Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the global economic growth is projected to be 2.7% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026, which is a downward revision from earlier estimates of 3.0% for both years [1] - Among 167 economists surveyed, 101 believe that the risk of a global recession is high, while 66 consider the risk to be low [1] - A significant majority of 292 out of 317 economists agree that tariffs have negatively impacted global business sentiment, with no respondents indicating a positive effect [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but the current Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level. It is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. After the event shock, the Chinese economy and Chinese assets will still operate according to their own laws. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long [9]. - The long - term value of gold is still optimistic. Temporarily take profit on previous long positions and then wait for opportunities to go long [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, investors can pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds, take profit in time, and pay attention to position management [14]. - For iron ore, investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities, take profit on rebounds, stop loss if it breaks through the previous low, and pay attention to position management [16]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds, take profit in time, and pay attention to position management [18]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on manganese silicon in the low - level range; for silicon iron, short - sellers in the bottom range can consider leaving the market, and also consider out - of - the - money call options in the low - level range if there is a large - scale spot loss [20][21]. - For crude oil, consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the main contract [25]. - For fuel oil, consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the main contract [27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [28]. - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [31]. - PVC is expected to maintain a shock at the bottom [33]. - Urea is expected to be weak in the short term [38]. - PX is expected to follow the cost - side shock adjustment, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [40][41]. - PTA is expected to run in a shock in the short term, and it is recommended to operate following the cost - side [42]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to run in a shock at the bottom in the short term, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [43][44]. - Short - fiber is expected to follow the cost - side shock adjustment in the short term, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [45]. - Bottle chips are expected to follow the cost - side shock operation, and pay attention to cost price changes [46]. - Soda ash is expected to continue to be weak in the short term [48]. - Glass is expected to be dominated by weak market sentiment [49]. - Caustic soda is expected to turn weak again [51]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate repeatedly at a relatively low level [52]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to run weakly [53][54]. - Copper is expected to have a strong trend, and it is recommended to operate long on the main contract of Shanghai copper [55][56]. - Tin is expected to run in a shock, and pay attention to controlling risks in the short term [57]. - Nickel is expected to continue the pattern of oversupply, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously in the short term [58]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short on high rebounds [59][60]. - For soybean meal, it is recommended to wait and see; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options in the bottom support range [63]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily [66]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [68]. - For cotton, it is recommended to short on high for the far - month contract after a rebound [70][71]. - For sugar, it is recommended to wait and see [74][75]. - For apples, consider going long on dips after a pullback [78]. - For live pigs, pay attention to taking profit on previous short positions [80]. - For eggs, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [83]. - For corn, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily [85]. - For logs, the spot transaction price is lightly traded, and the support for the disk is weak [86]. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 218 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2.75 billion yuan on the day. The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are low. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution should be maintained [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. Although the domestic economic recovery rhythm is disrupted by tariffs, the domestic asset valuation is low and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increasing risk of global economic recession, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. The long - term value of gold is still optimistic. Temporarily take profit on previous long positions and then wait for opportunities to go long [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may support the price in the short term. The valuation of steel prices is low, and there may be opportunities to short on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures回调 slightly. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and inventory support the price. The valuation is still the highest among black - series products. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to rebound. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. There may be opportunities to short on rebounds [18]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The increase in steel demand may drive the demand for ferroalloys. Consider opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on manganese silicon and leaving the market for silicon iron short - sellers [20][21]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated lower. There are mixed news in the energy market. The macro - level changes are large, and the resistance of Brent crude at $70 is strong. It is recommended to wait and see for the main contract [22][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated lower following crude oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil may gain upward momentum in the future, and the low - sulfur fuel oil may fluctuate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see for the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The supply pressure continues, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [28]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. It is expected to maintain a shock at the bottom [33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The agricultural demand will turn weak seasonally after May, and the supply pressure will increase. It is expected to be weak in the short term [38]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PX device is under centralized maintenance, and the downstream PTA start - up rate has increased. The short - term crude oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to follow the cost - side shock adjustment [40][41]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply increases, and the demand improvement is less than expected. The short - term PTA price may run in a shock, following the cost - side operation [42]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The coal - based device restarts, and the inventory is high. It is expected to run in a shock at the bottom in the short term [43][44]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The downstream terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost - side shock adjustment in the short term [45]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The raw material price has recovered, and the supply and demand fundamentals have improved slightly. It is expected to follow the cost - side shock operation [46]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is expected to continue to be weak in the short term [48]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, and the inventory changes little. Affected by tariffs, the market sentiment is expected to be weak [49]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. Some devices are under maintenance, and the comprehensive profit has improved slightly. It is expected to turn weak again [50][51]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures were flat. The inventory accumulates, and the downstream start - up rates vary. The market is lightly traded and is expected to oscillate at a low level [52]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose slightly. Affected by Sino - US trade tariffs, the demand may weaken, and the supply is high. It is expected to run weakly [53][54]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated lower. The global trade dispute eases, and the copper price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to operate long on the main contract [55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. Affected by tariffs, the price fluctuates greatly. The supply and demand factors are intertwined, and it is expected to run in a shock. Pay attention to controlling risks in the short term [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose slightly. Affected by tariffs, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The supply is tightened, and the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously in the short term [58]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures fell. The supply - demand imbalance is difficult to break through in the short term, and the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short on high rebounds [59][60]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The trade concern eases, and the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. For soybean meal, it is recommended to wait and see; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options in the bottom support range [61][62][63]. Palm Oil - On the previous trading day, palm oil futures were almost unchanged. The export volume increases, but the ringgit strengthens and the production increases. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [64][66]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, rapeseed - related products were affected by tariffs. The inventory changes vary. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [67][68]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. Affected by tariffs, the demand may be affected. The domestic downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to short on high for the far - month contract after a rebound [69][70][71]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fell slightly. The international and domestic sugar markets have different supply and demand situations. It is recommended to wait and see [72][74][75]. Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated at a high level. The inventory is low, and the consumption is good. The spot price is expected to be strong. Consider going long on dips after a pullback [76][77][78]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live - pig futures fell. The supply increases, and the demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to taking profit on previous short positions [79][80]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply increases, and it is the off - season for consumption. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [81][82][83]. Corn - On the previous trading day, corn futures rose. The supply pressure still exists in the short term, and the demand maintains a small increase. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [84][85]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures fell. The inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate market is in the destocking cycle. The spot transaction is light, and the support for the disk is weak [86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect increased volatility and remain cautious [6][7] - For stock indices, be optimistic about the long - term performance and wait for opportunities to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains strong, and previous long positions can be held [12][13][14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [15][16] - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [17][18][19] - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [20][21] - For ferroalloys, consider manganese silicon out - of - the - money call options at low levels and short - covering opportunities for silicon iron at the bottom, or consider out - of - the - money call options at low levels if there are large spot losses [22][23] - For crude oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [24][25][26] - For fuel oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [27][28][29] - For synthetic rubber, expect weak oscillations [30][31] - For natural rubber, expect weak oscillations [32][33] - For PVC, expect bottom oscillations [34][35][37] - For urea, expect short - term weakness [38][39] - For p - xylene (PX), expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and operate with