中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 霍尔木兹海峡通行不畅，油价短期易涨难跌。地缘：海峡短期通行不畅， | 原油 | 部分海湾国家原油库容不足，产量被迫下降；特朗普宣称将为船只提供保 | | | | | | | | | | | | 谨慎看多 | ★★ | 险或护航服务，关注后续落地情况；关注变量：中东地缘走势，OPEC+ | | | | | | | | | | | | 实际产量，美国原油产量。不建议追涨，建议期权双买策略。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 成本端提振，液化气走势偏强。成本端油价偏强，同时伊朗丙烷出口受阻， | 国内从伊朗进口丙烷占比 | 30%，成本端提振。供需双增，商品量与下游 | LPG | | | | | | | | | | | 谨慎看多 | ★★ | 化工开工率均上升，库存端偏利空，港口与厂库连续上升。不建议继续追 | | | | | | | ...

中辉能化观点 尿素 ★ 谨慎追涨 下行但仍处同期高位。需求端弱现实强预期，冬储需求走弱，复合肥开工高位下滑， 工业需求相对稳定；尿素及化肥（硫酸铵、氯化铵）出口相对较好，近期印度新一 轮尿素招标开启。社库持续去库（库存大幅低于去年同期）。在"出口配额制"及 "保供稳价"背景下，作为重要农资，尿素上有顶下有底。整体来看，尿素基本面 偏宽松，但市场存春季用肥预期及出口交易逻辑，需求端存支撑。节后延续震荡偏 强走势。 2 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，油价高位震荡，关注美伊谈判进展。地缘：地缘政治主导 油价，美伊谈判达成协议难度较大，地缘落地前油价偏强；核心驱动：供 | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线上会议，消息称 OPEC+将于 4 月 | | ★ | | 继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 美伊谈判尚未落地，跟随成本端油价高位震荡。成本端油价短期受地缘扰 | | LPG | 震荡 | 动波动加剧，地缘落地前成本端利好； ...

| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，外盘油价走强，节后首日内盘大概率高开补涨。地缘：地 | | 原油 | | 缘政治主导油价，美伊谈判达成协议难度较大，地缘落地前油价偏强；核 | | ★ | 看多 | 心驱动：供给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线上会议，消息称 OPEC+ | | | 将于 | 4 月继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘 | | | | 进展。 | | | | 成本端油价攀升，成本端利好，液化气震荡偏强。成本端油价短期受地缘 | | LPG ★ | 看多 | 扰动波动加剧，地缘落地前成本端利好；供需双增，商品量与下游化工开 | | | | 工率均上升；库存端偏利空，港口库存连续上升。 | | | | 春节期间现货信息停滞，预计节后开盘跟随成本端震荡偏强。节前标品装 | | L | 反弹 | 置陆续回归，基差持续偏弱震荡，两油石化库存降至 46 万吨，处于 5 年 | | ★ | | 同期最低位，预计节后石化库存累库至 90 万吨左右。后市检修力度并不 | | | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 2026年以来，化工板块表现亮眼——成交额稳步放大，机构资金持续加仓，芳烃、聚酯产业链等基本面 偏强的板块已率先反弹，主流化工品价格稳步上行。我国化工行业是否具备底部特征？马年伊始，在政 策助力、供给端收紧的驱动下，化工行业能否迎来新一轮上行周期？ 乙二醇 成本底部有支撑 自2025年起，随着裕龙岛炼化一体化项目、宁夏畅亿等装置相继投产，乙二醇产能增长通道重新开启。 进入2026年，巴斯夫等新装置的投产预期进一步强化了市场的远期供应压力预期。 从装置运行情况看，2026年年初至今，乙二醇行业平均开工率为62.55%，虽低于2025年同期水平，但 较2024年同期已提升2.14个百分点。值得关注的是，在产能基数持续扩大的背景下，截至2月12日当 周，全国乙二醇累计产量已达237.51万吨，同比增长1.37%，创下近年来同期高位。与此同时，春节前 后行业检修量维持在偏低水平，装置开工率延续高位运行。开工率高位运行、检修量偏低、产量创同期 新高的特征，已从源头对乙二醇期现价格形成实质性压制，也成为本轮高库存的根本原因。 受春节期间物流 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For PTA, recently it has turned to weekly inventory accumulation, with its processing fee and PXN compressed. Considering the improved cash - flow in downstream sectors, limited potential for PX supply increase at current valuation, and no obvious load increase in TA devices, the valuation is becoming reasonable. One can focus on phased positive spreads and long - position opportunities [1] - For MEG, after the recent compression of its valuation, the reduction in supply has further increased. Although short - term inventory accumulation continues, the certainty of inventory reduction in the far - month at the current price has increased. During the production - expansion cycle, its overall elasticity is limited, and one can focus on short - term put - selling opportunities [4] - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken, and it has entered the pre - holiday load - reduction stage. The absolute inventory pressure is not large, with low - to - medium valuation and weak driving force, and the overall contradiction is limited. One should pay attention to the situation of warehouse receipts [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Device and load**: Some PTA devices restarted, with the operating rate rising month - on - month. Polyester load continued to decline, and inventory continued to accumulate [1] - **Price and spread**: The basis strengthened slightly, and the spot processing fee weakened month - on - month. PX restarted in China, with the overseas load rising slightly. PXN continued to contract month - on - month, and both disproportionation and isomerization benefits weakened. The aromatics spread between the US and Asia remained weak [1] - **Transaction information**: The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions was 2605(-60), and Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device was under maintenance [1] MEG - **Device and load**: Near - term domestic oil - based production restarted while coal - based production was under maintenance, with the overall operating rate rising slightly. The arrival at ports was stable, and the port inventory continued to increase significantly at the beginning of next week. The forecast of arrivals during the week declined slightly [4] - **Price and spread**: The basis weakened slightly, and the coal - based production benefit contracted [4] - **Transaction information**: The basis of MEG spot transactions was against 05(-112), and Shanxi Woneneng's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [4] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device and load**: The pre - holiday maintenance of some devices continued, with the operating rate further dropping to 77.7%. The sales were weak, and the inventory increased month - on - month [4] - **Price and spread**: The spot processing fee improved month - on - month. The operating rate of the polyester yarn end continued to decline, and both raw material inventory and finished - product inventory remained stable. The benefit remained stable month - on - month [4] - **Transaction information**: The spot price was around 6594, and the market basis was around - 70 against 03 [4] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Price information**: There were daily and weekly changes in the prices of various types of rubber, such as美金泰混,美金泰标, etc. For example, the weekly change of美金泰混 was 25 [4] - **Spread and profit information**: There were also changes in various spreads and processing profits, like the spread between混合 and RU主力, and the processing profit of泰标 [4] Styrene - Related Products - **Price information**: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related products changed daily. For example, the price of EPS (East China general) decreased by 105 from February 9th to 10th [6] - **Profit information**: The domestic profits of ABS, EPS, PS, and other products also changed. For example, the domestic profit of ABS decreased by 80 from February 9th to 10th [6] - **Operating rate information**: The operating rates of EPS, ABS, and PS had their own trends over time [6] POY - **Cash - flow information**: The POY cash - flow had a certain trend from 2020 to 2026 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Oscillatory adjustment [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PP**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PVC**: Range-bound oscillation [1] - **PX/PTA**: High-level consolidation [2] - **MEG**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Natural Gas**: Oscillatory consolidation [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Low-level oscillation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are fluctuating, causing short-term oil prices to be oscillatory and slightly stronger. However, the oversupply pattern remains unturned, and with the arrival of the off-season for demand, there is still downward pressure on oil prices [1][9]. - **LPG**: Cost support is weakening, and the chemical demand is also decreasing, leading to a weakening of LPG [1]. - **L**: Upstream inventory has dropped to a low level compared to the same period. During the pre - holiday period, there is a vacuum in fundamental demand. With the decline in ethane cost and an expected increase in supply, the fundamentals are bearish [1][20]. - **PP**: Propane prices are rising, strengthening the cost support of PDH. Before the holiday, there is insufficient supply - demand drive. The current fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, with a parking ratio of 20%, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are still at a low level, providing cost support [1][24]. - **PVC**: The March Formosa Plastics quotation has increased, and the profit of Shandong ECU has been significantly compressed. The downward space for liquid caustic soda is limited. Although there is short - term export rush, the high - inventory structure is difficult to change, suppressing the upward space. It is expected to oscillate before the holiday [1][28]. - **PX/PTA**: The valuation level is reasonable. The supply side has some device changes, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost side of PX is in a weak balance. Although there is some inventory accumulation in January - February, the outlook is positive [2][30]. - **MEG**: The overall valuation is low. The supply side has an increase in domestic load, and overseas device maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February. However, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve from March to April [2][33]. - **Methanol**: The social and port inventories are decreasing. The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and overseas devices are expected to increase the load. The demand side has improved, and there is cost support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [3][37]. - **Urea**: The overall profit is good, and the start - up load is continuously increasing. The demand side is short - term strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Under the background of "export quota system" and "supply guarantee and price stabilization", the price has a ceiling and a floor [3][41]. - **Natural Gas**: The cold wave has weakened, and the export volume has increased. The short - term demand boost from the cold wave has been priced in, and the supply side is recovering, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of gas prices [6]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side of oil prices is oscillating and adjusting, and the basis is weak. The disk valuation is high, and the short - term trend is weak. The supply - demand is generally loose, and the demand has entered the off - season [6]. - **Glass**: The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. The enterprise inventory is slightly increasing at a high level, and the demand has entered the seasonal off - season. The daily melting volume has decreased, and more supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory [6][57]. - **Soda Ash**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and industrial hedging is exerting pressure. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to be under pressure [6][61]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices were oscillatory and slightly stronger. WTI rose 1.27%, Brent rose 1.45%, and the domestic SC rose 0.06% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term drivers are the repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with high uncertainties. The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and global crude oil inventories are accelerating the accumulation. The supply side: OPEC+ maintains the production policy, and the US crude oil production is increasing. The demand side: India's crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month. The inventory side: US crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline inventories increased, and distillate inventories decreased [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it is oscillatory and adjusting, with increased volatility. Pay attention to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The SC range is [465 - 485] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 9, the PG main contract closed at 4210 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decrease. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4470 (+20) yuan/ton, 4475 (+0) yuan/ton, and 4765 (-65) yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The trend is mainly anchored to the cost - side oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are rebounding due to geopolitical disturbances, but are under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, downstream chemical demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. The number of warehouse receipts has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost - side oil prices have increased uncertainties. The PG range is [4150 - 4250] [16]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract closed at 6721 yuan/ton, a 1.3% decrease. The L05 basis was - 131 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 56 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. During the pre - holiday period, there is a vacuum in fundamental demand. With the decline in ethane cost and an expected increase in supply, the fundamentals are bearish. The range is [6650 - 6850] [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract closed at 6691 yuan/ton, a 0.2% increase. The PP05 basis was - 56 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 32 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Basic Logic**: Propane prices are rising, strengthening the cost support of PDH. Before the holiday, there is insufficient supply - demand drive. The current fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, with a parking ratio of 20%, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are still at a low level, providing cost support. The range is [6550 - 6750] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract closed at 4981 yuan/ton, a 1.4% decrease. The V05 basis was - 221 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 113 yuan/ton [26][27]. - **Basic Logic**: The March Formosa Plastics quotation has increased, and the profit of Shandong ECU has been significantly compressed. The downward space for liquid caustic soda is limited. Although there is short - term export rush, the high - inventory structure is difficult to change, suppressing the upward space. It is expected to oscillate before the holiday. The range is [4850 - 5050] [28]. PX/PTA - **Basic Logic**: In terms of valuation, TA05 is at a relatively high level in the past three months. The supply side has some device changes, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost side of PX is in a weak balance. There is some inventory accumulation in January - February [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, but short - term drivers are limited. Pay attention to capital behavior. Buy on significant corrections for the 05 contract. The TA05 range is [5110 - 5220] [31]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract closed at 3959 yuan/ton. The East China basis was - 113 (-10) yuan/ton. - **Basic Logic**: The overall valuation is low. The supply side has an increase in domestic load, and overseas device maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February. However, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve from March to April [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the near - term contracts on dips. The EG05 range is [3680 - 3780] [34]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol main contract is at a high valuation level in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 250.9 (-15.9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 39 (-28) [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and overseas devices are expected to increase the load. The demand side has improved, and there is cost support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The January arrival volume slightly exceeded expectations, domestic start - up is at a high level, and port inventory has decreased. The demand side has stopped falling. Hold long positions. The MA05 range is [2219 - 2369] [39]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea main contract closed at 1776 yuan/ton. The Shandong small - particle basis was 4 (+2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall start - up load is continuously increasing. The demand side is short - term strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Under the background of "export quota system" and "supply guarantee and price stabilization", the price has a ceiling and a floor [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply and demand are both strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Be cautious about chasing up. The UR05 range is [1760 - 1790] [43]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On February 6, the NG main contract closed at 3.405 dollars/million British thermal units, a 3.16% decrease. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.030 (-0.600) dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 13.417 (+0.815) dollars/million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was 3821 (-75) yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is that the impact of the US cold wave has decreased, and the demand - side support is gradually weakening, leading to a weakening of gas prices. The cost - profit situation shows a decline in domestic LNG retail profit. The supply side: US LNG exports decreased in January, and the number of natural gas rigs increased. The demand side: Japan's LNG imports decreased in 2025. The inventory side: US natural gas inventories decreased [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the Northern Hemisphere winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, but the supply side is relatively sufficient, putting pressure on gas prices. The NG range is [2.900 - 3.400] [48]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 9, the BU main contract closed at 3324 yuan/ton, a 1.54% decrease. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3210 (-30) yuan/ton, 3290 (+20) yuan/ton, and 3310 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, causing oil prices to be oscillatory and slightly stronger. The cost - profit situation shows an increase in asphalt comprehensive profit. The supply side: The domestic asphalt production in February 2026 decreased. The demand side: The asphalt import and export volume increased in 2025. The inventory side: The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises increased [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high, and the supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to the import situation of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about geopolitical risks. The BU range is [3300 - 3400] [53]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract closed at 1078 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The FG05 basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 99 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Basic Logic**: Pay attention to the sustainability of supply reduction. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. The enterprise inventory is slightly increasing at a high level, and the demand has entered the seasonal off - season. The daily melting volume has decreased, and more supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair is realized. The FG range is [1030 - 1080] [57]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract closed at 1181 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease. The SA05 basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [59][60]. - **Basic Logic**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and industrial hedging is exerting pressure. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to be under pressure. Short - sell on rallies before further maintenance intensifies. The SA range is [1150 - 1200] [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Oscillatory adjustment [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Short position continues [1] - **PP**: Short position continues [1] - **PVC**: Range-bound oscillation [1] - **PX/PTA**: High-level consolidation [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Natural Gas**: Oscillatory consolidation [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Low-level oscillation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Short position continues [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Wait for the outcome of the US-Iran negotiation. Oil prices are adjusting oscillatory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the supply surplus pattern remains unturned. There is still downward pressure on oil prices [1]. - The cost support for LPG weakens, and the chemical demand also weakens, leading to a downward trend [1]. - The upstream inventory of L drops to the low level of the same period. During the pre - holiday fundamental demand vacuum period, cautious operation is needed, and the post - holiday verification situation should be concerned [1]. - PP follows the cost in the short term. The supply - demand is weak, and the supply pressure is relieved. The cost has support, and the subsequent demand verification situation should be concerned [1]. - The weekly export order volume of PVC weakens, and the social inventory reaches a new high. The long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [1]. - The valuation of PX/PTA is reasonable. The supply slightly increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the cost follows the oil price. The outlook is positive [2]. - The valuation of MEG is overall low. The supply increases, the demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory accumulates in the short term. The outlook is expected to improve in March - April [2]. - The social and port inventories of methanol are being depleted. The supply is slightly loose, the demand improves, and the cost has support [3]. - The comprehensive profit of urea is good. The supply is under pressure, the demand is temporarily supported, and the price is range - bound under the policy [3]. - The cold wave weakens while the export increases, and the natural gas price is in consolidation [6]. - The asphalt valuation is high, the supply - demand is loose, and the demand enters the off - season, so the price has room for compression [6]. - The glass market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. The inventory accumulates slightly, and the supply needs to be further reduced to digest the high inventory [6]. - The demand for heavy soda ash declines, the inventory rises, the supply is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices adjusted oscillatory. WTI rose 0.41%, Brent rose 0.74%, and domestic SC fell 0.36% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, waiting for the outcome of the US - Iran negotiation. The core driving factor is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the global crude oil inventory is accumulating rapidly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintains the production policy. The geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East rises. The US crude oil production increases, and the production of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield recovers. India's crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month. As of the week ending January 30, the US crude oil inventory decreased by 3.45 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 0.684 million barrels, distillate inventory decreased by 5.552 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve increased by 0.214 million barrels [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC+ regions. In the short - term, it is in oscillatory adjustment, and the fluctuation increases. Pay attention to the geopolitical progress in the Middle East. SC focuses on the range of [460 - 480] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 6, the PG main contract closed at 4,228 yuan/ton, up 0.74% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,450 (-20) yuan/ton, 4,475 (+29) yuan/ton, and 4,830 (-15) yuan/ton respectively [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The price mainly depends on the cost - end oil price. In the short - term, the oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, but is under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, the downstream chemical demand weakens, and the inventory accumulates [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to move down. In the short - term, the oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. PG focuses on the range of [4150 - 4250] [14]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of L01, L05 (main contract), and L09 increased by 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 192 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 52 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream inventory drops to the low level of the same period. During the pre - holiday fundamental demand vacuum period, cautious operation is needed. The cost - end oil and ethane prices fall, the linear production remains at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: L