中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | OPEC+继续扩产，淡季供给过剩仍为核心驱动。库存方面，进入消费淡季， | | 原油 | | 美国库存上升，但库存绝对值不高，下方存一定支撑；供需方面，OPEC+10 | | | 谨慎看空 月 | 5 日会议计划于 11 月继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下 | | ★ | | 行压力较大，重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略： | | | | 空单继续持有同时购买看涨期权。 | | | | 油价中枢下移，沙特 CP 价格下调，成本端偏空。成本端原油供给过剩压 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 力仍在，沙特下调 CP 合同价，成本端利空；LPG 估值修复，主力合约基 | | ★ | | 差回归至正常；供给端相对充足，厂内库存上升；下游化工需求有所回升。 | | | | 策略：供需矛盾不大，走势跟随油价，空单继续持有。 | | L | | 短期跟随成本波动为主，节中原油稳中小跌，成本支撑转弱。节前两油聚 | | | 空头盘整 | 烯烃库存降至 59 ...

近年来，在全球经济波动与产业结构调整的双重影响下，聚酯产业正经历着一场前所未有的利润重塑， 而期现结合这一"利器"，正成为企业稳住利润、保障经营的关键所在。 国贸化工总经理陈韬对当前行业形势有着深刻感受。他走访下游织造企业时发现，不少中小企业因利润 微薄而被迫缩减产能。 "目前，聚酯行业产业链集中度提高，聚酯成品出口快速增长，国际影响力进一步提升，但产业链利润 出现了明显下滑和转移的趋势。"陈韬坦言，在利润重塑期，原料价格大幅波动，上下游议价权转移。 此时，企业对原料与成品库存的精细化管控，以及通过期货工具稳定生产、降低亏损的操作能力，正面 临前所未有的挑战，产业企业正在想办法积极应对。 产业链利润上下游分化的现象，在数据上体现得更为明显。恒逸国贸研究总监王广前介绍，今年4月 初，聚酯产业整体利润压缩至历史低位。4月底至5月，上游环节利润出现短暂修复，但下游聚酯产品利 润仍未摆脱整体承压状态。当"产一吨亏一吨"的压力持续传导至产业链各环节，部分企业开始跳出传统 经营模式，以期现结合为核心寻找破局路径。 构建多元化套保体系 期现结合打开新空间 全产业链利润处于低位 企业压力倍增 走进福建地区的聚酯产业集聚区，无 ...

PTA 行业将迎来历史性拐点 20250928 摘要 中国 PTA 行业自 2011 年以来盈利处于底部，仅在 2017-2018 年出现 短暂高峰，主要受技术变迁带来的产能扩张影响。预计 2026-2027 年 行业将迎来明显变化，原因在于技术进步停滞但需求持续增长。 截至 2025 年 9 月，中国 PTA 产能达 9,132 万吨，占全球 75%，其中 45%通过下游产品出口。美国人均 PET 消费量是中国一倍且持续增长， 欧美对 PET 需求依然强劲，为中国 PTA 产能扩张提供市场。 中国 PTA 市场集中度高，CR5 已达 70%。龙头企业如恒力石化、浙江 逸盛等通过扩产占据较大市场份额，并通过产业链一体化布局实现全产 业链覆盖，增强了市场竞争力。 英伟达 P8 等技术通过降低原料单耗和利用放热效应，大幅降低 PTA 生 产成本（从 600-800 元/吨降至 250-300 元/吨），推动龙头企业持续 扩张产能，提升市场竞争力。 目前 PX 生产 PTA 的极限单耗约为 0.65，技术提升空间有限。未来 PTA 行业趋势包括新产能增长停滞、老旧产能退出、行业集中度高等，龙头 企业通过减少老装置开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The market is in a state of "supply reduction and demand increase" with no obvious core contradictions. For PP, due to strong propylene and propane prices, PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, but the basis is still weak due to new device commissioning. For PE, current maintenance remains at a relatively high level, resulting in low short - term supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the supply rhythm as maintenance volume may gradually decrease from mid - September. Current new orders for demand are poor, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment before the Double Festival [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is the market's concern about the interruption of refined oil and crude oil supply from Russia due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply has heated up, which may drive the crack spread to strengthen. At the macro level, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the weakening of the US dollar also provides additional upward momentum for oil prices. The current market trading focus has shifted from the easing expectation to the spot supply risk dominated by geopolitical factors, and the futures price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, with the upper pressure of WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price has stabilized and rebounded. From the supply side, there are maintenance plans in the northwest and northeast this week, and the operating rate is expected to decline. From the demand side, the main alumina enterprises have good receiving, but the alumina itself is in an oversupply pattern, and the price has shown a downward trend recently, and most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - aluminum end demand has improved in the peak season, but the support for the caustic soda price is limited. Overall, the Shandong region has significantly accumulated inventory, but the main buyers have good willingness to receive, and the spot price may tend to be stable. Therefore, the downward space of the futures price may be limited. For PVC, the futures price has shown signs of stabilizing and stopping falling. On the supply side, there are many maintenance enterprises this week, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. The overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. The supply tension of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend, while the ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom support [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - For p - xylene (PX), as domestic and foreign PX maintenance devices resume operation and short - process benefits are good, PX supply gradually increases to a relatively high level. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation still exists, the polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing some short - term support for demand. However, the expectation for new orders and load peaks in the future is limited. The PX supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose in September, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. This week, the PX price has shifted to November and December. Under the scenario of downstream demand transfer in the fourth quarter, the positive support for PX is limited. It is expected that PX will fluctuate strongly with the oil price in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. For PTA, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September as device maintenance is still concentrated. However, due to the good liquidity in the spot market and the sales of some mainstream suppliers, the overall spot basis is weak. The demand side has some support, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited under the weak medium - term supply - demand expectation, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation. For ethylene glycol, the supply pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The import expectation is not high in September, and as it enters the peak demand season, the polyester load increases, and the rigid demand support improves, resulting in low port inventory and a strong basis. However, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning and device restart, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory accumulation channel, with the price under pressure. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply continues to increase, and although there is still the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation, new order follow - up is insufficient, and the peak season this year is not expected to be very prosperous. Currently, short - fiber factory inventory is low, and it has relatively strong support compared to raw materials. Overall, it mainly follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle - grade polyester chips, in September, device restart and shutdown coexist, and supply increases slightly. Considering the decline in soft drink and catering demand as the weather turns cooler, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upward space [13]. Methanol Industry - In terms of supply and demand, the inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. With continuous external procurement by some olefin plants in the inland and unexpected maintenance, the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand side is weak due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries. Some previously shut - down MTO plants at the port restarted last week, slightly relieving the port inventory pressure. In terms of valuation, the upstream profit is neutral, the MTO profit is marginally weakening, and the traditional downstream profit is still weak, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating a large amount of inventory, and the import volume remains high in September. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [19]. Urea Industry - The futures price of urea has rebounded, mainly due to short - covering driving the improvement of low - end spot transactions, rather than the substantial improvement of supply and demand. Device restart has brought the daily output back above 190,000 tons, and there will be further increments in the future, so the supply pressure continues to accumulate. On the demand side, it is the off - season for agriculture, the industrial demand is rigid, and the export is marginally weakening. The fundamentals do not provide continuous upward momentum. This rebound is more of a result of capital game and sentiment repair, and the upward height is limited by the dual pressures of supply expansion and export profit contraction. Attention should be paid to the restart and maintenance implementation rhythm of devices such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Tianze [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, due to the unplanned maintenance of a reforming device in East China, the supply in September is lower than expected. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and some products' secondary downstream inventories are high. In addition, the maintenance plan of downstream styrene devices increases from September to October, so the demand - side support weakens. The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is still expected to be relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. However, in the short term, with the strong oil price and the improvement of the domestic commodity macro - atmosphere, the price center of pure benzene is expected to be supported. For styrene, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S has declined. Some styrene devices are under planned maintenance, and some have reduced their loads due to accidents, resulting in a continuous decline in the high - level port inventory. With the short - term strong oil price, the driving force of styrene is expected to strengthen, but the rebound space is still limited by the high port inventory [30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 3.11%, 0.77%, and 2.65% respectively. The prices of spot products such as East China PP raffia and North China LDPE film also increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11% to 78.0%, while PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70% to 42.2%. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 8.06% and 14.74% respectively. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 76.8%, while PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices all increased, with increases of 0.67%, 0.03%, and 0.82% respectively. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also showed different degrees of increase [4]. - **Market Logic**: The overnight oil price increase was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts, including Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which threatened the output of refined oil and the export capacity of crude oil. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply heated up, and the US pressured its allies to stop buying Russian oil, further amplifying the supply - side risk premium. At the macro level, the expected Fed interest rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided upward momentum for oil prices [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and SH2509 decreased, while the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and V2509 increased significantly, with increases of 1.3% and 13.2% respectively [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the operating rate is expected to decline due to maintenance, and the demand from the alumina industry is good but the price is falling. For PVC, the supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance enterprises, and the demand from downstream products has increased slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR China PX increased, while the prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of most products in the polyester industry chain changed slightly. For example, the PTA operating rate increased by 4.0% to 76.8%, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 2.0% to 74.9% [13]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, with increases of 0.71% and 6.59% respectively. The basis and spread also changed significantly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol port inventory increased by 8.59% to 155.0 tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.97% to 72.75%, and the downstream external MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37% to 69.06% [17][18][19]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased, with increases of 1.20%, 0.76%, and 11.46% respectively [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has returned above 190,000 tons due to device restart, and there will be further increments. The demand side is in the off - season for agriculture, with rigid industrial demand and marginal weakening export [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets all increased slightly [30]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, with decreases of 6.9% and 9.9% respectively. The operating rates of some products in the industry chain, such as Asian pure benzene and styrene, decreased [30].