工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点评 8 日工业硅震荡走弱，主力 2605 收于 8535/吨，日内跌幅 4.53%，持仓增 仓 15797 手至 26.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货贴水转至升水 315 元/吨。多晶硅多合约跌停，主力 2605 收于 53610 元/吨，日内跌幅达跌 停板 9%，持仓减仓 9751 手至 5.8 万手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格 上涨至 55500 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格 53500 元/吨，现货对主力贴 水转至升水 1890 元/吨。工业硅主产重心延续向北转移，虽有环保控产 减量但难抵需求降幅空间，多晶硅限额减产，有机硅抱团减产，铝合金 环保减产，工业硅有成本支撑无持续驱动，延续高位布空思路对待。多 晶硅交易的核心逻辑是关于产能平台建立，以收储形式的进行供给侧控 产，但收储动作迟迟不落地，市场担心生变。另外交易所几轮提保，执 行风控限仓，叠加低仓单压力大幅缓解，过热投机性情绪消散。在市场 重议产业链利润分配问题和下游减产问题后，多晶硅上 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜内外铜价震荡回落，国内精炼铜进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国首次申请失业救济人数为20.8万 人。该数据虽较前值19.9万人小幅回升，但仍低于市场预期的21.2万人，现实劳动力市场基本面的稳 固。美联储的报告显示，消费者预计未来一年物价将上涨3.4%，高于11月的3.2%。美联储内部官员继 续存在较大分歧，一部分官员更担忧通胀问题，另一部分则认为失业率上升才是更大的风险，导致月底 的美联储会议降息预期仍不明朗。库存方面，LME库存下降2150吨至141075吨；Comex库存增加2255吨 至467165吨；SHFE铜仓单增加12211吨至108685吨，BC铜维持1053吨。需求方面，因铜价持续高位， 终端订单有所放缓，市场维系刚性采购需求。随着淡季到来，国内进入累库阶段，市场分歧也在加大， 笔者认为有序调整后有利于后续行情的发展，关注持续性。 镍&不锈钢： （王珩，从业资格号：F3080733；交易咨询资格号：Z0020715） 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜AO2 ...

Research Views - On December 30, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.08%. The open interest decreased by 4,845 lots to 216,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 9,603 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium to a discount of 65 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend. The main contract 2605 closed at 57,890 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.19%. The open interest decreased by 12,300 lots to 83,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material from Baichuan was raised to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also raised to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 5,390 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon plants in the southwest region reduced production again. In the northwest region, there were both increases and decreases in production, and there were expectations of environmental - related production cuts in the future. Due to high - level hedging, the overall inventory pressure on silicon plants was limited. In the short term, industrial silicon continued to follow the logic of cost and production - cut - driven price increases [2]. - Battery cell production was cut and prices were raised again due to the sharp increase in silver prices. Silicon wafer manufacturers significantly raised their quotes. However, the price increase effect on the crystalline silicon end was not good, and several polysilicon plants reported production cuts in January. As the market feedback on the state reserve purchase weakened, the issues of industrial chain profit distribution and downstream production - cut pressure were re - discussed, and new warehouse receipts were registered to relieve pressure, the polysilicon futures price gradually corrected downward [2]. - There were still risks of disturbances in the futures market's capital situation. Investors were advised to be cautious about short - selling and focus on the implementation of production cuts by polysilicon plants [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 8,715 yuan/ton on December 29 to 8,915 yuan/ton on December 30, up 200 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 8,625 yuan/ton to 8,785 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot prices of various grades remained mostly stable, with no change in most regions for不通氧553 and通氧553 and 421 silicon [3]. - The current lowest deliverable price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed from 135 yuan/ton to a discount of 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [3]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 120 to 10,027 (daily), and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 2,040 to 47,135 (weekly). The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 6,000 tons to 462,150 tons [3]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 56,500 yuan/ton on December 29 to 57,890 yuan/ton on December 30, up 1,390 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 57,750 yuan/ton to 58,350 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of N - type recycled polysilicon material increased by 100 yuan/ton to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the current lowest deliverable price also increased by 100 yuan/ton to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount widened from 4,100 yuan/ton to 5,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,290 yuan/ton [3]. - The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 4,020 (daily), and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.9 million tons to 11.91 million tons (weekly). The total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.2 million tons to 30.8 million tons [3]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 13,700 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton [3]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][8][10]. Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16]. Inventory - Charts present the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory change of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [19][23]. Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloy [25][27][29]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [33]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He won the 18th Best Green Finance New Material Futures Analyst Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times [33]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research. She won the 18th Best Green Finance New Material Futures Analyst Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times [34].