Report Industry Investment Ratings - L - Oscillatory [1] - PP - Oscillatory [1] - PVC - Weak [1] - PTA/PX - Cautiously Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol - Bullish [5] - Methanol - Cautiously Bullish [5] - Urea - Bullish [5] - Caustic Soda - Weak [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the investment prospects of multiple chemical products, taking into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and policy impacts. Each product's market situation is unique, with some showing potential for upward movement while others are expected to remain stable or weak [1][4][5]. Summaries by Product L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 8,614 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from the previous day. The basis of L05 was -124 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 149 yuan/ton. Social inventory increased counter - seasonally [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply contraction intensified, geopolitical conflicts eased, and the market was in high - level consolidation. New plant overhauls in domestic petrochemicals increased the parking ratio, and the supply - demand pattern was gradually tightening, providing support at the bottom of the market [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 9,103 yuan/ton, down 1.8% from the previous day. The basis of PP05 was 75 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 366 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Basic Logic**: PDH cost support was strong, supply contraction continued, and the supply - demand pattern was improving. PDH profit still had room for upward repair. In the short term, it was mainly affected by geopolitical factors [12]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5,353 yuan/ton, down 3.6% from the previous day. The basis of V05 was -133 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was -106 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply had a slow growth trend, and fundamental drivers were weak. There was a divergence in the start - up of ethylene and calcium carbide processes. High inventory and weak basis limited the upward space of the market [16]. PTA/PX - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,778 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan from the previous day. The PXN was 106.2 dollars/ton, down 123 dollars [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts persisted, and the Strait of Hormuz was substantially blocked. TA valuation was high, and supply and demand were slightly loose. The market was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [18]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 5,279 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan from the previous day. The basis of EG05 was -129 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was 146 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts showed no obvious signs of easing. Domestic and overseas plants were continuously reducing their loads. Import volume was expected to decrease in March - April, and inventory pressure was expected to ease [20]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol market showed a back - structure, with a weakening basis and monthly spread. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation was high, and the fundamental outlook was improving. Supply was increasing domestically and decreasing overseas, and downstream demand was weakly stable. Port inventory was accelerating its decline, with stable cost support [23]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,877 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The basis of Shandong small - particle urea was 23 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea was large, but exports were restricted before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply was still at a high level, demand was recovering, and the market was expected to fluctuate within a range. The cost side provided support [25][26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,340 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The basis of SH05 was -37 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was -177 yuan/ton [28][29]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong continued to increase, and the basis was approaching parity. Caution was advised when short - selling. The start - up rate was expected to continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring overhauls and export orders [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: ★, indicating a bullish bias, with a view of "oscillation" [2] - PP: ★★, indicating a strong bullish bias, with a view of "stronger" [2] - PVC: ★, indicating a bullish bias, with a view of "oscillation" [2] - PTA/PX: ★, with a "bullish" direction [5] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): ★, with a "bullish" direction [5] - Methanol: ★, with a "cautiously bullish" view [6] - Urea: ★, with a "bullish" direction [6] - Caustic Soda: ★, with an "oscillation" view [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products, including L, PP, PVC, PTA/PX, MEG, methanol, urea, and caustic soda. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each product, and provides investment outlooks and price ranges [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Product L - **Core View**: The social inventory is accumulating against the seasonal trend, and the market is in a high - level oscillation. The price range is expected to be between 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton [9][11] - **Main Logic**: Social inventory is accumulating against the seasonal trend, and ethylene is trading at a high level. New device maintenance in Lanzhou Petrochemical has increased the parking ratio to 20%. More device maintenance is planned before early April, tightening the supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [2][11] PP - **Core View**: Supported by cost, the market is oscillating strongly. The price range is expected to be between 9000 - 9800 yuan/ton [12][15] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances persist, and supply continues to shrink. New device maintenance in Yangzi Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical has increased the parking ratio to a historical high of 28%. The supply - demand pattern is improving, and there is significant room for PDH profit recovery. Attention should be paid to the downstream transmission progress [2][15] PVC - **Core View**: The inventory reduction slope has slowed down, and the market is in a wide - range oscillation. The price range is expected to be between 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton [16][19] - **Main Logic**: The ethylene price is high, and the FOB price in Tianjin has decreased. Inventory reduction is slow. The start - up of ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC plants is diverging. The high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market [2][19] PTA - **Core View**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost support, it is recommended to buy on dips. The price range is expected to be between 6620 - 7020 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical conflict shows no sign of significant easing. The valuation is high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The supply side has seen