1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - With major macro - events settled this week and reduced uncertainties, the market will return to the industrial logic. For coking coal, the long - term agreement price of major mines in Shanxi has increased, the spot price is firm, the mine - end production recovery is slow, and downstream replenishment is enthusiastic. For coke, the fifth round of spot price increase has been implemented, and further price increase requires an increase in downstream steel prices. The demand for coke remains resilient, and the coking enterprise inventory is continuously decreasing [4] - Last week, the market dropped sharply due to exchange supervision and under - expected macro - events. The coking coal market may see a battle between long and short positions in the future, which will determine the short - term trend. It is recommended to move J09 and JM09 long positions to far - month contracts and hold them with a light position, and then add positions opportunistically [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Related News - In August, the railway long - term agreement prices of major mines in Shanxi increased. The price of main coking coal rose by 150 - 200 yuan/ton, fat coal by 200 yuan/ton, 1/3 coking coal by 150 yuan/ton, lean coal by 130 yuan/ton, gas coal by 150 yuan/ton, and meager lean coal by 130 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price and Basis - The spot price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking coal was stable at 1150 yuan/ton, the active contract was at 1141 yuan/ton (+48.5), the basis was 29 yuan/ton (-48.5), and the September - January spread was - 135.5 yuan/ton (-28) [2] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 523 mines was 86.31% (-0.59), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 61.51% (-0.8), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.48% (-0.13) [2] 3.2.3 Inventory - The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was 248.26 million tons (-30.18), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 166.38 million tons (-9.23), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 803.79 million tons (+4.28), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 844.06 million tons (+2.85), and the port inventory was 282.11 million tons (-10.23) [2] 3.3 Coke 3.3.1 Price and Basis - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton (+50), the fifth round of price increase was implemented. The active contract was at 1615 yuan/ton (+30), the basis was - 34 yuan/ton (+24), and the September - January spread was - 60.5 yuan/ton (-21.5) [3] 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.48% (-0.13), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24% (-0.57), and the daily average pig iron output was 240.71 million tons (-1.52) [3] 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 46.52 million tons (-3.6), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 626.69 million tons (-13.29), and the port inventory was 215.1 million tons (+16.97) [3] 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - Move J09 and JM09 long positions to far - month contracts, hold them with a light position, and add positions opportunistically later [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - PX prices fluctuated and declined this week, with the absolute price down 3.2% week-on-week to $846/ton CFR by Friday, and the weekly average price slightly stronger, up 0.6% week-on-week to $856/ton CFR. PTA has new device commissioning plans in the third quarter, creating a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether PX profitability can continue to improve depends on more expected external factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain, with social inventory being depleted. However, it is currently the off - season for polyester consumption, and after a significant drop in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream开工 [2]. - The market has already factored in the impact of the maintenance of a 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China, and the spot basis is weak. Crude oil failed to recover Wednesday's losses, the bulk chemical market continued to be weak, and the PTA market declined. Currently, PTA processing fees are in a low - range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to new device commissioning expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season. In a warming macro - environment, PTA may experience an upward trend, but it is difficult to have a trend - type upward market without fundamental resonance. Currently, PTA supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to whether the rumors of maintenance of several PTA devices in early August will materialize. Polyester production cuts are currently on hold, and the开工 rate remains relatively stable. The negative feedback from weaving has only reached the polyester segment. From the perspective of industrial chain profits, the strong driving force from the cost side has caused the profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain to tilt towards the raw material segment again. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5,900 - 6,020 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The raw materials PTA and bottle chip futures are oscillating at a low level. Most supply - side quotes for bottle chips have been lowered, and the downstream terminal's intention to replenish inventory has improved. Recently, the supply - side operating rate of bottle chips has remained at a low level, and the market supply is sufficient. The downstream terminals are replenishing inventory due to low prices, and the market trading atmosphere may decline [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly. (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 1, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $67.33/barrel, down 2.79% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $69.67/barrel, down 3.94%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $604/ton, down 1.15%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $711.5/ton, down 1.25% [1]. - **PTA**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,744 yuan/ton, down 1.33%; the settlement price was 4,762 yuan/ton, down 1.65%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 4,751 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,740 yuan/ton, down 1.78%, and the CCFEI price index of overseas PTA was $641/ton (July 31, 2025), down 0.47% [1]. - **PX**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,812 yuan/ton, down 1.67%; the settlement price was 6,846 yuan/ton, down 1.92%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,881 yuan/ton, down 0.82% [1]. - **PR**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,918 yuan/ton, down 0.94%; the settlement price was 5,934 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 0.67%, and in the South China market was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 1, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,560 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,880 yuan/ton, down 1.09%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 0.67% [2] Operating Conditions - On August 1, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industrial chain was 77.29%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA plants was 74.06%, down 2.58 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester plants was 86.15%, down 0.13 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip plants was 71.93%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.83%, unchanged [1]. - On August 1, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 25%, down 2 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 