"我在国外出差，晚上微信语音联系。"近日，记者联系广西二手车商吴先生时，他正在泰国考察当地二手车市场。他告诉记者，因为国内的二手车生 意做得越来越"难受"，所以决定走出去看看，听同行推荐第一站选择到东南亚市场考察。对于国内二手车市场的现状，他用四个字总结——购销两难。 去年在国家"两新"政策拉动下，二手车在四季度迎来回暖，全年艰难迈过1900万辆门槛，实现同比6.52％的增幅。然而今年以来，"两新"政策继续加 力扩围，但直接利好尚未传导至二手车市场。 中国汽车流通协会数据显示，1～4月，全国二手车市场累计交易量630.86万辆，同比微增0.47％，与同期相比增加了2.93万辆，累计交易金额为 4134.37亿元，同比减少了116.24亿元。4月，全国二手车市场交易量170.13万辆，环比下降3.05％，同比增长1.33％。整体交易量同比微涨，但交易金额却 在下滑，这背后是一家家二手车经营企业盈利承压。 二手车乘用车市场不景气 "经济适用型的新车与二手车的价格接近倒挂现象，在今年表现得格外突出。考虑到以旧换新补贴不低，消费者当然更倾向于买新车了。"吴先生 说，"目前来看，以旧换新政策的置换补贴对二手车析出的刺激 ...

期货研究报告|天然橡胶专题 2025-05-21 我国重卡以旧换新政策回顾 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 陈莉 联系人 杨露露 吴硕琮 刘启展 从业资格号：F03140168 020-83901005 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 2009 年我国先后两次发布《汽车以旧换新实施办法》以及《关于调整汽车以旧换新补 贴标准有关事项的通知》。2009 年 7 月 1 日，提出对重型载货车，大型载客车，1.35 及以上排量车进行以旧换新补贴，补贴金额为 0.3-0.6 万元/辆。到了 2009 年 12 月 1 日，延长补贴时间的同时加大补贴；以上同样车型补贴回升到 0.5-1.8 万元/辆。以上 政策实施，对于 2010 年重卡的销量拉动较为明显，国内重卡销量增速从 2009 年的同 比增速 2.27%大幅上升到 37.7%。而同一时期，汽车销量的同比增加是下降的。说明以 旧换新 ...

5月9日，沪深两市成交额达1.29万亿元，较前一交易日缩量1749亿元。军工、铜缆高速连接等板块涨幅 居前，PEEK材料、农业等板块跌幅较大。截至收盘，沪指涨0.28%，深成指涨0.93%，创业板指涨 1.65%。 银河证券认为，汽车市场高景气有望延续。2025年第一季度汽车行业指数相对于沪深300指数上涨 12.51%。以旧换新补贴政策驱动下，汽车市场销量增长显著。公募基金对汽车板块的持仓占比已连续 五个季度实现环比增长，达到历史新高。展望第二季度，上海车展多款新能源新品亮相，有望进一步推 动消费者购车热情，释放市场需求。 中金公司表示，当前白酒需求景气度处于历史低位，但向下风险有限。政策宽松为消费回暖提供基础， 预计更多托底政策将助力白酒需求稳步筑底回升。未来白酒需求或以较慢斜率小幅回升，短期大众需求 偏刚性，宴席需求有望有所表现。全年白酒业绩在三四季度低基数支撑下或呈先抑后扬走势。 开源证券指出，央国企整合与硬科技并购成为本轮并购重组浪潮的核心趋势。国企改革政策支持、产业 转型升级等因素驱动下，央国企有望主导新一轮并购重组。支持科技型企业并购重组的相关政策频繁发 布，重点支持关键核心技术攻关企业。寻找潜 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 短期毛利率下滑、盈利水平承压。1）毛利率：25Q1 公司毛利率 45.5%，同比-11.0pct。2）费率端：25Q1 销售/管理费/研发/财务 费率分别为 27.8%/2.6%/7.8%/-2.2%，同比变动+7.0pct/-0.1pct/- 2.8pct/-1.4pct。销售费用率提升较多主要系公司加强海内外拓展， 以及为了提升在市场导入期的新品类的市场占有率。3）净利率： 25Q1 净利率 7.8%，同比-13.9pct。 海外生产实力逐步增强，积极市场策略下销售结构、渠道布局有望 进一步优化。生产能力方面，公司采用自建工厂和国内外代工厂相 结合的方式，完善供应链布局，面对贸易摩擦，目前公司海外产能 布局可覆盖美国市场半数以上并在持续快速爬坡。未来公司将持续 丰富产品矩阵及价格矩阵，推进产品结构升级，同时通过积极的市 场策略，进一步优化销售结构和渠道布局，助力业务向更好、更高 质量发展迈进。 盈利预测与投资建议。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别 为 20.8/25.4/30.7 亿元，同比+5.2% ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 石头科技（688169.SH） 积极市场策略下收入进一步提速，短期盈利水平下滑 风险提示：消费恢复不及预期、行业竞争加剧、新品开拓不及预期。 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 8,654 | 11,945 | 16,060 | 19,355 | 22,995 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 30.5 | 38.0 | 34.5 | 20.5 | 18.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,051 | 1,977 | 2,080 | 2,542 | 3,071 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 73.3 | -3.6 | 5.2 | 22.2 | 20.8 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元/股） | 11.10 | 10.70 | 11.26 | 13.76 | 16.63 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 18.0 | 15.4 | 14.1 | 14.9 ...

