据日本广播协会9日报道，日本首相高市早苗领导的自民党在8日的国会众议院选举中赢得316个席位， 超过总数的三分之二。这意味着，自民党扭转了此前在国会中"跛脚鸭"的状态，有能力单独通过法案。 日本国会大厦 （资料图） 2024年10月，时任日本首相石破茂解散众议院后，自民党在选举中惨败，仅拿到191个席位，远低于半 数，只能通过与日本维新会组成执政联盟并争取无党派议员的方式勉强"凑齐"过半数的233个席位。 2025年7月，自民党在国会参议院选举中再次惨败，在野党占据多数席位，石破茂被迫下台。 日本媒体指出，高市早苗此次解散国会众议院到重新选举历时仅16天，也从侧面反映出她急于扭转自民 党在国会的"跛脚"局面。 （资料图） 清华大学国际关系学系教授刘江永在接受中新社记者采访时说，高市早苗无疑会继续顽固推行修宪、扩 军等既定路线。但自民党在参议院依然是少数党，而下一次参议院选举要到2028年7月。有鉴于此，高 市早苗立即推动修宪的可能性不大，但一定会持续鼓噪、制造舆论。此外，尽管在野党呈现"合而不 强"的状态，但长期来看，这股力量将继续存在，日本朝野的政治较量也不会因为一次选战的胜负而息 止。 据日本《读卖新闻》 ...

对于高市的修宪图谋，中道改革联合（由立宪民主党和公明党组建的新党）的联合党首野田佳彦2日 称："我将坚持'无核三原则'，必须建设不再度引发战争、不被卷入战争的国家。" 隶属日本共产党的东京都北区议员山崎泰子3日发文批评称，若自民党赢得选举多数席位，将强行推进 军事大规模扩张、重新审视"无核三原则"并修改宪法。她呼吁道："是时候正视自民党的违宪政治路线 了，他们竟然容忍解禁集体自卫权的行为，我们必须采取以宪法为基础、守护和平与人权民生的政治立 场。" 中国国际问题研究院亚太所特聘研究员项昊宇3日告诉《环球时报》记者，高市此时重提修宪，意在为 其政治议程寻求突破口，虽然修宪本身属于日本内政范畴，但其外溢效应值得警惕，日本右翼势力可能 基于错误历史认知，借修宪之机突破战后国际秩序约束，冲击军事安全禁区，进而破坏地区和平稳定。 项昊宇说，无论日本选择何种路径，最终都将自行承担相应后果，"中国有信心、有能力维护自身安全 与地区稳定，不惧任何挑战"。 【环球时报报道 记者 徐可越 王辉】日本第51届众议院选举将于本月8日投计票。据《日本经济新闻》2 日报道，日本首相、自民党总裁高市早苗当日明确表达修改宪法、将自卫队写入条 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Kishi, is considering an early dissolution of the House of Representatives to strengthen its political position and expedite policy implementation, amidst internal party disagreements and deteriorating relations with China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Political Context - There are two proposed timelines for the early dissolution of the House of Representatives: one for January 27 public announcement and February 8 voting, and another for February 3 public announcement and February 15 voting [2][15]. - The ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), currently holds 233 out of 465 seats in the House, barely maintaining a majority, while it remains a minority in the Senate, creating a "distorted parliament" situation [2][3]. - The opposition parties have expressed differing views on the potential dissolution, with some indicating readiness for an election if it occurs [2][3]. Group 2: Economic and Diplomatic Implications - Analysts suggest that Kishi's motivations for an early election include seeking public support for economic policies, breaking the Senate minority deadlock, and addressing the crisis in Japan-China relations [2][3][4]. - Recent Chinese export controls on dual-use items, including potential restrictions on rare earth materials, have heightened concerns within the Japanese government regarding the impact on domestic politics and the economy [3][4]. - The potential for negative events during the new parliamentary session could pose significant risks to Kishi's administration, prompting discussions around the necessity of an early election [3][4]. Group 3: Military and Security Developments - Despite uncertainties regarding the early election, the Japanese government is advancing its military capabilities, particularly in the Pacific, as part of its revised security strategy [4][5]. - The focus on enhancing Japan's defense capabilities is seen as a response to increasing Chinese military activities in the region, with plans for infrastructure improvements to support the Self-Defense Forces [5]. - This military strategy has raised concerns about Japan's role in regional geopolitics, with implications for its relations with China and overall regional stability [5].