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 供给过剩压力上升，油价趋势向下。EIA 最新数据显示，美国商业原油和 | | 原油 | | 成品油库存上升，SPR 累库量增快，消费旺季结束，需求端支撑减弱；供 | | ★★ | 看空 | 需方面，9 月 7 日，OPEC+继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价 | | | | 下行压力较大，供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡 | | | | 点。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气上方承压。成本端原油需求下降供给增加，供给过剩 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 压力上升，仍有下探空间；LPG 估值修复，主力合约基差处于正常水平； | | ★ | | PDH 开工率环比下降，但需求尚可，开工率超过 70%；供给端和库存变化 | | | | 不大，偏中性。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 仓单大幅增加，产业套保施压，盘面增仓破位下跌。期现齐跌，基差小幅 | | L | | 走强。基本面短期供需矛盾并不突出，但对后续市场偏悲观，上行驱动不 | | | 空头延续 | 足。本周产量下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish trend continues [1] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish trend continues [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease, supply surplus pressure rises, and oil prices trend downward. Buy put options [1][3][4] - LPG: Cost-side drags, upward momentum is insufficient. Take profit on long positions [1][7][8] - L: Market sentiment weakens, oscillates weakly. Wait for dips to go long [1][11][15] - PP: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, industry expectations are weak. Follow the cost to oscillate weakly and wait and see [1][18][22] - PVC: Market sentiment turns weak, inventory accumulates. Hold short positions [1][25][28] - PX: Supply-demand tight balance eases, oil prices oscillate weakly. Hold short positions at high levels and sell call options [1][31][33] - PTA: Supply-demand tight balance, oil prices oscillate weakly. Gradually take profit on short positions, buy put options, and look for opportunities to go long at lows [1][35][37] - MEG: Supply-demand is slightly loose, inventory is low. Hold short positions cautiously and look for low-buying opportunities [2][39][41] - Methanol: Negative factors may be exhausted. Take profit on 09 short positions, look for 01 low-buying opportunities, sell 10 put options, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [2][43][45] - Urea: Fundamentals are weak, but the fertilizer export window to India opens. Hold 01 long positions and sell put options [2][47][49] - Asphalt: Cost-side drags and demand declines. Lightly short [2][52][54] - Propylene: Cost support weakens, oscillates weakly. Wait and see in the short term [2][56][57] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined, WTI dropped 1.48%, Brent dropped 1.22%, and SC dropped 0.02% [3] - **Basic Logic**: After the US-Russia talks, geopolitical conflicts tend to ease. The support of the peak season for oil prices gradually decreases, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices gradually rises. Oil prices still have room to compress, and there is a probability of being pressed to around $60 in the medium and long term [4] - **Fundamentals**: From January to July this year, Azerbaijan's oil exports through the BTC pipeline decreased by 5.9% year-on-year. In July, India's crude oil imports dropped to the lowest level since September 2023. As of the week of August 8, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break-even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of [470 - 490] for SC [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 19, the PG main contract closed at 4314 yuan/ton, up 0.14% month-on-month [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: The cost-side oil price is weak, and the fundamentals are okay. The basis is at a high level, and the supply and demand have improved. The cost side is the main drag, and the upward momentum is weak [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. The ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, with a neutral valuation. The trend mainly follows the oil price. Take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of [4200 - 4300] for PG [9] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7307 yuan/ton, down 0.4% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 379 lots [11][12][13] - **Industry News**: In the short term, the cost support of PE weakens, the supply pressure eases, and the demand is expected to be strong. It is expected that the polyethylene price will run strongly, with an increase of 10 - 50 yuan/ton [14] - **Basic Logic**: Demand recovers slowly, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The parking ratio increases, the LL import profit margin decreases, and the production is expected to decline. The peak season for shed films is coming, and the demand support is strengthening. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Wait for dips to go long. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7400] for L [1][15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and wait for dips to go long [16] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 7016 yuan/ton, down 0.3% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 1180 lots [18][19][20] - **Industry News**: The downstream demand is weak, and the market is affected by bearish sentiment. However, the cost side still has support, and the macro - policy is favorable. It is expected that the market will oscillate bearishly around 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton in the short term [21] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, industry expectations are weak, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The upstream maintenance intensity declines, the export profit margin remains negative, and the demand starts slowly. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm in the peak season. Follow the cost to oscillate weakly and wait and see. Pay attention to the range of [6900 - 7100] for PP [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and go long on dips [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 5001 yuan/ton, down 1.0% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 134 lots [25][26][27] - **Industry News**: Some enterprises' devices are shut down, and India issued an anti - dumping tax on PVC imports. The domestic supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and the market will continue to run weakly. It is expected that the spot price of calcium carbide - type five in East China will be in the range of 4700 - 4850 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment turns weak, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. Social inventories have accumulated for 8 consecutive weeks. Multiple sets of devices are planned to be overhauled this week, and the weekly output is expected to decline. In August, new production capacity will be released, and the internal and external demand is in the off - season. The export is disturbed by policies, and the pressure of inventory accumulation in the industrial chain still exists. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory in August [29] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton [31][32] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing their loads. The demand side is weak but expected to improve. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the PX inventory is still high. The PXN is not low. The oil price oscillates weakly. Cautiously bearish [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions at high levels and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6680 - 6790] for PX511 [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PTA spot price in East China was 4659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [35][36] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, the supply - side device maintenance intensity increases, and the start - up load decreases. The demand side is stable, and the start - up load of downstream polyester and terminal weaving stops falling and rebounds. The supply - demand tight balance in August is expected to ease. The TA processing fee is low, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at lows [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profit on short positions, buy put options, and look for opportunities to go long on TA at lows. Pay attention to the range of [4700 - 4750] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [39][40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices are slightly increasing their loads, and the expected arrival volume increases, with the total supply increasing. The start - up load of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is expected to rebound. The supply and demand in August are slightly loose, and the oil price trend is downward. However, the ethylene glycol inventory is low, supporting the price. In the short term, it oscillates weakly, but the downward space may be limited [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of [4380 - 4430] for EG01 [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2355 yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton [43][44] - **Basic Logic**: The previously overhauled domestic devices have recovered, and the overseas methanol device load is at a high level, increasing the supply - side pressure. The demand is weak, and the social inventory is accumulating. The negative factors may be exhausted [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, look for 01 low - buying opportunities, sell 10 put options, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads. Pay attention to the range of [2385 - 2415] for MA01 [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: The urea device maintenance is low this week, and the start - up load is expected to rise, increasing the supply - side pressure. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the fertilizer export is good. The cost side has support. In the short term, the domestic urea fundamentals are still loose, but the price fluctuates within a range under the export quota system and the "peak - shaving and summer - ensuring" policy. The market speculates on the expectation of fertilizer/urea exports to India [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of [1790 - 1835] for UR01 [51] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 19, the BU main contract closed at 3453 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month [52][53] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase and trends weakly. The asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The asphalt profit is okay, and the cracking spread is at a high level. The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the long - term asphalt price is under pressure due to the typhoon in the south [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The cracking spread and the BU - FU spread are at high levels, with a high valuation. As OPEC gradually increases production, the raw material side is relatively sufficient. The asphalt is bearish in the medium and long term. Lightly short. Pay attention to the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [55] Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL01 closing price was 6404 yuan/ton, down 0.7% day - on - day. The warehouse receipts increased by 197 lots [56][57] - **Industry News**: The PDH device has restarted, and the regional circulation has increased, but the enterprise inventory is low. The downstream restocking is okay. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to increase after the restart of some PDH devices, but the demand is also expected to increase due to the recovery of some PP devices. The price may oscillate within a range [59] - **Basic Logic**: Both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The upstream supply is abundant, and the PDH cost support weakens. The downstream is gradually entering the seasonal peak season. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm. The short - term market sentiment is weak. Wait and see [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent board reshuffle at *ST Songfa, a subsidiary of Hengli Group, signals a significant shift in the company's direction, with a focus on integrating Hengli Heavy Industry into the listed entity, marking a potential end to a long-term "shell" strategy [3][12][24]. Group 1: Company Background - Hengli Group, established 31 years ago, reported a total revenue of 871.5 billion yuan, ranking third among China's top 500 private enterprises [3]. - The group is controlled by Chen Jianhua and Fan Hongwei, who are recognized as prominent figures in the private sector, with a combined wealth of 125 billion yuan, placing them among China's top 20 wealthy families [6][7]. Group 2: Board Reshuffle Details - On August 6, *ST Songfa announced an early board reshuffle, with a new board of directors nominated, none of the previous members retained [3][12]. - The new board includes Chen Hanlun, a 24-year-old candidate and son of the actual controllers, marking his debut in the A-share market [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, *ST Songfa's stock price rose, with market capitalization increasing from 40.1 billion yuan to 46 billion yuan within a week [12][13]. - The market's positive response indicates investor confidence in the upcoming integration of Hengli Heavy Industry into *ST Songfa [13][24]. Group 4: Historical Context - *ST Songfa, originally a ceramics company, has faced significant challenges, including three consecutive years of losses leading to its current status as a "ST" (special treatment) company [12][21]. - The company was acquired by Hengli Group in 2018, with the intention of utilizing its public listing as a "shell" for future business ventures [14][15]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The restructuring plan involves divesting all ceramic assets and replacing them with Hengli Heavy Industry's assets, valued at approximately 8 billion yuan, alongside a fundraising effort of up to 4 billion yuan [23][27]. - This move is seen as a strategic alignment with Hengli Group's broader industrial goals, particularly in the heavy industry and shipbuilding sectors [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - LPG: Hold long positions [1] - L: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [1] - PP: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and the support from the peak season is weakening. OPEC+ production increase exerts downward pressure. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday. Consider buying put options [1][5]. - **LPG**: High basis and improved fundamentals lead to a short - term rebound. Hold long positions [1]. - **L**: The main contract is changing, and the spot price is stable. The basis is strengthening. With the approaching of the agricultural film peak season, consider buying on dips [1]. - **PP**: The spot price is slightly falling, and the 09 basis is strengthening. Although the downstream demand recovers slowly, the technical bottom provides support. Consider buying on dips [1]. - **PVC**: Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 consecutive weeks, and the warehouse receipts are increasing significantly. Wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is still relatively high. The oil price is oscillating weakly. Consider taking profit on short positions and put options, and look for opportunities to sell call options [1]. - **PTA**: The spot processing fee is weakening, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand is in the off - season. Consider taking profit on short positions, buying put options, and look for opportunities to go long on dips [1]. - **MEG**: The domestic production is slightly increasing, but the arrival and import are lower than the same period. The downstream is in the off - season. Consider looking for opportunities to sell call options [2]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The social inventory is accumulating. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions, looking for low - buying opportunities for 01, and taking profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [2]. - **Urea**: The production is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions and looking for low - buying opportunities for 01 [2]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The raw material supply is sufficient, and the valuation is high. Consider shorting with a light position [2]. - **Propylene**: The PDH cost support is weakening, but the supply pressure may ease marginally. The downstream is entering the peak season. Consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 0.61%, Brent rose 1.84%, and SC fell 0.88% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The support from the peak season is declining, and the OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure. The oil price still has room to decline, and it may fall to around $60 in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The IEA expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's August production was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 263,000 barrels per day. The demand is expected to grow, but the inventory in the US increased last week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying put options. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 14, the PG main contract closed at 3,832 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,420 ( - 10), 4,401 ( + 0), and 4,365 ( + 5) yuan/ton respectively [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is weak, but the fundamentals are good. The basis is high, and the supply and inventory are both decreasing. The short - term rebound is expected [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. Focus on the range of [3,850 - 3,950] for PG [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,285 yuan/ton, and the North China Ningmei price was 7,290 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day) [15]. - **Industry News**: The polyethylene market was strong this week. Although the supply was high, the pressure is expected to ease with more maintenance. The demand is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is changing, and the spot price is stable. The basis is strengthening. With the approaching of the agricultural film peak season, the fundamentals are expected to improve. Consider buying on dips [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [7,250 - 7,450] for L [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 7,085 yuan/ton, and the East China drawn wire spot price was 7,056 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry News**: The polypropylene spot price was slightly adjusted this week. The upstream raw materials are expected to be favorable, but the supply - demand fundamentals have limited driving force [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price is slightly falling, and the 09 basis is strengthening. The upstream maintenance is high, and the downstream demand recovers slowly. Consider buying on dips [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [7,050 - 7,200] for PP [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 closed at 4,970 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts increased by 3,239 lots [29]. - **Industry News**: There was no new enterprise maintenance this week. The supply - demand contradiction persists, and the inventory is accumulating. The spot price is expected to be stable [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 consecutive weeks, and the warehouse receipts are increasing significantly. Wait for a rebound to go short [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of [4,900 - 5,100] for V [31]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PX spot price in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,726 ( - 30) yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side changes are limited, and the demand - side PTA processing fee is low with increased maintenance. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is still high. The oil price is oscillating weakly. Consider taking profit on short positions and put options, and look for opportunities to sell call options [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and put options. Look for opportunities to sell call options. Focus on the range of [6,600 - 6,720] for PX [37]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,670 ( - 15) yuan/ton, and the TA09 closed at 4,684 ( - 4) yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply - side maintenance is increasing. The demand is in the off - season. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the cost support is weakening. Consider taking profit on short positions, buying put options, and look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions gradually, buy put options, and pay close attention to the US - Russia Alaska talks. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for TA. Focus on the range of [4,660 - 4,730] for TA [41]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4,456 ( - 19) yuan/ton, and the EG09 closed at 4,384 ( - 12) yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic production is slightly increasing, but the arrival and import are lower than the same period. The downstream is in the off - season. The 8 - month supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is relatively low. Consider looking for opportunities to sell call options [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to sell call options. Focus on the range of [4,350 - 4,390] for EG [45]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the East China methanol spot price was 2,393 ( - 3) yuan/ton, and the methanol main 09 contract closed at 2,383 ( - 5) yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and the overseas methanol devices are operating at a high load. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The social inventory is accumulating. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions, looking for low - buying opportunities for 01, and taking profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions gradually. The downside space for 01 may be limited. Look for low - buying opportunities for 01. Take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads in batches. Focus on the range of [2,420 - 2,460] for MA [48]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,760 ( - 20) yuan/ton, and the urea main contract closed at 1,728 ( - 9) yuan/ton [50]. - **Basic Logic**: The urea device operating load is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is rising. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. The cost support exists. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions and looking for low - buying opportunities for 01 [51]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions. Pay attention to the small peak of autumn fertilizer use for urea and look for low - buying opportunities for 01. Focus on the range of [1,725 - 1,755] for UR [52]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided for asphalt. - **Basic Logic**: The short - term oil price has stabilized but still has room to decline. The raw material supply is sufficient, and the supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The valuation is high. Consider shorting with a light position [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position. Propylene - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided for propylene. - **Basic Logic**: The Shandong spot price decreased slightly, and the East China spot price increased. The 8 - month propane CP price decreased rapidly, weakening the PDH cost support. The supply pressure may ease marginally, and the downstream is entering the peak season. Consider buying on dips [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The absolute price is low. Consider buying on dips.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes within Hengli Group, particularly the emergence of the second generation of leadership, highlighted by the nomination of 24-year-old Chen Hanlun to the board of *ST Songfa, indicating a potential "shell" transformation in the capital market [5][11][27]. Group 1: Company Overview - Hengli Group, established for 31 years, reported a total revenue of 871.5 billion yuan, ranking third among China's top 500 private enterprises [5]. - The group is controlled by Chen Jianhua and Fan Hongwei, who are recognized as prominent figures in the private sector, with a combined wealth of 125 billion yuan, placing them among the top 20 wealthy families in China [6][7]. Group 2: Board Restructuring - *ST Songfa announced an early board restructuring, with a complete turnover of the board members, indicating a strategic shift within the company [5][10]. - The nomination of Chen Hanlun, the son of the actual controller, marks a significant generational