1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the bond custody data for April 2025, indicating that the total bond custody increased less month - on - month. All types of bonds saw a net increase in custody. Except for policy banks which significantly reduced their bond custody, other major bond market institutions increased their holdings. The bond market leverage ratio decreased month - on - month [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased less month - on - month. As of the end of April 2025, the total bond custody of CCDC and SHCH was 167.82 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.61 trillion yuan month - on - month, 1.05 trillion yuan less than the month - on - month increase in March [1][11]. - All types of bonds had a net increase in custody. Interest - rate bonds had a custody of 114.03 trillion yuan, accounting for 67.95% of the inter - bank bond market custody, with a net increase of 0.99 trillion yuan; credit bonds had a custody of 18.35 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.94%, with a net increase of 0.07 trillion yuan; non - policy financial bonds had a custody of 11.95 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.12%, with a net increase of 0.18 trillion yuan; and inter - bank certificates of deposit had a custody of 21.56 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.85%, with a net increase of 0.38 trillion yuan [1][11]. 3.2 Bond Holder Structure and Changes 3.2.1 Changes in Custody by Institution Month - on - Month - Policy banks increased their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit and major credit products while significantly reducing their holdings of major interest - rate products. - Commercial banks continuously increased their holdings of major interest - rate products and credit products while continuously reducing their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit. - Credit unions increased their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit and reduced their holdings of major interest - rate products and credit products. - Insurance institutions and securities companies continuously increased their holdings of major interest - rate products and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit and major credit products. - Non - legal person products and overseas institutions showed comprehensive increases in holdings [2][25]. 3.2.2 Changes in Custody by Bond Type Month - on - Month - Treasury bond custody continued to increase month - on - month. Policy banks continuously reduced their holdings, while commercial banks continuously increased their holdings. - Local government bond custody continued to increase month - on - month. Policy banks significantly reduced their holdings, while commercial banks continuously increased their holdings. - Policy - financial bond custody changed to a reduction this month, with commercial banks being the main reduction entity. - Inter - bank certificate of deposit custody continued to increase month - on - month. Non - legal person products continuously increased their holdings, while commercial banks continuously reduced their holdings. - Corporate bond custody continued to decrease month - on - month, and all institutions showed a reduction in holdings. - Medium - term note custody continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continuously increased their holdings, while securities companies changed to a reduction in holdings. - Short - term financing and ultra - short - term financing custody changed to an increase this month, with non - legal person products being the main increase entity. - Non - publicly - oriented debt instrument custody continued to decrease month - on - month, with non - legal person products being the main reduction entity [3][27][28]. 3.2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bond Types - Treasury bonds: Commercial banks accounted for 66.78%, overseas institutions 6.27%, policy banks 11.40%, non - legal person products 8.54%, securities companies 3.29%, insurance institutions 2.59%, and credit unions 1.12% [33]. - Policy - financial bonds: Commercial banks accounted for 53.86%, non - legal person products 32.42%, overseas institutions 3.39%, credit unions 3.18%, insurance institutions 2.13%, securities companies 1.08%, and policy banks 3.94% [36]. - Local government bonds: Commercial banks accounted for 74.70%, non - legal person products 8.85%, policy banks 9.99%, insurance institutions 4.89%, securities companies 1.01%, credit unions 0.55%, and overseas institutions 0.02% [39]. - Corporate bonds: Non - legal person products accounted for 53.53%, commercial banks 33.04%, securities companies 8.98%, insurance institutions 3.27%, policy banks 0.75%, credit unions 0.35%, and overseas institutions 0.09% [41]. - Medium - term notes: Non - legal person products accounted for 61.79%, commercial banks 23.71%, securities companies 5.50%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.06%, policy banks 2.50%, insurance institutions 2.40%, overseas institutions 0.30%, others 0.48%, and credit unions 0.27% [42]. - Short - term financing and ultra - short - term financing: Non - legal person products accounted for 62.52%, commercial banks 21.02%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 6.74%, policy banks 4.84%, securities companies 4.45%, others 0.24%, credit unions 0.18%, overseas institutions 0.01%, and insurance institutions 0.00% [45]. - Non - publicly - oriented debt instruments: Non - legal person products accounted for 57.91%, commercial banks 26.11%, policy banks 1.28%, credit unions 2.08%, others 3.32%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 1.93%, securities companies 1.26%, overseas institutions 6.01%, and insurance institutions 0.11% [47]. - Inter - bank certificates of deposit: Non - legal person products accounted for 64.69%, commercial banks 27.84%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.31%, securities companies 0.84%, policy banks 2.05%, others 0.20%, insurance institutions 0.08%, credit unions 0.05%, and overseas institutions 0.94% [49]. 3.3 Observation of Bond Market Leverage Ratio - The balance of bonds to be repurchased decreased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio decreased month - on - month. As of the end of April 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - pledged repos was 105,472.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,780.97 billion yuan month - on - month. The leverage ratio was 106.71%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points month - on - month and 0.58 percentage points year - on - year [4][50].

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of the year, the funding environment has remained tight, particularly with a noticeable increase in short-term interest rates. The article explores the remaining government debt supply for the first quarter, the liquidity gap in March, and whether the funding situation will improve [1][4]. Group 1: Funding Tightness - The funding environment has been tight since the start of 2025, with the central bank increasing the scale of reverse repos. Despite this, the pressure on liquidity has slightly eased from January to February, with a reduction in liquidity stratification [1][4]. - The central bank's operations included a resumption of 14-day reverse repos before the Spring Festival, while the scale of medium-term lending facility (MLF) continued to decrease. The buyout reverse repo operations have provided significant support for medium to long-term liquidity [5][6]. Group 2: Government Debt Supply - In March, it is estimated that the issuance of government bonds will reach approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of nearly 650 billion yuan after accounting for 712.2 billion yuan in maturing bonds. Local government bonds are expected to total around 1.3 trillion yuan, resulting in a combined net financing scale of over 1.8 trillion yuan for government debt [2][14]. Group 3: Liquidity Outlook - The liquidity gap in March is projected to be around 260 billion yuan, indicating some pressure on the funding environment. However, after the "Two Sessions," funding rates are expected to trend towards easing, with the central bank's net injection likely to increase marginally [3][19]. - The article suggests that the central bank may primarily use buyout reverse repos to supplement medium to long-term liquidity during the phase of increased government debt supply, which could lead to a decrease in funding rates, especially for short-term bonds [19].