央视网消息："五一"假期将至，人们的出行意愿日渐攀升，消费市场持续火热，不断激发出消费新活力。 "火车向着景区开" 旅游热线受追捧 从车票预售情况分析，旅游热门线路受追捧。"火车向着景区开"成为新趋势。临近假期，北京、郑州、广州、新疆等地提前开行银发旅游列车。"五一"前 夕，郑州至开封间新型城际动车组列车上线运营。"五一"假期，还将有"熊猫专列""丝路号"等多个品牌旅游列车开行。同时，旅游列车还与沿线酒店、景 区、餐饮企业联动，拓展旅游消费新场景。 休渔期前 市民开启囤货模式 从5月1日12时起，东海将全面进入休渔期。许多市民在休渔期前开启"囤货"模式。在浙江宁波的一处水产摊位前，记者看到，鲳鱼、黄鱼、带鱼等海鲜一应 俱全，受到顾客的青睐。 市场工作人员表示，休渔期间，冻品海鲜、养殖类海鲜以及水产品的供应充足，可以满足市民消费需求。 为了缓解部分场馆和景区"一票难求"的情况，一些地方还通过扩容扩时等举措，来满足游客需求。在陕西，秦始皇帝陵博物院将开始检票时间由早上8:30提 前至7:00，停止检票时间由17:00推迟至19:00，门票数量日均增加1.5万张。白鹿原影视城、华清宫等多个景区自2025年4月28日 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 17.10 CNY for the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in overseas sales, with a year-on-year increase of 15.8% in Q1, driven by robust demand for small household appliances and increased inventory needs due to uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies [2]. - Domestic sales have shown marginal improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 4.9% in Q1, compared to a decline of 11.2% in Q4 2024, supported by government subsidies for replacing old appliances [2]. - The company's profitability has improved, with a net profit margin of 6.4% in Q1, up by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to better investment returns and a favorable exchange rate [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.82 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit of 1.05 billion CNY, up by 7.7% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.83 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit of 0.25 billion CNY, up by 43.0% [1][3]. - The company's gross profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better cost management and product mix [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing government subsidies for small household appliances, which will likely enhance domestic sales [4]. - The establishment of a manufacturing base in Indonesia is anticipated to mitigate trade policy risks and support stable growth in overseas sales [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 1.43 CNY, 1.62 CNY, and 1.88 CNY respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [7].

Core Viewpoint - Shun'an Environment reported a strong Q1 performance with revenue of 3.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220 million yuan, up 4.3% year-on-year, driven by the old-for-new subsidy policy stimulating domestic air conditioning sales [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 revenue reached 3.02 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.0% year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 220 million yuan, representing a 4.3% year-on-year increase [1] - The company's net profit margin for Q1 was 7.2%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising copper prices [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The old-for-new subsidy policy has positively impacted air conditioning sales, leading to increased demand for upstream valve components [1] - Industry sales data shows that the sales of key components like shut-off valves, four-way valves, and electronic expansion valves increased by 7.1%, 7.5%, and 14.4% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Looking ahead, the combination of national subsidy policies and the peak season for air conditioning is expected to further stimulate sales performance [1] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - Q1 operating cash flow net amount was 150 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 118.4% [2] - The company managed to reduce cash payments for goods and services by 18.2% year-on-year, while cash received from sales increased by 1.0% [2] - The company's cash balance at the end of the period was 2.9 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year, indicating a strong liquidity position [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its rapid revenue growth, with projections for EPS of 1.05, 1.17, and 1.35 yuan for 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company is actively expanding into high-margin commercial refrigeration components and automotive thermal management businesses, which is anticipated to improve profitability [2] - A target price of 15.68 yuan is set based on a 15 times dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" with a target price of 15.68 yuan for the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a Q1 revenue of 3.02 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220 million yuan, up 4.3% year-over-year [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to the continued stimulus from the old-for-new subsidy policy, which has boosted domestic air conditioning sales [1]. - Despite the revenue growth, the company's profitability has been under pressure due to rising raw material prices, particularly copper [2]. Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - Q1 revenue increased significantly, driven by the old-for-new subsidy policy, with upstream valve component demand also improving [1]. - The company’s Q1 net profit margin was 7.2%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to rising copper prices [2]. Financial Metrics - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1 was 150 million yuan, a substantial increase of 118.4% year-over-year, attributed to a decrease in cash paid for goods and services [2]. - The company’s cash balance at the end of the period was 2.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.4% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue expanding its high-margin commercial refrigeration components and automotive thermal management business, which may improve profitability [2]. - Forecasted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.05 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.35 yuan respectively, with a projected revenue growth rate of approximately 12.1% for 2025 [4][13].