Core Viewpoint - The Vietnamese National Assembly Standing Committee has passed an amendment to Article 10 of the Population Law, allowing couples and individuals to autonomously decide on childbirth timing, number of children, and spacing based on various personal factors, effective immediately [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Legislative Changes - The amendment to Article 10 of the Population Law enables couples and individuals to make reproductive decisions based on equality principles, considering factors such as age, health, education, work nature, income level, and parenting ability [1] Demographic Projections - Vietnam's "golden population period" is expected to end in 2039, with the working-age population projected to peak in 2042, followed by a decline in population growth after 2054 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe population decline in Northeast China, particularly highlighting the loss of over 11 million people in the last decade, which has significant implications for the region's economic and demographic landscape [5][6][10]. Population Decline Overview - The total population of the three northeastern provinces has decreased by 820,000, marking the highest decline in the country [4]. - From 2014 to 2024, Northeast China has cumulatively lost 11.07 million people, returning to population levels not seen since the 1980s [5][10]. - The population decline is uneven across the provinces, with Liaoning losing 2.23 million, Jilin 4.29 million, and Heilongjiang 8.04 million [13]. Factors Contributing to Population Decline - Heilongjiang has experienced a population decrease of 8 million over 14 years, attributed to the lowest birth rate in the country and a lack of strong urban centers to retain residents [17][18]. - The province's birth rate in 2023 was only 2.92‰, significantly lower than that of Japan and South Korea [18]. - The lack of a strong provincial capital to attract and retain population contrasts with other provinces where major cities have managed to maintain or grow their populations [20][22]. Economic Implications - Northeast China lacks a city with a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan and a population over 10 million, which are critical for economic vitality [32]. - Recent investments from state-owned enterprises and favorable geopolitical changes have led to economic recovery, with Dalian and Shenyang both surpassing 900 billion yuan in GDP [34][35]. - However, the challenge remains to attract and retain population, as the region's overall population continues to decline [41]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that for Northeast China to reverse its population decline, it needs to cultivate new industries and retain young people [30]. - The region's only cities with positive population growth are Dalian, Shenyang, and Changchun, but they face significant hurdles in reaching the 10 million population mark [39][44]. - The competition for population is intensifying, with major cities across the country vying for talent, making it difficult for Northeast cities to attract new residents [42].

Core Viewpoint - The article forecasts that China's economy will face a dual contraction in supply and demand in 2025, with demand contraction expected to be greater than supply contraction, leading to overall economic performance remaining below potential levels [2][4][34]. Economic Review of 2024 - China's GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 5.0%, successfully meeting the annual target, but showing a decline from 2023 [5][4]. - The total GDP for 2024 is estimated at 13,490.84 billion RMB, with quarterly growth rates fluctuating throughout the year [5]. - Effective demand remains insufficient, significantly impacting GDP growth, with consumption and investment both showing signs of weakness [5][9]. Supply Side Analysis - Industrial output in 2024 is expected to grow by 5.8%, indicating a recovery in the industrial economy, with variations across different types of enterprises and regions [6][7]. - High-tech industries are identified as key growth points for future industrial development [7]. Demand Side Analysis - Social retail sales are projected to grow by 3.5% in 2024, reflecting a decline in consumer spending compared to previous years [8]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to increase by 3.2%, but with a downward trend throughout the year, particularly in real estate, which is projected to decline by 10.6% [9][10]. Price Trends - The inflation rate is expected to remain low, with CPI growth at 0.2% and PPI at -2.2%, indicating ongoing demand insufficiency [10][11]. Monetary and Financial Conditions - New RMB loans are projected to decrease significantly, with a total of 18.09 trillion RMB in new loans, reflecting a 20.46% decline from 2023 [12][13]. - M2 growth is expected at 7.3%, indicating a stable but low level of liquidity in the market [13]. Factors Influencing 2025 Economic Outlook - Population decline and aging are expected to exacerbate labor shortages and economic growth challenges [15]. - Weak market expectations and ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in U.S.-China relations, are anticipated to hinder economic recovery [16][20][22]. Natural Economic Trends for 2025 - Consumption is expected to show a slight increase, driven by policy support and consumer demand for upgrades [23]. - Investment growth is projected to stabilize, influenced by prior policy effects and ongoing structural adjustments [25]. - Export and import totals are expected to rise, although geopolitical tensions may pose challenges [26]. Supply Side Trends - The potential growth rate is likely to decline due to demographic changes, technological restrictions, and fluctuating energy prices [27]. - Labor force participation is expected to decrease, further impacting economic output [28]. Summary of Economic Challenges - The economy is projected to face dual contractions in supply and demand, with GDP growth potentially declining compared to 2024 [34]. - Key risks include real estate market instability, local government debt issues, and international geopolitical tensions [35][36][40]. Policy Outlook for 2025 - The GDP growth target is set around 5.0%, with CPI growth aimed at approximately 3% [42][43]. - Employment pressures are expected to increase, with a target of over 12 million new urban jobs [44]. - A combination of demand and supply management policies will be implemented to stimulate economic growth [46].