caution [40][41] - For PTA, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [42] - For ethylene glycol, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [43][44] - For staple fiber, expect bottom adjustments following the cost side, and participate with caution [45] - For bottle chips, expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and pay attention to cost price changes [46][47] - For soda ash, expect short - term weakness [48] - For glass, expect a weak market sentiment [49] - For caustic soda, price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games, and beware of premature market movements [50][51] - For pulp, expect a weak and low - level repeated oscillation [52] - For lithium carbonate, expect a weak operation [53] - For copper, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [54][55] - For tin, expect price oscillations, control risks in the short term, and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56] - For nickel, control risks in the short term, and wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize [57] - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider short - selling at high levels on rebounds [58][59][60] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom support range [61][62] - For palm oil, remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [65][66] - For cotton, wait to short sell the far - month contract at high prices after a rebound [67][68][69] - For sugar, remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] - For apples, consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] - For live pigs, consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] - For eggs, wait for the release of the current market sentiment [81][82] - For corn, remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [85][86] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a differentiated close of Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts having different price changes. The central bank conducted 250.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6] Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw slight oscillations in stock index futures, with different changes in the main contracts of various indices [8][9] - The first - quarter fiscal revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 4.2%. In March, total social power consumption increased by 4.8% year - on - year [9] - Although there are concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts with different price changes. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold [12] - Be optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and previous long positions can be held [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Steel prices are at a low valuation, and the downward space may be limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products. Consider buying at low levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. Consider short - selling on rebounds [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw slight declines in the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. Consider options opportunities based on different situations [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC deepened its production - cut agreement. Consider a long - biased operation [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall. Asian fuel oil demand is unlikely to increase sharply. The sales of marine fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah Port recovered in March. Consider a long - biased operation as the market may be oscillating upward [27][28][29] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of synthetic rubber. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and it may maintain weak oscillations [30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw different price changes in the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. Global supply is expected to increase, demand is affected by tariffs, and it may maintain weak oscillations [32] PVC - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of PVC. Supply pressure eases marginally, demand recovers weakly, and it may oscillate at the bottom [34][35][37] Urea - The previous trading day saw an increase in the main contract of urea. In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Agricultural demand is in a lull, and new production capacity is being released [38] P - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX装置 maintenance and downstream PTA load reduction. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [40][41] PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PTA2509 main contract. Supply and demand fundamentals have few contradictions, and it may oscillate at the bottom [42] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of ethylene glycol. Supply improves due to coal - based plant maintenance, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [43][44] Staple Fiber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the staple fiber 2506 main contract. Downstream demand is weak, and it may adjust at the bottom following the cost side [45] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in the bottle chips 2506 main contract. Raw material prices fluctuate, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [46][47] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2509 contract of soda ash. Production and inventory are at high levels, and the market may remain weak in the short term [48] Glass - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the main 2509 contract of glass. A production line changed its product type. Production lines are at a low level, and inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [49] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the main 2505 contract of caustic soda. Production decreased last week, and demand has slightly improved. Price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games [50][51] Pulp - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of pulp. Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream开工 rates varied. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate. The trade tariff event affects demand, and supply remains high. It is expected to operate weakly [53] Copper - The previous trading day saw an upward oscillation in Shanghai copper. The price increased, and the spot market had limited supply. Consider a long - biased operation [54] Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in tin prices. The Bisie tin mine may resume operation, and Indonesian mining costs have increased. Consumption data is good, and prices are expected to oscillate [56] Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in nickel prices. The US tariff event has a negative impact on the market. Supply is tightened, and cost support is strong, but demand may weaken in the off - season [57] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Supply and demand are imbalanced, and prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [58][59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw declines in soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is abundant. Consider different strategies for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil had a slight decline. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. Remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian products, and domestic inventories are at high levels. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread [65][66] Cotton - The previous trading day saw a weak oscillation in domestic cotton. US cotton export sales increased, and the planting rate is lower than in previous years. Textile exports are affected by tariffs, and domestic demand is weak. Consider short - selling the far - month contract at high prices [67][68][69] Sugar - The previous trading day saw a strong oscillation in domestic sugar. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian sugar production was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is neutral, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures rise and then fall. Cold - storage inventory decreased rapidly, and the market sales are good. Consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] Live Pigs - The previous day saw a slight decline in the national average price of live pigs. Demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] Eggs - The previous trading day saw an increase in the average price of eggs in the main production areas. Egg production capacity is increasing, and consider waiting for the release of market sentiment [81][82] Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the corn main contract. The sales of the current season are almost over, and port inventory is high. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is slightly increasing. Remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of logs. A tropical cyclone may affect shipments. Inventory is relatively neutral, and beware of a rapid decline [85][86]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - China's equity market should not be overly bearish, and there is still long - term potential; long - term positions in gold can be held; long - term value of copper is promising; and different trading strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their fundamentals and market conditions [5][7][10] Summary by Categories Bonds and Equities - **Treasury Bonds and Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day saw a full - scale rise in stock index futures. Although the domestic economy is stable, tariffs disrupt the recovery rhythm, and there are concerns about corporate profit growth. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities [5][7] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's previous trading day saw a closing price of 789.22 with a 0.97% increase, and silver closed at 8,161 with a - 0.87% change. Powell warned about the inflation effect of Trump's trade policies. Global trade and financial uncertainties, along with potential central bank policy easing, are expected to drive up the price of gold. Long - term value of gold is still positive, and previous long positions can be held [9][10] Metals - **Copper**: Shanghai copper fluctuated and closed above the 5 - day average. The spot market had fair transactions. Given upcoming domestic market - stabilizing measures and the uncertainty of US copper - specific tariffs, investors can consider going long on Shanghai copper [49] - **Tin**: Tin fell 0.09% to 256,680/ton. The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) will resume operation, and Indonesia raised the tin ore royalty. With low domestic processing fees and tight raw material inventory, and good downstream production data, tin prices are expected to oscillate [51] - **Nickel**: Nickel rose 0.1% to 125,780 yuan/ton. US tariff events made the market pessimistic, but there is cost support from tightened mine supply policies in Indonesia and the Philippines. However, downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and demand may weaken in the off - season [52] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's main contract closed at 9015 yuan/ton with a - 0.93% change, and polysilicon closed at 39440 yuan/ton with a - 1.33% change. US tariffs have limited impact on the photovoltaic industry, but the market is pessimistic. Industrial silicon continues to bottom - out, and the polysilicon market faces challenges in inventory digestion [53][55] Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly corrected. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the peak - season demand provides short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and there are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can look for low - entry opportunities and set stop - profits [12][13] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures oscillated. High iron - water production boosts demand, and a decrease in imports and port inventory supports prices. Although the valuation is relatively high among black - series products, there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound. Low - entry opportunities can be considered [15] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures declined. Coking coal supply is loose, while coke demand from steel mills is increasing. Coke futures show signs of a stop - fall, and coking coal continues to decline. Low - entry opportunities can be considered with stop - loss and stop - profit settings [17][18] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon main contract fell 0.30% to 5870 yuan/ton, and silicon iron fell 1.15% to 5658 yuan/ton. Supply is high, and demand is weak. With the arrival of the steel - demand peak season, the supply - surplus situation is weakening. Opportunities for out - of - the - money call options in manganese silicon and exit opportunities for short - positions in silicon iron can be considered [20][21] Energy - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil oscillated upward due to the stalemate in Iran - US negotiations. Data shows changes in US oil futures positions, rig numbers, and OPEC+ production. The market is affected by OPEC's production increase and tariff policies. Short - long positions in the main crude - oil contract can be considered [22][23] - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling. Asian market supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. Trump's