Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the rapid decline in the previous period, the pessimistic sentiment in the market has been released. Coupled with a slight improvement in market expectations, the price has staged a phased rebound. However, the fundamentals remain weak, resulting in a lackluster price rebound [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Report Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated with relatively sharp price movements. In the spot market, the price of high - quality primary coking coal in Shanxi remained stable. Steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, and downstream may replenish raw materials after the price drop [2] Import Data - In recent months, China's coking coal imports have remained at a relatively high level. In November, China imported 10.7315 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports reached 105 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.687 million tons, a decline of 5.99%. In November, Mongolia's coking coal imports were 6.2441 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.38% and a year - on - year increase of 19.65%. High - frequency data shows that Mongolia's coal clearance remained high in December, with inventory increasing in the port supervision area [2] Supply Side - In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Last week, some coal mines in the main production areas resumed production after face - changing operations and increased production to meet the annual production targets, resulting in a slight increase in output. However, as it is the peak period for year - end coal mine maintenance, the increase in output may be limited. With downstream coke and steel enterprises starting to replenish inventory, the trading of coking coal has improved [2] Demand Side - Last week, the blast furnace hot metal output dropped to 2.2655 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 28,600 tons, which continued to suppress the rigid demand for raw materials [2] Future Focus - Pay attention to changes in steel mill blast furnace operations and coal mine复产 conditions [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The concerns about supply - side imports and import costs from the news have largely offset the previous price - decline pressure caused by oversupply. The market focus has shifted back to the supply - demand expectations for the first quarter of next year. Considering the impact of the cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere around the end of December, with the expected increase in coal demand and the expected decrease in supply, the prices of coking coal and coke futures have stopped falling, rebounded, and then rapidly strengthened. Although it is unlikely for the prices to rise sharply in the future, the previous contradiction of oversupply has been significantly alleviated through expected factors, which is beneficial for the overall price recovery. Investors should change their operation strategies in a timely manner [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On December 18, the main contracts 2605 of coking coal and coke futures strengthened significantly with large increases, recovering all or most of the decline since December 8. The J2605 contract closed at 1743 yuan/ton, up 4.75%, with a trading volume of 18,789 lots and an open interest of 25,313 lots. The JM2605 contract closed at 1126.5 yuan/ton, up 6.07%, with a trading volume of 1,700,451 lots and an open interest of 501,331 lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: On December 18, the daily KDJ indicators of the 2605 contracts of coking coal and coke showed a divergent and obvious upward trend, and the daily MACD indicators of both contracts had golden crosses. The ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1570 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in various regions also remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **News**: Starting from January 1, 2026, Indonesia will impose an export tariff on coal, but the specific tariff rate is unknown, with a previous indication of 1% - 5%. China imported about 2.4 billion tons of coal from Indonesia last year, accounting for about 44% of its total coal imports. There is an unconfirmed report that a large coal - using group will suspend the purchase of imported coal [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: On December 12, the second round of spot price cuts for coking coal was implemented. Independent coking enterprises have been profitable for four consecutive weeks, and the coke production of independent coking enterprises has increased for two consecutive weeks, but the growth rate has narrowed. Although the ports have been destocking coke for six consecutive weeks, the coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills have recently stabilized and increased. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently, and the 10 - day moving average of the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port reached 167,000 tons on December 6, an increase of 9.5% compared to the average since late November. The decline in the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has narrowed, and the steel mills' coking coal inventory has increased [10]. 3.3 Industry News - **Government Revenue**: From January to November, the national government - funded budget revenue was 402.74 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The central government - funded budget revenue was 39.38 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, while the local government - funded budget revenue was 363.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%, with the state - owned land use right transfer income decreasing by 10.7% year - on - year [12]. - **Coal Production**: In November 2025, the national raw coal output was 426.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 4.93%. From January to November, the cumulative national raw coal output was 4.40165 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [12]. - **Corporate News**: Orchid Science and Technology obtained a coal exploration license for the Sitou Block in Yangcheng County; Anyang Iron and Steel sold its equity in two subsidiaries; Wanneng Power indirectly holds about 3.5% of the equity of Fusion New Energy and will deepen cooperation; as of the end of November 2025, Shanxi had built 369 intelligent coal mines, accounting for more than one - third of the country; Inner Mongolia undertakes about 795 million tons of thermal coal supply tasks this year; Indonesia will impose an export tariff on coal; the steel industry in Iran faces a serious shortage of natural gas [12][13]. 3.4 Data Overview The report presents multiple charts including the spot price indexes of metallurgical coke and primary coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rates of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average hot metal output, the coke and coking coal inventories of ports, coking plants, and steel mills, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [15][18][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On December 16, the main coke contract closed at 1,514.