56%, up 7 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 60%, down 12 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China started maintenance on August 1 for about 2 weeks [2] Trading Strategy - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton (- 2.02%), with an intraday trading volume of 678,200 lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton (- 2.41%), with an intraday trading volume of 141,700 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 5,918 yuan/ton (- 1.30%), with an intraday trading volume of 21,800 lots [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of "futures-stock linkage," highlighting how futures prices can serve as indicators for stock valuations in related sectors, particularly in industries with clear supply chains and smooth emotional transmission [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The photovoltaic sector has recently rebounded, with polysilicon futures rising over 40% from June 25 to July 18, leading to significant stock price increases for major companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., which saw gains of over 7% and 30% respectively [1]. - In the precious metals market, gold futures increased by over 25% this year, with stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold rising approximately 36% and 29% respectively [2]. - The black metal market also exhibited similar trends, with the black industrial chain index rebounding over 7% in early July, positively impacting stocks in the steel and coal sectors [2]. Group 2: Mechanisms of Linkage - The linkage between futures and stocks is more pronounced at the industry level rather than individual stock performance, with futures reflecting supply-demand expectations while stock markets focus on corporate profitability and valuation [3][4]. - The transmission mechanism involves both cost-profit transmission and market expectation dynamics, where futures prices can influence stock prices based on changes in raw material costs and market sentiment [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly adopting cross-market strategies, integrating commodity trading advisors (CTA) and quantitative factors to create a linked strategy system across markets [6][7]. - The article suggests potential investment opportunities in the black metal sector, particularly with anticipated production limits and macroeconomic factors that could influence stock performance [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of international crude oil are better than those of PTA, with effective support from rigid demand. PX has a solid bottom support due to its low inventory, but its future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PTA is expected to increase in supply, with a weakening market sentiment and a difficult - to - change situation of near - strong and far - weak. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to price drops. PTA has some support when polyester does not significantly reduce production, but may become relatively weak if polyester production cuts expand. The profit distribution of the industrial chain is tilted towards raw materials. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to be tight, and the market has increased buying enthusiasm. The polyester industry chain is expected to see PX, PTA, and PR oscillate, following cost fluctuations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 9, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $68.38 per barrel, up 0.07%; Brent crude oil was $70.19 per barrel, up 0.06%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $598.25 per ton, up 2.00%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $724.00 per ton, up 0.63%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $850.00 per ton, up 0.32% [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,718 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 4,714 yuan per ton, up 0.08%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,762 yuan per ton, down 0.33%; the settlement price was 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,748 yuan per ton, down 1.04%; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,755 yuan per ton, down 1.04%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $638.00 per ton, up 0.47%. The near - far month spread was 56 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan; the basis was 37 yuan per ton, down 58 yuan [1] - **PX**: The closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,724 yuan per ton, up 0.42%; the settlement price was 6,716 yuan per ton, up 0.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,890 yuan per ton, up 0.32%; the settlement price was 6,890 yuan per ton, up 0.32%. The domestic spot price of PX was 6,736 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $850.00 per ton, up 0.24%; the spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $825.00 per ton, up 0.24%. The PXN spread was $251.75 per ton, down 3.48%; the PX - MX spread was $126.00 per ton, down 1.43%; the basis was 12 yuan per ton, down 28 yuan [1] - **PR**: The closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,880 yuan per ton, up 0.24%; the settlement price was 5,874 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The market price of polyester bottle - chip in the East China market was 5,945 yuan per ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 6,000 yuan per ton, unchanged. The basis in the East China market was 65 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan; in the South China market, it was 120 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On July 9, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,700 yuan per ton, down 0.57%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,150 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,000 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,000 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,680 yuan per ton, down 0.30%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chip was 5,825 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chip was 5,945 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of PX in the polyester industrial chain was 78.98%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 86.87%, down 0.43%; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was not available, compared with 71.93% previously; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 61.22%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales - On July 9, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 43.00%, up 9.00%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 61.00%, up 16.00%; the sales rate of polyester chip was 49.00%, up 1.00% [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal; Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Important Information - OPEC+ actual production increase was weaker than policy expectations, EIA lowered the US crude oil production forecast, and the reduction of US API crude oil inventory supported oil prices. PTA will put into operation new devices in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in time. PX inventory is at a historical low, and its bottom support is strong. The downstream polyester factories have further reduced production, and the PTA supply is expected to increase, with a weakening market sentiment. The absolute value of PTA inventory is decreasing, but the relative value is at a five - year high. The polyester factories' actual maintenance in July led to a significant decrease in operation compared to June. The polyester industrial chain is driven by fundamentals, and the weakening supply - demand expectations led to price drops [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is weakly consolidating, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,718 yuan per ton (up 0.17%), and the daily trading volume of 867,400 lots; PX price is consolidating, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,724 yuan per ton (up 0.42%), and the daily trading volume of 177,100 lots; PR follows cost fluctuations, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,880 yuan per ton (up 0.17%), and the daily trading volume of 41,600 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will oscillate [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - International crude oil prices have fluctuated significantly, affecting the PX trend. The risk premium has been fully reversed, and the PX price has fallen back to the level before the rally. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, with effective support from rigid demand. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise in the future depends on whether there are more unexpected factors [2]. - PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Its own fundamentals have weakened month - on - month, but there is no inventory accumulation. If the polyester production cut increases in the future, PTA will be relatively weaker [2]. - The supply of polyester bottle - chips may decrease, and the market liquidity is expected to tighten. The downstream terminal has rigid demand, and the restocking sentiment may improve [2]. - The polyester industry chain's demand is not optimistic currently, and it generally fluctuates with the cost. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On July 3, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $67.00 per barrel, down 0.67% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.80 per barrel, down 0.45% [1]. - **Naphtha and Xylene**: The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $577.38 per ton on July 3, 2025, up 0.90%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $728.50 per ton, down 1.49% [1]. - **PX**: The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $849.00 per ton on July 3, 2025, down 0.59%; the closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6740 yuan per ton, down 0.74% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4746 yuan per ton on July 3, 2025, down 1.00%; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4881 yuan per ton, down 0.87% [1]. - **PR and Polyester Bottle - chips**: The closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5894 yuan per ton on July 3, 2025, down 0.77%; the market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6000 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8875 yuan per ton on July 3, 2025, down 0.84%; the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6760 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, and bottle - chip factories remained unchanged on July 3, 2025, at 78.98%, 76.84%, 88.52%, and 75.15% respectively. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms decreased by 3.73 percentage points to 61.22% [1]. - The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips were 33.00%, 46.00%, and 51.00% respectively on July 3, 2025. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament decreased by 7.00 percentage points, and that of polyester staple fiber decreased by 14.00 percentage points, while that of polyester chips increased by 20.00 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - The US - Vietnam trade agreement and Trump's tariff statement have boosted market sentiment. The recent sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected the PX trend, and the PX price has fallen back. The PX inventory is at a historical low, and the bottom support is relatively stable [2]. - The PTA spot market atmosphere is not good, the spot basis continues to weaken, and the PTA inventory is in a downward channel in absolute terms but at a near - five - year high in relative terms. The polyester production cut plan is limited, and the PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market price has declined. The supply side of bottle - chips may reduce production, and the downstream terminal has rigid demand [2]. Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation. The TA2509 contract closed at 4746 yuan per ton (-0.67%) with a daily trading volume of 1.06 million lots. PX is affected by maintenance news, and the PX2509 contract closed at 6740 yuan per ton (-0.30%) with a daily trading volume of 222,900 lots. PR follows the cost, and the 2509 contract closed at 5894 yuan per ton (-0.47%) with a daily trading volume of 47,000 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain currently has an unfavorable demand outlook and generally fluctuates with costs. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On June 30, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $65.11 per barrel, down 0.63% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $67.61 per barrel, down 0.24% [1]. - **Upstream**: On June 27, 2025, the spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $569.75 per ton, up 0.18%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $728.50 per ton, up 0.41%. On June 30, the spot price of p - xylene PX CFR China's main port was $874 per ton, up 0.85% [1]. - **PTA**: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,798 yuan per ton, up 0.42%; the settlement price was 4,824 yuan per ton, up 1.17%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 5,047 yuan per ton, up 0.52% [1]. - **PX**: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,796 yuan per ton, up 0.65%; the settlement price was 6,826 yuan per ton, up 1.46%. The spot price of domestic p - xylene was 6,836 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - **PR**: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,936 yuan per ton, up 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,956 yuan per ton, up 0.47%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 6,040 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: On June 30, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,950 yuan per ton, down 1.10%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,325 yuan per ton, down 0.68%; the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6,765 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [2]. Spread Information - On June 30, 2025, the near - far month spread of PTA was 192 yuan per ton, a decrease of 32 yuan; the basis was 252 yuan per ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The PXN spread was $304.25 per ton, up 2.12%; the PX - MX spread was $145.50 per ton, up 3.07% [1]. Production and Sales Information - On June 30, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 31%, down 19 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 40%, down 14 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 70%, up 8 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - International crude oil prices fluctuated significantly recently, affecting the trend of PX. The risk premium has been fully reversed, and the PX price is close to the level before the rally. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the rigid demand provides effective support. PTA will have new device put into operation in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, so the bottom support is relatively stable [2]. - The PX market was strong during the session, and the cost supported PTA. However, due to concerns about downstream polyester production cuts, the PTA spot basis weakened. After the conflict ended, the oil price reversed the risk premium, and polyester products will follow the decline. The absolute value of PTA inventory is in a downward channel, but the relative value is at a near - five - year high, and the situation of strong near - term and weak far - term is difficult to change [2].