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 29, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,715 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.68%. The open interest decreased by 3,677 lots to 221,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,603 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 135 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 56,500 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 4.84%. The open interest decreased by 23,500 lots to 95,600 lots. The price of Baichuan's N-type recycled polysilicon material was raised to 52,400 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also raised to 52,400 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract narrowed to 4,100 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon plants in the southwest region cut production again, while those in the northwest had both increases and decreases, with expectations of environmental protection - related production cuts in the future. Due to high - level hedging, the overall inventory pressure of silicon plants was limited. In the short term, industrial silicon continued to follow the logic of cost and production - cut - driven price increases [2]. - Battery cell production was cut and prices were raised again due to the sharp rise in silver prices, and silicon wafer manufacturers significantly raised their quotes. However, the price increase effect at the crystalline silicon end was not good, and several polysilicon material plants reported production cuts in January. Due to the weakening market feedback on state reserves, the re - discussion of the industrial chain profit distribution and downstream production - cut pressure, and the emergence of new warehouse receipt registrations to relieve pressure, the polysilicon futures price gradually corrected downward. There were still risks of capital - side disturbances in the futures market, and investors were advised to be vigilant against short - chasing and focus on the implementation of production cuts by polysilicon material plants [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Research Viewpoints - The research viewpoints section mainly analyzes the price trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon on December 29, 2025, including the changes in futures prices, open interest, and spot prices. It also analyzes the production - cut situation of silicon plants and the reasons for the price fluctuations in the polysilicon market, and provides investment suggestions [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased, with the main contract dropping from 8,880 yuan/ton to 8,715 yuan/ton and the near - month contract dropping from 8,790 yuan/ton to 8,625 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions remained stable, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 135 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The inventory of industrial silicon increased, with the daily warehouse receipt increasing by 480 tons to 9,907 tons, and the social inventory increasing by 6,000 tons to 462,150 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased, with the main contract dropping from 58,955 yuan/ton to 56,500 yuan/ton and the near - month contract dropping from 59,500 yuan/ton to 57,750 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot discount to the main contract narrowed to 4,100 yuan/ton. The inventory of polysilicon increased, with the daily warehouse receipt increasing by 30 tons to 4,000 tons, and the social inventory increasing by 0.2 million tons to 30.8 million tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of most organic silicon products remained stable, except that the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - The section may include charts showing the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices, which help to analyze the price trends and cost - side factors of industrial silicon [5][8][10]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - It includes charts of the prices of downstream products such as DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, which help to understand the price trends of the downstream industrial chain of industrial silicon [13][15][17]. 3.3 Inventory - The section presents charts of the futures inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC, which helps to monitor the inventory situation of the industrial chain [20][21][23]. 3.4 Cost - Profit - It includes charts of the average cost level, average profit level, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, processing industry profit of polysilicon, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of aluminum alloy, which helps to analyze the cost - profit situation of different industries in the industrial chain [25][27][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Over the past week, the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue has stalled or regressed, causing oil prices to decline slightly in a volatile market. The crude oil market remains in a state of multi - short stalemate, and the market is waiting for further clarity on the situation [2]. - After the hype of domestic PX device maintenance news, the price has returned to normal. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether PX profits can continue to rise depends on more unexpected factors [2]. - PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain, and social inventory is decreasing due to the rigid demand of new PTA production devices. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester production is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to when the positive feedback will occur [2]. - The PTA market has declined slightly. PTA spot inventory is decreasing, but the liquidity is sufficient, and the spot basis may continue to weaken. Although the PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, unplanned device maintenance is difficult to continuously boost prices [2]. - As the traditional peak season approaches, the polyester production load may increase, and the de - stocking volume is expected to expand. At the beginning of the month, downstream polyester factories consume long - term PTA supplies and are not very active in purchasing PTA spot [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market remains stable. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuate slightly, the supply - side quotations are mostly stable, and downstream terminals are cautious in their purchases [2]. - The current pricing logic is still cost - driven. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summaries by Categories Price Information - WTI crude oil futures settlement price (continuous) on August 29, 2025, was $64.01 per barrel, down 0.91% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settlement price (continuous) on September 1, 2025, was $68.15 per barrel, up 0.04% [1]. - On September 1, 2025, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $596.25 per ton, down 0.19%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $683 per ton, down 1.23% [1]. - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) on September 1, 2025, was $848 per ton, down 0.08% [1]. - CZCE TA main - contract closing price on September 1, 2025, was 4,772 yuan per ton, down 0.25%; the settlement price was 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [1]. - The spot price of PTA in the domestic market on September 1, 2025, was 4,728 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; CCFEI PTA domestic price index was 4,727 yuan per ton, down 0.27% [1]. - CZCE PX main - contract closing price on September 1, 2025, was 6,866 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; the settlement price was 6,854 yuan per ton, up 0.15% [1]. - The spot price of PX in the domestic market on September 1, 2025, was 6,738 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price of PX (CFR Taiwan, China) on August 29, 2025, was $849 per ton, unchanged [1]. - CZCE PR main - contract closing price on September 1, 2025, was 5,950 yuan per ton, down 0.10%; the settlement price was 5,940 yuan per ton, down 0.24% [1]. - The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chip in the East China market on September 1, 2025, was 5,890 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; in the South China market, it was 5,960 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - CCFEI price indices of polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY68D, FDY150D, and short - fiber remained unchanged on September 1, 2025 [2]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22, 2025. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 - 23, 2025, and the restart time is to be determined [2]. Production and Sales Information - On September 1, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 82.59%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 72.55%, up 1.79%; the load rate of polyester factories was 87.99%, up 0.84%; the load rate of bottle - chip factories was 73.32%, up 0.23%; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 62.03%, unchanged [1]. - On September 1, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 40.72%, down 0.90%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 38.79%, down 7.07%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 64.55%, down 13.21% [1] Trading Strategy - The cost support has been weakened. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,772 yuan per ton (- 0.04%), with an intraday trading volume of 527,800 lots; the PX2511 contract closed at 6,866 yuan per ton (0.32%), with an intraday trading volume of 161,400 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5,950 yuan per ton (- 0.07%), with an intraday trading volume of 50,400 lots [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - PX market is strong, and its cost supports PTA. PTA market shows a slight increase with a minor fluctuation in the spot basis. PTA processing fees are in the low - range, and new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season make it difficult for unplanned device maintenance to boost prices. PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains stable. The supply side of bottle - chips has low - level operations, with sufficient market spot supply. Downstream terminal procurement enthusiasm is average, and market sentiment is cautious [2]. - Without unexpected good news, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - On August 18, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $63.42 per barrel, up 0.99% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $66.60 per barrel, up 1.14%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $570.75 per ton, down 0.31%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $680.00 per ton, down 0.66% [1]. - **PTA Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4746 yuan per ton, up 0.64%; the settlement price was 4726 yuan per ton, up 0.38%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4696 yuan per ton, up 0.43%; the settlement price was 4680 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4659 yuan per ton, up 0.11% [1]. - **PX Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6760 yuan per ton, up 1.08%; the settlement price was 6702 yuan per ton, up 0.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6804 yuan per ton, up 0.71%; the settlement price was 6756 yuan per ton, up 0.24%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6581 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - **PR Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5928 yuan per ton, up 0.54%; the settlement price was 5896 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5856 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 5844 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5920 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; in the South China market, it was 5940 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream Product Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6475 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5920 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. Other downstream product price indices remained unchanged [2]. Operating Conditions - On August 18, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 80.38%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA plants was 77.67%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.30%, up 0.42%; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 71.93%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.80%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On August 18, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 45.74%, up 9.42%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber was 40.41%, down 9.21%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips was 75.00%, up 21.43% [1]. Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 7, expected to last 2 months. Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 8, expected to last 1 month. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is planned for technical transformation from August 15 for 3 months. Two 800,000 - ton PX devices in South China will be restarted soon [2]. Important News - The US - Russia meeting ended on Friday. Although no substantial agreement was reached, the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine is expected to accelerate, and the expectation of US sanctions against Russia has relaxed, reducing geopolitical risks. The PX supply is recovering, and the current PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support [2].

Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is facing significant production losses due to new capacity coming online, while profits are concentrated in the upstream PX segment, with no planned maintenance for PTA facilities in the short term [1][6]. Group 1: PTA Industry Analysis - As of August 14, the average processing fee for PTA in August is 195 yuan/ton, down 19% from July, marking a 22-month low [1]. - The theoretical production loss for PTA companies is estimated at 305 yuan/ton, based on a processing cost line of 500 yuan/ton [1]. - The main reason for PTA's production losses is the new capacity coming online and the continued supply-demand mismatch in PX, which remains relatively strong [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polyester industry chain's profits are currently concentrated in the upstream PX and downstream polyester filament POY segments [3]. - The theoretical profit for PX is 381 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from July, while polyester filament POY has turned profitable with a theoretical profit of 29 yuan/ton [3]. - Despite the severe losses faced by PTA, the supply pressure is expected to increase with the upcoming new PTA capacities, which may not be offset by any planned maintenance [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The PX supply-demand imbalance is expected to continue, with new PTA capacities potentially increasing PX demand by 34.7 thousand tons/month if they stabilize by October [4]. - Polyester inventory levels are relatively low, with POY at 17 days, FDY at 25 days, short fibers at 12 days, and polyester chips at 7.5 days as of August 14 [4]. - The anticipated demand recovery during the "Golden September and Silver October" period may support profit recovery for polyester products, while PTA continues to face supply pressure from new capacities [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The expectation for the recovery of steel profitability under the "anti-involution" trend is primarily driven by upstream iron ore concessions, contrasting with the previous cycle where concessions came from downstream [2][6] - The anticipated improvement in the steel industry's supply-demand balance could enhance long-term profitability, although there are ongoing doubts about the sustainability of this recovery [6][28] - The analysis indicates that the profit distribution within the industry chain has shifted significantly, with iron ore now having a stronger capacity to offer concessions, which could benefit the steel sector [7][29] Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - Downstream demand has weakened, with apparent consumption of five major steel products increasing by 3.60% year-on-year but decreasing by 2.06% month-on-month [5] - Daily average pig iron production has slightly increased to 2.4066 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 12.04% [5] - Total steel inventory has continued to accumulate, with a week-on-week increase of 3.01% but a year-on-year decrease of 18.13% [5] Price Trends - Recent price trends show Shanghai rebar dropping to 3,300 CNY/ton, a decrease of 30 CNY/ton, and hot-rolled steel at 3,430 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton [5] - The estimated profit for rebar is 37 CNY/ton, while the profit based on a one-month lag in costs is 243 CNY/ton [5] Future Projections - The report projects that if the supply-demand gap improves by 50 million tons, the average price of rebar could increase by 164.87 CNY/ton [7] - A decrease in iron ore prices by 15 USD/ton could lead to a reduction in steel production costs by 210 CNY/ton [7] - The overall expectation is that iron ore price declines will primarily benefit the steel sector, with only a small portion passed on to downstream industries [7][29] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from cost reductions due to new capacities in iron and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Baosteel [28] 2. Stocks with low price-to-book ratios that may see significant performance recovery, like New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [29] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform initiative [29] 4. High-quality processing leaders and resource companies, particularly in the context of macroeconomic recovery expectations [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao Coal - Sideways [1] - Coke - Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of tariffs has risen again. Although the extension of the suspension of Sino - US tariffs for another 90 days is likely to be implemented, there are still some variables. With the approaching delivery of the near - month contract, the market is expected to return to the fundamentals [4]. - For Jiao Coal, the mine - end production continues to decline, but the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants has increased. The inventory transfer from upstream to downstream has slowed down. For Coke, the sixth round of spot price increase has started, and further price increases depend on whether downstream steel products can raise prices [4]. - From the perspective of steel profit distribution in the industrial chain, Jiao