Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - International crude oil prices have fluctuated significantly, affecting the PX trend. The risk premium has been fully reversed, and the PX price has fallen back to the level before the rally. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, with effective support from rigid demand. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise in the future depends on whether there are more unexpected factors [2]. - PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Its own fundamentals have weakened month - on - month, but there is no inventory accumulation. If the polyester production cut increases in the future, PTA will be relatively weaker [2]. - The supply of polyester bottle - chips may decrease, and the market liquidity is expected to tighten. The downstream terminal has rigid demand, and the restocking sentiment may improve [2]. - The polyester industry chain's demand is not optimistic currently, and it generally fluctuates with the cost. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On July 3, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $67.00 per barrel, down 0.67% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.80 per barrel, down 0.45% [1]. - **Naphtha and Xylene**: The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $577.38 per ton on July 3, 2025, up 0.90%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $728.50 per ton, down 1.49% [1]. - **PX**: The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $849.00 per ton on July 3, 2025, down 0.59%; the closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6740 yuan per ton, down 0.74% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4746 yuan per ton on July 3, 2025, down 1.00%; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4881 yuan per ton, down 0.87% [1]. - **PR and Polyester Bottle - chips**: The closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5894 yuan per ton on July 3, 2025, down 0.77%; the market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6000 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8875 yuan per ton on July 3, 2025, down 0.84%; the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6760 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, and bottle - chip factories remained unchanged on July 3, 2025, at 78.98%, 76.84%, 88.52%, and 75.15% respectively. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms decreased by 3.73 percentage points to 61.22% [1]. - The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips were 33.00%, 46.00%, and 51.00% respectively on July 3, 2025. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament decreased by 7.00 percentage points, and that of polyester staple fiber decreased by 14.00 percentage points, while that of polyester chips increased by 20.00 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - The US - Vietnam trade agreement and Trump's tariff statement have boosted market sentiment. The recent sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected the PX trend, and the PX price has fallen back. The PX inventory is at a historical low, and the bottom support is relatively stable [2]. - The PTA spot market atmosphere is not good, the spot basis continues to weaken, and the PTA inventory is in a downward channel in absolute terms but at a near - five - year high in relative terms. The polyester production cut plan is limited, and the PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market price has declined. The supply side of bottle - chips may reduce production, and the downstream terminal has rigid demand [2]. Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation. The TA2509 contract closed at 4746 yuan per ton (-0.67%) with a daily trading volume of 1.06 million lots. PX is affected by maintenance news, and the PX2509 contract closed at 6740 yuan per ton (-0.30%) with a daily trading volume of 222,900 lots. PR follows the cost, and the 2509 contract closed at 5894 yuan per ton (-0.47%) with a daily trading volume of 47,000 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain currently has an unfavorable demand outlook and generally fluctuates with costs. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On June 30, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $65.11 per barrel, down 0.63% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $67.61 per barrel, down 0.24% [1]. - **Upstream**: On June 27, 2025, the spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $569.75 per ton, up 0.18%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $728.50 per ton, up 0.41%. On June 30, the spot price of p - xylene PX CFR China's main port was $874 per ton, up 0.85% [1]. - **PTA**: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,798 yuan per ton, up 0.42%; the settlement price was 4,824 yuan per ton, up 1.17%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 5,047 yuan per ton, up 0.52% [1]. - **PX**: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,796 yuan per ton, up 0.65%; the settlement price was 6,826 yuan per ton, up 1.46%. The spot price of domestic p - xylene was 6,836 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - **PR**: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,936 yuan per ton, up 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,956 yuan per ton, up 0.47%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 6,040 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: On June 30, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,950 yuan per ton, down 1.10%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,325 yuan per ton, down 0.68%; the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6,765 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [2]. Spread Information - On June 30, 2025, the near - far month spread of PTA was 192 yuan per ton, a decrease of 32 yuan; the basis was 252 yuan per ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The PXN spread was $304.25 per ton, up 2.12%; the PX - MX spread was $145.50 per ton, up 3.07% [1]. Production and Sales Information - On June 30, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 31%, down 19 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 40%, down 14 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 70%, up 8 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - International crude oil prices fluctuated significantly recently, affecting the trend of PX. The risk premium has been fully reversed, and the PX price is close to the level before the rally. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the rigid demand provides effective support. PTA will have new device put into operation in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, so the bottom support is relatively stable [2]. - The PX market was strong during the session, and the cost supported PTA. However, due to concerns about downstream polyester production cuts, the PTA spot basis weakened. After the conflict ended, the oil price reversed the risk premium, and polyester products will follow the decline. The absolute value of PTA inventory is in a downward channel, but the relative value is at a near - five - year high, and the situation of strong near - term and weak far - term is difficult to change [2].