some recovery in domestic devices, while the demand side has a slight decline in polyester load. The inventory has decreased slightly from a high level. The cost side is affected by the geopolitical conflict [20][21] MEG - **Core View**: With reduced imports and cost support, the outlook is bullish. The price range is expected to be between 5280 - 5580 yuan/ton [22][23] - **Main Logic**: The valuation is high, and the term structure is in backwardation. Geopolitical conflicts have led to continuous load reduction of domestic and overseas devices. The inventory at ports is at a low level, and the social inventory is decreasing. The demand side has a slight decline in polyester load [22][23] Methanol - **Core View**: Geopolitical conflicts still exist, and the fundamentals are improving. The market is oscillating strongly. The price range is expected to be between 3250 - 3450 yuan/ton [24][26] - **Main Logic**: The valuation of the methanol main contract is at a nearly one - year high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The supply side has domestic load - increase and overseas load - reduction. The demand side has weak - stable downstream demand, and the traditional demand is seasonally warming up. The port inventory is decreasing rapidly [26] Urea - **Core View**: Although the fundamentals are weak, there is an export expectation, and the outlook is bullish. The price range is expected to be between 1880 - 1920 yuan/ton [27][29] - **Main Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea is over 3000 yuan/ton, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply side has a slight decline in production but is still at a high level. The demand side is recovering, and the factory inventory is decreasing. The cost side provides support [27][28][29] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: The start - up increase has led to a slight increase in factory inventory, and the market is oscillating. The price range is expected to be between 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton [30][31] - **Main Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, and the basis has strengthened. High inventory restricts the rebound space, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The start - up rate increased to 84.6% last week and is expected to continue to increase this week. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance progress and changes in export orders [2][31]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Strong bias [1] - PP: Strong bias [1] - PVC: Oscillation [1] - PTA/PX: Bullish direction [4] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish direction [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [5] - Urea: Bullish direction [5] - Caustic soda: Oscillation [1] Core Views - The geopolitical conflict has not significantly eased, and the supply - side contraction in the energy and chemical sectors continues to intensify. The cost of raw materials is strong, and the supply - demand patterns of various products are showing different trends [1][4][5]. - For some products, the high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market, while for others, the improvement in supply - demand fundamentals and cost support drive the price to maintain a strong or bullish trend [1][4][5]. Summary by Variety L - **Core view**: Strong bias [1] - **Main logic**: Geopolitical tensions persist, supply contraction intensifies, and ethylene prices are consolidating at a high level. Newly added domestic device overhauls increase the parking ratio to 20%, and more device overhauls are planned before early April, making the supply - demand pattern gradually tighten [1][10]. - **Market data**: L05 closing price is 8868 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 910,000 lots, down 11.6% [8]. PP - **Core view**: Strong bias [1] - **Main logic**: The cost of propane and methanol is strong, PDH profits are compressed to a historical low, and upstream overhauls continue. The domestic device parking ratio remains at a historical high of 26%, and the supply - demand pattern is improving, with high upward repair space for PDH profits [1][14]. - **Market data**: PP05 closing price is 9313 yuan/ton, up 2.1% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 1.13 million lots, down 17.1% [12]. PVC - **Core view**: Oscillation [1] - **Main logic**: The first - round price increase of semi - coke this year slows down the de - stocking slope of the upstream and mid - stream, and the market fluctuates widely. The shortage of ethylene raw materials intensifies the expectation of load reduction of global ethylene - based PVC, and some domestic ethylene - based devices start to reduce loads. The caustic - soda method starts to increase to the highest level in the same period, and high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market [1][18]. - **Market data**: V05 closing price is 5615 yuan/ton, down 0.6% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 2.39 million lots, down 9.9% [16]. PTA - **Core view**: Bullish direction [4] - **Main logic**: The geopolitical conflict has not eased, the valuation is high, and the term structure is in a back state. The supply - side domestic devices have recovered, and the PTA load is 79.9%. The downstream polyester load has slightly decreased, and the weaving start - up load has continued to rise, but the sales are average. The PTA inventory has slightly decreased from a high level, and the cost side is affected by the geopolitical situation, with the PX device slightly reducing the load [4][20]. - **Market data**: TA05 closing price is 6778 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan from the previous day; the PTA social inventory is 14.01 days, down 0.65 days [19]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Core view**: Bullish direction [4] - **Main logic**: The valuation is high, and the term structure is in a back state. Geopolitical conflicts have not eased, and domestic and foreign devices continue to reduce loads. The import volume is expected to shrink in March - April, and the port inventory is at a low level in the same period, with the social inventory continuing to decline. The polyester load has slightly decreased, and the weaving start - up load has continued to rise, but the sales are average [4][22]. - **Market data**: EG05 closing price is 5279 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan from the previous day; the MEG social inventory in China is 2.038 million tons, down 39,800 tons [21]. Methanol - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [5] - **Main logic**: The geopolitical uncertainty still exists, the valuation is high, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The supply - side domestic devices increase the load while foreign devices reduce the load. The downstream demand is weakly stable, and the traditional downstream starts to pick up seasonally. The port inventory is accelerating de - stocking [5][25]. - **Market data**: The methanol主力 is at a high level in the past year, and the term structure is in a back state [25]. Urea - **Core view**: Bullish direction [5] - **Main logic**: The price difference between domestic and foreign urea is more than 3000 yuan/ton, but urea exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply - side start - up has declined but is still at a high