2025 年 4 月 25 日星期五 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 尿素： | | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 11 | | PTA： | | 12 | | 乙二醇： | | 12 | | 短纤： | | 13 | | 瓶片： | | 13 | | 纯碱： | | 13 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 14 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 15 | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | 21 | | 生猪： | | 22 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect increased volatility and remain cautious [6][7] - For stock indices, be optimistic about the long - term performance and wait for opportunities to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains strong, and previous long positions can be held [12][13][14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [15][16] - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [17][18][19] - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [20][21] - For ferroalloys, consider manganese silicon out - of - the - money call options at low levels and short - covering opportunities for silicon iron at the bottom, or consider out - of - the - money call options at low levels if there are large spot losses [22][23] - For crude oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [24][25][26] - For fuel oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [27][28][29] - For synthetic rubber, expect weak oscillations [30][31] - For natural rubber, expect weak oscillations [32][33] - For PVC, expect bottom oscillations [34][35][37] - For urea, expect short - term weakness [38][39] - For p - xylene (PX), expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and operate with caution [40][41] - For PTA, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [42] - For ethylene glycol, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [43][44] - For staple fiber, expect bottom adjustments following the cost side, and participate with caution [45] - For bottle chips, expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and pay attention to cost price changes [46][47] - For soda ash, expect short - term weakness [48] - For glass, expect a weak market sentiment [49] - For caustic soda, price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games, and beware of premature market movements [50][51] - For pulp, expect a weak and low - level repeated oscillation [52] - For lithium carbonate, expect a weak operation [53] - For copper, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [54][55] - For tin, expect price oscillations, control risks in the short term, and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56] - For nickel, control risks in the short term, and wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize [57] - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider short - selling at high levels on rebounds [58][59][60] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom support range [61][62] - For palm oil, remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [65][66] - For cotton, wait to short sell the far - month contract at high prices after a rebound [67][68][69] - For sugar, remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] - For apples, consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] - For live pigs, consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] - For eggs, wait for the release of the current market sentiment [81][82] - For corn, remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [85][86] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a differentiated close of Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts having different price changes. The central bank conducted 250.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6] Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw slight oscillations in stock index futures, with different changes in the main contracts of various indices [8][9] - The first - quarter fiscal revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 4.2%. In March, total social power consumption increased by 4.8% year - on - year [9] - Although there are concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts with different price changes. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold [12] - Be optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and previous long positions can be held [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Steel prices are at a low valuation, and the downward space may be limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products. Consider buying at low levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. Consider short - selling on rebounds [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw slight declines in the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. Consider options opportunities based on different situations [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC deepened its production - cut agreement. Consider a long - biased operation [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall. Asian fuel oil demand is unlikely to increase sharply. The sales of marine fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah Port recovered in March. Consider a long - biased operation as the market may be oscillating upward [27][28][29] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of synthetic rubber. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and it may maintain weak oscillations [30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw different price changes in the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. Global supply is expected to increase, demand is affected by tariffs, and it may maintain weak oscillations [32] PVC - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of PVC. Supply pressure eases marginally, demand recovers weakly, and it may oscillate at the bottom [34][35][37] Urea - The previous trading day saw an increase in the main contract of urea. In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Agricultural demand is in a lull, and new production capacity is being released [38] P - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX装置 maintenance and downstream PTA load reduction. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [40][41] PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PTA2509 main contract. Supply and demand fundamentals have few contradictions, and it may oscillate at the bottom [42] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of ethylene glycol. Supply improves due to coal - based plant maintenance, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [43][44] Staple Fiber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the staple fiber 2506 main contract. Downstream demand is weak, and it may adjust at the bottom following the cost side [45] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in the bottle chips 2506 main contract. Raw material prices fluctuate, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [46][47] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2509 contract of soda ash. Production and inventory are at high levels, and the market may remain weak in the short term [48] Glass - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the main 2509 contract of glass. A production line changed its product type. Production lines are at a low level, and inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [49] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the main 2505 contract of caustic soda. Production decreased last week, and demand has slightly improved. Price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games [50][51] Pulp - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of pulp. Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream开工 rates varied. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate. The trade tariff event affects demand, and supply remains high. It is expected to operate weakly [53] Copper - The previous trading day saw an upward oscillation in Shanghai copper. The price increased, and the spot market had limited supply. Consider a long - biased operation [54] Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in tin prices. The Bisie tin mine may resume operation, and Indonesian mining costs have increased. Consumption data is good, and prices are expected to oscillate [56] Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in nickel prices. The US tariff event has a negative impact on the market. Supply is tightened, and cost support is strong, but demand may weaken in the off - season [57] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Supply and demand are imbalanced, and prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [58][59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw declines in soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is abundant. Consider different strategies for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil had a slight decline. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. Remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian products, and domestic inventories are at high levels. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread [65][66] Cotton - The previous trading day saw a weak oscillation in domestic cotton. US cotton export sales increased, and the planting rate is lower than in previous years. Textile exports are affected by tariffs, and domestic demand is weak. Consider short - selling the far - month contract at high prices [67][68][69] Sugar - The previous trading day saw a strong oscillation in domestic sugar. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian sugar production was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is neutral, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures rise and then fall. Cold - storage inventory decreased rapidly, and the market sales are good. Consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] Live Pigs - The previous day saw a slight decline in the national average price of live pigs. Demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] Eggs - The previous trading day saw an increase in the average price of eggs in the main production areas. Egg production capacity is increasing, and consider waiting for the release of market sentiment [81][82] Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the corn main contract. The sales of the current season are almost over, and port inventory is high. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is slightly increasing. Remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of logs. A tropical cyclone may affect shipments. Inventory is relatively neutral, and beware of a rapid decline [85][86]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - China's equity market should not be overly bearish, and there is still long - term potential; long - term positions in gold can be held; long - term value of copper is promising; and different trading strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their fundamentals and market conditions [5][7][10] Summary by Categories Bonds and Equities - **Treasury Bonds and Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day saw a full - scale rise in stock index futures. Although the domestic economy is stable, tariffs disrupt the recovery rhythm, and there are concerns about corporate profit growth. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities [5][7] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's previous trading day saw a closing price of 789.22 with a 0.97% increase, and silver closed at 8,161 with a - 0.87% change. Powell warned about the inflation effect of Trump's trade policies. Global trade and financial uncertainties, along with potential central bank policy easing, are expected to drive up the price of gold. Long - term value of gold is still positive, and previous long positions can be held [9][10] Metals - **Copper**: Shanghai copper fluctuated and closed above the 5 - day average. The spot market had fair transactions. Given upcoming domestic market - stabilizing measures and the uncertainty of US copper - specific tariffs, investors can consider going long on Shanghai copper [49] - **Tin**: Tin fell 0.09% to 256,680/ton. The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) will resume operation, and Indonesia raised the tin ore royalty. With low domestic processing fees and tight raw material inventory, and good downstream production data, tin prices are expected to oscillate [51] - **Nickel**: Nickel rose 0.1% to 125,780 yuan/ton. US tariff events made the market pessimistic, but there is cost support from tightened mine supply policies in Indonesia and the Philippines. However, downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and demand may weaken in the off - season [52] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's main contract closed at 9015 yuan/ton with a - 0.93% change, and polysilicon closed at 39440 yuan/ton with a - 1.33% change. US tariffs have limited impact on the photovoltaic industry, but the market is pessimistic. Industrial silicon continues to bottom - out, and the polysilicon market faces challenges in inventory digestion [53][55] Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly corrected. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the peak - season demand provides short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and there are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can look for low - entry opportunities and set stop - profits [12][13] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures oscillated. High iron - water production boosts demand, and a decrease in imports and port inventory supports prices. Although the valuation is relatively high among black - series products, there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound. Low - entry opportunities can be considered [15] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures declined. Coking coal supply is loose, while coke demand from steel mills is increasing. Coke futures show signs of a stop - fall, and coking coal continues to decline. Low - entry opportunities can be considered with stop - loss and stop - profit settings [17][18] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon main contract fell 0.30% to 5870 yuan/ton, and silicon iron fell 1.15% to 5658 yuan/ton. Supply is high, and demand is weak. With the arrival of the steel - demand peak season, the supply - surplus situation is weakening. Opportunities for out - of - the - money call options in manganese silicon and exit opportunities for short - positions in silicon iron can be considered [20][21] Energy - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil oscillated upward due to the stalemate in Iran - US negotiations. Data shows changes in US oil futures positions, rig numbers, and OPEC+ production. The market is affected by OPEC's production increase and tariff policies. Short - long positions in the main crude - oil contract can be considered [22][23] - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling. Asian market supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. Trump's tariff suspension and the extension of sanctions on Russia may support fuel - oil prices. A long - biased operation on the main fuel - oil contract can be considered [24] Chemicals - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber's main contract fell 1.38%. Tariffs have a negative impact on cost and demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, with raw - material prices falling and supply increasing [26] - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber's main contract and 20 - grade rubber contract both fell. US tariffs impact the market from multiple aspects, and there is no short - term upward driver, but there may be a technical rebound. The market is expected to temporarily stabilize [29][30] - **PVC**: PVC's main contract fell 0.51%. US tariffs have limited impact on PVC trade. The market will continue the "weak reality vs. policy expectation" oscillation. Spring maintenance provides short - term support, but high inventory and weak demand are long - term pressures [31][32] - **Urea**: Urea's main contract fell 0.96%. It is currently in the agricultural - demand off - season. The market may oscillate before the summer - fertilizer demand starts, with supply remaining high and demand weakening [34][35] - **PX**: PX2509 main contract rose 0.1%. Due to increased device maintenance, PX load decreased. Tariff policies are changeable, and crude - oil prices oscillate. PX is expected to oscillate at a low level, and cautious operation is recommended [36][37] - **PTA**: PTA2509 main contract rose 0.23%. Supply decreased due to device maintenance, and demand was affected by tariff - related export blockages. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is advised [38] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol's main contract fell 0.96%. Supply decreased due to coal - based device shutdowns, and demand was weak due to tariffs. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and investors should pay attention to inventory and policy changes [39][40] - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber 2506 main contract rose 0.2%. Supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is weak. It will follow the cost - end adjustment at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [41] - **Bottle - Chip**: Bottle - chip 2506 main contract rose 0.76%. Raw - material prices are volatile, and the supply - demand fundamentals lack drivers. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, following the cost - end [42][43] - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash's main 2509 contract fell 0.07%. Production and inventory are at high levels, and demand is weak. The market will continue to be weak in the short term [44] - **Glass**: Glass's main 2509 contract fell 1.52%. There is no obvious supply - demand driver, and tariff - related news may affect downstream exports. The market sentiment is expected to be weak [45] - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's main 2505 contract rose 2.78%. Production decreased, and demand sentiment improved slightly. The price fluctuation depends on supply - demand competition, and potential concentrated maintenance should be watched [46] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp's main 2507 contract fell 0.71%. Inventory increased, and downstream production was mixed. Tariffs may restructure the import supply, and the market will oscillate at a low level [47] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate's main contract fell 0.4%. Tariffs increase market risk aversion, and the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. The price is expected to be weak [48] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal's main contract fell 0.76%, and soybean oil rose 0.83%. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is increasing. Soybean - oil consumption is growing, and soybean - meal demand is expected to increase slightly. Wait - and - see for soybean meal, and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil [57][58] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil fell for the fourth day. China's palm - oil imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [59][60] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices are affected by supply and demand. China imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products, and domestic inventory increased. Opportunities for widening the soybean - rapeseed spread can be considered [61][62] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated weakly. US cotton sales data is strong, and planting progress is reported. Tariffs disrupt the global economy and affect cotton demand. Domestic downstream demand is weakening. Short - positions in cotton can be gradually closed at low prices [63][66] - **Sugar**: Domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillated strongly, and overseas raw sugar oscillated at a low level. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian and Thai production data are available. The international raw - sugar market has mixed factors, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [68][71] - **Apple**: Apple futures rebounded slightly, and weekly inventory decreased rapidly. Cold - storage inventory is lower than last year, and sales are good. Buying on dips can be considered [73][74] - **Pigs**: The national average pig price rose slightly. The market is affected by supply, demand, and feed - cost expectations. Short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [75][77] - **Eggs**: Egg prices rose. Egg production is increasing, and it is in the consumption off - season. Feed - cost expectations may affect the market. Wait for market sentiment to be released [78][79] - **Corn**: Corn's main contract fell 0.17%. The domestic corn supply - surplus situation is easing, but short - term supply pressure remains due to high inventory and policy - related factors. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [80][81] - **Log**: The main 2507 log contract rose 0.18%. A tropical cyclone in New Zealand may affect log shipments. Current inventory is neutral, and there is a risk of price decline if the reality is weaker than expected [82][83]