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.34%. The position volume of the main contract was 19,800 lots, with a difference of -2,119 lots from the previous trading day. The spot market prices in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port showed different trends. Recently, the supply and demand of coke both decreased, and the reduction in demand was more significant, resulting in a weak fundamental situation. Without direct positive news from domestic important meetings in December, the market follows the fundamental logic. Affected by both cost and demand pressures, the coke futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [5][35]. - **Coking Coal**: On December 16, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,067.5 points, with an intraday increase of 1.33%. The position volume of the main contract was 510,400 lots, with a difference of +16,390 lots from the previous trading day. The latest price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 3.0% week-on-week. Recently, the coking coal production decreased slightly, while the import of Mongolian coal increased significantly, providing limited support on the supply side. Coupled with the weakening of downstream coke production, the fundamentals have not improved significantly. However, with the market's reaction to the supply - side pressure, the long - short game in the coking coal futures has increased, and the price has started to fluctuate at a low level [6][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - **Indonesia's Coal Export Tax**: Indonesia plans to impose a 1% - 5% export tax on coal from 2026 to increase national fiscal revenue and optimize the tax structure without weakening its international competitiveness in coal [8]. - **Stable Coking Coal Price in Linfen Anze**: On December 16, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable. The price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal was 1,500 yuan/ton. Due to the significant increase in the auction price of similar coal in the surrounding area and the reduction in regional supply, some coal washing enterprises raised their quotes to 1,600 yuan/ton, but no transactions were made [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Change Compared to the Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,570 yuan/ton | 0.00% | -5.99% | -7.10% | -9.77% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,430 yuan/ton | -0.69% | -1.38% | -11.73% | -12.27% | | Coking Coal (Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port) | 1,125 yuan/ton | -3.02% | -12.11% | -4.66% | -8.91% | | Coking Coal (Australian - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.68% | -6.37% | -1.34% | -4.55% | | Coking Coal (Shanxi - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,650 yuan/ton | 0.00% | -3.51% | 7.84% | -2.37% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position Volume | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,514.5 | 1.34% | 1,532.0 | 1,475.0 | 16,790 | -3,806 | 19,821 | -2,119 | | Coking Coal | | 1,067.5 | 1.33% | 1,077.0 | 1,037.5 | 1,163,886 | -328,578 | 510,423 | 16,390 | [13] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2020 to 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization rate) [28][30][34]. Market Outlook - The outlook for coke and coking coal is the same as the core views, with coke futures expected to fluctuate at a low level due to cost and demand pressures, and coking coal futures showing increased long - short game and low - level fluctuations [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - Raw material demand remains relatively high, but coal mine production cuts are lower than expected, leading to a slight inventory build - up at mines and dragging down the market. In the short - term, market sentiment is still volatile, and coking coal and coke prices will fluctuate [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Logic - Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated. The 09 contract entered the delivery month with weak buying and delivery interest, so the futures price moved from premium to flat or discount, dragging down other contracts. On the spot side, some high - priced coal resources had weak sales, and prices were stable with a downward trend. Last week, Hebei coke enterprises initiated the 8th price increase, but most steel mills didn't respond, and some planned price cuts, resulting in a market game [3] - Last week, coal mines in Shanxi's main production areas cut production due to geological issues in Lvliang and stricter safety inspections in Linfen. Next week, coal production is likely to rise slightly, but before September 3, main production areas will focus on safety, and some mines may have short - term production cuts [3] - Steel mills' profitability rate remains above 60%, with low willingness to cut production. During the parade, steel mills around Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei are expected to cut production from August 31 to September 3, with a 40% reduction, lower than previous similar events. They are expected to resume production after September 4 [3] Attention Points - Pay attention to changes in steel mill blast furnace operations and coal mine复产情况 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - With major macro - events settled this week and reduced uncertainties, the market will return to the industrial logic. For coking coal, the long - term agreement price of major mines in Shanxi has increased, the spot price is firm, the mine - end production recovery is slow, and downstream replenishment is enthusiastic. For coke, the fifth round of spot price increase has been implemented, and further price increase requires an increase in downstream steel prices. The demand for coke remains resilient, and the coking enterprise inventory is continuously decreasing [4] - Last week, the market dropped sharply due to exchange supervision and under - expected macro - events. The coking coal market may see a battle between long and short positions in the future, which will determine the short - term trend. It is recommended to move J09 and JM09 long positions to far - month contracts and hold them with a light position, and then add positions opportunistically [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Related News - In August, the railway long - term agreement prices of major mines in Shanxi increased. The price of main coking coal rose by 150 - 200 yuan/ton, fat coal by 200 yuan/ton, 1/3 coking coal by 150 yuan/ton, lean coal by 130 yuan/ton, gas coal by 150 yuan/ton, and meager lean coal by 130 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price and Basis - The spot price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking coal was stable at 1150 yuan/ton, the active contract was at 1141 yuan/ton (+48.5), the basis was 29 yuan/ton (-48.5), and the September - January spread was - 135.5 yuan/ton (-28) [2] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 523 mines was 86.31% (-0.59), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 61.51% (-0.8), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.48% (-0.13) [2] 3.2.3 Inventory - The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was 248.26 million tons (-30.18), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 166.38 million tons (-9.23), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 803.79 million tons (+4.28), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 844.06 million tons (+2.85), and the port inventory was 282.11 million tons (-10.23) [2] 3.3 Coke 3.3.1 Price and Basis - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton (+50), the fifth round of price increase was implemented. The active contract was at 1615 yuan/ton (+30), the basis was - 34 yuan/ton (+24), and the September - January spread was - 60.5 yuan/ton (-21.5) [3] 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.48% (-0.13), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24% (-0.57), and the daily average pig iron output was 240.71 million tons (-1.52) [3] 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 46.52 million tons (-3.6), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 626.69 million tons (-13.29), and the port inventory was 215.1 million tons (+16.97) [3] 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - Move J09 and JM09 long positions to far - month contracts, hold them with a light position, and add positions opportunistically later [5]