据日本《读卖新闻》1月10日报道，日本首相高市早苗日前已开始考虑在定于23日召开的国会例会开幕 之际解散众议院。众议院选举极有可能在2月上中旬举行。高市认为，执政党在参议院一直处于少数， 有必要获得政策实现的推动力。 据报道，日本政府相关人士透露了上述情况。众议院选举的日程方案包括"1月27日发布公告—2月8日投 票"和"2月3日发布公告—2月15日投票"。 高市一直主张要"做强经济"和实施"负责任的积极财政"，希望就自身的经济政策获得国民的信任。 预计修宪也将成为选举战的焦点。自民党和日本维新会在联合执政协议中明确写道，将制定创设紧急事 态条款的修宪条文方案，并力争在2026年度提交国会。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 自民党在众议院有199个席位，与维新会合计共233席。虽然勉强恢复了过半数（233席），但在参议院 仍处于少数，呈现"朝野政党分控两院"状态。 报道称，自高市就台湾问题在国会作出回应以来，中国加大了对日本的经济压力。高市似乎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The provocative remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan signify a significant shift in Japan's political spectrum towards the right, revealing the resurgence of long-suppressed right-wing conservatism in Japan's political landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Right-Wing Ideology - Takaichi's strong right-wing stance is driven by a revival of Japanese nationalism, rooted in pre-war ideologies that reject the acknowledgment of Japan's wartime aggression and seek to restore national pride and military normalization [4][6]. - The political landscape has shifted since the 1980s, with the decline of the "55-year system" leading to a rise in right-wing conservatism, particularly under the leadership of figures like Shinzo Abe [4][5]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Takaichi's political alignment closely mirrors that of Abe, characterized by historical revisionism, a push for constitutional amendments, and a hawkish stance towards China [5][6]. - The current political environment in Japan is marked by a rightward shift within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), where hardline positions on defense and foreign policy have become the norm [9]. Group 3: External Threat Perception - The perception of external threats, particularly from China, has overshadowed traditional pacifist sentiments in Japan, leading to a fundamental change in political narratives and policies [8]. - The 2022 security policy changes, including the commitment to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP, reflect a significant departure from post-war security principles [8]. Group 4: Populism and Political Mobilization - Takaichi's remarks resonate with a growing populist sentiment in Japan, leveraging anti-China rhetoric to galvanize support among nationalist factions [10][11]. - The rise of online right-wing movements has amplified exclusionary nationalist sentiments, allowing Takaichi and similar politicians to bypass traditional media and directly engage with their base [10][11]. Group 5: Implications for Japan's Future - The combination of resurgent right-wing ideology, a shifting political landscape, and rising populism poses significant challenges for Japan's political stability and international relations [12]. - Takaichi's provocative stance on Taiwan is seen as a manifestation of deeper issues within Japan's political fabric, potentially leading to increased tensions in the region [12].

Group 1: Core Insights - High Sannae has been elected as Japan's 104th Prime Minister, becoming the first female Prime Minister in Japan's history [1] - She is a close ally of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and is seen as a staunch successor to his policies [1] - High has a history of holding various significant positions in the government, including Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications and Minister for Economic Security [1] Group 2: Policy Positions - High advocates for a strong conservative stance, emphasizing the restoration of traditional Japanese values, constitutional reform, and enhanced national security [2] - In economic policy, she promotes "active fiscal" measures, including tax cuts and increased local government support to address rising prices [2] - Her foreign policy aims to continue Abe's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy, focusing on strengthening cooperation with ASEAN and global southern countries [2] Group 3: Security and Immigration Policies - High proposes to strengthen the Self-Defense Forces and improve the treatment of self-defense personnel, while not ruling out increased defense spending at the request of the United States [2] - On immigration, she supports stricter controls on illegal immigrants and intends to scrutinize foreign capital inflows [3] - High's historical perspective is notably right-leaning, with a history of visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, which may create diplomatic tensions in East Asia [3]