Core Insights - The article discusses the population changes across various provinces in China for the year 2024, highlighting significant trends in population growth and decline among different regions [1][5]. Group 1: Population Growth and Decline - 28 provinces have reported their permanent resident population data for the end of 2024, with 8 provinces experiencing population growth, 2 remaining stable, and 18 witnessing declines [1]. - Guangdong has reclaimed its position as the province with the highest population increase, adding 740,000 residents, surpassing Zhejiang [6][7]. - Shandong has seen the largest population decline, losing 428,000 residents in 2023, marking it as the province with the most significant drop [1][6]. Group 2: Regional Analysis - In the central region, only Anhui has reported a population increase, while the other five provinces collectively lost 960,000 residents [5][13]. - Sichuan and Henan, both major economic provinces, have also experienced population declines, with Sichuan losing 40,000 and Henan losing 300,000 residents [10][13]. - The northeastern provinces, particularly Liaoning and Jilin, which had seen a brief population inflow in 2023, are now again facing outflows, with Liaoning losing 49,000 and Jilin losing 108,000 residents in 2024 [17][21]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Population Changes - Population changes are influenced by both natural growth (births minus deaths) and migration patterns [5][6]. - Guangdong's population growth is attributed to a high birth rate, with 1.13 million births in the previous year, making it the only province with over a million births [6][7]. - In contrast, Shandong's population decline is exacerbated by a net outflow of over 430,000 residents in two years, raising concerns about its population potentially falling below 100 million [9][17]. Group 4: Policy Responses - Jiangsu has introduced 15 measures to promote childbirth, including direct financial support for families [8]. - Both Hunan and Hubei are implementing strategies to attract and retain young talent, focusing on improving living conditions and reducing the cost of raising children [15].

以下文章来源于城市财经 ，作者余飞 城市财经 . 坐标深圳！一个用数据说话、图文并茂的全国楼市头部自媒体。 商业洞察视频号开通啦 欢迎关注并留下您睿智犀利的评论吧 作者：余飞 ----------------------------------------- - - 来源：城市财经（ID：City-Finance） 01 结婚人数，继续创新低了 11月1日，国家民政部公布了《2024年3季度民政统计数据》，披露了一组结婚数据： 2024年前三季度， 全国结婚对数474.7万对，离婚对数196.7万对。 | 指 | 标 | 单 位 | 数 | 메 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一、民政事业费累计支出 | | 亿元 | | 3518. 8 | | 二、乡级行政区划单位 | | | | | | 镇 | | 个 | | 21 432 | | ਜੇ | | 个 | | 7060 | | 民族乡 | | 个 | | 956 | | 苏木 | | 个 | | 153 | | 民族苏木 | | 个 | | 1 | | 街道 | | 个 | | 9084 | | 区公所 | | 个 | ...