transition in the company's leadership [6][11]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the board restructuring, *ST Songfa's stock price rose, reflecting investor optimism about the upcoming changes and potential asset injections [10][11]. - The company's market capitalization increased from 40.1 billion yuan to 46 billion yuan within a week, demonstrating strong market confidence [10]. Group 4: Historical Context - *ST Songfa, originally a ceramics company, has faced challenges leading to its current status as a "shell" company, which Hengli Group aims to transform through asset injections [11][12]. - The company was acquired by Hengli Group in 2018, with the intention of leveraging its public listing for future growth opportunities [12][14]. Group 5: Future Prospects - Hengli Group plans to inject approximately 8 billion yuan worth of assets from Hengli Heavy Industry into *ST Songfa, transitioning the company from ceramics to shipbuilding, which aligns with the group's broader industrial strategy [24][25]. - The completion of this asset restructuring is expected to enhance the company's operational focus and financial performance, as it moves into a more lucrative sector [26].

1. Report Sector Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bearish [1] - PP: Cautiously bearish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply glut leads to weakening oil prices, but downside support is rising; short - term there may be a small rebound [1]. - LPG has a low valuation, and its position has risen to a recent high, increasing the rebound momentum [1]. - Cost support for L has weakened, while the spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - The cost of PP continues to fall, the total commercial inventory continues to accumulate, and the export profit margin has turned negative, with weak downstream restocking power [1]. - The upstream operation of PVC has increased, and the social inventory has accumulated for 7 consecutive weeks; the supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [1]. - The supply - demand of PX is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high; the cost support of oil prices is expected to weaken [1]. - The operation of PTA devices has little change, the demand is weak, and the cost support is expected to weaken [1]. - The operation of ethylene glycol devices has increased slightly, the arrival and import are lower than the same period, and the demand is weak [1]. - As the delivery month approaches, the market focus of glass has shifted from macro - policy expectations to its own fundamentals, and the inventory has stopped falling and started to increase [2]. - The pattern of the soda ash industry has not improved significantly, the supply is high, and the inventory has increased [2]. - The supply and inventory of caustic soda in Shandong are abundant, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially, showing a supply - surplus situation [2]. - The domestic methanol maintenance devices have resumed production, the overseas devices' load has increased, and the arrival volume in August is expected to be high; the demand is expected to weaken [2]. - The operation load of urea devices is expected to increase, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is relatively good [2]. - The cost of asphalt has compression space, the supply of raw materials is sufficient, and the supply - demand has decreased, with a neutral - bearish fundamental situation [2]. - The spot price of propylene in East China and Shandong has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the downstream demand has not kept up, with obvious surplus pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI down 0.73%, Brent down 0.69%, and SC up slightly by 0.02% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: The support of the peak season for oil prices is gradually decreasing, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices is gradually rising. The oil price still has compression space, but the downside support is gradually strengthening, and it may be suppressed around $60 in the medium - to - long term [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In May, US crude oil production increased by 24,000 barrels per day to 13.488 million barrels per day; in July, Kazakhstan supplied 160,000 tons of oil to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline; in July, the crude oil shipped from Russian ports was 3.46 million barrels per day. As of August 3, the arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries decreased by 190,000 tons, a decline of 8.18%. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. After taking profit on short positions, you can wait and see. Pay attention to the range of SC [490 - 505] [6]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On August 7, the PG main contract closed at 3,837 yuan/ton, up 0.05% month - on - month [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is weak, the basis is at a high level, and the position has risen rapidly recently. As of August 7, the number of warehouse receipts was 10,199 lots, up 480 lots month - on - month. As of the week of August 8, the LPG commodity volume was 529,200 tons, up 2,700 tons week - on - week [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, the center of gravity is expected to move down. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound. Try to go long with a light position. Pay attention to the range of PG [3750 - 3870] [11]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7,297 yuan/ton, and the L9 - 1 spread was - 67 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support has weakened, the spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the basis has strengthened. Most devices have restarted recently, and the supply pressure has increased marginally. The social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks. As the delivery month approaches, industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [18]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,075 yuan/ton, and the PP9 - 1 spread was - 31 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost continues to fall, the total commercial inventory continues to accumulate, the export profit margin has turned negative, and the downstream restocking power is weak. The basis for further negative fundamentals is limited, and there is technical support at the bottom [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions gradually when the price is low [25]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5,046 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 251 lots [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream operation has increased, and the social inventory has accumulated for 7 consecutive weeks. The calcium carbide price has risen continuously, and the cost support has improved. New production capacity will be released in August, and the supply - demand is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound and then go short. Pay attention to the range of V [4900 - 5200] [32]. 