Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving strategies of Temu in response to changing market conditions and regulatory pressures, particularly focusing on its transition from a fully managed (全托管) model to a semi-managed (半托管) model, and the implications for cross-border e-commerce efficiency and competitiveness [3][10][20]. Group 1: Temu's Strategic Shifts - Temu has shifted from a fully managed model to a semi-managed model (Y2), where sellers are responsible for the initial logistics, reflecting a need to adapt to new market conditions and regulatory challenges [6][8]. - The introduction of Y2 aims to alleviate inventory pressure by allowing sellers to ship directly to overseas warehouses, but it also places the burden of customs clearance on sellers, which could lead to increased costs and operational challenges [9][10]. - Despite the return of the fully managed model (全托2.0), Temu continues to operate Y2, indicating an exploration of semi-managed models as a potential long-term strategy [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Temu's advertising cessation in the U.S. has led to a significant drop in app store rankings, impacting order volumes and seller confidence [9][13]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with platforms like SHEIN gaining market share and demonstrating stronger performance in advertising and consumer engagement, highlighting the challenges Temu faces in regaining lost market presence [14][18]. - The article notes that the small package direct mail model, which has driven growth in cross-border e-commerce, may be becoming less viable, necessitating a reevaluation of Temu's operational strategies [17][20]. Group 3: Seller Perspectives and Operational Challenges - Sellers express a preference for the fully managed model due to the operational simplicity it provides, contrasting with the complexities introduced by the Y2 model [10][12]. - The pressure on sellers to manage customs and logistics under the Y2 model raises concerns about cost burdens and potential delays, which could affect customer satisfaction and return rates [9][10]. - The article highlights that while Y2 offers flexibility, it may not be sustainable for all sellers, particularly those lacking experience in international logistics [10][12].

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of cross-border e-commerce, particularly focusing on the platform Temu and its recent operational adjustments in response to changing market conditions and regulatory pressures [1][9][14] Group 1: Temu's Operational Changes - Temu has shifted from a fully managed (全托) model to a semi-managed (Y2) model, where sellers are responsible for the initial logistics while the platform handles the final delivery [3][4][5] - The Y2 model aims to alleviate inventory pressure caused by rising costs, but it also places the burden of customs clearance on sellers, which has led to increased operational challenges [4][5][6] - Following the introduction of Y2, Temu quickly reverted to a new version of its fully managed model (全托2.0), indicating a need to adapt to market demands and seller preferences [3][8][10] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Seller Reactions - Sellers have expressed a preference for the fully managed model, as it allows them to operate with less logistical burden, highlighting a dependency on the platform for operational efficiency [7][8][13] - The decline in advertising and platform visibility has resulted in a significant drop in Temu's app rankings, affecting order volumes and seller confidence [6][12] - Sellers are facing increased costs and complexities under the Y2 model, leading to a higher return rate and dissatisfaction with the new operational structure [6][10][11] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Temu's adjustments come amid a competitive environment where other platforms like SHEIN and TikTok Shop are also exploring new operational models to maintain market share [15][17] - The article notes that the cross-border e-commerce landscape is shifting away from small package direct shipping and fully managed models, which have been the norm for the past several years [14][15] - Temu's ability to maintain low prices remains crucial for its competitive strategy, especially as it faces challenges in regaining market share in the U.S. [14][17]

Core Viewpoint - Temu has implemented a local warehousing strategy in the U.S. to mitigate the impact of regulatory changes, with significant inventory management efforts underway to adapt to market conditions [2][3]. Group 1: Warehousing Strategy - Temu's overseas front warehouse has officially started operations, with a substantial inventory prepared for three months of full custody in the U.S. [2] - Following the implementation of T86 on May 2, Temu ceased direct shipments from China to the U.S., resulting in a one-third reduction in traffic and a 50% decrease in daily GMV, although semi-custody GMV now accounts for 80% [2] - The front warehouse is managed by Temu itself, and its scale remains largely undisclosed, with estimates suggesting significant storage needs based on the top-selling products across thirteen categories [2] Group 2: Operational Adjustments - Temu has introduced upgraded operational models, including the Y2 and X2 modes, to lessen the impact of the full custody closure in the U.S. [3] - The X2 model is being slowly rolled out, offering merchants more favorable pricing and increased traffic, while the Y2 model has seen a decline in daily orders from over 50,000 to around 30,000 [3] - The company is also expanding its recruitment efforts for non-U.S. markets, particularly in Mexico, Australia, and Poland, to enhance its operational capabilities [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in the cross-border e-commerce landscape, particularly focusing on the impact of the T86 policy cancellation on different business models and the subsequent adjustments made by sellers in response to market dynamics [1][5][11]. Group 1: Impact of T86 Policy Cancellation - The cancellation of the T86 policy, which previously allowed for higher tax-free limits on low-value packages, has significantly affected platforms like Temu and Shein that relied on a full-service model [5][6]. - Sellers have shifted from a full-service model to a semi-service model, managing logistics and inventory themselves, which has led to a change in operational dynamics within the industry [3][5]. Group 2: Seller Adjustments and Market Dynamics - Sellers like Zhang Sheng have adapted by increasing inventory in overseas warehouses and returning to a more proactive management style, focusing on real-time monitoring and replenishment of popular products [3][5]. - The emergence of a "robust" market for cross-border e-commerce is noted, with sellers diversifying their strategies to reduce reliance on single platforms and exploring new markets, such as Latin America [6][11]. Group 3: Shipping and Logistics Trends - The logistics landscape has seen a significant increase in shipping demand, with inquiries rising by 300% as traditional foreign trade companies and cross-border e-commerce sellers rush to replenish stock [10]. - Despite the surge in shipping volume, sellers have not faced significant issues in securing shipping containers, indicating a resilient logistics network [10]. Group 4: Seller Experiences on Amazon - Amazon FBA sellers have reported a relatively stable shipping experience, with many opting for tax-inclusive shipping channels and preparing inventory well in advance of peak seasons [7][8]. - The overall impact of rising shipping costs has been manageable for sellers of lightweight products, allowing for flexible pricing strategies [7][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - There is optimism regarding the recovery of shipping capacity, with expectations that normal operations will resume as the market stabilizes [10][11]. - Cross-border e-commerce companies are encouraged to optimize logistics models and enhance product value to adapt to the evolving market conditions [11].