focuses on the range of [6700 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of PP01, PP05 (main contract), and PP09 increased by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 56 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 32 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it follows the cost. The off - season leads to inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. The supply - demand is weak, the shutdown ratio is 20%, the supply pressure is relieved, and the cost has support. Pay attention to the subsequent demand verification [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PP focuses on the range of [6550 - 6750] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The prices of V01, V05 (main contract), and V09 decreased by 1.3%, 1.4%, and 1.3% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 221 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 113 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Basic Logic**: The weekly export order volume weakens, and the social inventory reaches a new high. The chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit remains at a low level, and the bottom cost has support. The long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: V focuses on the range of [4850 - 5050] [27]. PX/PTA - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is reasonable. The supply slightly increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the cost follows the oil price. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in January - February, but the outlook is positive [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are expected to improve. Pay attention to the capital behavior. Buy on significant pullbacks for the 05 contract and control the position. TA05 focuses on the range of [5110 - 5220] [30]. MEG - **Market Review**: The prices of EG05, EG11, and EG01 changed. The main contract's basis was - 113 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 114 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic supply load increases, the overseas device maintenance increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory accumulates in the short term. The outlook is expected to improve in March - April [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the near - month contract on dips. EG05 focuses on the range of [3680 - 3780] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract of methanol is at a high valuation level in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 250.9 (-15.9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 39 (-28) [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and the overseas device load is expected to increase. The import volume in January is 125.9wt. The demand stops falling, and the cost has weak support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, and the geopolitical conflict is still uncertain [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The import volume in January slightly exceeds expectations, the domestic start - up maintains a high level, and the port inventory is slightly depleted. The demand stops falling. Hold long positions. MA05 focuses on the range of [2219 - 2369] [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: The main contract of urea closed at 1,776 yuan/ton, at the 77.8% quantile level in the past year. The Shandong small - particle basis is 4 (+2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread is 38 yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, the supply pressure is large, the demand is temporarily supported, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. Under the "export quota system" and "supply - guarantee and price - stabilization" policy, the price has a ceiling and a floor [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply and demand are both strong, but the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Be cautious about chasing up. UR05 focuses on the range of [1760 - 1790] [42]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On February 5, the NG main contract closed at 3.516 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.68% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.630 (-0.690) US dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 12.602 (-0.415) US dollars/million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was 3,896 (-18) yuan/ton [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold wave impact on the US natural gas price has gradually subsided. The domestic LNG retail profit increases. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand in Japan decreases. The US natural gas inventory decreases [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. NG focuses on the range of [2.979 - 3.522] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 6, the BU main contract closed at 3,386 yuan/ton, up 1.41% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,240 (-10) yuan/ton, 3,270 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3,310 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [49]. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the oil price is oscillatory and strong. The asphalt comprehensive profit decreases. The supply decreases in February, the demand increases in 2025, and the inventory rises [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high, and the supply uncertainty increases. Pay attention to the import of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about risks. BU focuses on the range of [3300 - 3400] [51]. Glass - **Market Review**: The prices of FG01, FG05 (main contract), and FG09 decreased by 1.0%, 1.5%, and 1.5% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 99 yuan/ton [53][54]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. The inventory accumulates slightly, the demand enters the off - season, and the daily melting volume drops. The supply needs to be further reduced to digest the high inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before the cold - repair is further implemented [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on the range of [1030 - 