tariff suspension and the extension of sanctions on Russia may support fuel - oil prices. A long - biased operation on the main fuel - oil contract can be considered [24] Chemicals - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber's main contract fell 1.38%. Tariffs have a negative impact on cost and demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, with raw - material prices falling and supply increasing [26] - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber's main contract and 20 - grade rubber contract both fell. US tariffs impact the market from multiple aspects, and there is no short - term upward driver, but there may be a technical rebound. The market is expected to temporarily stabilize [29][30] - **PVC**: PVC's main contract fell 0.51%. US tariffs have limited impact on PVC trade. The market will continue the "weak reality vs. policy expectation" oscillation. Spring maintenance provides short - term support, but high inventory and weak demand are long - term pressures [31][32] - **Urea**: Urea's main contract fell 0.96%. It is currently in the agricultural - demand off - season. The market may oscillate before the summer - fertilizer demand starts, with supply remaining high and demand weakening [34][35] - **PX**: PX2509 main contract rose 0.1%. Due to increased device maintenance, PX load decreased. Tariff policies are changeable, and crude - oil prices oscillate. PX is expected to oscillate at a low level, and cautious operation is recommended [36][37] - **PTA**: PTA2509 main contract rose 0.23%. Supply decreased due to device maintenance, and demand was affected by tariff - related export blockages. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is advised [38] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol's main contract fell 0.96%. Supply decreased due to coal - based device shutdowns, and demand was weak due to tariffs. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and investors should pay attention to inventory and policy changes [39][40] - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber 2506 main contract rose 0.2%. Supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is weak. It will follow the cost - end adjustment at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [41] - **Bottle - Chip**: Bottle - chip 2506 main contract rose 0.76%. Raw - material prices are volatile, and the supply - demand fundamentals lack drivers. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, following the cost - end [42][43] - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash's main 2509 contract fell 0.07%. Production and inventory are at high levels, and demand is weak. The market will continue to be weak in the short term [44] - **Glass**: Glass's main 2509 contract fell 1.52%. There is no obvious supply - demand driver, and tariff - related news may affect downstream exports. The market sentiment is expected to be weak [45] - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's main 2505 contract rose 2.78%. Production decreased, and demand sentiment improved slightly. The price fluctuation depends on supply - demand competition, and potential concentrated maintenance should be watched [46] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp's main 2507 contract fell 0.71%. Inventory increased, and downstream production was mixed. Tariffs may restructure the import supply, and the market will oscillate at a low level [47] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate's main contract fell 0.4%. Tariffs increase market risk aversion, and the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. The price is expected to be weak [48] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal's main contract fell 0.76%, and soybean oil rose 0.83%. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is increasing. Soybean - oil consumption is growing, and soybean - meal demand is expected to increase slightly. Wait - and - see for soybean meal, and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil [57][58] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil fell for the fourth day. China's palm - oil imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [59][60] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices are affected by supply and demand. China imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products, and domestic inventory increased. Opportunities for widening the soybean - rapeseed spread can be considered [61][62] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated weakly. US cotton sales data is strong, and planting progress is reported. Tariffs disrupt the global economy and affect cotton demand. Domestic downstream demand is weakening. Short - positions in cotton can be gradually closed at low prices [63][66] - **Sugar**: Domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillated strongly, and overseas raw sugar oscillated at a low level. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian and Thai production data are available. The international raw - sugar market has mixed factors, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [68][71] - **Apple**: Apple futures rebounded slightly, and weekly inventory decreased rapidly. Cold - storage inventory is lower than last year, and sales are good. Buying on dips can be considered [73][74] - **Pigs**: The national average pig price rose slightly. The market is affected by supply, demand, and feed - cost expectations. Short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [75][77] - **Eggs**: Egg prices rose. Egg production is increasing, and it is in the consumption off - season. Feed - cost expectations may affect the market. Wait for market sentiment to be released [78][79] - **Corn**: Corn's main contract fell 0.17%. The domestic corn supply - surplus situation is easing, but short - term supply pressure remains due to high inventory and policy - related factors. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [80][81] - **Log**: The main 2507 log contract rose 0.18%. A tropical cyclone in New Zealand may affect log shipments. Current inventory is neutral, and there is a risk of price decline if the reality is weaker than expected [82][83]

2025 年 4 月 11 日星期五 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 铜： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 19 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 21 | | 白糖： | | 22 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米： | | 24 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘涨跌不一，30 年期主力合约跌 0.24%报 119.87 元，10 年期主力合约持平报 109.035 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 106.5 元，2 年期主力合 约涨 0.03%报 102.702 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，4 月 10 ...