - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.7% year-on-year [1] International News - The Ukrainian Foreign Minister stated that Ukraine is prepared for an unconditional ceasefire for at least 30 days [2] - President Putin proposed to resume direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey on May 15 [2] - Former President Trump announced that India and Pakistan agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire immediately [2] - Following the ceasefire announcement, explosions were reported in the Indian-controlled Kashmir region, with both India and Pakistan claiming to have shot down each other's drones [2] - India's Foreign Secretary accused Pakistan of violating the ceasefire agreement and stated that India is taking countermeasures [2] - Pakistan denied India's accusations of violating the ceasefire agreement [2] - The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that military officials from India and Pakistan will engage in dialogue again on May 12 [2] Company and Industry News - High-level economic talks between China and the United States were held in Geneva, Switzerland [3] - Prior to the China-U.S. talks, China accelerated the replacement of American products [3] - A commentary from Xinhua emphasized that China will not sacrifice its principles to seek any agreement [3] - Nvidia informed its Chinese clients about plans to launch a modified version of the H20 chip in July [3]

Group 1 - The high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States commenced in Geneva, Switzerland [1] - He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, is leading the Chinese side in the discussions [1] - The U.S. side is represented by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market showed an upward trend on May 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for three consecutive days. The military - industrial stocks remained strong, and the AI hardware direction strengthened. However, sectors such as PEEK materials and gold declined. The market trading volume decreased to 1.32 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.28% to 3352 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.65% [8]. - In the futures market, different varieties had different price trends. For example, in the chemical industry, crude oil increased by 1.887%, while PVC decreased by 0.455%. In the agricultural products sector, straight fragrant rice increased by 0.928%, and cotton No. 1 decreased by 0.116% [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - China and Russia deepened their comprehensive strategic partnership, and the two leaders witnessed the exchange of more than 20 bilateral cooperation texts in multiple fields [7]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US economic and trade talks, stating that the US should correct wrong practices and cancel unilateral tariffs, and China will not sacrifice principles [7]. - The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the US reducing tariffs on UK - made cars to 10% and on steel and aluminum to zero. They also agreed to start negotiations on a digital trade agreement [7]. - The EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods and sued the US at the WTO over its tariff policies [8]. - OpenAI made a major personnel adjustment, with co - founder and CEO Altman focusing more on core technologies [8]. 3.2 Main Varieties Morning Meeting Views 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is stable, with limited speculation. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. - Oils and fats: The external market lacks support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. - Sugar: Affected by international sugar prices and domestic supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rebounds, paying attention to support and resistance levels [12]. - Corn: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is not advisable to chase long at the current price, and aggressive investors can try to go long lightly [12]. - Hogs: Spot prices are weak, and futures are range - bound. It is advisable to operate intraday [12][14]. - Eggs: Spot prices are weak, and the mid - term market faces pressure. Consider shorting in the far - month contracts [14]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The market price is stable, with high daily production and inventory de - stocking. The market may continue to consolidate at a high level [13][14]. - Caustic soda: The market fundamentals change little, and the 2509 contract may continue to operate at a low level [14]. - Coking coal and coke: Trading is weak, and they may oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: Prices are low due to factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy and trade agreements [16]. - Alumina: The spot price is relatively firm, and the 2509 contract may be in low - level consolidation [16]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The market sentiment is weak, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weakening. Pay attention to support levels [16]. - Ferroalloys: Manganese ore shows signs of stabilizing, and the double - silicon market is in weak oscillation [16][18]. - Lithium carbonate: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to operate in the range of 63,000 - 65,000 yuan [18]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock index: The index maintains a strong consolidation, and the strategy is to buy on dips. Consider arbitrage strategies [18][19]. - Options: For trend investors, it is advisable to defend. Volatility investors can buy straddles after the volatility drops [20].

Group 1 - Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 to 12 for high-level economic and trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [1] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference regarding economic and trade cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European countries, along with the fourth China-CEEC Expo and International Consumer Goods Expo [3] Group 2 - On May 9, a total of 13 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked, with a total unlock volume of 141 million shares, amounting to a market value of 1.447 billion yuan [4] - 28 companies disclosed stock repurchase progress on May 9, with 7 companies announcing new repurchase plans, and 6 companies having their plans approved by shareholders [5]