1080] [55]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The prices of SA01, SA05 (main contract), and SA09 decreased by 1.1%, 1.6%, and 1.6% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda ash declines, the inventory rises, the supply is under pressure due to the new production and maintenance. Short - sell on rallies before the maintenance further intensifies [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on the range of [1150 - 1200] [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Last month, PXN retraced due to lack of fundamental drivers and off - season pressure, while the sharp rise in crude oil compressed chemical valuations. Currently, PX load remains high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [11]. - PTA: Last month, PTA processing fees fluctuated at a high level. Subsequently, the supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber will decline due to the off - season. PTA will enter the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and mid - term opportunities to go long on dips should be grasped [12]. - MEG: Last month, there was a game between weak fundamentals and geopolitics. After a sharp rebound, it returned to weak - fundamental trading. Currently, the overall load is still high, and the port stockpiling pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently at a relatively low level, and there is a risk of rebound [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - **Market Review**: Prices rose and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 03 contract was 7,098 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan; the PX CFR price was 892 dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6 dollars. The basis was - 47 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7 yuan; the 3 - 5 spread was - 102 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, China's load was 89.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; Asia's load was 82.4%, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In January and February, the maintenance volume was relatively small, and the load was expected to remain stable [11]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In February, the maintenance volume was expected to be large, and the average load would remain stable [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of December, the social inventory was 4.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, there will be a small amount of stockpiling from January to February [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Last month, PXN decreased by 42 dollars, and as of February 4, it was 304 dollars. The naphtha crack spread increased by 12 dollars, and as of February 4, it was 93 dollars [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: Prices rose and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 05 contract was 5,144 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 58 yuan; the East China spot price was 5,100 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan. The basis was - 77 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 28 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 4 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 64 yuan [12]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In February, the maintenance volume was expected to be large, and the average load would remain stable [12]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the polyester load was 79.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. The terminal situation weakened, and it is expected to gradually recover around the Lantern Festival [12]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the total social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons. It is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee increased by 180 yuan year - on - year, and as of December 30, it was 345 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee increased by 127 yuan, and as of December 30, it was 345 yuan/ton [12]. MEG - **Market Review**: Prices rebounded and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 05 contract was 3,745 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 101 yuan; the East China spot price was 3,649 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 68 yuan. The basis was - 111 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, the EG load was 76.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The import volume in February is expected to decrease slightly [13]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the polyester load was 79.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. The terminal situation weakened, and it is expected to gradually recover around the Lantern Festival [13]. - **Inventory**: As of February 2, the port inventory was 897,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 172,000 tons. Ports are expected to continue stockpiling [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based profit decreased by 419 yuan to - 1,175 yuan/ton, domestic ethylene - based profit increased by 190 to - 704 yuan/ton, and coal - based profit decreased by 87 yuan to 101 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis fluctuated weakly, and the spread was weak. The position was at a high level, and trading volume was strong [32][35]. - **PTA**: The position and trading volume increased [44]. - **MEG**: The basis was weak, and the spread fluctuated weakly. The position decreased [54][62]. 