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新能源车需求跟踪:国内插混销量首次负增长,商用车、海外增速亮眼
Minmetals Securities· 2025-08-20 05:22
Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The UK government has reintroduced purchase subsidy policies for electric vehicles, which is expected to increase the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles to 26% [2][20] - Domestic plug-in hybrid vehicle sales have experienced a negative growth for the first time, while commercial vehicles and exports show strong performance [3][40] - The report highlights significant growth in electric vehicle sales in Europe and other regions, with a notable increase in the US market [3][78] Monthly Focus - The UK has launched multiple subsidy policies for electric vehicles, including a purchase subsidy that will provide £3,750 or £1,500 for eligible vehicles starting from July 2025, with a total budget of £650 million [10][14] - The reintroduction of subsidies is driven by the UK's stringent regulations under the "Zero Emission Vehicle Directive," which mandates that 80% of new car sales must be zero-emission vehicles by 2030 [15][20] - The expected impact of the subsidy policy is an increase in the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles from 24% to 26%, benefiting manufacturers with production capabilities in Europe and the UK [2][21] Key Data Tracking - In July, domestic plug-in hybrid vehicle retail sales decreased by 4% year-on-year, marking the first decline since the surge of new energy vehicles [3][35] - Commercial vehicle sales continue to grow at a high rate, with penetration rates exceeding 20% for four consecutive months [40] - Exports of new energy vehicles have maintained high growth since 2025, particularly driven by significant increases in exports from BYD and Chery [47][55] Industry and Company Changes - Major state-owned enterprises in China, such as Changan and FAW Group, have set targets for new energy vehicle sales to exceed 60% by 2030 [4] - New models featuring plug-in hybrid and range-extended technologies have been launched by companies like Zeekr and IM Motors [4] - Collaborations between Huawei and various brands are expected to yield new models, with several set to launch in the near future [4]
国信证券:新品密集上市有望提振板块景气度 建议关注车企财报行情
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 02:26
Group 1: Market Performance - In June 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.084 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6% [1] - Cumulative retail sales from January to June 2025 amounted to 10.901 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.8% [1] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in June 2025 were 1.111 million units, up 29.7% year-on-year and 8.2% month-on-month [1] Group 2: Stock Market Trends - In June, the CS automotive sector declined by 0.13%, with the CS passenger vehicle index falling by 2.34% [2] - The CS automotive sector has increased by 28.88% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.17 percentage points [2] Group 3: Cost Tracking - As of the end of June 2025, the prices of float glass, aluminum ingots, and zinc ingots changed by -27.3%, +2.3%, and -6.4% year-on-year, respectively [3] Group 4: Inventory Levels - The inventory warning index for Chinese automotive dealers in May 2025 was 52.7%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year and 7.1 percentage points month-on-month [4] Group 5: Market Focus - The launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service and the acceleration of domestic Robotaxi deployment are key developments [5] - New models to watch include Li Auto i8, Zeekr 9X, Leapmotor C11, and others [5]