level in the same period, and the daily production is 214,700 tons. The demand side has recovered, the compound fertilizer start - up has continued to increase, and the industrial demand is improving steadily. The plant inventory is continuously de - stocking. The cost side has support, and attention should be paid to the urea export policy in the middle and late stages of domestic spring plowing [5][27][28]. - **Market data**: UR05 closing price is 1877 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day; the urea plant inventory in China is 700,500 tons, down 108,400 tons [26]. Caustic Soda - **Core view**: Oscillation [1] - **Main logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, the basis has strengthened, and high inventory restricts the rebound space. The start - up rate increased to 84.6% last week, and there are still plans to increase the load this week, with the start - up expected to continue to increase. The ECU profit in Shandong has recovered, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring overhauls and changes in export order volumes [1][30]. - **Market data**: SH05 closing price is 2442 yuan/ton, down 2.7% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 360,000 lots, up 0.3% [29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Callback [1] - PP: Callback [1] - PVC: Callback [1] - PX/PTA: Callback [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Callback [2] - Methanol: Callback [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [3] - Caustic Soda: Oscillation [1] Core Views - The geopolitical situation is the main factor affecting the market. The negotiation between the US and Iran is in the initial stage, and the geopolitical premium in the market is gradually being digested. The supply of some products is shrinking, and the cost support is strong. The demand side of some products is gradually recovering, but the growth rate is weak. Overall, the market is in a state of shock and adjustment [1][2][3] Summary by Variety L - **Core View**: Callback. The negotiation between the US and Iran is in the initial stage, and the supply contraction intensifies. The ethylene market is strongly volatile. With the increase in planned maintenance of domestic devices, attention should be paid to the sustainability of supply reduction. Geopolitical conflicts may gradually ease, and long positions should be stopped for profit [1][7] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of L01, L05, and L09 have all declined, with the L05 closing price dropping by 6.4%. The main contract position has decreased by 15.6%, and the weighted position has decreased by 10.0%. The trading volume has increased by 28.0%. The L05 basis is -128 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread is 182 yuan/ton [5][6] PP - **Core View**: Callback. The PDH profit has reached a new low, and the supply contraction continues. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost side still strongly supports PP. The domestic supply and demand pattern is improving, but recent capital has been continuously reducing positions, and long positions should be stopped for profit at high prices [1][10] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 have all declined, with the PP05 closing price dropping by 6.9%. The main contract position has decreased by 14.9%, and the weighted position has decreased by 10.1%. The trading volume has increased by 34.8%. The PP05 basis is -469 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread is 499 yuan/ton [8][9] PVC - **Core View**: Callback. In the short term, it mainly follows the oil price fluctuations. The basis has strengthened passively, and the cost support has improved due to the significant increase in calcium carbide prices. The shortage of raw material ethylene has intensified the expectation of load reduction of global ethylene-based PVC devices, and some domestic ethylene-based devices have started to reduce their loads [1][14] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of V01, V05, and V09 have all declined, with the V05 closing price dropping by 6.4%. The main contract position has decreased by 6.3%, and the weighted position has decreased by 3.1%. The trading volume has decreased by 1.6%. The V05 basis is -33 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread is -87 yuan/ton [12][13] PX/PTA - **Core View**: Callback. The geopolitical game has reached a critical node, and some long funds have left the market to wait and see. The TA valuation is relatively high, and the basis has strengthened. The supply side has seen domestic device load reduction, and the downstream polyester start-up load has increased, but the terminal weaving orders have weakened month-on-month. The PX fundamentals have improved, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [2][16] - **Market Data**: The TA05, TA09, and TA01 closing prices have all increased. The PTA spot processing fee is 317.8 yuan/ton, and the PTA factory processing fee is 332.8 yuan/ton. The PTA social inventory has decreased slightly [15] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Core View**: Callback. The geopolitical conflict has not significantly eased, and both domestic and overseas devices have continuously reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease in March and April, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease. The downstream demand is relatively good but weaker than the same period last year [2][20] - **Market Data**: The overall ethylene glycol start-up load is 66.45%, and the port inventory is at a low level in the same period. The polyester comprehensive load has continued to increase, but the production and sales are average, and the weaving orders have declined month-on-month [20] Methanol - **Core View**: Callback. The geopolitical game dominates the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and the overseas device load is low. The import volume is expected to decrease in March and April. The demand side is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating to be depleted [2][24] - **Market Data**: The methanol main contract is at a high level in the past year, and the basis and spread have weakened. The spot prices in the European and American methanol markets are relatively strong [24] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish. The domestic and foreign price spreads of urea are large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply side has seen a decline in urea start-up but remains at a high level in the same period. The demand side has recovered, and the factory inventory has continued to decrease. The overall fundamentals are relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in export policies [3][27] - **Market Data**: The UR05, UR09, and UR01 closing prices have all declined. The urea comprehensive profit is 188.12 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small particle basis is 29 yuan/ton [26] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Oscillation. The export orders have improved, and the price of high-concentration caustic soda has increased significantly. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has intensified the expectation of load reduction of ethylene-based chlor-alkali integrated devices at home and abroad. The domestic maintenance intensity has increased, and the factory inventory has declined from a high level. The profit of Shandong ECU has been repaired, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export order volume [1][32] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of SH01, SH03, SH05, and SH09 have all declined. The SH05 basis is -288 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread is -48 yuan/ton [31][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Bullish [2] - PP: Bullish [2] - PVC: Bullish [2] - PX/PTA: Bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Bullish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [3] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the situation in the Middle East, are the main factors driving the prices of energy and chemical products. Supply - side factors like device maintenance and reduced production due to geopolitical events, as well as changes in demand, affect the market trends of various products [2][3]. - Most products are expected to show a bullish or cautiously bullish trend in the short - term, but there are also risks and uncertainties, and investors need to pay attention to geopolitical changes, cost fluctuations, and policy adjustments [2][3][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 9523 yuan/ton, up 8.0% from the previous day; the main position increased by 11.0%. The spot price of LL in North China rose 10.5% [6]. - **Core Logic**: Following the short - term cost adjustment, the cost of ethylene remains strong. The shutdown ratio has increased to 15%, and more devices are planned to be shut down before early April. It is expected to continue the bullish shock before the raw material shortage is resolved [2][8]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 9793 yuan/ton, up 8.6% from the previous day; the main position increased by 10.5%. The PDH cost increased by 8.8%, and the profit continued to be compressed [9]. - **Core Logic**: PDH profit continues to be compressed, and the supply has room to shrink. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost side strongly supports PP. The shutdown ratio has reached a high of 23%, and the supply - demand pattern is improving [2][11]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 6251 yuan/ton, up 6.4% from the previous day; the main position increased by 0.6%. The inventory of PVC decreased, and the social inventory showed a turning point [13]. - **Core Logic**: The US dollar price of ethylene continues to rise, and the ethylene - based PVC production reduction drives inventory depletion. Geopolitical conflicts intensify the expectation of global ethylene - based PVC production reduction, and some domestic ethylene - based devices have started to reduce production. It is expected to be bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [2][15]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5870 yuan/ton. The PTA processing fee is around 280 +, and the PXN is compressed to around 65 + [16]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the recent market. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz keeps oil prices high. The domestic PTA device has reduced production, while the downstream polyester starts to increase the load, but the terminal weaving orders have weakened. The fundamentals of PX have improved, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [3][17]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: The overall valuation is high, and the basis is weakening. The port inventory is at a low level in the same period, and the warehouse receipts and social inventory continue to decline [21]. - **Core Logic**: The cost has increased, and domestic and foreign devices have reduced production. The demand is improving but the strength is weak. The expectation of import reduction is expected to be fulfilled, and the inventory pressure is expected to be relieved in March - April [3][21]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract is at a high level in the past year, and the basis and monthly spread are weakening. The warehouse receipts have decreased significantly [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and the overseas device load is low. The import is expected to decrease in March - April. The demand is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating depletion [3][25]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1841 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign price differences are large, and the comprehensive profit is 188.12 yuan/ton [27]. - **Core Logic**: Although the domestic and foreign price differences of urea are large, exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply has decreased slightly but is still at a high level in the same period, the demand has recovered, and the factory inventory has continued to decrease. The price is restricted by policies [3][28]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2634 yuan/ton, up 3.5% from the previous day. The export orders have improved, and the price of high - concentration caustic soda has increased significantly [32]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increase the expectation of production reduction of ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated devices at home and abroad. The domestic maintenance intensity has increased, and the factory inventory has declined from a high level. Pay attention to the spring maintenance progress and export order volume changes [2][33].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: ★★, Bullish [1] - PP: ★★, Bullish [1] - PVC: ★★, Bullish [1] - PX/PTA: ★, Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★, Bullish [5] - Methanol: ★★, Bullish [6] - Urea: ★, Cautiously Bullish [6] - Caustic Soda: ★, Sideways [1] Core Views - Supply contraction and cost support drive the prices of L, PP, PVC, and ethylene glycol to remain bullish. The prices of PX/PTA and methanol are expected to be bullish due to cost support and improved fundamentals. Urea prices are cautiously bullish due to the large domestic and foreign price difference and the supply - demand situation. Caustic soda prices are expected to move sideways [1][4][5][6]. Summaries by Variety L - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply contraction intensifies, and the cost - end ethylene remains strong. New domestic plant overhauls increase the parking ratio to 15%, and the planned overhaul volume in March increases. Geopolitical conflicts raise the price center, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][11] - **Market Data**: L05 closing price is 8818 yuan/ton, down 1.1% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 728 yuan/ton, down 26.4% [9] PP - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: PDH profit continues to compress, and supply has room for contraction. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost - end strongly supports PP. The current parking ratio is at a high of 21%, the supply - demand pattern is improving, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][14] - **Market Data**: PP05 closing price is 9019 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 259 yuan/ton, up 14.5% [12] PVC - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support is strong, and the reduction of ethylene - based production drives inventory depletion. Geopolitical conflicts exacerbate the expectation of load reduction in global ethylene - based PVC plants. Some domestic ethylene - based plants have started to reduce loads. The market is expected to be bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][18] - **Market Data**: V05 closing price is 5875 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 28.1% [16] PX/PTA - **Core View**: Bullish [4] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the valuation is relatively high. The supply side sees domestic plant load reduction, and the downstream polyester start - up load increases weakly. The fundamentals of upstream PX continue to improve, and the market is expected to remain bullish in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical changes [4][20] - **Market Data**: TA05 closing price is 6070 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan from the previous day; PTA spot processing fee is 317.8 yuan/ton [19] Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Bullish [5] - **Main Logic**: Cost increases and domestic and foreign plant load reduction. The import reduction expectation is expected to be fulfilled, and the port pressure is expected to ease. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March - April [5][24] - **Market Data**: The overall ethylene glycol start - up load is 66.45% (down 0.32pct from the previous period) [24] Methanol - **Core View**: Bullish [6] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and the overseas plant load is low. The import is expected to decrease in March - April. The demand side is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating depletion [6][28] - **Market Data**: The main methanol contract is at a nearly one - year high, and the basis and monthly spread are weakening [28] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish [6] - **Main Logic**: The domestic and foreign price difference of urea is large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Demand has recovered, and the factory inventory is continuously decreasing. The price is restricted by policies [6][31] - **Market Data**: Urea production is 21.04 tons per day, and the comprehensive profit is 188.12 yuan/ton [30] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Sideways [1] - **Main Logic**: The overhaul intensity increases, and the factory inventory declines from a high level. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increase the expectation of load reduction in ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated plants at home and abroad. Pay attention to the spring overhaul progress and export order volume changes [1][36] - **Market Data**: SH05 closing price is 2544 yuan/ton, up 3.2% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 391 yuan/ton, down 22.9% [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Strongly recommended (★★) [1] - MTO/PP: Strongly recommended (★★) [1] - PVC: Strongly recommended (★★) [1] - PX/PTA: Recommended (★) [4] - Ethylene glycol: Strongly recommended (★★) [4] - Methanol: Strongly recommended (★★) [5] - Urea: Cautiously recommended (★) [5] - Caustic soda: Neutral (★) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a tight supply of raw materials, causing the prices of most chemical products to follow the cost side and show a strong upward trend. The supply - side reduction and cost support are the main driving forces for the price increase. However, the market also faces uncertainties such as the progress of spring inspections, changes in export orders, and the impact of policies [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety L - **Core view**: Strongly recommended, following the cost side and showing a strong upward trend [1]. - **Main logic**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a reduction in the load of cracking units due to a shortage of raw materials such as naphtha or ethylene. The domestic parking ratio is 12.3%, and the planned maintenance volume in March has increased. The price center has been raised by the conflict, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][10]. - **Market data**: L05 closing price is 8431 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous day; the L05 basis is - 291 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread is 256 yuan/ton [7][9]. PP - **Core view**: Strongly recommended, following the cost side and showing a strong upward trend [1]. - **Main logic**: The attack on the South Pars field has caused some MTO and PDH units to reduce their loads, with the current parking ratio at a high of 22.3%. The PDH profit is still extremely low. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][14]. - **Market data**: PP05 closing price is 8628 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous day; the PP05 basis is - 18 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread is 472 yuan/ton [12][13]. PVC - **Core view**: Strongly recommended, showing a strong upward trend [1]. - **Main logic**: The geopolitical conflict has led to a continuous increase in the US dollar quotation of ethylene, providing strong cost support. The shortage of raw material ethylene has increased the expectation of load reduction for global ethylene - based PVC units. Some domestic ethylene - based units have started to reduce their loads. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][17]. - **Market data**: V05 closing price is 5735 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2.8% compared to the previous day; the V05 basis is - 55 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread is - 11 yuan/ton [15][16]. PX/PTA - **Core view**: Recommended, showing a high - level fluctuation [4]. - **Main logic**: The geopolitical conflict has not shown obvious signs of easing. The TA valuation is high, and the processing fee is around 300 +. The basis is strong, and the term structure is in a back state. The domestic units have recently reduced their loads, while the downstream polyester start - up load has increased (but the increase is lower than expected). The fundamentals of upstream PX have continued to improve, and the market is expected to improve in March - April [4][19]. - **Market data**: TA05 closing price is 6070 yuan/ton, with an increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the PTA spot processing fee is 317.8 yuan/ton [18]. Ethylene glycol - **Core view**: Strongly recommended, showing a strong upward trend [4]. - **Main logic**: The valuation has been repaired, and the term structure is in a back state. The geopolitical conflict has led to a significant reduction in the loads of domestic and overseas units. The import volume is expected to decrease in March - April, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease. The downstream demand has seasonally recovered, and the fundamentals have continued to improve [4][22]. - **Market data**: EG05 closing price is 4729 yuan/ton, with an increase of 76 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the EG5 - 9 spread is 65 yuan/ton [21]. Methanol - **Core view**: Strongly recommended, showing a strong upward trend [5]. - **Main logic**: The geopolitical game dominates the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The valuation is generally high, and the term structure is in a back state. The domestic methanol load has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, and overseas units have reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease in February - March, and the port inventory is accelerating the reduction [5][26]. - **Market data**: The methanol主力 is at a high level in the past year, and the term structure is in a back state [27]. Urea - **Core view**: Cautiously recommended, the market is under pressure [5]. - **Main logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the overall start - up load has continued to increase. The demand side has a weak reality and strong expectations. The social inventory has continued to accumulate. Under the background of "export quota" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea price has a ceiling and a floor. The market may be affected by the expectation of spring fertilizer use and export speculation, and the short - term trend is slightly strong [5][30]. - **Market data**: UR05 closing price is 1847 yuan/ton, with an increase of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the UR5 - 9 spread is 39 yuan/ton [29]. Caustic soda - **Core view**: Neutral, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Main logic**: Domestic exports are mainly 50% caustic soda, and the low - concentration caustic soda has insufficient follow - up increase, resulting in a continuously weak basis. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased the expectation of load reduction for overseas ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated units, but the domestic overall still maintains a high load. The plant inventory is slowly at a high level, and the spot price has insufficient follow - up increase. The basis has been rapidly compressed to a low level in the same period, and the industry can pay attention to the spot - futures reverse arbitrage opportunity. Attention should be paid to the progress of spring inspections and changes in export orders [1][34]. - **Market data**: SH05 closing price is 2523 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.9% compared to the previous day; the SH05 basis is - 43 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread is - 19 yuan/ton [33][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Bullish [2] - PP: Bullish [2] - PVC: Bullish [2] - PX/PTA: Cautiously Bullish [5] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Bullish [6] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Urea: Take Profits on High [7] - Caustic Soda: Sideways [2] 2. Core Views - **L**: Geopolitical conflicts persist, ethylene prices rise, and cost support is strong. Supply may decrease due to equipment maintenance, and the market is expected to remain bullish until raw material shortages are resolved [2][11]. - **PP**: High maintenance on the supply side, approaching peak demand season, and improving fundamentals. Geopolitical disruptions have affected some equipment, and the market is expected to be strong in the olefin sector [2][15]. - **PVC**: Rising costs of calcium carbide and ethylene, and the 5 - 9 spread is strengthening. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the expectation of production cuts in ethylene - based PVC, and the market is expected to be bullish [2][19]. - **PX/PTA**: Crude oil is oscillating strongly to make up for the supply gap. TA has a high valuation, and the supply side has seen some equipment cuts. Downstream demand is improving, and the market is expected to improve in March - April [5][21]. - **MEG**: Supply - side equipment has significantly reduced production both at home and abroad. Demand is seasonally recovering, and imports are expected to decrease. The market is expected to improve in March - April [6][24]. - **Methanol**: Geopolitical games dominate the market, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Domestic production is slightly down but still high, and overseas equipment has reduced production. Imports are expected to decline, and the port inventory is decreasing [6][28]. - **Urea**: The nitrogen fertilizer association implements the "supply guarantee and price stability" policy, and exports are difficult to liberalize before the domestic spring plowing ends. The market is fundamentally loose, with high production and weak demand, but there are expectations of spring fertilization and export speculation [7][32]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - concentration caustic soda lags in price increases, and the basis is weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased the expectation of production cuts in ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated equipment. The domestic overall load remains high, and the industry can consider reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [2][36]. 3. Summaries by Variety L - **Market Data**: L05 closed at 8496 yuan/ton, down 2.1% from the previous day. The L05 - 09 spread was 294 yuan/ton, and the L05 basis was - 287 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts drive up ethylene prices, providing cost support. Some cracking equipment has reduced production due to raw material shortages, and planned maintenance in March is increasing [11]. PP - **Market Data**: PP05 closed at 8671 yuan/ton, down 2.1% from the previous day. The PP05 - 09 spread was 492 yuan/ton, and the PP05 basis was - 2 yuan/ton [13][14]. - **Logic**: High maintenance on the supply side, approaching peak demand season. Geopolitical disruptions have caused some MTO and PDH equipment to reduce production, and PDH profits are extremely low [15]. PVC - **Market Data**: V05 closed at 5901 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from the previous day. The V05 - 09 spread was 16 yuan/ton, and the V05 basis was - 171 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Logic**: Rising costs of calcium carbide and ethylene, and geopolitical conflicts have increased the expectation of production cuts in ethylene - based PVC [19]. PTA - **Market Data**: TA05 closed at 6070 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was 200 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton [20]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the supply side has seen some equipment cuts. Downstream demand is seasonally recovering, but the increase is weaker than expected. PX fundamentals are improving, and the market is expected to improve in March - April [21]. - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, consider buying on dips, and conduct TA5 - 9 positive spreads [22]. MEG - **Market Data**: EG05 closed at 4729 yuan/ton. The EG5 - 9 spread was 65 yuan/ton, and the EG05 basis was - 57 yuan/ton [23]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to significant production cuts in equipment both at home and abroad. Demand is seasonally recovering, and imports are expected to decrease. The inventory pressure is expected to ease in March - April [24]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions [25]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The methanol market shows a back structure, with weakening basis and spreads [28]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Domestic production is slightly down but still high, and overseas equipment has reduced production. Imports are expected to decline, and the port inventory is decreasing [28][29]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side pressure is relieved, and imports are expected to decline in February - March. Pay attention to the restart time of MTO equipment, and the market is expected to be bullish driven by geopolitical conflicts [30]. Urea - **Market Data**: UR05 closed at 1847 yuan/ton. The UR5 - 9 spread was 39 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle urea basis was 13 yuan/ton [31]. - **Logic**: High production and weak demand, but there are expectations of spring fertilization and export speculation. Under the "export quota" and "supply guarantee and price stability" policies, the market has a ceiling and a floor [32][33]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on high for long positions and pay attention to export policy changes [34]. Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: SH05 closed at 2523 yuan/ton. The SH05 - 09 spread was - 19 yuan/ton, and the SH05 basis was - 43 yuan/ton [35][36]. - **Logic**: Low - concentration caustic soda lags in price increases, and the basis is weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased the expectation of production cuts in ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated equipment. The domestic overall load remains high, and the industry can consider reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [36].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Bullish [1] - PP: Bullish [1] - PVC: Bullish [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Bullish [21] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [24] - Urea: Take Profits on Upside [4] - Caustic Soda: Under Pressure [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts have led to supply shortages and cost increases in the energy and chemical sectors, causing prices to remain strong. The market is expected to continue its bullish trend until the raw material shortage issue is resolved [1][3][4]. - For some products, such as PTA, MEG, and methanol, the demand shows seasonal recovery, and the fundamentals are expected to improve in March - April [4][19][22]. - Urea has a relatively loose fundamental situation, with high production and inventory, but there are expectations for spring fertilizer demand and export opportunities, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4][30][31]. - Caustic soda has a weak spot market, with the basis continuing to weaken, and the industry can focus on reverse cash - and - carry opportunities [1][33]. Summary by Variety L - **Price Performance**: L05 closed at 8,677 yuan/ton, up 3.1% from the previous day. The basis of L05 was - 267 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 305 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Core Logic**: The spot price increase lags behind, and the basis weakens. The US dollar price of Northeast Asian ethylene continues to rise, providing strong cost support. Some cracking units at home and abroad have reduced their loads due to shortages of raw materials such as naphtha or ethylene, with a domestic shutdown ratio of 12.3%. The planned maintenance volume in March increases. Geopolitical conflicts have raised the price center, and the market is expected to continue its bullish trend until the raw material shortage is resolved [1][10]. PP - **Price Performance**: PP05 closed at 8,857 yuan/ton, up 3.0% from the previous day. The basis of PP05 was - 84 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 551 yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Core Logic**: Some PDH units have restarted, but the upstream still maintains a high level of maintenance. Geopolitical disturbances have caused some MTO and PDH units to reduce their loads, with a current shutdown ratio of 23%. The PDH units are still at a very low level. The market is expected to remain strong in the olefin sector until the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][14]. PVC - **Price Performance**: V05 closed at 5,849 yuan/ton, up 2.2% from the previous day. The basis of V05 was - 79 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was 0 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Core Logic**: The expectation of ethylene load reduction has not ended, and the 5 - 9 spread continues to strengthen. Geopolitical conflicts have not been resolved, and the shortage of raw material ethylene has intensified the expectation of load reduction for global ethylene - based PVC units. Some domestic ethylene - based units have started to reduce their loads. The market is expected to remain strong until the raw material shortage is resolved [1][17]. PX/PTA - **Price Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,070 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton, and the PXN was 280.3 US dollars/ton [18]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue without obvious signs of easing. The TA05 closing price is at a high level in the past year, with a backwardation structure. The upstream cost - end PX has risen more than TA, compressing the TA processing fee. The domestic PTA units have recently reduced their loads, while the downstream demand has a seasonal recovery, but the strength is weaker than the same period. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March - April [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bullish trend, hold previous long positions; pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks in the short - term; TA5 - 9 positive spread due to the expectation of geopolitical easing in the far - month [20]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Price Performance**: EG05 closed at 4,729 yuan/ton. The basis of the East China region against the main contract was - 57 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was 65 yuan/ton [21]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation of ethylene glycol has been repaired, with a backwardation structure. Geopolitical conflicts have not shown obvious signs of easing, and both domestic and overseas units have significantly reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease in March. The downstream demand has a seasonal recovery, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease in March - April [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bullish trend, hold long positions [23]. Methanol - **Price Performance**: The methanol market has a backwardation structure, with the basis and spread in Taicang weakening, and the warehouse receipts increasing significantly to a high level in the same period [26]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load has slightly declined but remains at a high level in the same period, while overseas units have reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease in February - March. The demand is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating its decline [26][27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously bullish. The supply - side pressure has been alleviated, the import volume is expected to decrease in February - March, and the inventory is expected to decline rapidly in March. Pay attention to the restart time of MTO units. Geopolitical conflicts still exist, and the crude oil price trend drives methanol to run strongly [28]. Urea - **Price Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,847 yuan/ton. The basis of Shandong small - particle urea was 13 yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 39 yuan/ton [29]. - **Core Logic**: The absolute valuation of urea is not low, with strong spot prices for Shandong small - particle urea. The overall profit