3.3 PX Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: Domestic new capacity includes Fuguidaohua (technical renovation) with 300,000 tons in early 2026, Huajin Aramco with 2 million tons in Q3 2026, and Yantai Yulongdao with 3 million tons from the end of 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will add 800,000 tons in H2 2026 [75]. - **Supply**: The January start - up rate was at a historical high [79]. - **Import**: Imports increased significantly in December [83]. - **Inventory**: Inventory continued to accumulate in December [86]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN retraced, short - process profits decreased, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [89]. - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil**: Gasoline performance was weak, the octane value showed certain trends, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread was weak, and the relative value of blending for oil decreased [96][99][103][106]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, there were new capacities such as Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4. In 2026, India Oil and GAIL will add new capacities [122]. - **Supply**: It has entered the stockpiling cycle [129]. - **Export**: There are data on exports to India, Turkey, and Vietnam [127]. - **Inventory**: It has entered the stockpiling cycle [129]. - **Profit**: There are data on spot and disk processing fees and acetic acid costs [132]. 3.5 MEG Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, there were new capacities such as Zhengdakai Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I). In 2026, BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei will add new capacities [135]. - **Supply**: The overall load remained at a high level [138]. - **Import**: Imports increased significantly in December [140]. - **Inventory**: Due to high imports and the downstream off - season, ports continued to stockpile [150]. - **Cost**: Coal prices fluctuated, ethylene prices were continuously weak, and ethane prices rose [157]. - **Profit**: The valuation was at a relatively low level [160]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester** - **New Capacity**: There are new bottle - chip production facilities, and new capacities are planned for polyester filament, staple fiber, and chips in 2026 [175][176]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate has entered the off - season [178]. - **Export**: December export data increased year - on - year and month - on - month [184]. - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of filament was relatively small [187]. - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: There are data on the sales - to - production ratios of filament, staple fiber, and chips [194]. - **Profit**: The profit of filament improved significantly, and the profit of bottle - chips recovered [197][200]. - **Terminal** - **Start - up**: It has entered the off - season [203]. - **Order and Inventory**: Orders declined, inventory decreased, and raw material stockpiling was weak [209]. - **Retail and Export**: The growth rate of domestic demand for textile and clothing decreased, and exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was below the pre - pandemic high [213][216].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious Sell: Natural Gas [6] - Short Rebound: Crude Oil, LPG, L, PP, Asphalt [1][6] - Short Consolidation: PVC, Glass, Soda Ash [1][6] - Bullish: PTA [2] - Cautious Buying on Dips: Methanol [4] - Cautious Chasing Ups: Ethylene Glycol, Urea [2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The uncertainty in the Middle East has increased, leading to a stronger oil price. However, there is an oversupply of crude oil during the off - season, and the downward pressure on oil prices is large [1][9]. - LPG follows the cost - end rebound, and attention should be paid to the Saudi CP contract price at the end of the month. The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to move down [1][15]. - L and PP continue to rebound with cost support, but their fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand [16][20]. - PVC's high inventory restricts the rebound space, with a pattern of high inventory and weak demand in the long - term [24]. - PTA accumulates inventory before the Spring Festival, but the outlook is positive, and investors can buy on dips [28]. - Ethylene Glycol rebounds due to supply - side disturbances, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in January and February [31]. - Methanol has a slightly loose supply - demand situation, and short - term benefits are brought by geopolitical conflicts and cold weather [4]. - Urea has strong supply and demand, but the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, and caution is needed when chasing up [39]. - The impact of the cold wave on natural gas prices has weakened, and prices have fallen. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the upward space of gas prices is limited [45]. - The asphalt valuation is high, and there is a short - term risk of correction [47]. - Glass has weak supply and demand, and it fluctuates within a range. Attention should be paid to the reduction of supply [52]. - Soda Ash has a reduction in warehouse receipts and is in a short - side consolidation state. Caution is needed when chasing up [56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded strongly. WTI rose 1.30%, Brent rose 1.17%, and domestic SC rose 1.47% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, the cold wave in the Northern Hemisphere has damaged US crude oil production, and the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East has increased the geopolitical premium. In the long - term, there is an oversupply of crude oil during the off - season, and the global crude oil inventory is accelerating the accumulation [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply has decreased in the US due to the cold wave, and India's diesel exports to West Africa reached a record high in December. Demand: India's crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month. Inventory: As of the week of January 23, US crude oil inventory decreased by 2.295 million barrels [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production to lower prices. In the short - term, it is in a rebound trend. Attention should be paid to the production changes in non - OPEC+ regions and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The SC range to watch is [455 - 465] [11]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 28, the PG main contract closed at 4,269 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.40% [13]. - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost - end oil price. In the short - term, the oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, and in the long - term, it is under pressure. The supply is stable, and the downstream chemical demand is weak with inventory accumulation [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price has room for compression. In the short - term, the cost - end oil price has increased uncertainty. The PG range to watch is [4250 - 4350] [15]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract rose 1.0% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: It follows the cost - end to fluctuate strongly. The two - oil petrochemical inventory has no obvious pressure, and the upstream ex - factory price is strong. However, the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and there is no upward driving force in supply and demand [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range to watch is [6900 - 7100] [19]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract rose 1.0% [21]. - **Basic Logic**: It follows the crude oil to fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to the cold wave and geopolitical conflicts. The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, and the PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range to watch is [6700 - 6900] [23]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract had little change [25]. - **Basic Logic**: There is a game between high inventory and low profit, and it is in a volatile state. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range to watch is [4800 - 5000] [27]. 3.6 PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract decreased by 30 yuan/ton [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low, and the processing fee has improved. The supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in January and February, but the outlook is positive [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. The TA05 range to watch is [5248 - 5388] [30]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract remained unchanged [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is relatively low. The domestic load has increased overall, and the overseas devices have some changes. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the port inventory is accumulating [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on the rebound. The EG05 range to watch is [3895 - 3980] [33]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the comprehensive profit is weak. The domestic device operating load has declined from a high level, and the overseas devices have slightly increased the load. The demand has weakened slightly, and the cost support is weak and stable [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is pressure on the supply side, and the demand is weak. The MA05 range to watch is [2295 - 2355] [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR05 contract had a small increase [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the comprehensive profit is good. The overall operating load has been increasing, and the demand is strong in the short - term. However, the downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious when chasing up. The UR05 range to watch is [1780 - 1810] [42]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 27, the NG main contract closed at $3.776 per million British thermal units, a decrease of 2.00% [44]. - **Basic Logic**: Affected by the cold wave in the United States, the gas price soared in the short - term and is now falling as the impact of the cold wave fades. The supply is relatively sufficient [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although the demand is supported during the winter consumption peak, the upward space of gas prices is limited. The NG range to watch is [3.655 - 4.080] [46]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 28, the BU main contract closed at 3,410 yuan/ton, a rise of 131 yuan/ton [49]. - **Basic Logic**: The raw material end is favorable, and the oil price rebounds due to geopolitical uncertainties. However, the basis is weak, and there is a short - term risk of correction. The supply and demand are relatively loose, and the inventory is rising [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, but there is still room for compression. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The BU range to watch is [3350 - 3450] [51]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract rose slightly [53]. - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, and the enterprise inventory is at a high level. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the supply needs to be further reduced to digest the high inventory [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious when chasing up before the cold - repair is further realized. The FG range to watch is [1050 - 1100] [55]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract rose slightly [57]. - **Basic Logic**: The warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the basis is slightly strengthening. The real - estate demand is weak, and the demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The supply is under pressure, and the factory inventory is slowly decreasing [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious when chasing up before the maintenance is further intensified. The SA range to watch is [1190 - 1240] [59].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the chemical sector may undergo a revaluation due to clearer supply-side policy guidance and a mismatch between the current operational status and market position of China's chemical industry, indicating a high probability of future recovery [1] - The market may be underestimating the impact of liquidity on the sector, as the chemical industry is one of the few sectors that is at the bottom of the cycle, has an upward trend in fundamentals, and offers attractive valuations [1] - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index includes major players such as "Three Oil Giants," Wanhua Chemical, and Hengli Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit significantly from the cyclical recovery of the sector [1]