3.6 PX - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton. The PX9 - 1 spread was 22 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 118 yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas devices have little change. The PXN spread is at a low level in the same period of the past five years. The demand has weakened slightly but is expected to improve. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and pay attention to low - buying opportunities; at the same time, sell call options. Pay attention to the range of PX [6700 - 6790] [37]. 3.7 PTA - **Market Review**: On August 1, the PTA price in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was - 38 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was - 4 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The operation of the devices has decreased slightly. The demand of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand tight - balance in August is expected to ease, and the cost support is expected to weaken [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions, pay attention to high - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of TA [4640 - 4710] [41]. 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 75 yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas devices have increased their load slightly, but the arrival and import are still lower than the same period. The demand of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in July and August, and the inventory is low [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions, pay attention to high - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of EG [4360 - 4410] [45]. 3.9 Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation has continued to decline, the futures price has fallen slightly, the basis in Hubei has expanded, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [48]. - **Basic Logic**: The "anti - involution" policy expectation is repeated, the market risk preference has declined, and the sentiment is cautious. A glass production line has been restarted, the production has increased, the sales have slowed down, and the inventory has increased [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG2509 [1050, 1080] [50]. 3.10 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has declined, the futures price has fallen slightly, the negative basis has expanded, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts has increased [53]. - **Basic Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down. The supply has increased slightly this week, and the inventory has ended three weeks of destocking. The supply - demand surplus pattern has not improved significantly, and the fundamentals are bearish [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not clearly stated in the text. 3.11 Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda has declined, the futures price has fallen, the center of gravity has moved down, the main - contract basis has narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [58]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply and inventory of caustic soda in Shandong are abundant. The terminal alumina industry's demand for caustic soda is low, and the non - aluminum terminal demand is limited. The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly, and the demand has not improved substantially [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not clearly stated in the text. 3.12 Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 2 yuan/ton, the port basis was - 8 yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 spread was - 92 yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit was 61 US dollars/ton [61]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, the overseas devices' load has increased, and the arrival volume in August is expected to be high. The demand is expected to weaken, the social inventory has accumulated, and the cost support has stabilized [62]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions at high prices for the 09 contract and sell call options; pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract. Take profit on the MA9 - 1 spread gradually when it rebounds. Pay attention to the range of MA [2355 - 2400] [63]. 3.13 Urea - **Market Review**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The operation load of urea devices is expected to increase next week, the domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, the factory inventory has decreased but is still high compared with the same period, and the export is relatively good [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully for the 09 contract and pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract [2]. 3.14 Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil has compression space, the supply of raw materials is sufficient, the supply - demand has decreased, the inventory has accumulated, and the fundamental situation is neutral - bearish [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of BU [3450 - 3550] [2]. 3.15 Propylene - **Market Review**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in East China and Shandong has increased, the cost support has weakened, the upstream operation rate has decreased marginally, the downstream demand has not kept up, and the factory inventory has accumulated for 4 consecutive weeks, with obvious surplus pressure [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [2].