Coal is relatively overvalued compared to downstream steel products. In the short term, with the implementation of steel mill production restrictions in the north, the raw material trend may be weaker than that of steel products again. It is recommended to hold long positions in J01/JM01 lightly and beware of callback risks [5]. Summary by Directory Jiao Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 523 mines is 83.89% (-2.42), and the capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants is 36.22% (+1.19). The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.75% (+0.27) [2]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 245.66 million tons (-2.6), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 288.11 million tons (+2.1), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 808.66 million tons (+4.87), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 832.75 million tons (-11.31), and the port inventory is 277.34 million tons (-4.77) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 1,150 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1,227 yuan/ton (-2.5), the basis is -57 yuan/ton (+2.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -157.5 yuan/ton (-15) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.75% (+0.27), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.09% (-0.15), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4032 million tons (-0.39) [3]. Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 44.63 million tons (-1.89), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 619.28 million tons (-7.41), and the port inventory is 218.15 million tons (+3.05) [3]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1,470 yuan/ton (+0), the active contract is 1,653.5 yuan/ton (-14), the basis is -73 yuan/ton (+14), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -80.5 yuan/ton (-4). The sixth round of price increase has started [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coke is "Bullish", and for coking coal is also "Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints - Macro events are mostly settled, reducing future uncertainties. The Politburo meeting shows optimism about the economy, and the Sino-US-Sweden meeting has limited substantial outcomes. The real estate financing situation has improved in July, which may repair market pessimism [4] - For coking coal, the long - term agreement price of major coking coal from Shanxi large mines has increased, the spot price is firm, the mine start - up is slow, downstream replenishment is active, and inventory is transferring from upstream to downstream [4] - For coke, the sixth round of spot price increase has started, the futures price is close to the spot price, and further price increase depends on the rise of downstream steel prices. The coke demand remains resilient, the coke enterprises' inventory is decreasing, and the port's term - hedging positions are increasing [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal 1. Market Conditions - Spot prices are stable, and futures prices are rebounding. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 1,229.5 yuan/ton (+8.5), the basis is - 59.5 yuan/ton (-8.5), and the September - January spread is - 142.5 yuan/ton (+4.5) [2] 2. Supply and Demand - Supply and demand have slightly declined. The operating rate of 523 mines is 86.31% (-0.59), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 61.51% (-0.8), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.48% (-0.13) [2] 3. Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 248.26 million tons (-30.18), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 166.38 million tons (-9.23), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 803.79 million tons (+4.28), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 844.06 million tons (+2.85), and the port inventory is 282.11 million tons (-10.23) [2] Coke 1. Market Conditions - The sixth round of spot price increase has started, and futures prices are rebounding. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1,470 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 1,667.5 yuan/ton (+23), the basis is - 87 yuan/ton (-23), and the September - January spread is - 76.5 yuan/ton (+11.5) [3] 2. Supply and Demand - Supply and demand are flat month - on - month, but there is still a gap. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.48% (-0.13), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.24% (-0.57), and the daily average hot metal output is 240.71 million tons (-1.52) [3] 3. Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, downstream inventory is changing, and port inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 46.52 million tons (-3.6), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 626.69 million tons (-13.29), and the port inventory is 215.1 million tons (+16.97) [3] Strategy Suggestions - With the reduction of macro uncertainties, the market will return to the industrial logic. It is recommended to reduce the long positions of J01/JM01 and add positions after the callback. The coking coal market may remain strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the adjustment risk [4][5]