Group 1: Diplomatic and Security Policies - President Lee Jae-myung emphasizes a practical diplomacy centered on national interests, aiming to strengthen the Korea-U.S. alliance while improving relations with China and Russia [1][10] - Lee's administration has taken measures to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula, including stopping the illegal distribution of leaflets to North Korea and halting loudspeaker broadcasts [3][4] - The importance of restoring summit diplomacy with China is highlighted, as it has been over 11 years since a Chinese president visited South Korea [11] Group 2: Economic Challenges - The South Korean economy is facing significant challenges, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and trade wars, leading to a decline in the economic conditions of ordinary citizens [6] - Lee's government plans to issue universal subsidies to stimulate consumption and address structural economic issues [6] - There is a concern that South Korea is losing competitiveness in key industries such as semiconductors, shipbuilding, and automotive, which are crucial for its economy [6] Group 3: Domestic Political Landscape - The political landscape in South Korea is still recovering from the previous administration's controversies, with ongoing investigations into former President Yoon Suk-yeol and his associates [4][5] - Lee Jae-myung's administration is expected to push for constitutional reforms, including changes to presidential terms and power-sharing arrangements [5] - The process of constitutional reform is anticipated to be lengthy and requires consensus between the ruling and opposition parties [5]

Group 1 - The South Korean presidential election is entering its final week, with candidates Lee Jae-myung, Kim Moon-soo, and Lee Jun-suk in a competitive three-way race [1][2] - A final televised debate took place on the evening of the 27th, focusing on political polarization and candidates' platforms on political reform, foreign policy, and national security [1][2] - Polls indicate that Lee Jae-myung leads with a support rate of 49%, followed by Kim Moon-soo at 35% and Lee Jun-suk at 11%, with Lee Jae-myung maintaining his support level compared to earlier in the month [2][3] Group 2 - Lee Jae-myung emphasized the importance of the Korea-U.S. alliance in his foreign policy, advocating for substantial and future-oriented cooperation with the U.S. and Japan while also recognizing the significance of relations with China and Russia [2][3] - Concerns from Japan regarding Lee Jae-myung's potential presidency stem from his previous criticisms of past administrations' approaches to Japan, although he has recently softened his stance to attract centrist voters [3][4] - Investigations into former President Yoon Suk-yeol's emergency measures continue, with police taking action against former officials suspected of involvement in internal unrest [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming South Korean presidential election is shaping up with a clear "three strong candidates" dynamic, focusing on economic issues and potential constitutional reforms [1][2][3] Group 1: Election Candidates and Dynamics - The main candidates are Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party, Kim Moon-soo from the People Power Party, and Lee Jun-suk from the Reform New Party, with Lee Jae-myung currently leading in polls [1][3] - Lee Jae-myung's support rate has surpassed 50%, reaching 51%, while Kim Moon-soo stands at 29%, and Lee Jun-suk is at 8% [3] Group 2: Economic Debate and Responsibilities - The initial debate focused on the South Korean economy, with candidates blaming each other for the current economic downturn, particularly targeting the policies of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration [2] - Lee Jae-myung proposed constitutional reforms to enhance presidential accountability, suggesting a four-year term with the possibility of re-election [2] Group 3: Constitutional Reform Proposals - Kim Moon-soo welcomed Lee Jae-myung's proposal and suggested shortening the presidential term to three years to align with the National Assembly election cycle, aiming for decisive political reform [2]

Group 1 - The South Korean Supreme Court overturned a previous not guilty verdict against presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung, sending the case back for retrial [1] - Following the Supreme Court's decision, acting President Han Duck-soo and Economic Vice Minister Choi Sang-mok resigned from their positions [1] - The acting presidency will now be assumed by Education Minister Lee Joo-ho, as Choi Sang-mok also resigned [1] Group 2 - Han Duck-soo officially announced his candidacy for the 21st presidential election during a press conference, emphasizing the need for political reform in South Korea [3] - He proposed three key campaign promises: immediate constitutional amendments, addressing trade issues arising from U.S. tariffs, and national unity [3] - Han plans to draft a constitutional amendment in his first year if elected, complete it in the second year, and hold a presidential election under the new constitution in the third year [3][4]