Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the five-year plans as a blueprint for economic and social development in China, highlighting their strategic guiding role in achieving modernization [1][4] - Since the founding of New China, 14 five-year plans have been implemented, each reflecting the historical development of Chinese-style modernization [2][3] - The transition from five-year plans to five-year programs since the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" marks a significant change in planning philosophy, focusing on comprehensive economic and social development [3][4] Group 2 - The "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" aimed at building a moderately prosperous society, while the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" aligns with the long-term goal of achieving modernization by 2035, ensuring continuity in development objectives [4][6] - The strategic orientation of the five-year plans is evident in their comprehensive approach, which includes environmental assessments, main objectives, and implementation guarantees, fostering high-quality economic and social development [5][6] - The recent introduction of the National Development Planning Law draft signifies a step forward in establishing a systematic framework for economic and social development planning [7][8] Group 3 - The five-year plans are designed to be stable and consistent, ensuring the achievement of long-term goals and efficient resource allocation, with legal provisions to prevent arbitrary adjustments [8] - The plans emphasize a people-centered development approach, incorporating public participation and reflecting the needs and opinions of the populace [8]

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关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 摘要 2025承前启后之年，"十四五"收官在即，"十五五"即将落地。当前"十五五"规划谋划情况如何、可能重点 关注哪些领域？本文系统分析，可供参考。 如何理解历次五年规划？是经济社会发展的重要中长期计划，完成度较高。 五年规划，是我国重要的中长期计划，主要对国家重大建设项目、生产力布局、国民经济重要比例关系 和社会事业等作出规划。 五年规划由"三级四类"构成；"三级"即国家、省、市县，"四类"即发展规划、 专项规划、区域规划及空间规划。 推动五年规划完成，主要依赖目标责任制，激励综合机制以及项目制等三类目标实施机制。 "十一五"规 划起，我国五年规划引入约束性指标与预期性指标。其中，约束性指标是中央政府在公共服务和涉及公 众利益领域对地方政府和中央政府有关部门提出的工作要求，纳入各地区各部门经济社会发展综合评价 和绩效考核。 五年规划相关指标通常涉及经济发展、科技创新 、民生、资源环境等领域，完成度较高。 从完成情况 看，"十二五"规划设定的24个核心规划指标中有23个完成，仅研发经费占比略低于目标的2.2%，为 2.1%。受疫 ...

推动五年规划完成，主要依赖目标责任制，激励综合机制以及项目制等三类目标实施机制。 "十一五"规 划起，我国五年规划引入约束性指标与预期性指标。其中，约束性指标是中央政府在公共服务和涉及公 众利益领域对地方政府和中央政府有关部门提出的工作要求，纳入各地区各部门经济社会发展综合评价 和绩效考核。 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 五年规划相关指标通常涉及经济发展、科技创新 、民生、资源环境等领域，完成度较高。 从完成情况 看，"十二五"规划设定的24个核心规划指标中有23个完成，仅研发经费占比略低于目标的2.2%，为 2.1%。受疫情影响"十三五"规划设定的25个指标中，科研经费占比、居民人均收入增速、单位GDP能源 消耗降低均略低于规划目标。 摘要 "十五五"将是怎样的五年？ 2035的关键五年，更注重高质量发展、改革和绿色转型 2025承前启后之年，"十四五"收官在即，"十五五"即将落地。当前"十五五"规划谋划情况如何、可能重点 关注哪些领域？本文系统分析，可供参考。 "十五五"是全面建设社会主义现代化国家征程中的关键五年。 "十五五"与"十四五"、"十六五"共 ...