is good, and the operating load continues to rise. The demand has a weak reality but strong expectations, with weak winter storage demand, low - level compound fertilizer operating load, and weak industrial demand. Urea and fertilizer exports are relatively good. The social inventory continues to accumulate. Under the background of "export quota" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea price has a ceiling and a floor [30][31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on upside. The market has expectations for spring fertilizer demand and export speculation, and the recent geopolitical conflicts have pushed up the oil and gas costs, causing the price to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [31]. Caustic Soda - **Price Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,547 yuan/ton. The basis of SH05 was - 107 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was - 5 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Core Logic**: The low - concentration caustic soda price increase lags behind, and the basis continues to weaken, with the market price falling after a rise. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have intensified the expectation of load reduction for overseas and domestic ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated units. The Tianjin chlor - alkali unit has rapidly reduced its load, but the domestic overall still maintains a high load. The factory inventory is slowly at a high level, and the spot price increase lags behind, with the basis rapidly compressing to a low level in the same period. The industry can focus on reverse cash - and - carry opportunities [1][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - L, PP, PVC, PX/PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol are expected to be bullish; urea is recommended to take profits at high levels; caustic soda is expected to be bullish [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs L - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Overseas ethylene cracking load reduction continues to expand, with strong cost support from ethylene. Some domestic devices have reduced load due to raw material shortages, and the domestic parking ratio has risen to 12.7%. The planned maintenance volume in March is increasing. Geopolitical conflicts have raised the price center, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][9] - **Market Data**: L05 closed at 8416 yuan/ton, up 2.2% from the previous day; the main contract basis was -146 yuan/ton; the L59 spread was 271 yuan/ton [7][8] PP - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Raw material and cost pressures have increased the expectation of device maintenance. Geopolitical disturbances have caused some MTO and PDH devices to reduce load, and the current parking ratio remains at a high level of 24.4%. The PDH device is still at a very low level, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][13] - **Market Data**: PP05 closed at 8603 yuan/ton, up 3.6% from the previous day; the main contract basis was 11 yuan/ton; the PP59 spread was 535 yuan/ton [11][12] PVC - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Factory inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the 59 spread is strengthening rapidly. Geopolitical conflicts have not been resolved, and the shortage of raw material ethylene has increased the expectation of load reduction for global ethylene-based PVC devices. Some domestic ethylene-based devices have started to reduce load. The market is expected to be bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][17] - **Market Data**: V05 closed at 5724 yuan/ton, up 1.9% from the previous day; the main contract basis was -54 yuan/ton; the V59 spread was -18 yuan/ton [15][16] PX/PTA - **Core View**: Bullish [4] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the release of strategic reserves by G7 countries is difficult to make up for the supply gap. Crude oil remains volatile and bullish. TA has a high valuation, and the term structure is in backwardation. The upstream PX fundamentals continue to improve, and the load of domestic and overseas refineries has decreased. The downstream demand is seasonally warming up, and the supply and demand are expected to improve in March and April [3][19] - **Market Data**: TA05 closed at 7010 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan from the previous day; the PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton; the PTA production profit was -125 yuan/ton [18] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Core View**: Bullish [4] - **Main Logic**: The valuation of ethylene glycol has been repaired, and the term structure is in backwardation. Geopolitical conflicts have not shown obvious signs of easing, and domestic and overseas devices have significantly reduced load. The import volume is expected to decrease in March and April, and the inventory pressure is expected to be relieved. The downstream demand is seasonally warming up, and the fundamentals continue to improve [22] - **Market Data**: EG05 closed at 4729 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan from the previous day; the main contract basis was -57 yuan/ton; the EG5-9 spread was 65 yuan/ton [21] Methanol - **Core View**: Bullish [4] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The valuation is generally high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The domestic methanol load has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, and overseas devices have reduced load. The import volume is expected to decrease in February and March, and the port inventory is being depleted rapidly [26] - **Market Data**: Not provided in the given content Urea - **Core View**: Take profits at high levels [4] - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation of urea is not low, and the spot price of small granular urea in Shandong is strong. The overall profit is good, and the overall operating load continues to increase. The demand is weak in reality but strong in expectation. The social inventory continues to accumulate. Under the background of "export quota" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the price of urea has an upper limit and a lower limit [30] - **Market Data**: UR05 closed at 1847 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan from the previous day; the main contract basis was 13 yuan/ton; the UR5-9 spread was 39 yuan/ton [29] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: The improvement in exports has led to a sharp increase in the price of 50% caustic soda, and the price of 32% caustic soda has followed suit. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased the expectation of load reduction for ethylene-based chlor-alkali integrated devices at home and abroad. The load of Tianjin chlor-alkali devices has been rapidly reduced, but the overall domestic load remains high. The factory inventory is slowly decreasing at a high level, and the spot price has not increased enough, resulting in a rapid compression of the basis to a low level in the same period. Caution is advised when chasing up, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export order volume [33] - **Market Data**: SH05 closed at 2604 yuan/ton, up 4.6% from the previous day; the main contract basis was -204 yuan/ton; the SH59 spread was -15 yuan/ton [32][33]