Core Insights - The high tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration are expected to significantly impact the clothing and textile industries, with short-term price increases of 87% for footwear and 65% for apparel, and long-term increases of 29% and 25% respectively [3][7]. Price Increases - Cross-border e-commerce platforms such as Temu, SHEIN, and Amazon have raised product prices due to the tariffs, with some items seeing price hikes of up to 100% [4]. - A specific example includes a dress on SHEIN that increased from $30 to $50, and a product on Temu that rose from $23 to $48.9 [4]. - Amazon has also reported an average price increase of nearly 30% across approximately 1,000 products since April 9, with notable increases in various categories including technology accessories and women's clothing [6]. Consumer Impact - The price hikes may lead to decreased sales volumes, as higher prices could result in increased customer dissatisfaction and return requests [5]. - Sellers are facing a dilemma with rising demand from U.S. customers while also contending with soaring logistics costs due to new tariffs [6]. Tariff Policy Changes - The U.S. government has raised the equal tax rate to 125% and imposed a total tariff of 145% on imports from China [8]. - Additionally, the exemption for small packages valued under $800 has been removed, with new tariffs set to take effect starting May 2 [11]. Industry Challenges - The high tariffs pose a significant challenge for cross-border e-commerce sellers, particularly those not dealing in high-margin products [9]. - The changes in tariff policy and logistics will directly affect platforms operating under a full-service model, as they rely on the previous "small package exemption" for imports [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of cross-border e-commerce platforms from China, highlighting the competitive dynamics among major players like Amazon, Temu, and Shein, particularly in the context of pricing strategies and market positioning [3][4][15]. Group 1: Competitive Landscape - The emergence of Amazon's low-price store, Haul, is a direct response to the competitive threat posed by Temu and Shein, which have gained significant traction in the U.S. market [4][15]. - Temu has rapidly become a popular choice among consumers, surpassing Walmart and Target in discussions within Amazon, indicating a shift in market focus [15][20]. - The competitive strategies of these platforms are shifting towards a focus on value and pricing, with Temu and Shein emphasizing cost-effectiveness while Amazon attempts to counteract with its own low-price offerings [13][25]. Group 2: Pricing Strategies and Market Changes - The introduction of the $800 small package exemption policy in the U.S. has significantly impacted the cost structure for cross-border e-commerce, leading to increased operational costs for platforms [11][34]. - As of 2024, Temu's global downloads reached 550 million, showcasing its rapid growth and consumer acceptance [20]. - The competitive environment is evolving, with platforms like AliExpress moving towards higher-priced goods, challenging Amazon's traditional pricing model [32][30]. Group 3: Market Expansion and Adaptation - Temu and Shein are expanding their market presence beyond the U.S., targeting Europe and Japan, while also re-entering Southeast Asia [41][42]. - The shift towards semi-managed models by platforms like Temu and Shein allows for the sale of higher-ticket items, indicating a diversification of product offerings [35][38]. - The article suggests that the future of cross-border e-commerce will focus on brand value and profitability rather than solely on low prices, marking a new phase in the competitive landscape [42].

出海电商是少数仍在快速发展的行业，所有人都按耐不住增长冲动。 编辑丨管艺雯 宋玮 如果说还有什么行业在 2024 年依然蓬勃发展，出海电商无疑是其中之一。看看几大玩家的交易额 增长目标就知道了。 它们分别是 233%、150%、125% 和 40%，对应 Temu、TikTok Shop、阿里海外电商和 Shein。 Temu 最激进，今年定下 600 亿美元交易额目标，是 2023 年 约 180 亿美元年销售额的 3.33 倍。 在风波中艰难前行的 TikTok Shop 去年交易额达到 200 亿美元，遂定下今年 500 亿美元目标。TikTok Shop 指站内交易的电商业务，不包括商家在站内打广告，导流到站外成交的部分。 阿里国际数字商业集团中的零售电商板块则定下 850 亿美元 - 900 亿美元目标。该板块两个主力业务 —— 速卖通、Lazada 去年交易额一共 400 亿美元，前者成立 14 年，后者被阿里收购 6 年，多年来业 绩稳定。 步伐较慢的是 Shein，也因其规模最大、做全品类最晚。2023 年，Shein 完成 450 亿美元销售额，首次 超过 Zara 母公司 Inditex ...