Group 1 - The importance of a well-defined blueprint and the commitment to execute it thoroughly is emphasized, reflecting a long-term strategic vision in China's development [1][2] - The implementation of 14 five-year plans has significantly contributed to China's economic and social development, enhancing national strength and improving people's lives [2] - The current process of soliciting opinions for the "15th Five-Year Plan" involves extensive consultation, indicating a commitment to setting long-term goals amidst international uncertainties [3] Group 2 - The "nail-driving" spirit symbolizes a pragmatic and efficient approach to governance, highlighting the ability to set scientific goals and the values of responsibility, perseverance, and focus [3] - The successful execution of five-year plans is seen as a political advantage for socialism with Chinese characteristics, reinforcing the importance of strategic planning in governance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of formulating and implementing five-year plans as a key experience in governance and a political advantage of socialism with Chinese characteristics, guided by Xi Jinping's strategic thinking and practical requirements [1][10]. Group 1: Strategic Planning and Global Context - Xi Jinping has consistently highlighted the significance of strategic planning, having led the formulation of major development strategies during his tenure in local governance [2]. - The planning process must consider global trends and the evolving political and economic landscape, with a focus on integrating domestic and international cycles [3]. Group 2: Long-term Vision and Implementation - The necessity of maintaining a long-term perspective in planning is stressed, with a focus on aligning five-year plans with modernization goals for 2035 and beyond [5]. - The implementation of plans requires a systematic approach, including monitoring and evaluation mechanisms to ensure adherence to objectives [5][9]. Group 3: Addressing Key Issues and Enhancing Quality of Life - The planning process should focus on addressing prominent social issues and enhancing the quality of life, with an emphasis on high-quality development [7][8]. - The plans should prioritize common prosperity and ensure that development benefits are equitably distributed among the population [8]. Group 4: Coordinated Development and Policy Synergy - A coordinated approach is essential for effective planning, requiring alignment between various policies and the overarching development strategy [9]. - The article advocates for a unified planning system that enhances the effectiveness of various development initiatives and policies [9][12]. Group 5: Emphasizing People's Participation and Feedback - The planning process should incorporate public input and feedback to enhance its relevance and effectiveness, reflecting the principles of whole-process people's democracy [14][15]. - Continuous optimization of plans based on stakeholder feedback is crucial for achieving desired outcomes [15]. Group 6: Future Planning and Legislative Framework - The article outlines the importance of high-quality planning for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for thorough research and public engagement [16][17]. - Strengthening the legislative framework for planning is highlighted as a means to ensure effective implementation and governance [18].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of integrating top-level design with public consultation, marking a significant shift in the planning process compared to previous iterations [2][8]. Group 1: Importance of Five-Year Plans - The five-year plans are crucial for China's economic and social development, reflecting a long-term strategic thinking that is central to the ruling party's governance philosophy [3][5]. - The global interest in China's five-year plans has increased as the country continues to achieve economic breakthroughs, highlighting the plans' significant role in this success [5]. Group 2: Planning Cycle and Methodology - The five-year cycle is chosen for its balance between short-term adjustments and long-term vision, allowing for continuous policy updates and implementation of major projects [6][8]. - Market participants should focus on long-term opportunities within the plans rather than just new terminologies, as continuity in development goals is essential for identifying sustainable investment opportunities [6][7]. Group 3: External and Internal Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" faces more complex challenges than the "14th," including intensified great power competition, accelerated technological revolutions, and a restructuring of the global economic landscape [9][10]. - Domestic pressures, such as economic growth stabilization and demographic issues, necessitate a more nuanced approach in the new plan [9][11]. Group 4: Economic Growth and Consumption - The plan will likely emphasize expanding domestic demand, with a focus on boosting consumption as a strategic priority rather than a temporary measure [11][13]. - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area for growth, with policies aimed at enhancing employment and stabilizing the economy [13][14]. Group 5: Infrastructure and Investment - Major infrastructure projects will be a focal point in the "15th Five-Year Plan," with an emphasis on aligning these projects with new economic and social development goals [14][15]. - The plan will also address "soft construction," such as human capital investment, which is critical for long-term economic sustainability [15]. Group 6: Reform and Policy Implementation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will align with the broader reform agenda set by the 20th National Congress, focusing on practical implementation of reforms to enhance market competitiveness [16][17]. - Key areas for reform include improving the macroeconomic governance system and managing market expectations effectively [18][19].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of scientifically formulating and continuously implementing five-year plans as a significant experience in governance and a political advantage of socialism with Chinese characteristics [1][2] - The report from the 20th National Congress deeply elaborates on the characteristics, essential requirements, and major principles of Chinese-style modernization, highlighting the need for top-level design in advancing modernization [2] - The article stresses that the aspirations of the people for a better life are the ultimate goal of efforts, and that policies and development plans should align with the people's wishes and incorporate their insights [2][3] Group 2 - The planning for the "15th Five-Year" period must accurately grasp the phase requirements, focusing on national strength and the rejuvenation of the nation, while setting reasonable goals and measures for each sector [3] - It is essential to analyze and ensure that the goals and tasks are scientifically precise and achievable, while also coordinating planning to address key factors and improve quality and efficiency [3] - Local regions should develop their plans based on actual conditions, ensuring practical implementation and effectiveness [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality planning for Shanghai's "14th Five-Year Plan" in the context of the upcoming implementation of the "Shanghai Development Planning Regulations" [1][8] Group 1: Historical Context and Strategic Importance - Since the founding of New China, Shanghai has developed and implemented 14 five-year plans, divided into two phases: pre-reform (from the "1st" to the "5th" plan) and post-reform (from the "6th" to the "14th" plan) [2] - Shanghai's five-year plans have consistently aligned with national strategies, ensuring that the city's future development is integrated with central government directives and broader national goals [2][3] Group 2: Implementation and Achievements - Major industrial projects have been pivotal in Shanghai's five-year plans, contributing significantly to national goals in industrial output, foreign trade, and tax revenue, achieving ten national firsts [3][4] - Hosting significant events, such as the 2010 World Expo, has greatly enhanced Shanghai's urban development and international influence, showcasing the city's ability to leverage major activities for growth [5] Group 3: Innovation and Future Planning - The article highlights the necessity for Shanghai's future plans to incorporate innovative reforms and adapt to changing global conditions, with benchmarks set against leading global cities [7] - Shanghai's planning process has historically introduced new concepts and goals, positioning the city as a leader in national reform and innovation, particularly in the context of global economic shifts [7]

编者按： 中国经济前景光明，信心在哪里？底气在哪里？活力在哪里？《解码中国经济 ——12 位经济学家的思享 课》一书由《中国经济周刊》编写，特邀黄奇帆、刘世锦、董煜等 12 位著名经济学家，深入解读中国经 济未来走势。 2025 年是 " 十五五 " 规划编制的谋划之年。书中对今年这个关键节点的重要意义进行了解读。在作者看 来，五年规划和体制改革之间的深度互动，是中国发展奇迹的重要秘诀。以下内容为书籍节选，内容有 删减。 为什么2025年是关键节点 对于中长期发展，2025年是一个关键时间节点。 2025年是"十五五"规划编制年，既要实现"十四五"规划的收官，也要谋划好下一个五年的发展。 文 | 董煜 "十五五"规划 （2026—2030年）是我国迈向2035年基本实现社会主义现代化目标的关键五年规划。 一方面，2024年中国国内生产总值（GDP）站上130万亿元人民币的新台阶，2025年是"十四五"规划收 官之年，同时也是"十五五"规划的谋划之年；另一方面，全球经济格局正在经历深刻变革，数字化浪潮 汹涌澎湃。外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深，新旧动能转换的压力持续，中国经济大船更需顶风破浪 前行。 要为高质量 ...